Annual Report on the Northwestern Vermont Housing Market

Transcription

1 Annual Report on the Northwestern Vermont Housing Market FOR RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY IN CHITTENDEN, FRANKLIN AND GRAND ISLE COUNTIES Sponsored by:

2 Annual Report on the Northwestern Vermont Housing Market FOR RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY IN CHITTENDEN, FRANKLIN AND GRAND ISLE COUNTIES With a new U.S. president from a different political party taking office in 207, few are expecting federal policies to remain as they have under prior leadership. The incoming president has a deep history in real estate development and has shown a strong interest in funding massive infrastructure projects, two points that provide intrigue for the immediate future of residential real estate. After several years of housing market improvement, 206, as predicted, was not a pronounced triumph but more of a measured success. Markets took a steady and mostly profitable walk from month to month. Even as supply was short and shrinking, sales and prices were often increasing. Interest rates were expected to rise throughout 206, but they did not. Just as happened in 205, the Federal Reserve waited until December 206 to make a shortterm rate increase. Incremental rate hikes are again expected in 207. An economy that shows unemployment at a nine-year low coupled with higher wages inspires confidence. Mortgage rates are not expected to grow by more than.75 percent throughout 207, which should keep them below 5.0 percent. If they rise above that mark, we could see rate lock, and that could cause homeowners to stay put at locked-in rates instead of trading up for higherrate properties. Such a situation would put a damper on an already strained inventory environment. Sales: Pending sales increased 2.3 percent to 2,79 to close out the year. Closed sales increased 4.2 percent to 2,723 in 206. Listings: Inventory was lower in year-over-year comparisons. There were 964 active listings at the end of 206. New listings decreased by 9.3 percent to finish the year at 3,609. Low home supply is expected to continue throughout 207. New Construction: New homes are being built but at roughly half the rate the nation needs in order to sustain a solid inventory foundation. Another factor is that a lot of new homes are being built as rental units, and expensive ones at that. Locally in 206, new construction homes sold for 0.9 percent of the original list price received. Prices: Home prices rose compared to last year. The overall median sales price was up 2.0 percent to $255,000 for the year. When inventory is low and demand is high, prices will rise. Prices should increase in most areas in 207 but at a slower growth rate. Single Family homes were up 2.3 percent compared to last year, and homes were up 3.8 percent. We will likely need years of improved wage growth to account for recent price gains. List Price Received: Sellers received 96.0 percent of their original list price received at sale, a year-over-year increase of. percent. Sales prices should increase again in 207, leading to further increases in list price received. Millennials continue to command attention as the next wave of home buyers, yet the rate at which this massive population is entering the market has been less than stellar. This may be due to a cultural change away from settling into marriage and parenthood until later in life, high student loan debt, or even reservations about a home being a wise investment in the wake of what the last recession did to their elders. That said, some have suggested that this group is simply willing to wait longer to buy, thus skipping the entry-level purchase altogether to land in their preferred home. At the other end of the age and price spectrum, baby boomers are expected to make up nearly one-third of all buyers in 207. By and large, this group is not looking to invest in oversized homes, yet we could see improvement in higher price ranges as a hedge against inflation and risk. Shifting wealth away from the stock market into valuable homes may be seen as a safer bet during a transition of power and a period of pronounced change. Table of Contents 3 Quick Facts 5 Property Type Review 6 New Construction Review 7 Price Range Review 8 Area Overviews 9 Area Historical Median Prices Sponsored by North Country Credit Union. All data from NNEREN. Report 207 ShowingTime. 2

3 Quick Facts New Listings Pending Sales 3,899 3,95 3,980 2,27 2,35 2,335 2,657 2,79 3,498 3, % +.3% + 0.7% - 9.3% + 0.5% - 0.7% + 3.8% + 2.3% Top 5 Areas: Change in New Listings Top 5 Areas: Change in Pending Sales Westford % St. George % Hinesburg % Westford % Essex + 5.8% Charlotte % Milton + 2.% Shelburne + 8.2% Bolton 0.0% Bolton + 7.4% Top 5 Areas: Change in New Listings Top 5 Areas: Change in Pending Sales Bakersfield % Georgia % Georgia % Bakersfield % Isle La Motte + 9.0% Isle La Motte % St. Albans Town + 7.% St. Albans City % South Hero + 3.6% Grand Isle % Inventory of Homes for Sale At the end of the year.,394,452,426, Closed Sales 2,098 2,33 2,35 2,62 2, % -.8% - 9.3% % +.% - 0.7% + 2.8% + 4.2% Top 5 Areas: Change in Homes for Sale Westford % St. George % Hinesburg % Westford % South Burlington -.2% Shelburne % Williston - 3.6% Charlotte + 34.% Charlotte % Richmond % Top 5 Areas: Change in Homes for Sale Top 5 Areas: Change in Closed Sales Top 5 Areas: Change in Closed Sales Isle La Motte % Georgia % Alburgh + 4.3% North Hero % Averys Gore 0.0% St. Albans City % St. Albans City - 5.9% Sheldon % South Hero - 8.0% Fairfield % Sponsored by North Country Credit Union. All data from NNEREN. Report 207 ShowingTime. 3

4 Quick Facts Median Sales Price Average Sales Price $235,000 $236,000 $242,500 $249,900 $255,000 $264,347 $270,498 $274,037 $279,09 $288, % + 2.8% + 3.% + 2.0% + 2.3% +.3% +.8% + 3.4% Top 5 Areas: Change in Median Sales Price Top 5 Areas: Change in Avg. Sales Price Hinesburg % St. George % St. George + 2.5% Charlotte % Charlotte + 5.5% Shelburne + 7.3% Shelburne + 4.2% Huntington + 4.% Huntington +.0% Hinesburg + 3.9% Top 5 Areas: Change in Median Sales Price Top 5 Areas: Change in Avg. Sales Price Isle La Motte + 7.8% Isle La Motte % Berkshire % Franklin % Alburgh % Berkshire + 4.7% Franklin + 8.3% Swanton + 3.3% Highgate + 6.8% Bakersfield + 2.6% Percent of Original List Price Received Days on Market Until Sale 94.8% 94.8% 95.0% 96.0% % % 0.0% + 0.2% +.% +.4% +.4% - 0.7% - 4.7% Top 5 Areas: Change in Percent of Original List Price Received Bolton + 4.5% St. George % Huntington + 4.0% Shelburne % Underhill + 2.8% Charlotte + 6.9% Colchester + 2.6% Richmond +.4% Hinesburg + 2.6% Jericho - 8.0% Top 5 Areas: Change in Percent of Original List Price Received Top 5 Areas: Change in Days on Market Top 5 Areas: Change in Days on Market Berkshire + 8.5% Fletcher % Richford + 7.9% Fairfield + 3.5% St. Albans Town + 5.8% Isle La Motte + 9.8% Grand Isle + 4.9% Berkshire + 0.7% Highgate + 4.4% Highgate + 0.5% Sponsored by North Country Credit Union. All data from NNEREN. Report 207 ShowingTime. 4

5 Property Type Review Average Days on Market Days on Market Until Sale Average Days on Market This chart uses a rolling 2-month average for each data point Top Areas: Market Share in 206 Bolton 85.7% 2 South Burlington 63.2% 3 Shelburne 45.0% 4 Williston 4.2% 5 Chittenden County 28.% 6 Essex 25.4% 7 Richmond 23.% 8 Hinesburg 20.0% 9 Colchester 6.4% 0 Burlington 4.7% 2 3 Top Areas: Market Share in 206 St. Albans Town 27.6% 2 St. Albans City 8.8% 3 Fairfax 4.7% 4 Franklin County 9.5% 5 Swanton 9.3% 6 Georgia 5.3% 7 Alburgh 2.% 8 Grand Isle County 0.8% % + 3.8% 95.2% 98.% One-Year Change in Price One-Year Change in Price Pct. of Orig. Price Received Pct. of Orig. Price Received Median Sales Price Percent of Original List Price Received $245K $250K $253K $260K $266K 93.% 94.0% 93.7% 94.0% 95.2% 96.0% 96.8% 97.6% 97.6% 98.% $95K $95K $26K $25K $223K Sponsored by North Country Credit Union. All data from NNEREN. Report 207 ShowingTime. 5

6 New Construction Review Aug '4 36 Peak of New Construction Inventory New Construction Homes for Sale Drop in New Construction Inventory from Peak Top Areas: New Construction Market Share in 206 South Burlington 35.6% 2 Richmond 30.8% 4 Williston 23.5% 5 Colchester 23.0% 6 Jericho 22.2% 7 Chittenden County 8.0% 8 Hinesburg 6.0% 9 Essex 5.9% 0 Burlington.8% Milton 4.5% Top Areas: New Construction Market Share in St. Albans Town 36.2% 2 Georgia 2.% 3 Fairfax 20.6% 4 Franklin County 0.4% 5 St. Albans City 6.3% 6 Highgate 5.9% 7 North Hero 4.3% 9 Swanton.9% 0 Grand Isle County.6% Alburgh 0.0% % 95.5% Year-End Months Supply New Construction Year-End Months Supply Previously Owned Pct. of Orig. Price Received New Construction Pct. of Orig. Price Received Previously Owned Months Supply of Inventory Percent of Original List Price Received This chart uses a rolling 2-month average for each data point % 06% New Construction Previously Owned 04% % 00% % % 94% 92% New Construction Previously Owned 90% Sponsored by North Country Credit Union. All data from NNEREN. Report 207 ShowingTime. 6

7 Price Range Review $200,00 to $300,000 Price Range with Shortest Average Days on Market Until Sale Days on Market Until Sale by Price Range $500,00 and Above $500,00 and Above 7.7% Price Range with Longest Average Days on Market Until Sale 76 of Homes for Sale at Year End Priced $50,000 and Below Share of Homes for Sale $50,000 and Below 22% 20% - 7.8% One-Year Change in Homes for Sale Priced $50,000 and Below $300,00 to $500, % $200,00 to $300, % $50,00 to $200, % $50,000 and Below 55 2% $200,00 to $300, % Price Range with the Most Closed Sales Price Range with Strongest One-Year Change in Sales: $500,00 and Above $500,00 and Above - 2.4% Price Range with the Fewest Closed Sales Price Range with Weakest One-Year Change in Sales: $50,000 and Below Closed Sales by Price Range , $50,000 and Below $50,00 to $200,000 $200,00 to $300,000 $300,00 to $500,000 $500,00 and Above Sponsored by North Country Credit Union. All data from NNEREN. Report 207 ShowingTime. 7

8 Area Overviews Total Closed Sales Change from 205 Percent Condominium Percent New Construction Months Supply of Inventory Days on Market Until Sale Pct. of Orig. Price Received Northwestern Vermont 2, % 7.7% 3.% % Chittenden County, % 28.% 8.0% % Bolton % 85.7% % Burlington % 4.7%.8% % Charlotte % 2.7% 2.7% % Colchester % 6.4% 23.0% % Essex % 25.4% 5.9% % Hinesburg % 20.0% 6.0% % Huntington % % Jericho % % % Milton % 3.6% 4.5% % Richmond % 23.% 30.8% % Shelburne % 45.0% % South Burlington % 63.2% 35.6% % St. George % % Underhill % % Westford % % % Williston % 4.2% 23.5% % Winooski % % Grand Isle County % 0.8%.6% % Alburgh % 2.% % Grand Isle % % Isle La Motte % % North Hero % % % South Hero % % % Franklin County % 9.5% 0.4% % Bakersfield 2 0.0% % Berkshire - 5.4% % Enosburg % % Fairfax 7 +.4% 4.7% 20.6% % Fairfield % % Fletcher 5 0.0% % Franklin % % Georgia % 5.3% 2.% % Highgate % % % Richford % % Sheldon % % St. Albans City % 8.8% 6.3% % St. Albans Town % 27.6% 36.2% % Swanton + 26.% 9.3%.9% % Sponsored by North Country Credit Union. All data from NNEREN. Report 207 ShowingTime. 8

9 Area Historical Median Prices Change From 205 Change From 202 Northwestern Vermont $235,000 $236,000 $242,500 $249,900 $255, % + 8.5% Chittenden County $248,000 $255,500 $262,000 $269,950 $278, % + 2.% Bolton $207,000 $60,000 $73,500 $75,000 $67, % - 9.3% Burlington $245,000 $247,000 $266,000 $26,000 $266, % + 8.6% Charlotte $44,500 $53,500 $440,000 $420,000 $485, % + 9.9% Colchester $24,000 $253,500 $252,500 $264,900 $280, % + 6.2% Essex $255,000 $249,900 $255,000 $269,000 $269, % + 5.9% Hinesburg $298,000 $39,000 $290,000 $242,500 $307, % + 3.% Huntington $85,000 $242,000 $222,500 $28,900 $243,03 +.0% + 3.4% Jericho $278,500 $274,000 $264,250 $309,000 $30, % + 8.% Milton $225,000 $242,000 $220,000 $240,000 $247, % + 9.8% Richmond $25,000 $39,450 $290,000 $300,000 $269, % % Shelburne $349,000 $344,550 $447,000 $365,500 $47, % + 9.6% South Burlington $24,450 $242,000 $235,000 $265,500 $283, % + 7.2% St. George $289,000 $238,950 $260,50 $273,000 $33, % + 4.8% Underhill $280,000 $245,000 $254,000 $300,000 $308, % + 0.2% Westford $230,450 $277,000 $302,500 $30,000 $35, % % Williston $275,000 $289,900 $34,950 $32,500 $36,000 +.% + 4.9% Winooski $84,900 $95,000 $29,500 $20,000 $224, % + 2.% Grand Isle County $27,500 $29,250 $234,000 $200,000 $227, % + 4.6% Alburgh $68,000 $67,500 $28,500 $29,500 $73, % + 3.0% Grand Isle $276,750 $29,000 $23,950 $222,43 $250, % - 9.7% Isle La Motte $25,000 $83,750 $2,500 $,250 $242, % % North Hero $223,750 $209,000 $246,500 $249,500 $234,250-6.% + 4.7% South Hero $257,500 $329,950 $400,000 $279,000 $273, % + 6.2% Franklin County $82,625 $90,000 $84,900 $89,850 $20, % + 0.% Bakersfield $75,000 $74,950 $74,750 $74,000 $70, % - 2.9% Berkshire $59,250 $79,000 $35,900 $8,000 $6, % + 7.7% Enosburg $62,500 $58,000 $42,666 $43,250 $47, % % Fairfax $230,000 $25,000 $235,900 $255,000 $245, % + 6.5% Fairfield $72,500 $244,950 $226,750 $224,000 $64, % - 4.9% Fletcher $2,500 $20,000 $88,000 $233,000 $239, % + 3.0% Franklin $54,000 $7,500 $49,900 $37,500 $62, % + 5.6% Georgia $235,000 $236,950 $236,500 $232,250 $25, % + 6.8% Highgate $49,000 $75,000 $59,000 $62,250 $89, % % Richford $09,000 $63,000 $53,000 $0,80 $25, % + 5.6% Sheldon $89,900 $202,000 $79,700 $80,000 $207, % + 9.3% St. Albans City $53,750 $64,000 $6,950 $67,500 $68, % + 9.3% St. Albans Town $95,000 $220,000 $28,000 $200,000 $228, % + 7.% Swanton $74,000 $70,000 $73,500 $76,750 $85, % + 6.3% Sponsored by North Country Credit Union. All data from NNEREN. Report 207 ShowingTime. 9