4.11 POPULATION AND HOUSING

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1 4.11 POPULATION AND HOUSING INTRODUCTION This section of the Draft Environmental Report (Draft EIR; DEIR) describes the current population and demographic characteristics and housing and employment conditions within the City of Tehachapi General Plan Planning Area (Planning Area). It also analyzes the potential impact of implementing the proposed City of Tehachapi General Plan (Proposed General Plan) as it relates to impacts to population, housing, and employment, proposed General Plan objectives and policies that reduce the identified impacts, and mitigation measures where appropriate. This section is based on data obtained from public agencies such as the U.S. Census Bureau, and the California Department of Finance. ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING Regional Setting The City of Tehachapi (City) is located in eastern Kern County (County) in the Southern Sierra Nevada Mountain Range. The county encompasses 11 incorporated cities: Arvin, Bakersfield, California City, Delano, Maricopa, McFarland, Ridgecrest, Shafter, Taft, Tehachapi, and Wasco. The County s population as of January 1, 2011 was estimated at 846,883 with 35.6 percent residing in the unincorporated County and the remaining 65.4 percent residing in one of the County s incorporated cities. Population growth in Kern County has stayed steady over the last two decades, ranging from 21.7 percent in the 1990 s to 25.0 percent in the last decade. The County s 2050 population is projected to be about 2.1 million persons with an average projected growth rate of 3.9 percent. The growth projections for surrounding counties, as provided by the Department of Finance, are generally equal to or slightly lower than that of Kern County. Table , Current and Projected Population Kern and Surrounding Counties, below, provides the 2050 growth projections for the surrounding counties of Kings, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, San Luis Obispo, Tulare, and Ventura. Impact Sciences, Inc City of Tehachapi General Plan Draft EIR

2 County 2011 Population Table Current and Projected Population Kern and Surrounding Counties Projected Population Average Annual Growth Rate Kern 846,883 1,086,113 1,352,627 1,707,239 2,106, Kings 153, , , , , Los Angeles 9,858,989 11,214,237 11,920,289 12,491,606 13,061, San Bernardino 2, ,581,371 2,958,939 3,309,292 3,662, San Luis Obispo 270, , , , , Tulare 446, , , ,480 1,026, Ventura 828, ,392 1,049,758 1,135,684 1,229, Source: State of California, Department of Finance, P1 Population Projections with Race/Ethnic Detail Local Setting Population Trends Table , Population Estimates City of Tehachapi, Kern County, State of California, compares the population estimates for the period 2000 through 2011 for the City of Tehachapi, Kern County, and the State of California. According to the California Department of Finance population estimates, the City had a population of 14,523 in 2011, a 30 percent increase over the 2000 population. The City s population growth between 2000 and 2011 correlates with a similar population increase in the county as a whole. Table Population Estimates City of Tehachapi, Kern County, State of California Percentage Change ( ) Average Annual Growth Rate ( ) City of Tehachapi 11,125* 14,523* Kern County 661, , California 33,873,086 37,510, Source: Department of Finance, 2011; U.S. Census Bureau, *These population figures include the annexed the State Prison which has an approximate population of 5,000. Impact Sciences, Inc City of Tehachapi General Plan Draft EIR

3 According to the population estimates shown in Table , the City has had an average annual growth rate of about 7.1 percent between 1990 and However, the growth rate fluctuated widely during this period with most of the growth actually occurring in the 1990s and slowing between 2000 and The population of Tehachapi was 14,523 persons in 2011, which represents approximately 1.7 percent of the total population of Kern County (846,883 persons). Within the County, Tehachapi s population is unique, with about 37 percent (5,422 persons) of the population comprising incarcerated persons. Deducting the incarcerated population provides a more accurate indication of the City s population. The actual population in 2011 was 9,101. Housing Trends Population projections are converted to numbers of households by using an average household size for each year in the project. As indicated in Table , Household Size (Persons Per Household) City of Tehachapi, Kern County, State of California, the household size in the City is smaller compared to the County average (2.652 persons for the City, compared to persons for the County) but has been growing slightly in recent years. The County average household size has also increased in recent years from in 2002 to in Table Household Size (Persons Per Household) City of Tehachapi, Kern County, State of California Average City of Tehachapi Kern County California Source: Department of Finance, As listed in Table , Housing Units by Type City of Tehachapi, the City contained 3,694 housing units in 2009, about 68 percent of which were in the detached single-family unit category. Attached single-family units represent only 3.7 percent of the housing stock while multi-family units represent about 19 percent and mobile homes represent about nine percent of the housing stock. Impact Sciences, Inc City of Tehachapi General Plan Draft EIR

4 Table Housing Units by Type City of Tehachapi Housing Unit Type Single-Family Percentage Units Percentage Total Units Percentage Total Change Detached 1, , Attached Total Single Family 1, , Multi-Family 2-4 Units Units Total Multi-Family Mobile Homes Total Units 2, , Source: Department of Finance, 2010 Note: Percentage numbers may not add to 100 percent due to independent rounding. Economic Trends As indicated in Table , Industry Employment Status City of Tehachapi and Kern County, the City had a total workforce of 2,252 people over the age of 16 (excluding government workers) in 2000, a decrease of 134 workers since This represents a -5.6 percent decrease for the period or an average annual growth rate of about -0.6 percent. The decrease in the City may be contrasted to the county workforce, which had an 8.2 percent increase from 1990 to 2000 with an average annual growth rate of 0.8 percent. One third of the local population is employed in public administration and education, with about another third in other professions such as arts/design media, information, and finance. The remaining third work in retail, wholesale, manufacturing, transportation, aerospace, agriculture, and construction businesses. The California Correctional Institution, which was established in 1933, provides 1,700 jobs and is the City s largest employer. Other major employers include the Tehachapi Unified School District, Tehachapi Hospital, GE Energy, and Lehigh Southwest Cement Company. The central business district is located on and adjacent to Tehachapi Boulevard, and a neighborhood shopping center is located at the intersection of Tucker Road and Valley Boulevard. These areas contain the majority of Tehachapi s retail and service establishments. These operations are small and often locally owned, employing only a few individuals. Employment within the City and Kern County by industry is detailed in Table below. Impact Sciences, Inc City of Tehachapi General Plan Draft EIR

5 City of Tehachapi Industries Table Industry Employment Status City of Tehachapi and Kern County Employment 1990 Employment 2000 Annual Growth Rate Employment Distribution (2000) Total employed over 16 years of age 1 2,386 2, Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries/Hunting, & Mining Construction All Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Information, Communications & Other Public Utilities Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental and Leasing Education, Health and Social Services Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommodation and Food Services All Other Services (Business, Professional, Scientific, Administrative) Public Administration Kern County Industries (including cities) Total employed over 16 years of age 1 214, , Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries/Hunting, & Mining 31,678 28, Construction 16,985 16, All Manufacturing 15,665 13, Wholesale Trade 10,193 11, Retail Trade 35,952 24, Transportation, Information, Communications & Other Public Utilities 14,509 16, Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Rental and Leasing 9,579 11, Education, Health and Social Services 30,787 45, Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, Accommodation and Food Services 2,984 16, All Other Services (Business, Professional, Scientific, Administrative) 30,267 29, Public Administration 16,069 18, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990; U.S. Census Bureau, Does not include government employees. Impact Sciences, Inc City of Tehachapi General Plan Draft EIR

6 Table above provides employment data by industry, whereas Table , Labor Force by Occupation City of Tehachapi and Kern County, below provides employment data by occupation or type of job. City of Tehachapi Industries Table Labor Force by Occupation City of Tehachapi and Kern County Employment 1990 Employment 2000 Annual Growth Rate Employment Distribution (2000) Total employed over 16 years of age 2,386 2, Executive, Professional, Managerial Service Sales, Administrative, Clerical Farming, Forestry and Fishing Construction, Extraction, Maintenance, Laborers Production, Operators, Assemblers, Technicians, Transportation and Materials Moving Kern County Industries (including cities) Total employed over 16 years of 214,668 age 232, Executive, Professional, Managerial 48,727 62, Service 28,089 40, Sales, Administrative, Clerical 55,038 56, Farming, Forestry and Fishing 18,112 15, Construction, Extraction, Maintenance, Laborers 8,341 25, Production, Operators, Assemblers, Technicians, Transportation and Materials Moving 56,361 31, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1990; U.S. Census Bureau, Impact Sciences, Inc City of Tehachapi General Plan Draft EIR

7 REGULATORY FRAMEWORK Federal Uniform Relocation Assistance and Real Property Acquisition Policies Act of 1970 (Uniform Act) The Uniform Act, passed by Congress in 1970, is a Federal Law that establishes minimum standards for federally funded programs and projects that require the acquisition of real property (real estate) or displace persons from their homes, businesses, or farms. The Uniform Act s protections and assistance apply to the acquisition, rehabilitation, or demolition of real property for federal or federally funded projects. Section 49 Code of Federal Regulations Part 24 is the government-wide regulation that implements the act. Title 24--Housing and Urban Development Part 42 Displacement, Relocation Assistance, and Real Property Acquisition for Housing and Urban Development ( HUD ) and HUD-Assisted Programs Section 104(d) of the Housing and Community Development ( HCD Act ) Act provides minimum requirements for federally funded programs or projects when units that are part of a community s lowincome housing supply are demolished or converted to a use other than lower moderate-income dwellings. Section 104(d) requirements include: Replacement, on a one-for-one basis, of all occupied and vacant occupiable low- or moderate-income dwelling units that are demolished or converted to a use other than low or moderate-income housing in connection with an activity assisted under the HCD Act, and Provision of certain relocation assistance to any lower-income person displaced as a direct result of the following activities in connection with federal assistance: Demolition of any dwelling unit, or Conversion of a low- or moderate-income dwelling unit to a use other than a low- or moderateincome residence. Section 104(d) requirements are triggered by the use of HOME, Community Development Block Grant (CDBG), Section 108 Loan Guarantee, or Urban Development Action Grant (UDAG) funding in a project involving the demolition or conversion of low- or moderate-income housing. Impact Sciences, Inc City of Tehachapi General Plan Draft EIR

8 State California Relocation Statute Government Code Section 7260 The California Relocation Statute (the Statute) is a California law that establishes minimum standards for state funded programs and projects that require the acquisition of real property (real estate) or displace persons from their homes, businesses, or farms. The Statute s protections and assistance apply to the acquisition, rehabilitation, or demolition of real property for state-funded projects. The Statute is intended for the benefit of displaced persons, to ensure that such persons receive fair and equitable treatment and do not suffer disproportionate injuries as the result of programs designed for the benefit of the public as a whole. Title 25, Division 1, Chapter 6 of the California Code of Regulations provides the regulatory guidelines to enforce the Statute. Title 25 Division 1 Chapter 6 Subchapter 1 Relocation Assistance and Real Property Acquisition This section of Title 25 provides guidelines to assist public entities in the development of regulations and procedures implementing Government Code Section The guidelines are designed to carry out the following policies of Section 7260: 1) To ensure that uniform, fair and equitable treatment is afforded persons displaced from their homes, businesses, or farms as a result of the actions of a public entity in order that such persons shall not suffer disproportionate injury as a result of action taken for the benefit of the public as a whole; and 2) In the acquisition of real property by a public entity, to ensure consistent and fair treatment for owners of real property to be acquired, to encourage and expedite acquisition by agreement with owners of such property in order to avoid litigation and relieve congestion in courts, and to promote confidence in public land acquisition. State Housing Policies State policies affecting land use regulations in cities throughout California are included in housing policies as established by the Housing Element of the City of Tehachapi Proposed General Plan. The Housing Element is the primary policy document regarding the development, rehabilitation, and preservation of housing for all economic segments of the population within a jurisdiction and is required by law. Accordingly, the Housing Element identifies and analyzes the existing and projected housing needs and states goals toward providing sufficient housing. The element contains policies, quantified objectives, and implementation programs for the preservation, improvement, and development of housing in the City of Tehachapi. State law sets out a process for determining each local jurisdiction s fair share of regional housing needs, called the Regional Housing Needs Determination (RHND). As a first step in the process, the State Impact Sciences, Inc City of Tehachapi General Plan Draft EIR

9 Department of Housing and Community Development assigns each regional council of governments a needed number of new housing units for that region, including affordable housing. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS Thresholds of Significance The following thresholds for determining the significance of impacts related to population and housing are contained in the environmental checklist form contained in Appendix G of the most recent update of the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) Guidelines. A significant impact would occur with full implementation of the proposed General Plan if it would: Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly or indirectly; Displace substantial numbers of existing housing necessitating the construction or replacement housing elsewhere; and/or Displace substantial numbers of people necessitating the construction of replacement housing elsewhere. Methodology The following impact analysis was prepared using U.S. Census Bureau and California Department of Finance data. Demographic information and data was also obtained from various governmental agencies through their websites and discussions with agency staff members. When considering the potential impacts a project may have on the physical environment, the existing conditions must be compared to the expected outcome the project may produce and the potential environmental impacts this change may cause. The projected increase in the Planning Area population and housing units would result in direct and indirect environmental effects such as noise, demand for services and utilities, visual degradation, traffic, and air quality. The effects associated with buildout of the proposed General Plan are discussed in the relevant chapters of this DEIR (see Sections 4.1 though 4.14). The following is a discussion of implementation of the proposed General Plan and its potential to induce substantial growth. The City of Tehachapi General Plan is intended to be a self-mitigating document, in that the proposed General Plan objectives and policies are designed to mitigate or avoid impacts on the environment resulting from implementation of the proposed General Plan. To that end, the relevant updated General Plan objectives and policies providing mitigation have been identified for each significant impact in this section. If the applicable General Plan objectives and policies were determined not to fully mitigate or avoid impacts, then additional mitigation measures have been provided. These additional mitigation Impact Sciences, Inc City of Tehachapi General Plan Draft EIR

10 measures have been written as policy statements that can be incorporated into the final General Plan. Each impact discussion includes a determination as to whether the impacts would be mitigated to a less than significant level or would remain significant and unavoidable after implementation of the updated General Plan objectives and policies. Impact Analysis Threshold: Induce substantial population growth in an area, either directly or indirectly Impact Development permitted by the proposed General Plan would result in land uses that promote an increase in population, housing, and employment in the Planning Area and thus induce substantial growth. (Less than significant) Development of land uses permitted by the proposed General Plan is expected to add 2,012 residential dwelling units to the City. This increase in residential dwelling units is expected to add 5,372 new residents over the next 25 years. This increase would bring the total population of the City of Tehachapi (without CCI) to approximately 14,201 persons. The projected growth and associated development within the Planning Area would have direct and indirect physical effects on the environment, which are addressed in other technical sections of this DEIR. The environmental effects of the development of additional fire protection facilities in the Planning Area have been programmatically considered in this Draft EIR as part of overall development identified in the Planning Area (see Section 4.1 though Section 4.14). As such, this impact is considered less than significant. Proposed General Plan Objectives and Policies that Reduce the Impact None applicable. Mitigation Measures None required. Impact Sciences, Inc City of Tehachapi General Plan Draft EIR

11 Threshold Displace substantial numbers of existing housing necessitating the construction or replacement housing elsewhere. Impact Development permitted by the proposed General Plan may result in the displacement of housing and/or persons due to the construction of infrastructure necessary to serve new development or revitalization efforts. (Less than significant) While implementation of the proposed General Plan would not in and of itself displace substantial numbers of housing units or people, it would change land use designations in currently undeveloped areas. This in turn could allow for future growth that may require additional infrastructure or improvements to existing infrastructure, thereby resulting in the removal of some housing units or businesses. However, state and federal law requires just compensation for persons required to relocate as a result of redevelopment projects carried out by a city, particularly resulting from any projects that use federal or state funding. Any private development that may occur would pay the fair market price for any land or housing acquired as a result of project development. Therefore, although displacement of persons or housing may result, just compensation offsets any cost-related effects. The proposed General Plan contains objectives and policies that preserve housing, increase development certainty, and seek to provide housing opportunities to all resident groups. For example, Town Form Objective 9, Policy TF35 requires the City to identify and pursue funding to further Tehachapi s programs for housing improvements. In addition, Town Form Objective 10 list a number of actions the City can take to increase development certainty, such as amending the City code to require ministerial consideration of second-unit applications in residential zones and to comply with changes in the State Density Bonus law. Finally, Town Form Objective 11, Policy TF39 requires the City to address deficient or non-existent infrastructure for approximately 10 affordable housing units per year. The proposed General Plan designates additional areas for residential development and is anticipated to expand the City s housing stock. As such, the project is not anticipated to result in a reduction of housing units or displacement of substantial numbers of persons or amounts of housing. Therefore, implementation of the proposed General Plan would not result in the substantial displacement of housing units or people, and this impact is considered less than significant. Proposed General Plan Objectives and Policies that Reduce the Impact Town Form Element Objective 9 Preserve and improve existing housing. Impact Sciences, Inc City of Tehachapi General Plan Draft EIR

12 Policy TF35 Housing Rehabilitation. Identify and pursue funding to further Tehachapi s programs for housing improvements, such as the Paint-Up and Spruce-Up Grant Programs for at least one dwelling per year. Policy TF36 Clean Up Programs. Coordinate with community groups and organizations such as the Chamber of Commerce to hold a single event or annual free yard waste pickup. Objective 10 Increase development certainty through zoning and delegating of decisions. Policy TF37 Focusing the Planning Commission and City Council s time on the most important of community issues by relying on administrative actions to carry out the community vision. Policy TF38 Utilize clear development requirements tailored to the community vision. Objective 11 Meet equal housing opportunity needs for all resident groups regardless of their economic, social, or cultural background. Policy TF39 Residential Infrastructure. Prioritize Tehachapi s CDBG allocation to address deficient or non-existent infrastructure for approximately 10 affordable housing units per year. In addition, leverage such funds for area-wide improvements with redevelopment housing set-aside funds and awarded grant funds. Policy TF40 User Fee Assistance. Utilize a funding mechanism, including feedeferrals, to reduce fees for approximately 10 very low income and low income housing units per year. Policy TF41 Residential Land Inventory. Prepare land inventory of available, vacant residentially zoned property and publish for easy use. Policy TF41A Housing GIS Database/Code Enforcement. Conduct a 100 percent housing condition survey utilizing a geographic information system database. Prioritize code enforcement activity based on these results and address at least ten substandard units per year. Policy TF41B Secondary Residential Units. Amend Chapter (Secondary Residential Units) of the Tehachapi Zoning Ordinance to comply with Impact Sciences, Inc City of Tehachapi General Plan Draft EIR

13 AB 1866, requiring ministerial consideration of second-unit applications in residential zones. Policy TF41C Density Bonus. Amend Chapter (Density Bonuses) of the Tehachapi Zoning Ordinance to comply with changes in the State Density Bonus law (Govt Code Section 65915). Policy TF41D Emergency Shelters. Amend the Tehachapi Zoning Ordinance to comply with SB 2 and permit emergency shelters without a conditional use permit (CUP) or other discretionary permits and define transitional and supportive housing as residential uses subject to the same restrictions that apply to other housing. Policy TF41E Density Consistency. Revise the Tehachapi Zoning ordinance to be consistent with the General Plan Land Use Designations and their intended density, intensity and development potential. Policy TF42 Residential Redevelopment. Utilize redevelopment tools/funds to rehabilitate blighted residential areas by acquiring land and/or implementing neighborhood improvement projects (e.g., open space development, building rehabilitation, etc). Policy TF43 Information Outreach. With County Community Development input, provide information brochure of available assistance. Policy TF44 Redevelopment Housing Plan Implementation. Utilize Redevelopment Agency Housing Set-aside to assist and leverage the development of approximately 80 additional affordable housing units for families and seniors. Mitigation Measures None required. Impact Sciences, Inc City of Tehachapi General Plan Draft EIR