Presentation Outline

Transcription

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2 Presentation Outline Introduction Growth of the Property Market City Updates Shanghai Beijing Chengdu Residential Township Development 2

3 3 Introduction

4 Early Head-start Early 1990s First forayed into China as part of Singapore consortium developing Suzhou Industrial Park 1994 Led international consortium in development of Spring City Lake and Golf Resort, which began operations in April Joined consortium which built Ocean Towers in Huangpu district, Shanghai Developed extensive business networks, amiable relationships with the local authorities, and a good reputation 4

5 Positioning for China 2000 Acquired three plots of residential land in Jingan district for condominium projects 2002 Acquired residential plot in Beijing 5

6 Moving into Second-tier Cities 2002 Acquired residential plot in Chengdu 2003 Established CityOne Township Development, a JV with HDB Corp to develop residential township projects in China Acquired site for residential development in Chengdu through CityOne Township Launched and completely sold One Park Avenue Fanned out to promising secondary cities like Chengdu 6

7 Recent Launches 2004 Launched and sold one block at 8 Park Avenue in Shanghai in January Launched The Seasons in Beijing and softlaunched The Waterfront in Chengdu in July Launching 3,500 more units in three cities from 8 Park Avenue, The Seasons and The Waterfront according to market demand 7

8 Keppel Land in China Presently, Keppel Land has investments of about $320 mil in China China now accounts for about 10% of total assets and more than 40% of overseas assets Earnings from China currently make up bulk of overseas net profit, which makes up about 30% of total profit Keppel Land is targeting to invest in growth cities with economic development and population growth 8

9 Key Data 2003 Figures Shanghai Beijing Chengdu Population (mil) GDP Growth Rate (%) GDP Per Capita (RMB) 46,755 31,613 17,914 Personal Disposable Income (RMB) 14,867 13,883 9,641 Growth of Disposable Income (%) Mortgage Rate (<5 years, %) Mortgage Rate (>5 years, %) Source : National Bureau of Statistics 9

10 Keppel Land s Presence in China HEILONGJIANG JILIN XINJIANG GANSU INNER MONGOLIA BEIJING HEBEI LIAONING QINGHAI NINGXIA SHANXI SHANDONG TIBET CHENGDU CHONGQING SICHUAN KUNMING SHAANXI HENAN JIANGSU ANHUI GUIZHOU HUBEI HUNAN ZHEJIANG JIANGXI FUJIAN SHANGHAI YUNNAN GUANGXI GUANGDONG 10

11 Growth of the Property Market 11

12 Emergence of Private Housing Sector Shift from welfare housing to private housing Welfare housing abolished in late 1990s Government reforms included tax incentives and subsidies to purchase homes Availability of affordable mortgage rates Mortgage period of up to 30 years Rates at about 5% Merging of local and foreign markets in Shanghai, Beijing and Chengdu Growth of secondary market 12

13 High Growth in Major Cities Spreading to Secondary Cities. Demand for quality housing has soared with affluence Buying activity is not confined to the coastal and major cities like Shanghai and Beijing but also extended into inner municipalities 13

14 14 Mega-regions of China

15 Stabilising Measures Measures have been imposed to cool overheated sectors like real estate Supply Controls All land sales to be conducted through land auctions or public listings to eliminate private transfers of land Apart from price, brand name, quality and track record also counts Presale permits for high-rise developments given only when superstructure construction is two-thirds completed Developers who have obtained land-use rights through private negotiations with the government required to pay land transfer fee by 31 August Land registry set up to track transactions

16 Stabilising Measures Credit Controls Developers to put up 35% of capital for projects Four certificates needed before developers can get project loans Land-use approval certificate Planning approval certificate Construction approval certificate Commencement of construction approval certificate Mortgage quantum capped at 80% of value of property and monthly repayment at 50% of income Banks upped interest rates. Higher mortgage rates for second and third properties More stringent checks on buyers financial standing 16

17 Stabilising Measures Reduce Speculation Since end-april 2004, no sub-sale of new units in Shanghai is allowed before project is completed and land title is issued Developers and homebuyers required to register home sales and purchase contracts on a central property exchange online registration system in Shanghai to increase transparency of sales Provision of low-cost housing to address affordability concerns 17

18 Impact of Stabilising Measures Possible consolidation in the high-end market Measures to improve market transparency and ensure healthy and sustainable growth of the property market in the long-term Playing field levelled among developers Eliminate property developers with poor standing and enable financially strong developers to gain greater market share Weak developers will try to dispose of land Measures also curb speculative buying activities 18

19 Impact on Keppel Land Minimal impact on project financing on KLL Generally do not require high loan quantum to fund projects Currently, projects in China funded internally and by foreign banks instead of Chinese banks If required, will be able to secure loans from Chinese banks Diversification into secondary cities and participation in residential township development expected to cushion impact from slowdown in economy Impact of loan cap of 80% of housing price for homebuyers on sales of KLL s projects not significant as target buyers generally do not take up such large loan amounts 19

20 Market Outlook Property market is supported by strong fundamentals and high level of demand Property prices in major cities will continue to rise but not at the same pace as last year Secondary cities may see better growth 20

21 Market Outlook Overall demand drivers :- Homeownership aspirations Desire to upgrade to better quality housing with increasing affluence arising from strong economic growth Rapid urbanisation Urban population grew from 21% to 36% of total population in past 20 years Expansion of middle-class (about 10-20% of the total population) and expatriate community in major cities Growth of middle class estimated at 30% p.a. New household formations Half of population in household formation age bracket of

22 Rapid Urbanisation Nearly 40% of Chinese Population Living in Urban Area Urban population as % of total population 22

23 Demographics Above 65 8% Half of population is in the household formation age bracket of years Age % Age % Age % 23 Source : China National Population Census, 2001

24 City Updates - Shanghai 24

25 Awards Won - One Park Ave Gold Award in Environment category of Top 10 Properties in Shanghai by Hong Kong s Da Gong Bao newspaper Fully-fitted Award by Shanghai s Municipal Government Top 50 Residential Projects in Shanghai by Shanghai City Real Estate Exchange Centre 25

26 Shanghai Residential Market Estimated demand for 2004 : mil sm or approximately 185, ,000 units Average housing prices highest among all Chinese cities at RMB5,135 psm Increased 0.3% from RMB5,118 psm in 2003 Prices of new projects as at July 2004 :- Luxury-end : Above RMB 16,500 psm Upper-middle end : RMB 7,000-16,499 psm Lower-middle end : RMB 4,000-6,999 psm Low-cost housing : Below RMB 4,000 psm Prices expected to increase steadily in 2H

27 Outlook for Shanghai Market Specific demand drivers :- Urbanisation and migration Government has annual target of 50, ,000 households Rise of middle-income families Upgrader demand has accounted for about threequarters of overall housing demand since 1995 Preference for larger units 27

28 Outlook for Shanghai Market Investment demand from investors from other provinces and foreign investors No. of expatriates and non-shanghai residents in Shanghai : 5 million High employment rates and wage growth of about 50% in past 3 years Average monthly per capita income up by about 50% in past three years Doubling of savings deposits over same period 28

29 Upcoming - 8 Park Ave Sold 1 block of 85 one-bedroom units in January 2004 Two blocks of 145 units to be launched in 2H2004 Comprises 2- to 4-bedroom units, duplexes and penthouses with sizes ranging from 100 sm to 296 sm Estimated average selling price for whole project: Around RMB13,000 psm 29

30 City Updates - Beijing 30

31 Beijing Residential Market Estimated demand for 2004 : mil sm or approximately 150, ,000 units Price improving with 8th consecutive month of continued rise in Beijing Composite Property Index (BCPI) and Residential Index (RI) in June Prices of new projects as at August 2004 :- Luxury-end : Above RMB 10,000 psm Upper-middle end : RMB 7,000-9,900 psm Lower-middle end : RMB 5,000-6,900 psm Low-end : Below RMB 5,000 psm Price range in Chaoyang district:- Villas : RMB 10,000-25,000 psm Luxury : >RMB 10,000 psm Upper-middle : RMB 7,000 9,900 psm Lower-middle : RMB 5,000 6,900 psm 31

32 Outlook for Beijing Market Specific demand drivers : Rising affluence of local Chinese and growing number of foreigners in Beijing Beijing residents have the highest savings per capita of RMB70,000, far eclipsing the national average of RMB8,400 No.of expatriates and non-beijing residents in Beijing: 3.1 mil Fast expanding resale market Positive effects in lead up to 2008 Olympics Improvements in transportation and infrastructure Rapid growth of the consumer market 32

33 The Seasons Located in Wang Jing Estate, the largest township in Beijing Olympic / Asian Village Commercial Zone Walking distance to MRT station Site area of 71,984 sm, GFA of 254,969 sm Nan Hu Bei Er Jie Comprises 1,859 condominium units targeted at middle- to upper-income homebuyers Tai Yang Gong Dong Shun Rd Airport Expressway Wang Jing Street Guang Shun Bei Da Dao Jiang Tai Rd Fu Tong East St Siemens Fu Tong West St Arts Centre Holiday Inn Lido Wang Jing Outer Ring Rd Wang Jing MRT Station Wang Jing West Rd Nan Hu Qu West Rd The Seasons 4th Ring Road Jing Quan Expressway 33

34 The Seasons Launched 183 units in July 2004 Some 86% sold (158 units) Average price : RMB7,300 psm 34

35 City Updates - Chengdu 35

36 Historical Background Popularly known as Land of Abundance History rich in industry and commerce Home of Chinese classic Romance of Three Kingdoms First city to benefit from the Central Government s Go West policy to accelerate the development of western China 36

37 Chengdu Today Fourth largest city in China with more than 10 mil population, after Chongqing, Shanghai and Beijing Magnet city of West China - Important inland economic centre, seen as entry point to western region Most livable city in West China High GDP growth of 13% and disposable income of RMB9,641 in 2003 Ranked No. 3 in China in terms of per capita car ownership Low food costs allowing for high consumption Presence of international foreign retailers Carrefour, Metro, Price Mart and Ito-Yokado Willingness to spend on property, fashion and food 37

38 Chengdu Residential Market Between January and June 2004, demand rose 15.6% y-o-y to 3.01 mil sm or approximately 30,100 residential units Expected demand for 2004 : about 9-10 mil sm or 90, ,000 units Secondary housing market becoming increasingly active 38

39 Chengdu Residential Market Average prices increased 9.89% yoy to RMB2,355 psm Current prices of new projects as at June 2004 :- Upper-middle to high-end : RMB 4,000-6,000 psm Middle-end market : RMB 3,100-3,900 psm Low-middle end : RMB 2,500-3,099 psm Prices expected to increase steadily with demand and availability of better quality housing 39

40 Outlook for Chengdu Market Specific demand drivers :- Strong aspirations for better quality housing among locals People from other provinces relocating due to attractive lifestyle Half of properties in Chengdu bought by nonresidents Easing of regulations to become a Chengdu resident Government plans to increase residents per capita living area Potential demand of 10 mil sm or about 100,000 units p.a. until

41 Awards Won - The Waterfront 41 Awarded the Best Landscaping Concept and Design by the International Federation of Parks and Recreation Administration in July 2004 Named the Most Anticipated Project in Chengdu in 2004 by Chengdu Shang Bao in March 2004

42 The Waterfront Located in south-east Chengdu, less than 10 minutes drive to the city centre 2nd Ring Rd 1st Ring Road To Airport Tian Fu Guang Chang Ren Ming Nan Road 3.5km to city centre The Waterfront Commands frontage of the Funan River Site area of 40,907 sm, GFA of 166,138 sm Comprises 1,143 one- to four-bedroom condominium units with unit sizes ranging from 75 to 250 sm Targeted at upperincome homebuyers 42

43 The Waterfront Launched in Chengdu in mid-july 2004 and launched in Singapore on 11 Sep 2004 Some 218 units sold Average price : RMB5,000 psm 43

44 The Waterfront Lagoon Clubhouse 44

45 Residential Township Development 45

46 Push for Residential Township Opportunities Specific demand drivers :- Economic growth spreading beyond key gateway cities to second-tier cities Wealth effect spreading to middle to lower-middle income groups Rapid urbanisation and government housing reforms (eg. incentives and affordable housing mortgages) Provide impetus for well-planned and well-managed housing estates 46 KLL will focus on promising cities with rapid economic and population growth

47 First Residential Township, Chengdu Why Chengdu? High GDP growth of 13% in 2003 and 13.5% in 1H2004 High disposable income of RMB9,641 Growth of expatriates and residents from other provinces Government spending RMB12.3 bil to develop city s infrastructure in

48 Residential Township in Chengdu Located in Jinjiang District, in the south-eastern sector of Chengdu, at the junction of the 3rd Ring Rd and Cheng Long Rd In line with the government s policy to promote eastern sector of city Next to proposed suburban centre About 15 minutes drive from the city centre and with easy access to major roads Close proximity to the Sichuan Normal University 48

49 Residential Township in Chengdu 42-ha site to be developed in three phases Total of about 8,000 units Comprises a mix of low- and high-rise apartment blocks as well as commercial buildings Supporting amenities include a primary school, kindergartens, retail component, a market, a clubhouse, parks, and carpark facilities Transportation network is established 49

50 Residential Township in Chengdu Expected launch : Parcel 1 (970 units) : 1H2005 Parcel 2 (1,002 units) : 1H2006 Target group : Chengdu s rising middle-income group, comprising mid-level civil servants, managers, young couples, retirees, faculty and staff of nearby Sichuan Normal University as well as small business proprietors 50

51 51 Residential Township in Chengdu

52 52 Thank You

53 53 This presentation may contain statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements, which are based on the current views of Management on future developments and events.