5 Our Journey Begins 86 years in the making Caspar G Haas 1922 Sales Prices as a Basis for Estimating Farmland Value
9 Starting at the beginning. Mass Appraisal and Single Property Appraisal
10 Appraisal History Mass vs Single Property Appraisal Similarities Both Applied Economic Analysis USPAP Overseeing Professional Bodies (AI vs IAAO) Differences Scale Quality Control
11 Appraisal History (2) Development of AVMs Mass Appraisal Applications since 1970 s Large Urban Assessment Offices University Main Frames Fee Appraisal Side Rejected Assessor s Database Initially Not Practical Used Other Methods Matched Pair Analysis Manual Adjustments Cost Approach DCF for Income Approach
12 Appraisal History (3) 1990 to Present Computer PC Revolution Internet USPAP Software Private Sector AVM Development
13 Appraisal History (4) Private Sector AVMs Mostly Residential Mostly Regression Based Some Modeled after Assessor Mostly Assessor Data Large Corporate Development Fixed or Adjustable Internet Applications
14 Appraisal History (cont) Current State Residential in Flux Role of Statistical Driven versus Appraisal Driven Models IAAO and AI Individual Appraiser
15 Everyone s Goal: Whole Market Analysis
16 The Drive Towards Better Analysis Relating the 1004 MC to this process How we will all need to know more about data, our markets, trends, etc in the (very near) future Hopefully, when we pull the data, we will know the relevance
17 STEP 1: SELECT ALL MARKET DATA
18 STEP 2: DEFINE MARKET AREA
19 STEP 3: SELECT AND MODEL ALL PROPERTIES IN DEFINED MARKET AREA
20 STEP 4: SELECT MOST COMPARABLE DATA FOR FINAL ADJUSTMENTS
21 Whole Market Analysis Previously Limited data Powerful valuation methods to deal with limited data Valuation theories developed Some computer applications and modeling developed over time
22 Now Too much data (not really) Enhanced methodologies Statistical modeling Software (Excel, SPSS, etc) Modify valuation theories Based on current foundation Not as radical as change in valuation methods
23 Appraisers build an actual model that predicts sales prices based on the sales considered in the analysis they are able to determine how accurate the valuation conclusions are for the assembled sales.
24 Figuring Out the Rules: Data and Central Tendency The Normal Distribution Measuring the Spread
25 Appraiser determines the contributory value of each significant component of value, such as gross living area, bathrooms, garages etc.
27 Regression Analysis Regression analysis is used to: Predict the value of a dependent variable based on the value of at least one independent variable Explain the impact of changes in an independent variable on the dependent variables
28 Regression Tied to Appraisal Square Footage and Sales Price The greater the square footage-the greater the sales price (hedonic; hedonism) One causes the other We get this because we are appraisers
29 SALES PRICE Simple Regression Simple Regression includes one Dependent Variable (sales price) and only one Independent Variable - such as Square Footage Using this model, a 1,000 sf home would be valued at $75,000 HEATED AREA
30 Simple Regression Simple Regression using only size as the independent variable will predict sales prices, however, it will treat all homes with the same size equally. 1,000 square feet - $75,000 1,000 square feet - $75,000?
31 What Regression Requires Skills in Statistical Interpretation Mean Median Standard Error Variance Significance Level Confidence Intervals
32 Components of value Looking at a SFR What are the components that contribute to value?
33 Components of Value
34 Regression Components Dependent Variable: Sales Price Independent Variables: Size Age Location Condition Lot size Construction Quality Amenities
35 Regression Models Another way to look at regression is to think of it as a complex paired sales analysis. Just with the paired sales analysis, regression is comparing sold properties to determine the differences in characteristics and how much was paid.
36 What is a Model, Anyway? Valuation Factors (i.e., Coefficients) Value Gross living area $105 per square foot Number of bathrooms $3,500 per bathroom Garage parking $4,000 per car space Basement area $50 per square foot Finished basement $20 per square foot Ranch style $25,000, if ranch Air-conditioning $3,500, if yes Number of fireplaces $20,000 per FP
37 Estimating Values Property values can be estimated based on a regression model based on a sample of previously sold properties An appraiser can predict a value for the dependent variable (sale price) based on the known value of the causal (independent) variables Mass appraisal/ad valorem history
38 More Regression models produce average, or typical values, consistent with the definition of market value. There is a great deal of similarity between regression and traditional appraisal; when appraisers use a weighted average to arrive at a final value estimate-they are effectively applying the assumption of regression to the mean!
39 The Benefits of Regression Regression can be used to determine total property values; or more critically, estimate the individual components of value, e.g: Value of a bathroom Value of a garage Value of square footage
40 Regression is essentially a variation of the sales comparison approach to value Similar to matched pair analysis Results are estimates of he average opinion of the market Both techniques should produce the same outcomes
41 A thought: Think of regression as matched pairs on steroids
42 Where Regression is Similar Judgment required in both Regression requires appraiser s knowledge to interpret
43 How They Differ Traditional Appraisal Point estimate of value (often central tendency) Generally no range around the point estimate Regression Point estimate of value AND Objectively determined measure of dispersion around the point estimate Standard Deviation Standard Error
44 More Differences Regression relies on secondary data (data directly drawn from the market, vs. data drawn exclusively from the appraiser) The appraiser still must interpret, however
47 Moving from Valuation Infrastructure of the Past
48 All of Us Have a Shared and Inseparable Fate Really a vested interest in the health of the appraisal profession How do you solve the problems of inferior valuation alternatives such as BPOs or inspection enhanced AVMs? Not by legislation alone Not by regulation alone You need a market alternative- A market-based solution
49 Gord Nixon, CEO RBC Developing new products to find better and less expensive ways to service your customer-that is innovation
50 The Future Is Not About.. Faster form filling Shorter forms AVM hybrids Credible Appraisals Transparent Appraisals Consistent Appraisals Redefining what the appraisal process SHOULD be
51 The Future Is about interactivity The interaction between data, analytics and the appraiser/analyst It is about the re-invention of appraisal (or how about the re-imagining of appraisal?)
52 What are the dynamics of this process? The solution includes Local appraiser Enabled with data Empowered with analytic tool sets Supportable valuation, delivered quickly
53 Lenders Face New Choices Lenders and servicers have choices: An AVM derivative Is your appraisal really an AVM? Authentic Valuation performed by an experienced appraiser What we need to offer is the next generation of valuation-that meets all Interagency guidelines and does it the right way
54 Pseudo Valuation It s a jungle out there There are a lot of products in the market that look remarkably like appraisals Interagency Guidelines and the explosion of product
57 Predictions Lenders will want more analysis Regression will become the new standard in analysis We will have more data than ever before We will need tools to analyze this data Tools will require training Appraisers need to understand what will be required Appraisers will be called upon to understand what tools are appropriate
61 The Emergence of Best in Class Solutions Interactive Valuation Products Interactive Data-rich Statistically-supported Appraisals Superior to existing product offerings by nonappraisers Cost competitive
62 What Does Interactivity Look Like? Starts with integrated data Defined by the appraiser Controlled by appraiser Powerful tool set Regression analysis The final valuation is driven and accepted by the appraiser
63 Distinguishing Characteristics The appraiser attains mastery training in statistics and regression Experienced appraisers at the local level Neighborhood-level analysis driven by a local expert Robust data delivered to the appraiser s desktop The final valuation is a reconciliation of the regression, direct sales comparison and listing data
64 Defining the neighborhood-identifying the influences that are most critical in influencing value-drawing boundaries and considering external influences on the subject property
65 In the neighborhood analysis, all of the 1004 MC characteristics plus a spatial display of data
66 Information on sales, listings, absorption and the general state of the market at the neighborhood level is presented..
67 The heart of the application is the regression analysis, which begins with a listing of all of the sales and all of their relevant characteristics. The application scores each sale on a scale of , ranking each sale that is most comparable to the subject property, comparing location, size, age, # of baths and so on. Once the information is reviewed by the appraiser-regression analysis is run
68 Appraisers are trained to understand and use regression analysis
69 Appraisers build an actual model that predicts sales prices based on the sales considered in the analysis they are able to determine how accurate the valuation conclusions are for the assembled sales.
70 They can examine the model output, the amount of data and other relevant factors and comment on the valuation conclusions..
71 Appraiser determines the contributory value of each significant component of value, such as gross living area, bathrooms, garages etc.
72 Sales are ranked and displayed; adjustments drawn from the regression
73 In a similar fashion, listings drawn from the neighborhood are displayed, adjusted and utilized to gain a sense of the current market in real time.
74 Appraiser reconciles all value indications and concludes a value
75 The final Collateral Valuation Report generated by the application provides a supportable valuation estimate for the client, validated and derived by the appraiser, empowered by the data, the analysis and the powerful regression tools. The final result can be relied upon by the client for lending decisioning.
76 Rebuilding Confidence When you combine Local Appraisal Expertise Data and Interactive Analytic Tools You get Transparent Supportable Credible Accurate
77 At the end of the day. Remaining relevant Providing value to clients/stakeholders/the public Leveraging market knowledge Providing innovative solutions Better appraisals That is how our profession survives and prospers This is a battle for the future of valuation
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