KNOWLEDGE REPORT $463.9 B $14.4 B $1.4 B. Multifamily Research & Forecast Report 2H 2017 Colliers International Ohio
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1 KNOWLEDGE REPORT Multifamily Research & Forecast Report 2H Colliers International Ohio Multifamily Market Peaking, but Fundamentals Remain Strong U.S. Market Overview The U.S. multifamily sector shows signs of peaking during the current cycle, but the fundamentals remain strong indicating that the asset class still has room to run. After recording annual rent growth in the four to five percent range for a number of years, the rate of increases began to decline during. At mid-year, the year-over-year gain was 3.6 percent and by the end of the year, rents posted an annual gain of 2.6 percent. This rate of increase is still in line with the historical average. saw a record amount of new supply, increasing the nation s inventory by 2.1 percent by adding nearly 365,000 new units. Even so, demand kept pace, and occupancy remained unchanged from a year ago at 95.1 percent. It is expected, though, that construction volume will decrease going forward as the number of units currently in the pipeline has dropped to 382,000 from a peak in early of 478,000 units. New deliveries will total 330,000 units in 2018, which is still double the historical norm. Even as millennials age and move to single-family homes, Moody s forecasts that population growth in this key demographic group of 25- to 34-year olds will remain elevated for the next six years. Live/work/play, mixed-use developments that provide access to a diverse cross section of amenities, offer the ability to lead a healthy lifestyle and designed with environmentally friendly elements are and will continue to be in high demand. However, it is the Class B and C properties have experienced increasing demand, rising occupancies and above average rent growth. The slowdown in sales volume recorded during the rest half of the year appears to have been an aberration as sales totaling $87.7 billion were transacted during the second half of. The year s total volume of $150.3 billion is down 5.5 percent from last year s pace, but pricing remained unaffected averaging $145,244 per unit an increase of 0.6 percent year-over-year. Cap rates were unchanged averaging 5.6 percent. $463.9 B U.S. Sale Volume -5.5%* $14.4 B Midwest Sale Volume +9.0%* $1.4 B Ohio Sale Volume +16.9%* Apartment Transaction Volume *Year-over-year Change in Transaction Volume
2 Ohio Market Overview Ohio Apartment Market Data 2H ROW LABELS INVENTORY (# OF UNITS) VACANT UNITS ANNUAL DEMAND (UNITS) OCCUPANCY RATE (%) ANNUAL NEW SUPPLY (UNITS) UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION AVG MONTHLY RENT AVG RENT PER SF Cincinnati 153,518 6, % 2,366 2,090 $ $0.97 Cleveland 164,299 6, % 1,360 1,849 $ $1.00 Columbus 163,607 5,912 3, % 4,614 5,319 $ $0.97 Dayton 58,334 3, % 920 1,011 $ $0.86 Akron 43,356 2, % $ Grand Total /Averages 583,114 24,862 2, % 9,378 10,345 $ $1.01 Source: MPF Research Historical Sales Volume/Average Cap Rate Historical Occupancy - Ohio Markets $1, % 100.0% $1,375.0 $1,250.0 $1, % 7.0% 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% Sales Volume ($ Mil) $1,000.0 $875.0 $750.0 $ % 5.0% 4.0% Avg Cap Rate 96.0% 95.0% 94.0% 93.0% 92.0% $ % 91.0% $375.0 $250.0 $125.0 $ % 1.0% 0.0% 90.0% Toledo Avg Cap Rate # OF UNITS Supply/Demand/Construction 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,000 New Supply Demand Under Construction Source: Colliers Research, MPF Research, Axiometrics, Real Capital Analytics Historical Average Monthly Rent - Ohio Markets $1,000 $500 $550 2 Ohio Research & Forecast Report 2H Multifamily 95.0% Market Outlook Colliers International $1,000 $950 $900 $850 $800 $750 $700 $650 $600 $550 $950 $900 $850 $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % $ % 93.0%
3 Ohio Multifamily 2H Notable Sales PROPERTY NAME SALE DATE SALE PRICE NUMBER OF UNITS PRICE / UNIT BUYER SELLER MARKET CP Cincy Dec-17 $26,000, $214,876 Nelson Brothers M&A Real Estate Cincinnati Oxford West Jul-17 $24,750, $81,414 RISE Phillips Acquisitions Cincinnati Gantry Apartments Oct-17 $19,600, $149,618 Gantry Apartments LLC Hamilton & Blue Rock LLC Cincinnati Maple Oaks Townhomes Dec-17 $9,433, $56,825 Maple Oaks Residential LLC Edgewood Capital Cincinnati Woods of Turpin Sep-17 $8,475, $51,677 Towne Properties Steven A Stender; Raymond H Stender Cincinnati Greens of Turfway Oct-17 $7,920, $90,000 Spartan Villa LLC Premier Greens Of Turfway Llc Cincinnati Northwoods Apartments Aug-17 $6,250, $57,870 Northwoods Apartments Cincinnati LLC Apartments Of Northwood Ltd Cincinnati Crown Pointe Apartments Dec-17 $4,700, $38,211 Axiom Equity Investments 1, LLC BRG Realty Group LLC Cincinnati Fields Ertel Apartments Jul-17 $4,500, $81,818 TreeTop Development C-III Investment Mgmt Cincinnati Southview Manor Dec-17 $4,337, $34,155 King Communities Pro Man Property Management LLC Cincinnati Oakwood Jul-17 $4,300, $66,154 Blvd Capital Oakwood Apartments II LP Cincinnati Clearpointe Woods Apartments Dec-17 $4,163, $26,861 Allen Leung-Wolf Eastern Hills Investments LLC Cincinnati Amelia Court Apartments Dec-17 $4,000, $42,105 Phillip J Stover; Annette A Stover Unique Campus Rentals Cincinnati Oakwood Apartments Oct-17 $3,407, $52,421 BLVD Capital LJF Management Cincinnati Beechmont Towers & Washington House Apartments Sep-17 $3,375, $32,767 Sarner Capital Greater Cincinnati Apartment Management Inc Hickory Hill Apartments Sep-17 $8,200, $46,067 DMG Rentals 18 LLC Hickory Hill Apartments LP Alphada Place Nov-17 $5,300, $34,868 Watermark Partners Gross Family Ltd Cincinnati Cleveland/ Akron Cleveland/ Akron Worthington Meadows Nov-17 $54,380, $102,992 PIRHL Carlton Group Columbus Sterling Place Sep-17 $32,500, $108,333 The Connor Group CORE Realty Holdings Columbus Gateway Lakes Apartments Nov-17 $20,600, $81,746 Hamilton Point Investments Carlton Group Columbus Alkire Glen Apartments Jul-17 $20,000, $79,365 Realsource Porter Wright Columbus College Park Apartments Nov-17 $19,800, $79,200 Hamilton Point Investments Carlton Group Columbus The Reserve at Sharon Woods Oct-17 $14,000, $75,269 AndMark Domain Equity Inc Columbus Sutton Square Townhomes Oct-17 $9,657, $47,811 RealtyShares, Hamilton Sutton Square Property LLC Barrington Group Columbus Sheffield Oct-17 $8,230, $60,515 Evergreen Realty Group Columbus Arlington Pointe Nov-17 $7,765, $69,330 Coastal Ridge Arlington Pointe LLC Columbus King Avenue Sep-17 $4,900, $204,167 Northwood Properties D Scott Owens Columbus Mad River Oct-17 $25,000, $82,781 Mad River Investments LLC The Connor Group Dayton Ashton Glen Nov-17 $10,000, $92,593 VF1 Ashton Glen LLC Freestone Realty Advisors Dayton Red Coach Village Oct-17 $8,000, $58,824 Springfield Partners Property I LLC; Springfield Partners Property II LLC JRK Asset Management The Commons at Kettering Dec-17 $6,361, $53,008 Pauls Corp Realty Edgewood Capital Dayton Cedar Trail Apartments Oct-17 $6,150, $46,591 Cedar Trail Partments Llc Cedar Trail Lp Dayton Timberlake Apartments Nov-17 $5,250, $36,458 Timberlake Apartments Llc Miller-Valentine Group Dayton Willowood Apartments Oct-17 $4,360, $35,161 CommuniCare Health Services Absolute Property Solutions II LLC Dayton Country Club Apartments Jul-17 $21,800, $68,987 Monarch Investment and Management Group Apollo Property Mgmt Toledo Steeplechase Dec-17 $20,200, $83,471 Morgan Management Cumberland Construction Toledo North Towne Villas Oct-17 $6,272, $43,259 Bodie Investments The Whitehurst Company Toledo 2606 Pioneer Trail Jul-17 $4,581, $25,309 Readycap Commercial LLC Key Real Estate Ltd Toledo Dayton Source: Colliers Research, CoStar, Real Capital Analytics 3 Ohio Research & Forecast Report 2H Multifamily Market Outlook Colliers International
4 Market Takeaways In Cincinnati, supply outpaced demand during for the first time in three years pushing the overall market occupancy rate down 60 basis points to 95.7 percent. 2,366 units were added to the region s inventory during the year, approximately 1.3 percent of inventory. The pipeline remains full with over 2,090 units scheduled for delivery in Most of the projects are focused in the downtown and central submarkets. The trend of the highest occupancies in Class A product has reversed as new supply has been added to the inventory. Rent growth, which has increased above historical averages for each of the past three years, slowed during the year. The average monthly rent as of year-end was $904 per month, an increase of 2.7 percent over last year. As new supply is primarily focused on upper-end product in prime submarkets, affordability issues in these areas have pushed demand into Class B and C properties in working class submarkets, which in the past have lagged the overall market. Over the past two years, though, annual rent growth in these areas have averaged around five percent annually. With growing population in both the 55+ and 20- to 34-year segments, it is expected that construction activity will remain elevated for at least the next two years as these two key cohorts provide additional demand for apartments. The Cleveland multifamily market faces stiff competition from single-family home sales, which have enjoyed increasing levels of demand over the past five years. Cleveland s home ownership rate of 65.7 percent is 1.8 points higher than the national average and the region ranks as one of the nation s most affordable in terms of housing prices. However, lifestyle considerations have benefitted the Cleveland apartment market, especially in the downtown area where most new development and demand for apartments is focused. The two demographic cohorts driving demand, the 55+ and 20- to 34 year-old segments are the fastest growing groups in the metropolitan area. From a historical perspective, development activity remains elevated. 1,360 units were delivered in and 1,741 units are scheduled for completion in However, for the first time in three years, supply exceeded demand. The overall occupancy rate fell on a year-over-year basis by 40 basis points to 95.9 percent. But the market appears to be in balance with forecasts calling for construction activity to drop by Monthly rents average $889, an annual increase of 2.4 percent. In line with regional and national trends, the rate of rent growth has slowed after averaging 3.3 percent over the past 5 years. The Columbus market leads the state in inventory growth, adding 3,921 units during with another 4,800 scheduled for delivery in Demand of 4,150 units outpaced supply during the year pushing the overall occupancy up by 10 basis points to 96.4 percent. Population growth in the key demographic cohorts has generated outsized demand for apartments. Home to The Ohio State University, the nation s third largest university, the 20- to 34-year old segment is growing at nearly twice the national average. The 55+ cohort, the other driver for apartment demand, has also increased significantly. Additionally, Columbus is a renters market with a home ownership rate of 58.1 percent, nearly six points below the national average. All these factors point towards favorable conditions for multifamily for the near future. Currently at $899 per month and in contrast to national and regional the trends, rent growth has not slowed increasing by 3.5 percent during the same as the market s five year average. The majority of the new development is focused in downtown Columbus and the nearby University District. Elevated supply levels in these prime areas have recently resulted in some volatility in rents. It is forecast that demand will slow throughout 2018 and with the influx of new supply, occupancies will decrease and rent growth will moderate. However, stable conditions are expected to continue in the near term. 4 Ohio Research & Forecast Report 2H Multifamily Market Outlook Colliers International
5 396 offices in 69 countries on 6 continents United States: 153 Canada: 34 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 192 EMEA: 112 MULTIFAMILY BROKERAGE SERVICES contact Gary Cooper, CCIM Brokerage Senior Vice President gary.cooper@colliers.com Corey Mason Brokerage Associate corey.mason@colliers.com Shenan P. Murphy, CCIM CEO Cincinnati & Dayton Colliers International Greater Cincinnati 425 Walnut Street, Suite 1200 Cincinnati, OH colliers.com/ohio FOR MORE INFORMATION Loren M. DeFilippo, CCIM Director of Research Ohio loren.defilippo@colliers.com Keara Fogarty Marketing & PR Coordinator keara.fogarty@colliers.com Copyright Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. accelerating success.
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