OFFICE MARKET REPORT. Office Market Loses Ground OAHU MID YEAR Honolulu Office Net Absorption vs. Vacancy Rate
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1 MID YEAR 213 OAHU OFFICE OAHU MID YEAR 213 OFFICE MARKET REPORT Office Market Loses Ground MARKET INSIGHT Indicative of the volatility anticipated over the near term, the office market is not yet in full recovery mode. - Brandon Bera (S) Vice President MARKET INDICATORS MID YEAR Honolulu s office market relinquished the occupancy gains experienced in the first quarter of 213. A loss of 18,442 square feet of occupancy was recorded for the second quarter, resulting in an unspectacular year-to-date net absorption of 323 square feet. Vacancy rates rose back above 13% as volatility continues to persist in the office sector. Musical chairs appears to be the game of choice for several large downtown tenants as relocation and downsizing plans are in order for two large law firms from Alii Place (Goodsill Anderson Quinn & Stifel and Bays Lung Rose & Holma) to First Hawaiian Center and TOPA Financial, respectively, and a military contractor (BAE) to Davies Pacific Center. VACANCY NET Honolulu Office Net Absorption vs. Vacancy Rate CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE 2Q213 OFFICE HIGHLIGHTS YTD 2Q NET OAHU VACANCY RATE 323 SF 13.4% AVERAGE FULL SERVICE GROSS RENT ISLANDWIDE $ 2.87 PSF/MO 3, 2, 1, (1,) (2,) (3,) (4,) (5,) % Q CLASS A CLASS B $ 2.9 PSF/MO $ 3.14 PSF/MO (6,) Net Absorption Vacancy -4 CLASS C $ 2.58 PSF/MO
2 Honolulu County Unemployment Rate (April) 6.% 5.3% 5.% 3.9% 4.% 3.% 1.% Source: DBEDT Honolulu County Office Jobs (April) Several other large tenant relocations are planned over the next six months which should provide additional instability in the office marketplace. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency ( NOAA ), which currently occupies more than 9, square feet of space in urban Honolulu, will be relocating to its new facility at Pearl Harbor shortly. The Department of Agriculture, Internal Revenue Service and Immigration Services all secured private sector space while their offices were being renovated. They will be vacating approximately 75, square feet when they relocate back to their offices within the next year or so. The Office of Hawaiian Affairs will move their operations at the end of the year from Pacific Park Plaza to Gentry Pacific Design Center, which they recently acquired. Also, Tissue Genesis plans to move from 677 Ala Moana to the Clifford Center in downtown Honolulu. All of these projected moves should result in a net loss of tenancy and sizeable vacancy rate changes in the Central Business District ( CBD ), Kapiolani Corridor and Kalihi office submarkets. 96, 94, 92, 9, 88, 86, 85,6 9,2 Economy Keeps Chugging Along 84, 82, 8, 78, Source: DBEDT Honolulu County s unemployment rate dipped to 3.9% for April 213, its lowest level since 28. Contributing to this decline was the reduction in the size of the civilian labor force and the sharp decline in the number of unemployed civilians. Additionally, between April 212 and April 213, the number of civilians employed grew at a.78% rate, whereas the number of nonagricultural wage and salary positions increased at a 2.19% rate. Despite only nominal job growth for Honolulu County, several industry sectors posted solid Change in Job Counts 212 vs. 213 (April) industrial 9.69% education 5.13% acomodation other services office health care 3.75% 3.% 2.62% 1.9% government.2% -1.8% retail -4.% - 4.% 6.% 8.% 1 1 Source: DBEDT Castle & Cooke Community Center/AUW Building P. 2 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
3 Airport Center increases in job counts. The industrial sector led the way with 6,2 new positions and a robust annual growth rate of 9.69%. Of these jobs, 3,9 were related to the construction trades which have been positively impacted by the increase in development activity. This also bodes well for the office sector as additional design and engineering positions are created. Island Wide Full Service Gross Asking Rent $3. $2.9 $2.8 $2.79 $2.81 $2.85 $2.87 $2.7 $2.6 $2.5 $2.4 $2.3 $2.2 $2.1 $ Q213 Islandwide Average Operating Expenses The office space user categories of professional business services, financial services and information technology generated 2,3 positions for a 2.62% growth rate over the past year. Generally, there is a lag period between new job creation and strengthening occupancy levels in the office market. For three consecutive years, office jobs have increased at a 1.7% annual rate, or roughly 1,533 jobs per year. If this pace continues, there should be an increase in office net absorption for 214. $1.4 $1.2 $1. $.8 $.6 $.4 $.2 $.79 $1.31 Rental Rates Remain Flat $ Q213 The average island-wide asking NNN office rent rose slightly from $1.54 per square foot per month ( psf/mo ) in the first quarter of 213 to $1.55 psf/mo at mid-year 213. Despite this nominal increase, rents have remained stagnant for the past 4 1/2 years. Little change is anticipated for rents over the near term as job growth is projected to remain muted. Although landlords are keeping their asking rents at current levels, a better indication of where rents are being negotiated is plotted on the CBD Office Base Rent Regression Analysis graph. Initial base rents for negotiated leases are beginning to show improvement. Last year, the gap between the average asking and the average negotiated rent was as much as $.15 psf/mo. CBD Office Base Rent Regression Analysis $3.5 $3. $2.5 $2. $1.5 $1. $.5 Jan-4 May-5 Oct-6 Feb-8 Jul-9 Nov-1 Apr-12 Aug-13 Dec-14 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 3
4 DBEDT Real GDP Kapiolani Business Plaza 3.% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.% 1.9% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% -.5% -1.% -1.5% -2.%.7% % -1.6% Source: DBEDT Payroll Jobs 2.5% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.2% 1.8% 1.5% 1.%.9%.5% UHERO DBEDT Source: UHERO, DBEDT For the second quarter of 213, the average negotiated base rent of $1.48 psf/mo reflects a gap of $.7 psf/mo from the average asking base rent. This movement is an indication that tenants and landlords are starting lease negotiations with closer perceptions of the market and where they believe their deals can be consummated. Anecdotal evidence from broker feedback indicates that landlord concessions such as tenant improvement allowance, free rent and moving allowances are slowly being reduced. We continue to see a steady increase in building operating expenses. Over the last 1 years, we have witnessed annual increases of about 4.25%. These gains are principally fueled by the rise in utility prices and hourly manpower costs for janitorial and lanscaping services. Ultimately, increasing operating expenses affect overall occupancy costs for tenants and as a result, hamper landlords ability to increase base rents. Real Personal Income Upbeat Local Market 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 1.5% 1.%.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.4%.9% 2.6% 2.1% 2.9% 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% The Department of Economic Development and Tourism ( DBEDT ) and the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization ( UHERO ) are the two major economic forecasting organizations for the State of Hawaii. DBEDT is projecting a steady growth environment for Hawaii over the next four years with gross state product increasing 2.3% to 2.4% annually UHERO DBEDT Source: UHERO, DBEDT Both DBEDT and UHERO forecast that job growth will range from 1.5% to 2.1% annually from 213 to 215. This is equivalent to adding 25, new jobs over this three year period. P. 4 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
5 Assuming that the number of office jobs grow at a similar pace as the overall jobs market, nearly 5, new positions should be created, boosting demand for office space. In addition to job growth, real personal income will grow at a healthy pace that ranges between 2.1% and 2.9% over the next three years. This strong gain in spending capacity will help to fuel demand for goods and services and hopefully spur additional hiring. Kapiolani Corridor Net Absorption vs. Vacancy Rate 1 267, 1 217, 8.% 167, 6.% 117, 4.% 67, 17, Q213 (33,) - -4.% (83,) The old-timer office agent s rule of thumb of looking at the Kapiolani Corridor as an indicator of future market performance may be contradictory to the overall economic forecast. Several large tenant relocations out of the area such as the Office of Hawaiian Affairs and NOAA will negatively impact this submarket. As a result of the projected occupancy loss, Kapiolani Corridor vacancy rates should reach its highest level in nearly a decade at over 11%. By tracking prospective tenants looking for space in the market and comparing it to the amount of space being added on the market for lease, we can identify subtle changes to the office market s performance. The Colliers Supply vs. Demand Model recognized a decrease in demand during the second quarter of 213, reversing the positive trend that occurred during the previous two quarters. This volatility generally indicates that the office market is not out of the woods yet, in regards to a recovery. Over the near term, the island-wide office vacancy rate is likely to fluctuate between 12% and 14% over the next year. Once the dust settles, vacancy rates should hopefully begin to retreat. It is our prediction that vacancy will recede to 12% by year-end 214. Softening tenant demand will continue to put a damper on office rents which should remain at or slightly below current levels. National Outlook Improves The U.S. economy posted its fifteenth consecutive quarter of GDP growth as economists project further improvement of 2.% to 2.5% over the last half of the year. Job growth remains steady after having posted positive job growth for more than 32 months. So far more than 5.7 million jobs have been added back to payrolls since the end of the Great Recession. Although job counts have yet to return to levels recorded prior to the last recession, the national unemployment rate has steadily declined from a high of 1.% in October 29-6.% Absorption Vacancy 16.% 14.% 12.% 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.%.% Colliers Supply vs. Demand Model Vacancy Rate Tenants In the Market Honolulu Office Market Net Absorption vs. Vacancy Rate 3, 2, 1, (1,) (2,) (3,) (4,) (5,) Net Absorption Year-end Vacancy Year-end (133,) 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 2 15.% 1 5.% -5.% % % -3 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 5
6 to 7.5% for May 213. U.S. Gross Domestic Product Growth Q3 2Q3 3Q3 4Q3 1Q4 2Q4 3Q4 4Q4 1Q5 2Q5 3Q5 4Q5 1Q6 2Q6 3Q6 4Q6 1Q7 2Q7 3Q7 4Q7 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 4Q8 1Q9 2Q9 3Q9 4Q9 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics US Leading Economic Indicator Index The U.S. Leading Economic Indicator ( LEI ) Index has steadily risen for the past eleven months and projects improving economic conditions over the next several quarters. Conference Board analysts indicate that the recovering housing and employment markets are the biggest positive factors contributing to the rise in the LEI Index. However, there are still concerns about the potential adverse impact of government spending cuts and whether there will be a continuation of healthy consumer and business confidence to spur additional economic growth. The U.S. national office market reflects a similar pace of steady declines in vacancy rates. Those metropolitan office markets with a concentration of intellectual capital, education and energy ( ICEE ) sectors are witnessing the strongest performances. For office markets reliant upon finance, insurance and real estate sectors, many posted a loss in occupancy during the first quarter of 213. ICEE markets will drive office employment and subsequently office space demand for the rest of 213. Vacancy rates for cities such as Dallas, Boston, Denver and San Francisco have posted solid gains in absorption and rising rental rates. Submarket Focus CBD Class A 17.% 16.% 15.% 14.% 13.% 1 11.% 1 Source: The Conference Board Colliers National Office Vacancy Rates 1Q6 2Q6 3Q6 4Q6 1Q7 2Q7 3Q7 4Q7 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 4Q8 1Q9 2Q9 3Q9 4Q9 1Q1 2Q1 3Q1 4Q1 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 Source: Colliers International The CBD is comprised of more than 7.1 million square feet of office buildings. More than 4.9 million square feet of this inventory is concentrated among Class A office properties. Although building classifications tend to be subjective, most agree that Class A buildings are the most prestigious buildings in a market and house premier office tenants. Typically, these properties garner rents in the upper range of the market and have high quality standard finishes, state of the art systems, exceptional accessibility and a definite market presence. For Honolulu, Colliers classifies thirteen office buildings as being part of the CBD Class A inventory. Although the age criteria for most Class A buildings is typically less than twenty years, Honolulu s CBD Class A buildings range from 17 years to 44 years of age. The high cost of construction along with the lack of available land creates significant barriers to new office development in the CBD. Current net rents of roughly $1.5 psf/mo would have to triple to make new office construction financially feasible. P. 6 COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
7 The lack of new inventory contributes to substantial volatility in asking rents when office demand increases, allowing landlords to raise rents at a rapid clip due to limited supply. The last office development in the CBD was in 1996 when First Hawaiian Center was built. The greatest increases in rents occurred during the last boom period between 22 and 28 when gross rents rose by 35.6% over a six year period from $2.3 psf/mo to $3.13 psf/mo. Currently, there is approximately 619, square feet of available Class A space on the market for lease. Assuming a historical annual average absorption of 31, square feet over the past two decades, it would take nearly twenty years to absorb all this available space. CBD Net Absorption vs. Vacancy Rate 25, 13.81% 2, 15, 1, 5, Q213 (5,) (42,773) (1,) (15,) (2,) Absorption Vacancy 16.% 14.% % 6.% 4.% Class A Average Asking Full Service Gross Rents $3.3 $3.1 $2.9 $2.7 $2.5 $2.3 $2.1 $1.9 $1.7 $1.5 James Campbell Building TERMS AND DEFINITIONS INVENTORY - Office buildings greater than 2, square feet located on the island of Oahu. Owner-occupied, government, and medical buildings are not included. TOTAL SQUARE FEET - All rentable office space exclusive of common areas, elevator shafts and fire escapes. VACANT SPACE - Office space that is not occupied by a tenant. This includes sublease space that is unoccupied. VACANCY RATE - The ratio of vacant office space divided by the total office inventory square footage. NET - The net change in occupied space over a period of time. Year-to-date net absorption is the difference in occupied space between the end of the previous year and the current quarter. AVERAGE ASKING RENT - The ratio of aggregate landlord asking rents divided by the total available space within a specific geography or building class. AVERAGE OPERATING EXPENSE - The average rate of tenant expenses such as building utilities, management fees, building maintenance, real property taxes and insurance within a specific geography or building class. BASE RENTS - Rents exclusive of building operating expenses. FULL SERVICE GROSS RENTS - Base rents plus building operating expense. This is viewed as the tenant s total occupancy cost per square foot. BUILDING CLASSIFICATIONS - Adhering to the BOMA guidelines, Class A properties are buildings competing for premier office users with rents above average for the area. Buildings have high quality standard finishes, exceptional accessibility and a definite market presence. Class B buildings compete for a wide range of users with rents in the average range for the area. Building finishes are fair to good for the area and systems are adequate. Class C buildings competing for tenants requiring functional space at rents below the average for the area. COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL P. 7
8 MID YEAR 213 Oahu Office Market Statistics OFFICE MARKET INVENTORY - BY SUBMARKET AREA NUMBER OF BUILDINGS TOTAL SQUARE FEET VACANT SPACE VACANCY RATE 2Q NET YTD NET LOW AVG. ASKING RENT HIGH AVG. ASKING RENT AVERAGE OPERATING EXPENSES AIRPORT / MAPUNAPUNA 4 679,916 7, % 1,22 6,623 $1.59 $1.63 $1. CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT 53 7,119,83 983, % (11,242) (42,773) $1.22 $1.42 $1.3 EAST OAHU ,32 24, % (6,2) 296 $1.97 $1.99 $1.29 KAKAAKO / KAPIOLANI / KING 42 3,596, , % (21,37) (12,76) $1.43 $1.57 $1.41 KALIHI / IWILEI / KAPALAMA , , % (12,222) (24,277) $1.23 $1.55 $1.1 LEEWARD OAHU ,46 83, % 11,768 44,741 $1.97 $2.1 $1.2 WAIKIKI ,72 183,84 2.6% 4,211 25,43 $1.36 $1.49 $1.62 WINDWARD OAHU 9 38,682 1, % 5,88 2,359 $1.86 $1.9 $1.29 TOTALS ,69,358 1,94, % (18,442) 323 $1.48 $1.63 $1.31 OFFICE MARKET INVENTORY - BY BUILDING CLASS NUMBER OF BUILDINGS TOTAL SQUARE FEET VACANT SPACE VACANCY RATE 2Q NET YTD NET LOW AV. ASKING RENT AVG. HIGH ASKING RENT AVERAGE OPERATING EXPENSES CLASS A 13 4,966,72 619, % 686 (12,15) $1.35 $1.62 $1.42 CLASS B 7 6,847, , % (9,18) 15,116 $1.69 $1.82 $1.39 CLASS C 76 2,795,147 37, % (1,2) (2,778) $1.29 $1.44 $1.22 TOTALS ,69,358 1,94, % (18,442) 323 $1.48 $1.63 $ Colliers International Research & Consulting. All rights reserved. EXECUTIVE MANAGEMENT Sarah Lee Morihara (S) President sarah.morihara@colliers.com CONSULTING & RESEARCH Mike Y. Hamasu Consulting & Research Director mike.hamasu@colliers.com Nanette C. Vinton (S) Research Consultant/Project Manager nanette.vinton@colliers.com OFFICE SERVICES Karen Birkett (S) Vice President Tel: karen.birkett@colliers.com Brandon Bera (S) Vice President Tel: brandon.bera@colliers.com Susan S. Ichimasa (B) Senior Associate Tel: susan.ichimasa@colliers.com Megan Malloy (S) Associate Tel: megan.malloy@colliers.com Robert RJ Dornbos (S) Associate Tel: robert.dornbos@colliers.com Neal Hafner (S) Associate Tel: neal.hafner@colliers.com Frank Valenti (B) CCIM Associate Tel: frank.valenti@colliers.com PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Gary Evora (B) Senior Vice President Jenifer Bradley (S) Vice President Robert Sugiyama (S) Account Manager Nikki Nguyen (S) Account Manager Victoria Ferrante (S) CPM, CCIM Account Manager Anna Palla (S) Vice President/General Manager Shelley Morisaki (B) Senior Maricar Mari Ho (S) Senior Melissa Ibanez (S) Clarissa Marquart (S) Diana Mariano (S) Jill Freitas (S) Katrina Medina (S) Debbie Perreira (S) Amy Yamashiro (S) Chikako Sam Oshiro Dold (S) Karen Flemings (S) COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL 22 South King Street, Suite 18 Honolulu, Hawaii TEL FAX This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising therefrom. This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International and/or its licensor(s) All rights reserved. Accelerating success.
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