Research & Forecast Report SINGAPORE OFFICE Q1 2016 Sharper fall in office rents and capital values Joanna Chen Manager, Research and Advisory The office market faces a critical juncture in the next few quarters as softer occupier demand and peaking supply exert downward pressure on the sector. Rental levels across the board fell by at least 2.0% in Q1 2016. Meanwhile, average occupancy of office buildings, excluding Beach Road, Shenton Way and Tanjong Pagar, also fell over the same period due to competition from new buildings in both the CBD and non-cbd locations. We forecast up to 15.0% of decline in gross office rents by the end of the year. With the new supply set to increase, we believe the current climate presents occupiers an opportunity to enter into lease negotiations early to obtain favourable rates and terms before the market turns. 2016 Forecast at a Glance CBD Premium CBD Average monthly gross office rents Imputed average capital value Average monthly gross office rents Imputed average capital value 15.0% 3.0% 15.0% 3.0% Supply Demand Occupancy Rate Incentives Note: All forecast here in refers to islandwide, except for rents and capital value.
Leasing Market and Rental Values Office rentals falls for the third quarter since Q3 2015 Average Monthly Gross Office Rents of Premium and Office Buildings in CBD aggregated value of the lease for Premium and office buildings in the core CBD in Q1 2016 ranged between 4.4% and 12.1%, depending on the space and lease term. This typically translates to 3 to 6 months of rent-free period. Comparatively, incentive levels for Premium and office buildings in the core CBD in Q3 2015 were more subdued ranging between 6.9% and 7.4%. Landlords are offering more generous incentive packages in this quarter. Further rental declines are anticipated going forward and occupiers are presented with opportunities and options with a strong pipeline which will deliver record volume of new stock. Strategic renewals and rightsizing will be the focus of many occupiers throughout the coming 12 to 18 months. New upcoming supply and slower demand create a tenant market where occupiers are presented with more opportunities when it comes to Premium and office buildings. Potential Upcoming Supply of Key Developments Net Lettable Area per sq ft 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2016 2017 2018 5-year average new supply Average monthly gross office rents in Singapore registered a decline for the third consecutive quarter, as rentals for office buildings took a hit from waning demand and upcoming supply. The QOQ drop in rentals for Premium, and office buildings have been escalating between a range of -3.1% and -1.7% in Q3 2015 to a range of -6.0% and -2.0% in Q1 2016. Incentives for Premium and office premises have also increased as landlords attempt to retain current tenants and attract new ones amidst softening demand for office space and greater competition from new buildings such as DUO Tower and Guoco Tower, which are expected to be completed this year. Based on Colliers International s research, after taking into account rent-free periods, the amount of incentives on the New upcoming supply and slower demand create a tenant market where occupiers are presented with more opportunities when it comes to Premium and office buildings. Occupancy level of Premium and office buildings looks to drop below 85% in the next few quarters With the exception of Beach Road, Premium and offices in Singapore are showing signs of increasing vacancies against a backdrop of impending new office supply coupled with an increasing amount of shadow space. Largely due to a smaller base of office buildings in Marina/City Hall, the occupancy level for the buildings in this precinct fell the most from 97.1% in Q4 2015 to 85.5% in Q1 2016. While lease renewals are typically high, there have been some movements from current tenants to pursue office space in other locations. Daimler SEA recently relocated from Centennial Tower to lease approximately 57,000 sq ft in Westgate. Meanwhile, more fluctuations in occupancy levels across the island are likely to persist in the next few quarters. The new office supply scheduled in 2016 (2.69 million sq ft) and 2017 (2.4 million sq ft) will be more than twice of the five-year average new supply of 1.08 million sq ft. With more than half of the new supply in 2016 and 2017 situated in the CBD, office buildings in this precinct are likely to see the most tenant movement. New key developments include Guoco Tower with about 890,000 sq ft of NLA and Marina One with about 1.88 million sq ft of NLA. DUO Tower with about 570,000 sq ft of NLA is situated at the fringe of CBD on Beach Road. 2 Singapore Research & Forecast Report Q1 2016 Office Colliers International
Average Monthly Gross Office Rents: Q1 2016 Suburban 4.89 4.24 2.0% 2.1% 95.0% 0.7% City Fringe 7.32 6.85 3.7% 2.4% 94.3% 3.8% Raffles Place/New Downtown Premium 10.59 9.50 8.07 6.0% 3.6% 3.6% Premium 93.2% 0.3% 95.8% 2.5% Orchard Road 8.45 8.11 2.8% 2.2% 98.1% 1.8% Shenton Way/Tanjong Pagar 8.24 7.43 3.6% 2.1% 98.7% 0.5% Marina/City Hall 9.25 3.2% 85.5% 11.6% Beach Road 7.56 6.80 3.2% 2.0% 94.1% 1.9% *Average office rents are based on SGD per sq ft. 3 Singapore Research & Forecast Report Q1 2016 Office Colliers International
As at Q1 2016, the pre-commitment levels of these buildings have been relatively modest at less than 40%. Take-up levels for DUO Tower remain the highest at about 30%, while the precommitment level for Guoco Tower is about 18%. Tenants moving into these buildings largely consist of companies already situated in the CBD, such as Hong Leong Bank and K Line, creating more shadow spaces in the precinct. Colliers expects competition in the office market to heat up further in the next few months as landlords of new developments continue to secure occupiers to fill up the new quality space. Meanwhile, landlords of existing developments concentrate on retaining existing tenants. On the back of a generally cautious business outlook and increasing supply, average occupancy levels of Premium and office buildings are expected to drop and may decline to below the 85% level by end of 2017. Demographics of large occupiers shift as the banking sector cuts office space MAJOR OCCUPIER MOVEMENTS IN Q1 2016 BUILDING Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 2 NET FLOOR AREA TENANT (PER SQ FT) IBM 60,000 Westgate Tower Daimler SEA 57000 Singapore Land Tower Boardroom Limited 25,000 Guoco Tower AAPC 21,000 Guoco Tower Bunge 20,000 Guoco Tower K Line 20,000 South Beach Tower Facebook 17,000 Guoco Tower Manpower Group 12,000 Suntec Tower 4 Panalpina Asia Pacific Management 10,400 The rising downside risks from the financial sector and layoffs from large banks continue to dampen the current soft office market. As the growth rate for the finance sector declines, there has been a spurt of restructuring and early pre-term of space seen in the CBD. To date, while some of these spaces have yet to be fully filled, others have been filled by varying industries outside the banking sector. About 15,000 sq ft on Level 10 on One George Street is occupied by a local co-working space provider named The Great Room and the other 5,000 sq ft of space on Level 10 may be offered to a TMT tenant. About 9,000 sq ft of space in One Raffles Quay that RBS used to occupy may also be offered to an overseas government agency. This shifting change in the tenant mix of key large office space, from the typical banking sector, has been increasing since early 2015. Tenants from other industries were also observed to expand their foothold in the CBD. TMT tenants such as AirBnB has expanded their office space of 13,000 sq ft in 158 Cecil Street to occupy a larger take up of 30,000 sq ft. Uber took 20,000 sq ft in Mapletree Anson. While the banking sector continues to play an important role in the core CBD office market, the demographics of key large office space occupiers are slowly shifting to include tenants from other industries. There is an increasing need to focus on attracting key industries outside the banking sector as these industries increase their presence and expand their footprint in the CBD. There is an increasing need to focus on attracting key industries outside the banking sector as these industries increase their presence and expand their footprint in the CBD. Strata Sales and Capital Values Average Capital Values for Premium and Office Space in Raffles Place/New Downtown In the last few quarters, a few Premium and office buildings have borne the brunt of business consolidation in the banking sector. One George Street saw a decline in occupancy as Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) gave up all of its 60,000 sq ft of office space on Level 9 and 10. One Raffles Quay also saw a drop in occupancy previously as the bank vacated Levels 21 and 22. Similarly, about 20,000 sq ft was left vacant in Ocean Financial Centre when ANZ consolidated and reduced their occupied space in the building. Outside the CBD, BOAML vacated a level in Harbourfront Building. 4 Singapore Research & Forecast Report Q1 2016 Office Colliers International
Average Capital Values for Premium and Office Space in Raffles Place/New Downtown 1.0% QOQ Premium SGD 2,793 per sq ft SGD 2,509 per sq ft 0.9% QOQ Downward pressure on average capital value of Premium and office buildings Average imputed capital value for Premium and office buildings in Raffles Place/New Downtown CBD saw its first decline after holding up for three quarters since Q2 2015. Average imputed capital value of office buildings in this basket decreased 1.0% QOQ in Q1 2016. Going forward, the average capital value is likely to decline amidst softening rents and higher vacancies. It is expected that the imputed average capital value will decline between a range of 0.5% and 1.0% QOQ from Q2 2016 to Q1 2018. Office occupiers remain generally cost conscious, their demand for office space continues to illustrate their need to right-size and structure flexibility for future leases. There is a strong office pipeline scheduled to enter the market, and this means two things for occupiers; start early and act now to secure strategic leases in new developments at attractive rental levels or snap up centrally located, good quality office space at inviting rates. - Duncan White, Director, Office Services Colliers International Singapore 5 Singapore Research & Forecast Report Q1 2016 Office Colliers International
554 offices in 66 countries on 6 continents United States: 153 Canada: 34 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 231 EMEA: 112 $2.5 billion in annual revenue MARKET CONTACT: Duncan White (CEA Reg No. R022672Z) Director Office Services duncan.white@colliers.com Anthea To Senior Associate Director Research and Advisory anthea.to@colliers.com Colliers International Singapore 1 Raffles Place #45-00 One Raffles Place Singapore 046818 TEL +65 6223 2323 FAX +65 6222 4901 RCB No. 198105965E 2 billion square feet under management 16,000 professionals and staff About Colliers International Group Inc. Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI; TSX: CIG) is an industry leading global real estate services company with more than 16,000 skilled professionals operating in 66 countries. With an enterprising culture and significant employee ownership, Colliers professionals provide a full range of services to real estate occupiers, owners and investors worldwide. Services include strategic advice and execution for property sales, leasing and finance; global corporate solutions; property, facility and project management; workplace solutions; appraisal, valuation and tax consulting; customized research; and thought leadership consulting. Colliers professionals think differently, share great ideas and offer thoughtful and innovative advice that help clients accelerate their success. Colliers has been ranked among the top 100 outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals Global Outsourcing for 11 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. colliers.com Copyright 2016 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.