Canadian Housing Observer IMMIGR ATION IS STRONGLY LINKED TO POPULATION GROWTH POPULATION GROWTH IS A MAJOR DRIVER OF HOUSEHOLD GROWTH Natural increase and net migration (thousands) Average yearly growth (per cent) 3 3 Net migration (left scale) Population growth (right scale) Natural increase (left scale)....3....9.. 3. 3... Population (age +) Households.7.. 99 99 99 993 99 99 99 997 99 999 3 7 9. Data are for -month period ending on June 3 of stated year. Natural increase is the difference between births and deaths. Net migration is the difference between population growth and natural increase. 9-9- 9-9-7 97-7 97-9- 9-9 99-9 99- - Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics (CANSIM) Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics (Census of ) 3 HOUSEHOLD FORMATION INFLUENCES NEW HOME COMPLETIONS GROWTH IN REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME SLOWED IN 9 Five-year average (s) Annual growth (per cent) Household formation New home completions 7 Employment Real disposable income 3 - - -3 99 99 99 993 99 99 99 997 99 999 3 7 9 9-9- 9-9-7 97-7 97-9- 9-9 99-9 99- - Employment growth calculated from average monthly employment during the year. Income growth based on quarterly average during the year. Real disposable income = disposable income/consumption deflator. Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics (Census of ) Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics (CANSIM) Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Overview HOUSING CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT STABILIZED IN 9 MLS SALES AND RENOVATION ACTIVITY REMAINED ROBUST Billions of dollars Billions of dollars Thousands of units 3 3 Consumption Investment Repairs (left scale) MLS Sales (right scale) Alterations and improvements (left scale) 3 3 99 99 99 993 99 99 99 997 99 999 3 7 9 3 7 9 MLS is a registered trademark of CREA. Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics (CANSIM) Source: Statistics, CANSIM; Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) 7 HOUSING STARTS DECLINED IN 9 Thousands of starts 3 Singles Semi Row Apartment 9 9 9 Singles Multiples 9 9 9 9 9 9 British Columbia 9 99 99 99 993 99 99 99 997 99 999 3 7 9 Thousands of starts Source: CMHC (Starts and Completions Survey) Mortgage and Housing Corporation 7
Canadian Housing Observer AVER AGE RESALE HOUSING PRICES REMAINED HIGH AVERAGE RESALE HOUSING PRICES VARIED WIDELY ACROSS CANADA IN 9 Thousands of dollars 3 3 Range - 9 9 value 9, $, $, 7,37 Thunder Bay Barrie Brantford Kitchener St. Catharines - Niagara Hamilton Oshawa Ottawa Gatineau Sherbrooke Saguenay 39, $, 3, Data for CMAs range from to 9. Source: Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Federation of Real Estate Boards (QFREB) by Centris 3,333 $3, 3,37 3, Ottawa 9 SELLER'S MARKETS PREDOMINATED IN 9 Hamilton 9,9 Oshawa 7, Kitchener 9, Barrie 3,99 7,9 7,,799 Sales-to-new-listings ratio (per cent) 9 7 Range -9 9 value St. Catharines - Niagara,79 3,37, 9,3,37,97 $,, 39,9,39,9 7,3, 93, Brantford Gatineau Sherbrooke 3 Saguenay 7,7,9, 3,9,3 3,9 Thunder Bay $, Thunder Bay Barrie Brantford Kitchener St. Catharines - Niagara Hamilton Oshawa Ottawa Gatineau Sherbrooke Saguenay Data for CMAs range from to 9. Seller s market > % Balanced market - % Buyer s market < % $ Source: Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Federation of Real Estate Boards (QFREB) by Centris Source: Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), Federation of Real Estate Boards (QFREB) by Centris Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Overview VARIABLE MORTGAGE RATES DECLINED IN 9 RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE CREDIT OUTSTANDING CONTINUED TO GROW IN 9 Billions of dollars 9 7 -year fixed mortgage rate Variable mortgage rate -year government bond rate, 9 7 Other Credit Unions and Caisses Populaires NHA MBS Chartered banks 3 3 3 7 9 3 7 9 Source: CMHC, Bank of, CANNEX Includes trust and mortgage loan companies, life insurance companies, pension funds, special purpose corporations, non-depository credit intermediaries and other financial institutions. Source: CMHC and adapted from Bank of 3 THE RATIO OF MORTGAGE PAYMENTS TO DISPOSABLE INCOME FELL THEN REBOUNDED THE PERCENTAGE OF RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGES THREE MONTHS OR MORE IN ARREARS INCREASED IN 9 BUT REMAINED BELOW HISTORICAL LEVELS Mortgage payment to income ratio 9-9 Average mortgage payment to income ratio.7. 3. 3..3. 9Q 99Q 99Q 99Q 99Q 993Q 99Q 99Q 99Q 997Q 99Q 999Q Q Q Q 3Q Q Q Q 7Q Q 9Q. The monthly mortgage payment is calculated using the prevailing MLS average price and the five-year fixed posted mortgage rate prevailing in each period, assuming a per cent downpayment and year amortization. The income figure is personal disposable (after tax) income per worker.. 99 99 993 99 99 99 997 99 999 3 7 9 Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics (CANSIM), unpublished data, and CREA (MLS ) Source: Canadian Bankers Association Mortgage and Housing Corporation 9
Canadian Housing Observer OWNER OCCUPIED CONDOMINIUMS INCREASINGLY POPULAR Thousands Owner-occupied condominiums as a per cent of all households by age group (),, Owner-occupied condominums (left-hand scale) Condominium share of ownership market (right-hand scale) All condominiums Apartment condominiums Other condominiums -9 - -9 3-3 3-39 - -9 - -9 - -9 7-7 7+ Age of household maintainer 9 9 99 99 The household maintainer is the person or one of the people in the household responsible for major household payments. All-CMAs Abbotsford Kelowna Hamilton Ottawa-Gatineau Kitchener Brantford St. Catharines-Niagara Barrie Oshawa Sherbrooke Thunder Bay Saguenay All-CMAs Brantford Sherbrooke Barrie Hamilton Kelowna St. Catharines-Niagara Ottawa-Gatineau Kitchener Abbotsford Saguenay Oshawa Thunder Bay 3 3 3 7 Owner-occupied condominiums as per cent of owner households, change in number of owner-occupied condominiums, - Source: CMHC, adapted from Statistics (Census of ) Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Overview RENTAL VACANCY RATES WERE HIGHEST IN 9 IN ALBERTA AND NEW BRUNSWICK AVERAGE RENTS FOR A TWO-BEDROOM APARTMENT RANGED WIDELY IN 9 7 Range -9 9 value Vacancy Rate: Above National Average National Average - 3% Below National Average $,,9 3,99 $,,9 British Columbia Ottawa,, $,, 9 Barrie Vacancy rates are for privately initiated apartment structures of three or more units. Source: CMHC (Rental Market Survey) Oshawa Kitchener 99 9 9 7 $9 9 97 77 7 Kelowna 7 AVERAGE PRIVATE APARTMENT VACANCY RATES GENERALLY INCREASED IN 9 Oct. Oct. 9 Hamilton St. Catharines - Niagara Brantford 7 Thunder Bay 7 3 77 7 $ $7 3 3 9 7 77 9 7 9 Abbotsford Gatineau $ 3 Sherbrooke CMA avg. Ottawa Saguenay $ Vacancy rates are for privately initiated apartment structures of three or more units. CMA average is the weighted average of the rates in 3 Census Metropolitan Areas. Source: CMHC (Rental Market Survey) Source: CMHC (Rental Market Survey) Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Canadian Housing Observer 9 MOST URBAN HOUSEHOLDS IN CORE HOUSING NEED ARE IN THE LOWEST INCOME QUINTILE PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND SASKATCHEWAN HAD THE LOWEST INCIDENCES OF URBAN CORE HOUSING NEED IN 7 7 Core Middle.% Moderate.% 3.% 7.% British Columbia Lowest.%.% 3.%.%.% 9.% 7.% New Brunswick.% 9.%.%.%.% 3.9%.% 9.7% Nova Scotia..%.% Prince Edward.% 3.%.% 7.7% There are no households in core in the upper- and highest-income quintiles. DEPTH AND INCIDENCE OF CORE HOUSING NEED CAN TELL DIFFERENT STORIES, ESPECIALLY FOR MONTRÉAL HIGHER AFFORDABILITY STANDARDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER ESTIMATES OF HOUSING NEED Average incidence, 7 (per cent) Median depth, 7 (dollars) 3, 3,,,, In core, 3% standard In, 3% standard In, % standard In, % standard In, % standard, All urban Ottawa - Gatineau,9,,3, 7, 3, 3, Average incidence of core (%) left scale Median depth of core ($) right scale Source: CMHC (Census-based housing indicators and data) Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Overview 3 RENTERS AND THOSE WHO CHANGED TENURE HAD THE HIGHEST INCIDENCES OF EVER LIVING IN CORE HOUSING NEED BETWEEN 7 FEMALE LONE PARENT FAMILIES AND UNATTACHED INDIVIDUALS HAD THE HIGHEST INCIDENCES OF EVER LIVING IN CORE HOUSING NEED BETWEEN 7 of people of people 9 7 3. 9.9 93. 9. 3.9...9..7.. 7.3.3.. 9..7 9. 9. 9.9 9. 3. 77. 73. 7... 3. 3. 9. 3.9..9.9.9. 3.. 7.. 3...7 7. CANADA (Urban) Owners - without mortgage all three years Owners - with change in mortgage status Owners - with mortgage all three years Changed tenure Renters CANADA (Urban) Senior couple with no children or other relatives Non-senior couple with no children or other relatives Non-senior couple with children Changed family type Unattached individual (Non-senior male) Unattached individual (Non-senior female) Unattached individual (Senior female) Female lone-parent family (none of the three years) Occasionally (one or two years) Persistently (all three years) (none of the three years) Occasionally (one or two years) Persistently (all three years) Components may not add to per cent due to rounding. Components may not add to per cent due to rounding. MOST CORE HOUSING NEED IS TEMPORARY - -7-7 Persistently 3% Persistently 7% years in core 7% years in core 9% years in core % year in core 3% 3 years in core % Occasionally 7% Occasionally 73% years in core % Occasionally (one or two years) Persistently (all three years) Data are for urban. Components may not add to per cent due to rounding. Mortgage and Housing Corporation 3
Canadian Housing Observer of households HOUSEHOLDS PRINCIPAL HEATING FUEL HAS CHANGED OVER TIME 7 RESIDENTIAL HEATING FUEL CHOICE VARIES ACROSS THE COUNTRY 9 7 3 3 977 979 9 93 9 97 99 99 993 99 997 999 3 7 British Columbia Wood Piped gas Electricity Oil or other liquid fuel Oil or other liquid fuel Wood Natural gas (piped gas) Other or unavailable Electricity Source: Statistics, (Survey of Household Facilities and Equipment (977-997) and Survey of Household Spending (99-)) Source: Statistics (Survey of Household Spending, ) THE ENERGY COST COMPONENT OF SHELTER COSTS VARIES BY PROVINCE AND OVER TIME Energy costs as per cent of shelter costs Dollars per year, 3 3 $, $, $, $3, $, $, $,7 $, $,7 $, $,,,,,, British Columbia, 999 3 7 Annual cost in dollars shown above each bar. Note that energy costs are sometimes part of rental payments or condo fees and, in these cases, are not included in these figures. Energy Costs (left scale) Total Shelter Costs (left scale) Share (right scale) Source: Statistics (Survey of Household Spending, ) Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Overview 9 9 7 3 THE SHARE OF SINGLE DETACHED HOMES IS LARGEST IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR AND SMALLEST IN QUEBEC British Columbia 3 9 7 3 ABOUT PER CENT OF CANADIAN HOUSING IS UNDER 3 YEARS OLD British Columbia Single-detached Single-attached Apartment Other - 9 9-9 - 9 9-9 Before 9 Source: Statistics (Survey of Household Spending, ) Source: Statistics (Survey of Household Spending, ) 3 TWO THIRDS OF APARTMENTS ARE AT LEAST 3 YEARS OLD Single-detached houses Apartments Other multiple dwellings 9% 7% % % % % 3% % 9% % 3% 3% 3% 39% 33% before 9 9 to 9 9 to 9 9 to and later Other multiple dwellings includes semi-detached houses, row houses, duplexes and single-attached houses. Source: Statistics (Census of, ) Mortgage and Housing Corporation