Market Report Q ///////// Los Angeles Industrial. ///////////////L o s A n g e l e s /////////////
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1 ///////////////L o s A n g e l e s ///////////// ///////////O r a n g e C o u n t y /////////// ////////////V e n t u r a ///////////////// ////////// I n l a n d E m p i r e //////////// Market Report ///////// Los Angeles Industrial / / / / /////P h o e n i x ///////////////// Although all information is furnished regarding for sale, rental or financing is from sources deemed reliable, such information has not been verified and no express representation is made nor is any to be implied as to the accuracy thereof, and it is submitted subject to errors, omissions, changes of price, rental O N C O R INTERNATIONAL
2 MARKET REPORT Industrial Los Angeles County MARKET ACTIVITY KEY TAKE AWAYS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK MARKET D Direct Vacancy 2.3% Net Absorption +1,948,655 SF V Overall Vacancy 2.5% Gross Absorption 9,447,13 SF Vacancy Rate: drops for 3rd straight quarter. Net Absorption: Strongest level of. Asking Rents: Continue to push all-time highs. Sale Price: Declines in pricing begin to materialize in with a drop of 4.4%. Leasing Activity: Declines for 4th straight quarter. Industrial Supply: Repurposing of Industrial supply to creative office or multi-family use is a trend that is here to stay as older buildings are no longer serving their highest & best use. U.S. Employment 3.9% Interest Rate 4.6% (3 year fixed) U6 Rate 7.6% Changing GDP 2.8% ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Under Construction 4,837,355 SF Sale Price Change -4.4% Rental Rates (NNN) $.96 Deal Volume -33.1% Interest Rates: The Fed is anticipating two (2) hikes in 219; increasing borrowing costs. Trade: Tensions remain with China. USMCA still awaiting congressional ratification. Stock Market: Increased volatility, but corporate fundamentals remain strong. Oil: Crude Oil dropped 39% in. Prices expected to remain low due to over-supply. Reduced transportation costs should benefit markets further away from ports. Port Traffic Y/Y Δ 1.5% Inflation Change +2.2% NYSE Performance -14.4% 1 Yr. - 2 Yr. Spread 15 BPS EXPERIENCE IN A CHANGING express representation is made nor is any to be implied as to the accuracy thereof, and it is submitted subject to errors, omissions, changes of price, rental O N C O R INTERNATIONAL
3 Los Angeles Industrial //// ///////// Market Report OVERALL VACANCY Overall vacancy falls for 3rd straight quarter HIGHEST RATE OF POSITIVE NET ABSORPTION IN 5 QUARTERS Direct Vacancy Total Vacancy Historical Average Net Absorption SF Direct Overall Vacancy 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, -1,, -2,, -3,, -4,, -5,, -6,, 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% GROSS ABORPTION BELOW HISTORIC AVG FOR 3RD STRAIGHT Q ASKING RENTS RISE TO ALL-TIME HIGHS Gross Absorption SF Total Historical Average NNN Rent Direct Overall Vacancy 25,, 2,, 15,, 1,, 5,, $1.1 $1. $.9 $.8 $.7 $.6 $.5 $.4 $.3 $.2 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.%
4 Los Angeles Industrial //// ///////// Market Report LEASING ACTIVITY DECLINE CONTINUES CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY INCREASES FOR 2ND STRAIGHT QUARTER Leasing Activity SF Direct Leasing Activity SF Sublet Under Construction SF 2,, 18,, 16,, 14,, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, SALE PRICES SEE SIGNIFICANT DIP Central/SE LA San Gabriel Valley Med. Price PSF $2,,, $1,5,, $1,,, $5,, LA-North LA-West/South $25. $2. $15. $1. $5. $ $.
5 Los Angeles Industrial //// ///////// Market Report SQUARE FOOT BREAKDOWN 916,34,462 SF MARKET SIZE VACANCY BREAKDOWN Direct Vacancy Rate Overall Vacancy Rate 19% 24% 39% Central/ SE LA LA- North San Gabriel Valley West/ South LA 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5% 2.77% 2.59% 2.9% 2.48% 2.15% 1.97% 2.44% 2.16% 18%.% Central/ SE LA LA- North San Gabriel Valley West/ South LA AVERAGE RENT PSF VOLUME BREAKDOWN Average Industrial Rent Sales Volume Price PSF $1.2 $1. $.8 $.6 $.4 $.2 $. $.89 $1.4 $.86 Central/ SE LA LA- North San Gabriel Valley $1.5 West/ South LA $5,,. $45,,. $4,,. $35,,. $3,,. $25,,. $2,,. $15,,. $1,,. $5,,. $. Central/ SE LA LA- North San Gabriel Valley West/ South LA $3. $25. $2. $15. $1. $5. $.
6 National Economic Overview //// GDP GROWS 2.7% IN 4TH QUARTER Real GDP Average Real GDP 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% -4% -6% -8% -1% ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 5,, 4,5, 4,, 3,5, 3,, 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, PORT ACTIVITY IS AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH Imports Exports Empties 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q 1Q 3Q *2.8% for 4Q18 based on Fed Reserve Bank of Atlanta "GDP Now" Forecast UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES DOWNWARD TREND MOST INDUSTRY SECTORS CONTINUE TO SEE GROWTH Recession U6 Rate Official Rate 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Government Other Services Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health Services Professional and Business Services Financial Activities Information Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Construction Mining and Logging
7 National Economic Overview //// INFLATION REMAINS IN CHECK INTEREST RATES Recession CPI All Item Less Food & Energy Fed Inflation Target 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 Recessions 1-Yr Treasury Rates Federal Funds Rate 3-Yr. Fixed Rate Mortgage 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 NYSE SEES 14.45% DIP IN 4TH QUARTER BOND SPREAD CONTINUES TO NARROW 15 BASIS POINTS Recession DOW Jones S&P 5 NASDAQ Recession Bond Spread 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% -.5% -1.% ' '1 '2 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
8 Los Angeles Industrial //// ///////// Market Report METHODOLOGY & TERMINOLOGY Methodology Industrial and flex (R & D) buildings that are 5, square feet and greater. Direct Vacant SF Space that is vacant and ready for occupancy by a user. The space is being offered for lease or sale directly from the landlord. Total Vacant W/ Sublet SF Space that is vacant and ready for occupancy by a user. The space is being offered for lease or sale by the landlord or for sublease by the current tenant. Direct Vacancy Rate Total vacant direct space (vacant space for lease or sale from the landlord or owner) divided by the total rentable square footage for existing buildings only. Vacancy W/ Sublet Rate Total vacant direct space and sublease space divided by the total rentable square footage for existing buildings only. Gross Absorption The total change in occupied space over a given period of time, counting space that is occupied but not space that is vacated by tenants. Gross absorption differs from leasing activity, which is the sum of all space leased over a certain period of time. Net Absorption The net change in occupied space over a given period of time, calculated by summing all the positive changes in occupancy (move ins) and subtracting all the negative changes in occupancy (move outs). Under Construction Planned buildings for which construction has started but have not yet been granted a Certificate of Occupancy. Planned buildings are not included. Completed in New buildings with original construction completed in the year and granted a Certificate of Occupancy. Renovated buildings are not included DAUM OFFICES LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA 81 S. Figueroa Street, Suite 6 Los Angeles, CA LOS ANGELES NORTH, CALIFORNIA 2182 Burbank Boulevard, Suite 21 Woodland Hills, CA SANTA CLARITA VALLEY, CALIFORNIA Westinghouse Place, Suite 312 Valencia, CA SAN GABRIEL VALLEY, CALIFORNIA Crossroads Pkwy. N, Suite 1 City of Industry, CA SOUTH BAY, CALIFORNIA 125 W. 19th Street, Suite 42 Gardena, CA MID-COUNTIES, CALIFORNIA 1381 Cerritos Corporate Drive, Suite C Cerritos, CA ORANGE COUNTY, CALIFORNIA 44 MacArthur Boulevard, Suite 95 Newport Beach, CA VENTURA & SANTA BARBARA, CALIFORNIA 751 Daily Drive, Suite 15 Camarillo, CA INLAND EMPIRE, CALIFORNIA 3595 E. Inland Empire Boulevard, Bldg. 5 Ontario, CA PHOENIX ARIZONA 172 E. Highland Avenue, Suite 12 Phoenix, AZ
Market Report Q ///////// Orange County Industrial. ///////////////L o s A n g e l e s /////////////
///////////////L o s A n g e l e s ///////////// ///////////O r a n g e C o u n t y /////////// ////////////V e n t u r a ///////////////// ////////// I n l a n d E m p i r e //////////// Market Report
More informationMarket Report Q ///////// Los Angeles Industrial. ///////////////L o s A n g e l e s /////////////
///////////////L o s A n g e l e s ///////////// ///////////O r a n g e C o u n t y /////////// ////////////V e n t u r a ///////////////// ////////// I n l a n d E m p i r e //////////// Market Report
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///////////////L o s A n g e l e s ///////////// ///////////O r a n g e C o u n t y /////////// ////////////V e n t u r a ///////////////// ////////// I n l a n d E m p i r e //////////// Market Report
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///////////////L o s A n g e l e s ///////////// ///////////O r a n g e C o u n t y /////////// ////////////V e n t u r a ///////////////// ////////// I n l a n d E m p i r e //////////// Market Report
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