Mass valuation, pollution and health effects analysis decision support system

Transcription

1 Mass valuation, pollution and health effects analysis decision support system Prof. PhD. Dr.Sc. A.Kaklauskas, Chairman of the Department of Construction Economics and Real Estate Management, Vice-director of Institute of Internet and Intelligent Technologies, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Sauletekio al. 11, 2054 Vilnius, Lithuania,

2 Real Estate s Market Value, Pollution and Health Effects Analysis Decision Support System consists of Market Value Analysis Subsystem, Air Pollution, Premises Microclimate Analysis Subsystem, Health Effects Subsystem, Biometrics Subsystem, Cooperative Decision Making Subsystem, Multiple User Subsystem.

3 Biometrics Subsystem

4 Concealment of the truth or providing doubtful information is a rather complicated act: you need to think of several alternatives, to analyse them, to make the best decision. Therefore, your brain is engaged in intensive work. This is because telling of the truth is a natural thing, thus, extra efforts will be needed on purpose to conceal it. Client tells the truth Information provided by the client is doubtful Voice stress diagrams

5 Face recognition, voice stress and eye iris analysis systems may be applied to different activities of real estate sector, such as: approximate assessment of a real estate; comparison of alternatives; banking, selection of a broker, facilities manager; renovation of a building; real estate sale, purchase, lease; negotiations on different issues; insurance services; selection of a recreational or residential location (sanatorium; wellness centre, nursing home) for elderly people; financial leasing services; job search; facilities management services; analysis of the market situation, its changes and forecasts; etc

6 A short conversation between seller and buyer of real estate Good day, can we help you? (1) Good day, we are planning to sell a house (2) Can you briefly describe the house you intend to sell? (3) The second floor is partially furnished, there s no basement (4) How many floors are there? (5) Two floors and a mansard (6) The house is partially furnished or unfinished to build? (7) I guess, I can say that it is unfinished to arrange (8) What kind of external finish is required? (9) We planned to have wooden planks and blocks are still needed, but, certainly, everyone can judge individually here (10) What do you think, what investments still may be required for the external furnish? (11) I think about fifty thousand litas (12) Does this include only work or materials too? (13) Total price (14) Is the roofing finished? (15) The roof is ready for covering, we have the materials, and it will be covered soon (16) How soon are you planning to sell the house? (17) The sooner, the better, of course (18) How many and what rooms are completely furnished? (19) A kitchen, a toilet, a bathroom and a bedroom. Two rooms are partially furnished; the remaining ones are ready for painting. (20) What kind of windows are there? (21) Plastic, one- and two-chamber windows (22) What kind of heating system is there? (23) The heating system is mixed floor heating and radiators. Solid fuel heating; there s also a possibility of electric heating (24) Is there gas? (25) There s no gas (26) What are the possibilities of transition from solid fuel to gas heating? (27) There s such a possibility, but you simply need to apply to the organization that lays gas pipelines, as the gas line is close. But, certainly, in this case, you need to change the present boiler (28) How many square meters are there? (29) About two hundred square meters (30) How many wc-units? (31) Four (32) Have you got a plan of the house? (33) Currently accurate cadastral measurements are being carried out (34) Is there a garage? (35) There s no garage, but there s a summerhouse, roof (36) What is the area of the land plot? (37) About sixteen and a half ares (38) Is there an asphalted road leading to the plot, is the leading road in a good condition? (39) Yes, the road is completely arranged, asphalted up to the house (40) How many kilometres are there to the centre of Vilnius? (41) Twenty-five, maybe thirty (42) What is the distance to the nearest neighbour? (43) Twenty meters (44) Does the land plot include forest, if yes, how much? (45) Yes, it includes about three ares (46) What price do you expect? (47) Well, we d like to get about five hundred thousand litas (48)

7 Positive voice data diagram (the client tells the truth) Negative voice data diagram (information provided by the client is doubtful)

8 It looks like the conversation was simple, however, when the question number 37 was put, the response (response 38) reflects a change in the voice diagram. The question was about the area of the land plot; at first glance it is a very frequent and simple question. Having received the results, it was considered that the detector has also fixed the background noise. However, having analysed the house documentation, it emerged that the house was built on a yet not landscaped plot, and there are no any accurate measurements performed. In fact, the area of the plot is about 14 ares. Thus, no possible assistance was provided for this client until the documentation of the land plot was in order.

9 The relationship between the deviation from the real area of apartment deliberately increased by the seller (in per cent) and the average microtremor frequency of the voice when claiming bigger floor area. The x-axis shows the deviation (in per cent) of the increased area of the apartment (compared to the real) specified by the seller during the conversation. The y-axis shows the scale of the average microtremor frequency noticed in the seller s voice during the conversation. The higher the average microtremor frequency the more area is added to the real area of an apartment , ,5 10 9,5 Hz 9 8,5 8 7,5 7 6, %

10 In the future there will be a possibility to assess correctness of provided information (in %) automatically by using System on the basis of accumulated historic statistical data and determined regression equation. For example, according to a unhappy taxpayer s answer about the floor area of an apartment, the System would automatically convert the answer into frequency and specify the actual floor area of an apartment and the percentage of deviation from the floor area of the apartment as specified by a unhappy taxpayer.

11 Correlation of relationships between emotional stress and rational answers about mass valuation value 20,0 12,00 18,0 11,50 16,0 14,0 11,00 12,0 10,50 total 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0, ,00 9,50 9,00 8,50 8,00 frq Linear (frq) Linear (total)

12 Supposedly, in the future, taking into consideration the determined interdependences obtained by statistical data, employing the voice analysis subsystem, an automatic determination of the mass valuation value will be possible.

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14 Correlation of relationships between Iris diameter and mass valuation value ,84 1,83 1,82 balai ,81 1,80 1,79 1,78 1,77 1,76 vyzdžio diametras klausimai ,75

15 Future developments

16 Visual Recognition Systems

17 Eye-tracking systems

18 Eyetracking systems

19 Device Subsystem Device Subsystem can get information about: pollution and noise of built environment; the indoor microclimate parameters (volume flow, air velocity, air temperature, relative humidity, dew point temperature, vibration impulse amplitudes); allergens causing allergy in the dwelling (house dust mites and dermatophagoides pteronysinus allergen etc.).

20 Outdoor air pollution may cause health effects: - respiratory effects, - cardiovascular effects, - cancer, - reproductive and developmental effects, - neurological effects, - mortality, - infection and other health effects). Air pollution causes large increases in medical expenses, morbidity and is estimated to cause about 800,000 annual premature deaths worldwide. Levels of priority air pollutants often exceed these limits in many parts of the world, especially in large cities. Above and other problems are related with built environment air pollution, premises microclimate, health effects, real estate market value, etc.

21 Particle Pollution in US

22 Fragment of diagrams of indoor microclimate

23 Fragment of diagrams of thermography

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25 Change of the concentration level of carbon monoxide (left) and volatile organic compounds in Antakalnis-Zirmunai Districts (right)

26 Pollution, Air Quality Index and health effects digital maps

27 Decision Support Subsystem

28 New Multiple Criteria Analysis Methods Developed by Author - In order to find what price will make a real estate being valuated competitive on the market a method of determining the utility degree and market value of real estate based on the complex analysis of all their benefits and drawbacks was developed. According to this method the real estate utility degree, the market and mass values of a real estate being estimated are directly proportional to the system of the criteria adequately describing them and the values and weights of these criteria. - A new method of complex determination of the weight of the criteria taking into account their quantitative and qualitative characteristics was developed. This method allows to calculate and coordinate the significances of the quantitative and qualitative criteria according to the above characteristics. - A new method of multiple criteria complex proportional evaluation of the real estate enabling the user to obtain a reduced criterion determining complex (overall) efficiency of the real estate was developed. This generalized criterion is directly proportional to the relative effect of the values and weights of the criteria considered on the efficiency of the project.

29 Initial data for calculation of 2-room apartments mass appraisal value: upper part of matrix (left); lower part of matrix (right)

30 Search results for a specific real estate alternative can be submitted in textual, photo/video, graphical and quantitative forms

31 Calculation of the real estate priority, utility degree and market value

32 Calculation of the real estate market and mass value

33 Negotiation Process

34 Case Study

35 Analysis of Pollution Digital Maps, Scenic Values, Indoor Microclimate and Allergens allow to perform a more Precise Mass Valuation of Land

36 One of the purpose of the case study is to examine how real estate market and mass valuation values vary in Zirmunai and Antakalnis district subject to: air and noise pollution, voltage power lines, scenic and greenery values, indoor microclimate and allergens, influence of inhabitants subjective expectations.

37 Voltage power lines Areas near high voltage power lines are found to, on average, have a market value of about 10% less than comparable properties that are farther away. Scenic Neris River and Greenery Value Research have shown that scenic Neris river and greenery value added 8% to the market price of a flat. Indoor microclimate and allergens We measure internal microclimate parameters (illumination, volume flow, air velocity, air temperature, relative humidity, dew point temperature, vibration impulse amplitudes) and house allergens, e.g. house dust mites, dermatophagoides pteronysinus allergen, etc.

38 Analysis of stakeholders subjective opinions about qualitative criteria (pollution and health effects, scenic and greenery values, etc.) by using voice stress analysis

39 Analysis of stakeholders subjective opinions about qualitative criteria - Even 87.3 percent of residents stated that the noise coming from the outside or neighbouring flats disturbs them (even when the windows are closed) % of men and 28.9% of women stated that they face problems related to air quality in a flat % of the respondents think that they had health disorders and illnesses, which, in their opinion, may be related to the accommodation itself.

40 Experiments have shown that humans perceive a reduction of sound by 10 db as if the noise level decreases twice. Therefore, we can claim that the noise level decreases up to eight times in the places farthest from the street ,4 66,4 65,2 61,3 Noise db Pjūvis D-D Pjūvis E-E Atstumas, m

41 Increasing price of 1 m2 of an apartment for sale with increasing distance from the street in 2006

42 Factors under analysis Year of construction Number of floors Noise CO Solid particles NO2 Aesthetic environment: this criterion assesses aesthetics of the environment, quality of landscaping and green areas. Street: this criterion shows whether a building is close to the street Car parking lot: to assess whether there is a small parking lot or it is missing altogether

43 Factors under analysis Recreation area: to assess whether a developed recreation area is near to the analysed building: playgrounds, basketball fields, benches, etc. Renovation: whether the building is or is not renovated Access Lighting: to assess whether remote streets (away from the main street) have lighting Construction works: this criterion is used to assess whether new construction works are underway near the building Retail park: to assess whether there are retail parks and shops near the building Kindergarten, school: to assess whether a school or a kindergarten is near the building

44 Change of the concentration level of particle pollution (left) and the noise level in Antakalnis-Zirmunai Districts (right)

45 The zones of concentration of CO (left) and NO2 (right) pollution dangerous to people with respiratory disorders and asthma

46 Apartments selling-buying prices in 2002 year Apartments selling-buying prices in 2003 year

47 Apartments selling-buying prices in 2004 year Apartments selling-buying prices in 2005 year

48 Apartments selling-buying prices in 2006 year

49 Knowledge Subsystem Stakeholder oriented information rules and procedures allow to develop and maintain personalized objectives, preferences, and evaluation criteria for analysing real estate. Formation of the criteria describing the alternatives. This category consists of rule sets for the formation of the system of criteria that describe the alternatives and provides values and weights of these criteria. Development of suggestions with what stakeholder to use and for what reasons further negotiation should be carried out. With the help of a decision support subsystem having determined the sequence of priority then the degree of utility and market value of the real estate, the rules in knowledge subsystem suggests with what stakeholder to use and for what reasons further negotiation should be carried out.

50 Knowledge Subsystem Composition of a comprehensively reasoned negotiation for stakeholders. By using information inherited from the previous RE-DSS calculations and predefined rules and procedures, the knowledge subsystem composes of a negotiation for the stakeholders, where it reasonably suggests that the market aor mass value should be decreased or increased. The e- mail includes references to the calculations performed by LMAS-LT.

51 Knowledge Subsystem Market Signalling Subsystem. Links to sites with exhaustive information and analytic reviews about the situation in the Lithuanian real estate market and about its development perspectives is provided, information and forecasts on the market situation and its changes, etc.

52 Major System functions include: creating and maintaining stakeholder s personalized real estate objectives, preferences, and evaluation criteria; participation of various stakeholders (taxpayers, brokers, taxation institutes, etc.) in joint determination of criteria (criteria system, values and weights) defining real estate; market signalling; provide device-based and knowledge-based data about outside pollution, indoor microclimates and allergens causing allergy in buildings;

53 Major System functions include: searching for real estate alternatives; finding alternatives and making an initial negotiation table; calculation of the real estate priority, utility degree and market value; making electronic negotiations based on real calculations and determining the most correct real estate value; determining the mass value of real estate

54 Input Data and Knowledge Supply price of real estate. Building qualities (number of stories in a building, premises are in the storey, total area, year of construction, architectural style and view, state (deteroration and obsolescence), constructions, layout, comfort, security, quality of decoration (interior and external), thermical insulation). Land characteristics (size and shape of a plot, buildup area of a plot of land, soil quality, etc). Engineering systems (water supply, sewerage, gas, electricity, heating, telephone). Environmental pollution (air pollution, sound, transport flow), Transport information.

55 Input Data and Knowledge Infrastructure of culture and education Health and social care infrastructure City greenery and recreation infrastructure Industrial territories Commercial territories Dwelling territory District prestige Location of a place in a district, Parking Security