THE JBM FLORIDA MULTIFAMILY BROKERAGE QUARTERLY Year End Jamie B. May Chairman & CEO JBM@JBM.com T: 8.8.000 C: 8..000 Eddie Yang Principal & Executive Director Edward.Yang@JBM.com T: 07.6.8000 C: 97.79.096 Jonathan Barclay Associate Director Jonathan.Barclay@JBM.com T: 8.8.00 C: 8.9.9 Multifamily housing investment market trends & highlights Current Trends Following three years of robust revenue growth and occupancy gains, many investors have begun to adjust expectations to sustainable operating assumptions. Core properties in primary markets have maintained solid performance and perennially low cap rates as steady economic expansion and employment gains supported the apartment sector. And, while in abundance of equity capital remains available for leading markets, yields tend to be slim and returns do not always pencil favorably. Investors seeking higher yields have more aggressively targeted assets in secondary and tertiary markets where the recovery potential has not yet been fully priced into deals. Valueadd strategies may offer stronger returns, but investors must work harder and smarter to realize the upside potential in a crowded and competitive marketplace. Sellers have been slow to bring properties to market, and pressured by a dearth of available opportunities, the average cap rate for value-add investments recently dipped significantly, signaling a recovery in non-premium assets. Apartment transactions constituted about 0 percent of all commercial property sales, increasing 7 percent to nearly $7.8 billion through the third quarter, with portfolio transactions driving much of the increase. The average cap rate fell 0 basis points to 6.0 percent; while the average price per unit climbed. percent to just shy of $,000. Investors made a notable surge into Class B and C assets, with the sales volume for these properties rising 9 percent. Momentum for Class B/C product in primary metros lifted the median price per unit. percent to $96,000 and reduced the cap rate 0 basis points to 6. percent. Class A sales volume trended down across all market tiers except primary, where it climbed percent. However, the median price per Class A unit increased. percent to $,000 with the cap rate holding steady at. percent. Sales volume in secondary markets posted modest declines while tertiary market activity surged to percent of total sales, up from percent in. Market Forecast JBM has listed, marketed & sold more than 0,000 units throughout Florida. Call 8.8.000 Office locations in Tampa, Orlando & Naples Consumer Spending, Housing and Trade Propel Growth. Third quarter GDP posted. percent annualized growth, with a generous lift from inventory rebuilding, but also boosted by consumer spending and double-digit gains by the residential sector for the fifth consecutive quarter. Forward looking manufacturing surveys suggest the trade sector will be more prominent this year, aided by easing global austerity and stronger demand. GDP growth is forecast for the.0 percent range and the U.S. should add an estimated.7 million jobs in. Rising Immigration, Employment and Income Growth Drive Household Formations and Apartment Demand. Household growth accelerated sharply to over million in, still below long-run trends, but higher than the average created between and. The releasing of pent-up demand and renewed upswing in immigration trends underlie estimates averaging between. and. million annually for the next several years, as U.S. prospects for employment and wage growth brighten. Tapering the Fed s Quantitative Easing Policy Marks a Return to Normal Credit Environment. Treasury rates remain very close to their 0-year low, and stand at less than half of the long-term average. Without Fed intervention, interest rates will fluctuate naturally in response to economic and capital market drivers and, though it will raise some headwinds for investors in the near term, the positive economic trends will boost commercial real estate performance.
Year End JBM GROUP RECENT TRANSACTION ACTIVITY Aventine UDR Aventine Tampa at Naples at & Naples Orlando Portfolio»,86» 0 Units» Tampa» Naples, & Orlando, FL FL» Completed» in 987 in» Price:» Price: TBD TBD by by Market PREPARING AVAILABLE MATERIALS Marbrisa Place Marbrisa on Millenia Boulevard» 7» Units Units» Orlando,» Tampa, FL FL» Completed» in in 98» Price:» Sold TBD September, by Market PREPARING MATERIALS SOLD Aventine Arbors Aventine at Naples Lee at Vista Naples» 8» 0 Units Units» Orlando,» Naples, FL FL» Completed» in 99 in» Price:» Price: TBD TBD by by Market PREPARING AVAILABLE MATERIALS Marbrisa Island Marbrisa Walk» 00» Units Units» Tampa,» Tampa, FL FL» Completed» in 987 in 98» Price:» Sold TBD September, by Market PREPARING MATERIALS SOLD Watauga Gallery Watauga Woods Bayport Woods II» 77» 6 Units Units» Tampa,» Orlando, FL FL» Completed» in 987 in 99» Price:» Price: TBD TBD by by Market PREPARING AVAILABLE MATERIALS Sienna University Sienna Bay Bay Club Apartments» 6» 76 Units Units» Tampa,» St. Petersburg, FL FL» Completed» in 97 in 986» Price:» Sold TBD June, by Market BEST SOLD & FINAL Summer Waterstone Palms at Carrollwood Monterrey Majestic Monterrey of Baldwin Park» 0» 68 Units Units» Riverview,» Tampa, FL» Completed» in in 98» Price:» Price: TBD TBD by by Market UNDER CONTRACT» 77» Units Units» Orlando,» Venice, FL FL» Completed» in in 988» Price:» Sold TBD June, by Market UNDER SOLD CONTRACT Charleston Orchid Charleston Run Landings Landings Arbor Aaron Lakes» Entitled» 00 Units for 00 MF Units» Naples,» Brandon, FL FL» Proposed» Completed in 987» Price:» Price: TBD TBD by by Market UNDER AVAILABLE CONTRACT» 00» 8 Units Units» Bradenton,» Sanford, FL» Completed» in 986 in» Sold» Sold December, March, SOLD Toledo Reef Toledo Club Club Heritage, Heritage Unit Portfolio - Sold» 60 Units» Kissimmee, FL» Completed in 99» Sold November, AVAILABLE SOLD», Units» Orlando, Naples & Tallahassee, FL» Sold November, SOLD
Year End JBM GROUP JBM JBM RECENT GROUP TRANSACTION ACTIVE LISTINGS ACTIVITY Aventine 90 Aventine Unit at Orlando Naples at Naples Portfolio - Sold Monterrey Mission Monterrey Pointe» 90» 0 Units Units» Orlando,» Naples, FL FL» Completed» in 99-99 in» Sold» Price: November, TBD by Market AVAILABLE SOLD» 8» Units Units» Orlando,» Venice, FL FL» Completed» in 99 in 988» Sold» Sold November, June, SOLD Watauga River Watauga Reach Woods Woods Apartments Arbor Bridgeview Arbor Lakes Lakes» 6» 6 Units Units» Naples,» Orlando, FL FL» Completed» in 989 in 99» Sold» Price: October, TBD by Market AVAILABLE SOLD» 8» 8 Units» Tampa,» Sanford, FL FL» Completed» in 986 in» Sold» Sold September, March, SOLD Bristol Waterstone Place at Carrollwood Heritage Berkshire HeritageReserve» 0» 68 Units Units» Tampa,» FL FL» Completed» in 99 in 98» Sold» Price: September, TBD by Market AVAILABLE SOLD» 6» 0 Units Units» Naples,» FL FL» Completed» in in» Sold» Sold August, February, SOLD Charleston Northgate Charleston Landings Club Landings Wellington Woods» 0» 00 Units Units» Naples,» Brandon, FL FL» Completed» in 988 in 987» Sold» Price: August, TBD by Market AVAILABLE SOLD» 60 Units» Kissimmee, FL» Completed in 99» Sold July, SOLD Toledo Valencia Toledo ClubPark The Abbey at Forest Lakes» 08» 6 Units Units» Orlando,» North Port, FL FL» Completed» in 99 in -» Sold» Price: June, TBD by Market AVAILABLE SOLD» 00 Units» Oldsmar, FL» Completed in 98/» Sold May, SOLD Sienna Ashford Sienna BayClub Misty Springs» 0» 76 Units Units» Tallahassee,» St. Petersburg, FL FL» Completed» in 988 in 986» Sold» Sold May, June, SOLD» 8 Units» Daytona Beach, FL» Completed in 988» Sold May, SOLD
Year End TAMPA MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Currently vacancy within the metro sits at a.7 percent, some 0 basis points lower than when the market reached equilibrium in Q. Over the last year alone vacancy is down 0 basis points. Net absorption has remained strong within the metro since Q, posting year-over-year positive numbers for nearly six years with no end in sight, as demand continues to severely outpace new supply. Over the last four quarters some,77 units have been brought online metro-wide. By year end the metro is projected to see more than,00 units delivered to the marketplace. Despite the over,700 units that have been brought online over the last four quarters, effective rents continue to climb. Since Q rents have increased. percent to average $9 per unit. Tampa s job market has remained strong over the last two years. Since August of, the metro has added an impressive 78,87 new jobs and unemployment has fallen by.7 percent to 6. percent. Economy.com projects the job market to continue growing with minimal fluctuation in the unemployment rate. The metro s population is predicted to continue growing steadily through to,08,000 people. BROOKSVILLE SUBMARKETS BY OCCUPANCY Effective Submarket Occupancy Rents SPRING HILL 8 LACOOCHEE North Pinellas 9. $9 MacDill Air Force Base 9. $9 Largo 9.% $806 North Hillsborough 9. $99 Hillsborough County/Other 9. $96 6 Central Tampa 9.0% $,88 7 Pinellas Park/ Seminole 9.0 $88 8 Pinellas Beaches 9.0 $7 9 University North 9.9 $8 0 Sulphur Springs 9.9 $788 North St. Petersburg 9.% $,00 Brandon/Plant City 9.% $90 Westshore 9.% $9 Clearwater 9.9 $9 Pasco County 9.% $86 6 Central St. Petersburg 9. $99 7 Temple Terrace 9.7 $807 8 Hernando County 87. $87 9 University South 87.% $799 Source: AXIOMetrics Q GULF OF MEXICO DUNEDIN CLEARWATER INDIAN ROCKS REDINGTON SHORES SEMINOLE 8 TREASURE ISLAND ST PETERSBURG/ CLEARWATER INTERNATIONAL CLEARWATER LARGO 7 ST. PETERSBURG PALM HARBOR 6 HUDSON NEW PORT RICHEY TARPON SPRINGS PINELLAS PARK OLDSMAR 7 89 CARROLLWOOD TAMPA INTERNATIONAL TAMPA ST. PETERSBURG TAMPA BAY 0 RUSKIN LUTZ 6 LAND O LAKES 9 9 7 7 TEMPLE TERRACE 7 7 RIVERVIEW APOLLO SUN CITY CENTER BRANDON DADE CITY ZEPHERHILLS THONOTOSASSA PLANT CITY TOP FIVE SUBMARKETS BY OCCUPANCY
Year End TAMPA MARKET HIGHLIGHTS % % % Tampa Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Trends - - - - Y-O-Y Metro Y-O-Y Effective Rent Growth U.S. Y-O-Y Effective Rent Growth % % % Tampa Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Trends $,00 $,00 $,00 $,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 Effective Rent Metro Mo. U.S. Mo. Number of Units,000 0,000 8,000 6,000,000,000 0 -,000 -,000-6,000 Tampa Metro Apartment Market Trends 9. 8. 7. 6...... 0. Metro New Supply Metro Net Absorption Source: AXIOMetrics Q Employment,80,000,60,000,0,000,0,000,00,000,80,000,60,000,0,000 Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity Tampa Monthly Employment 78,97 New Jobs Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- 0. 0.0 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6.0 Unemployment Rate Total Employment FL Unemployment Rate Metro Unemployment Rate Linear (Total Employment)
Year End ORLANDO MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Vacancy has steadily declined since the peak in Q to stand at. percent, 60 basis points lower than reported in Q. The metro s vacancy is forecasted to fluctuate slightly over the next several years between and 6. percent as new product is delivered. Over the last five quarters the metro has seen a steady flow of units being brought online. Since Q,086 units have been added to the Orlando apartment market. Over the next several years apartment deliveries within the metro are expected ramp up significantly. By year end, it is projected that there will be nearly,000 new units. Year to date, effective rents are up an impressive. percent. The metro has now recorded year-over-year effective rent growth for the past four years. Since the Q effective rents have risen an impressive.8 percent. Additionally, rents DAYTONA BE SOUTH DA are expected to continue rising through year end despite the large number of unit deliveries expected. PORT O The metro has posted 7notable positive net absorption over the last seven quarters. Additionally, even with the mass amount of new supply expected to hit the market over the next four years net absorption is expected to remain overwhelmingly positive; a testament to the markets strength. Since November, the metro DE LAND has created 6,079 new jobs, which has driven the unemployment rate down.6 percent to.9 percent, 0 basis points lower than the state average. Employment is projected by Economy.com to continue growing while unemployment steadily declines. Population is expected to show steady growth registering at over. million residents by year end. SUBMARKETS BY OCCUPANCY Effective Submarket Occupancy Rents Osceola County/ Other 97. LEESBURG $,09 Orange County/ Other 96. $,0 East Altamonte/ Casselberry 96.0 $99 Lake County 9.8 $90 6 7 West Altamonte Springs Southeast/ Airport/6/ Kissimmee/ Osceola 9. $860 9.% $960 9. $86 8 Northeast/6/ 9.0 $9 7 EUSTIS OCOEE APOPKA LOCKHART 0 WINTER PARK 9 LONGWOOD CASSELBERRY SANFORD ORLANDO SANFORD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 8 7 9 9 Far North 9.8% $96 0 Far South/ Lake Buena Vista South Central/7/ 9.7 $, 9. $9 Southwest/ 9. $97 Maitland/ Winter Park 9.0% $,078 Northwest/ 9. $68 Source: AXIOMetrics Q 9 9 ORLANDO 0 KISSIMMEE 7 CONWAY ORLANDO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BUENA VENTURA LAKES ST CLOUD 6 8 7 7 9 HAINES CITY TOP FIVE SUBMARKETS BY OCCUPANCY 9
Year End ORLANDO MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Orlando Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Trends - - - - Y-O-Y Metro Y-O-Y U.S. Y-O-Y Orlando Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Trends $,00 $,00 $,00 $,000 $900 $800 $700 Effective Rent Metro Mo. U.S. Mo.,000 Orlando Metro Apartment Market Trends Number of Units 0,000 8,000 6,000,000,000 0 Metro New Supply Metro Net Absorption Source: AXIOMetrics Q Employment,00,000,090,000,080,000,070,000,060,000,00,000,00,000,00,000,00,000,00,000,000,000 Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity Orlando Monthly Employment 6,079 New Jobs Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- 0. 9.% 9. 8.% 8. 7.% 7. 6.% 6..% Unemployment Rate Total Employment FL Unemployment Rate Metro Unemployment Rate Linear (Total Employment)
Year End MIAMI MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Miami has seen a flow of new deliveries hitting the market since. Over the last three years there have been over,00 units brought online metro wide. Deliveries are expected to increase substantially over the next several years. AX- IOMetrics predicts that there will be 0, units delivered to the market by year end. Though demand slowed in compared to previous years, it still continues to outpace supply as the metro continues to show significant positive net absorption. This trend is showing no signs of coming to an end any time soon. The metro has seen astronomical increases in effective rents since. During this period effective rents increased by a staggering 9 percent. Despite the consistent heavy apartment delivery schedule predicted to take place through year end, the metro is expected to continue substantial year-over-year increases in rents. Miami s unemployment rate has remained rocky over the last two years but is beginning to trend toward pre-recessionary numbers. Despite the fact that Miami has added,69 jobs over the last two years, the metro s unemployment rate is still 0 basis points higher than the state average. Economy.com predicts that employment will continue to rise through, while unemployment rates fall dipping near percent by year end. Strong net in-migration over the next four and a half years will contribute to Miami s strong population growth. By year end Miami s population is predicted to be at well over.7 million residents. SUBMARKETS BY OCCUPANCY Effective Submarket Occupancy Rents Hialeah 98.7 $,7 7 Kendall West 98. $,99 South Beach/ Miami Bayshore 97.8 $,0 Miami Lakes 97.8% $, North Dade 96.7% $,06 6 Miami 96.% $,6 7 N Miami Beach/ Bal Harbour/ 96.% $,88 Golden Beach 8 Kendall East/ Coral Gables 9.7% $,66 9 Kendall Lakes/ Hammond 9.8 $, 0 Airport West 9.8 $,0 North Miami/ Bayshore 9.7% $,0 South Dade/ Homestead 86. $80 Source: AXIOMetrics Q EVERGLADES WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA TAMIAMI TRAIL 997 9 9 0 HIALEAH CORAL GABLES KENDALL FORT LAUDERDALE 8 HOLLYWOOD 6 MIAMI 7 HALLANDALE NORTH MIAMI MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ATLANTIC OCEAN HOMESTEAD 8 BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK TOP FIVE SUBMARKETS BY OCCUPANCY
Year End MIAMI MARKET HIGHLIGHTS % % % Miami Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Trends - - - - Y-O-Y Metro Y-O-Y U.S. Y-O-Y % % % Miami Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Trends $,700 $,600 $,00 $,00 $,00 $,00 $,00 $,000 $900 $800 $700 Effective Rent Metro Mo. U.S. Mo. Number of Units 0,000,000 0,000,000 0,000,000 0 -,000-0,000 Miami Metro Apartment Market Trends % % % Metro New Supply Metro Net Absorption Source: AXIOMetrics Q Employment,9,000,90,000,8,000,80,000,7,000,70,000,6,000,60,000,,000,0,000 Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity Miami Monthly Employment Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb-,69 New Jobs Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- 0.% 0. 9.% 9. 8.% 8. 7.% 7. 6.% 6. Unemployment Rate Total Employment FL Unemployment Rate Metro Unemployment Rate Linear (Total Employment)
Year End FORT LAUDERDALE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS New supply deliveries picked up in and year to date after a slow. Supply deliveries are forecasted to remain strong and steady through year end with an estimated 9,06 units expected to be brought online. Though the Fort Lauderdale metro remained relatively unscathed by the housing market crash the metro is finally starting to see pre-recessionary vacancy rates. Vacancy currently stands at a mere.9 percent, down 60 basis points over the last year. Even with the envisioned surplus of new deliveries, the market metrics are forecasted to remain tight with vacancy fluctuating minimally. The metro has seen positive year-over-year net absorption over the last two years and is expected to continue this trend through year end, a testament to the markets overall strength. Effective rents have seen an impressive increase of.9 percent since early. By year end effective rents are expected to increase by another. percent to hit historic highs. The metro s unemployment rate remained lower than the states average over the last two years and is currently at. percent. Since November of, the metro has added over 0,000 new jobs. Economy.com believes that employment numbers will continue rising driving unemployment numbers down to below percent by year end. Net migration is expected to increase steadily over the next four and a half years sending the metro s population just shy of million residents. SUBMARKETS BY OCCUPANCY Effective Submarket Occupancy Rents East Hollywood/ Hallandale 96.% $,8 Sunrise/Tamarac/ North Lauderdale 9.7 $,09 Deerfield Beach 9.% $, Coral Springs/ Margate/ 9.% $, Coconut Creek Miramar/ Pembroke Pines 9. $,6 6 West Hollywood 9. $,88 7 Lauderhill/ Lauderdale 9.6 $908 8 Plantation 9.% $,96 9 Davie 9. $,7 0 Fort Lauderdale 9. $,06 Pompano Beach 9.0% $,7 Oakland Park 9. $,8 Source: AXIOMetrics Q TOP FIVE SUBMARKETS BY OCCUPANCY 7 9 TAMARAC SUNRISE 8 LAUDERHILL PLANTATION 7 DAVIE PEMBROKE PINES HOLLYWOOD 6 MIRAMAR 9 BOCA RATON OAKLAND PARK DEERFIELD POMPANO HIGHLANDS POMPANO FORT LAUDERDALE 0 9 FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HALLANDALE PALM SPRINGS NORTH CAROL CITY NORTH MIAMI ATLANTIC OCEAN HOMESTEAD
Year End FORT LAUDERDALE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS % % % Fort Lauderdale Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Trends -% - Y-O-Y Metro Y-O-Y U.S. Y-O-Y % % % Fort Lauderdale Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Trends $,600 $,00 $,00 $,00 $,00 $,00 $,000 $900 $800 Effective Rent Metro Mo. U.S. Mo. Number of Units,000 0,000 8,000 6,000,000,000 0 -,000 -,000-6,000-8,000 Fort Lauderdale Metro Apartment Market Trends % % % Metro New Supply Metro Net Absorption Source: AXIOMetrics Q Employment 990,000 980,000 970,000 960,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 900,000 Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity Fort Lauderdale Monthly Employment 0,60 New Jobs Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- 0.0 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6.0..0 Unemployment Rate Total Employment FL Unemployment Rate Metro Unemployment Rate Linear (Total Employment)
Year End WEST PALM MARKET HIGHLIGHTS So far this year vacancy is up a mere 0 basis points to stand at. percent. Vacancy is expected to fluctuate minimally between. and.8 percent through year end despite the abundance of forecasted deliveries. Deliveries within the metro over slowed during, and the first half of, but since then deliveries have picked up significantly. This short break allowed the market metrics to tighten. Deliveries are expected to increase astronomically over the four years with over 9,0 units being projected to be added to the West Palm Beach metro s apartment stock. After seeing large negative net absorption numbers in, the metro rebounded to have two straight positive years of net absorption in and year to date. AXIOMetrics anticipates that this trend will remain strong through the end of. Over the last two years unemployment has mirrored that of the state, showing a steady decline. During this period over 7,000 jobs have been added within the metro and the unemployment rate has dropped. percent. Economy.com believes that the metro will see continued employment growth accompanied by declining unemployment rates through year end. Additionally, over the next three and a half years forecasts show the metro adding nearly 7,000 new residents to the metro to put the total population at just over. million residents. SUBMARKETS BY OCCUPANCY Asking Submarket Occupancy Rents Palm Beach County/Other 9.8% $, West Palm Beach/ Palm Beach 9. $,098 Boynton Beach/ Delray Beach 9.9 $, Boca Raton East 9.9 $,88 Boca Raton West 9.6% $, 6 Green Acres City/ Palm Spgs/ 9.% $,0 Lake Worth 7 North Palm Beach 9.8% $, 8 Century Village 9.% $97 Source: AXIOMetrics Q 700 76 70 9 8 PALM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HOBE SOUND 7 6 JUPITER RIVIERA WEST PALM LAKE WORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN BOYNTON DELRAY BOCA RATON DEERFIELD SUNRISE POMPANO TOP FIVE SUBMARKETS BY OCCUPANCY
Year End WEST PALM MARKET HIGHLIGHTS % % % West Palm Beach Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Trends - - - - Y-O-Y Metro Y-O-Y U.S. Y-O-Y % % % West Palm Beach Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Trends $,00 $,00 $,00 $,00 $,00 $,000 $900 $800 Effective Rent Metro Mo. U.S. Mo. Number of Units 0,000 8,000 6,000,000,000 0 -,000 -,000-6,000-8,000 West Palm Beach Metro Apartment Market Trends % % % Metro New Supply Metro Net Absorption Source: AXIOMetrics Q Employment 600,000 9,000 90,000 8,000 80,000 7,000 70,000 6,000 60,000 Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity West Palm Beach Employment 7,09 New Jobs Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- 0.0 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6.0 Unemployment Rate Total Employment FL Unemployment Rate Metro Unemployment Rate Linear (Total Employment)
Year End JACKSONVILLE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS The metro is starting to see vacancy numbers return to normal after the market reached equilibrium in Q. Over the last year alone vacancy has fallen an impressive 0 basis points to stand at 6.6 percent. New supply entering the metro was limited from Q to Q, with only 7 units being brought online during that time. However, deliveries have picked up substantially since Q and are predicted to reach new heights on the way to year end. Net absorption has been positive for five out of the last six years and is expected to continue to post positive numbers through year end. Effective rents have grown three out of the last four years and are up. percent year to date and an impressive.8 percent since. Further, effective rents are anticipated to grow by approximately percent per annum on through. Jacksonville s unemployment rate neared 9. percent just two years ago and is now down. percent to 6.0 percent. The metro s unemployment rate has consistently been lower than that of the state and is currently 60 basis points lower than the states average. Since November of, the metro has added 7,9 new jobs. Economy.com envisions that employment will continue to rise steadily while the unemployment rate falls. Population growth is anticipated to remain strong through with the help of steady in net-migration. By year end the metro s population is forecast to be just below. million residents. SUBMARKETS BY OCCUPANCY Effective Submarket Occupancy Rents Clay County 96. $99 Ocean Beaches 96. $,06 Southside/ Bay Meadows 9. $86 Atlantic Beach 9.% $777 Southeast Jacksonville 9.% $909 6 Northwest Jacksonville 9. $,07 7 Orange Park/ Clay County 9.6 $79 8 East Jacksonville 9. $9 9 Southside/ University Blvd 9. $99 0 Jacksonville Heights 9.9 $7 Lake Shore 9.% $66 Jacksonville North 9. $766 San Jose 90.8 $68 Greater Arlington 90.0% $680 Source: AXIOMetrics Q N 0 0 6 9 JACKSONVILLE ORANGE PARK LAKESIDE 7 JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT OCEANWAY JACKSONVILLE NAS 9 JACKSONVILLE EXECUTIVE AT CRAIG AIRPORT 8 TOP FIVE SUBMARKETS BY OCCUPANCY AMELIA CITY NAVAL STATION MAYPORT ATLANTIC NEPTUNE JACKSONVILLE PONTE VEDRA ATLANTIC OCEAN FRUIT COVE HIBERNIA GREEN COVE SPRINGS 9
Year End JACKSONVILLE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Jacksonville Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Trends - - - - Y-O-Y Metro Y-O-Y U.S. Y-O-Y Jacksonville Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Trends $,00 $,00 $,00 $,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 Effective Rent Metro Mo. U.S. Mo. Number of Units 7,000 6,000,000,000,000,000,000 0 -,000 -,000 Jacksonville Metro Apartment Market Trends Metro New Supply Metro Net Absorption Source: AXIOMetrics Q Employment 67,000 66,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity Jacksonville Monthly Employment 7,9 New Jobs Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- 0.0 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6.0 Unemployment Rate Total Employment FL Unemployment Rate Metro Unemployment Rate Linear (Total Employment)
Year End SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Year to date vacancy metro wide is up 0 basis points to stand at.0 percent. However, vacancy is still down an astounding,0 basis points from when the market reached equilibrium. New supply in Southwest Florida has slowed substantially since the beginning of, but picked up during the second half of. Deliveries are expected to pick up in early and remain strong through the end of. Over time southwest Florida has seen strong, steady increases in its effective rent. This year alone effective rents are up an impressive 7.8 percent to average $898 per unit. The unemployment rate in Southwest Florida was over 9.9 percent just two years ago. Since then it has fallen.7 percent to 6. percent, 0 basis points lower than the states average unemployment rate. Over the last two years 9,60 new jobs have been added to the metro. Economy.com believes that Southwest Florida will continue to add jobs at a slow, yet steady rate, while unemployment slowly falls. Population growth is anticipated to remain slow and steady through with the help of steady net in-migration. SUBMARKETS BY OCCUPANCY Effective Submarket Occupancy Rents Sarasota 97. $,09 Collier County 96.6% $960 Manatee 96.0 $9 Southern Lee County 9.8 $90 Fort Myers 9.6 $76 Source: AXIOMetrics Q HOLMES 7 LONGBOAT KEY GULF OF MEXICO SIESTA KEY 7 BRADENTON SARASOTA- BRADENTON INT L AIRPORT 7 VENICE VENICE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT SARASOTA PORT CHARLOTTE CAPTIVA CHARLOTTE HARBOR PINE ISLAND PUNTA GORDA 7 CAPE CORAL SANIBEL FORT MYERS 7 OKEECHOBEE FORT MYERS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA INT L AIRPORT BONITA SPRINGS 7 IMMOKALEE NORTH NAPLES EAST NAPLES 7 NAPLES TOP FIVE SUBMARKETS BY OCCUPANCY
Year End SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MARKET HIGHLIGHTS Southwest Florida Apartment Vacancy & Rent Trends % % % % -% - Y-O-Y Metro Y-O-Y U.S. Y-O-Y Southwest Florida Apartment Vacancy & Rent Trends $,00 $,00 $,00 $,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 Effective Rent Metro Mo. U.S. Mo. Number of Units,000 0,000,000 0 -,000-0,000 -,000 Southwest Florida Apartment Market Trends Metro New Supply Metro Net Absorption Source: AXIOMetrics Q Employment 7,000 70,000 69,000 68,000 67,000 66,000 6,000 Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity Southwest Florida Monthly Employment 9,60 New Jobs Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- 0. 9.% 9. 8.% 8. 7.% 7. 6.% 6. Unemployment Rate Southwest Florida Employment FL Unemployment Rate Southwest Florida Unemployment Rate Linear (Southwest Florida Employment)
Year End Closing date Property Name City Year Built Units Rentable SF YEAR CONSTRUCTiON ANd NEwER Avg SF Sale Price Sale $ / Unit Sale $ / SF Eff Rent Seller Transaction Type Seller Type Dec- ARIUM Bartram Park Jacksonville 6,9, $8,000,000 $7,67 $0 $,006 Daniel Corporation Market Private Dec- Courtney Chase Orlando 88 8,86 98 $8,000,000 $,9 $ $,08 Associated Estates Realty Market Institutional Dec- Pavilion at Lake Eve Orlando 6 6, 997 $,00,000 $6,8 $6 $, Wood Partners Market Private Nov- ARIUM Bala Sands Orlando 98 6,98,097 $6,00,000 $,8 $ $,7 Archon Group Market Institutional Nov- ARIUm Falcon Pines Orlando 00 07,69,06 $,00,000 $0,000 $0 $986 Clarion Partners Market Private Nov- Courtney Trace Brandon 88 8,00 979 $,,000 $09,6 $ $,8 ContraVest Market Private Nov- Forum Isles Fort Myers 00 87,70 99 $8,70,000 $6,00 $6 $7 Related Companies Market Private Nov- Seagrass Apartments Jacksonville 96 08,0,0 $6,68,000 $9,7 $90 $,068 Greenfield Partners Market Private Oct- Element Tampa 9 66,67 98 $98,000,000 $8,0 $67 $,899 ST Residential Market Institutional Sep- The Strand Jacksonville 9,,9 $,00,000 $80,678 $ $,67 Real Estate Capital Partners Market Private Aug- Coves at Brighton Bay St. Petersburg 8,89 898 $6,96,000 $9,77 $06 $,0 Invesco Realty Advisors Market Institutional Aug- Aventine at Naples Naples 0 90,6, $,0,000 $6,9 $ $987 Greystar/Praedium Market Private Jul- Village Walk Jacksonville 0 6,0,0 $0,00,000 $,7 $89 $,7 The Development Group Inc Market Private Jul- SteelHouse Orlando 6,0 777 $9,000,000 $80,98 $ $,6 Pollack Shores Market Institutional Jul- Addison Landing Jacksonville 88,076, $9,8,000 $66,6 $9 $8 Aspen Square Mgmt Market Private Jun- Westbury at Lake Brandon Brandon 66 6,660 988 $8,800,000 $06,0 $07 $96 Alliance Residential Market Private May- Courtney Villages Lady Lake 6 8,08,07 $0,0,000 $8,97 $79 $8 ContraVest Market Private May- Post Lakeside Windermere 00,08,070 $9,0,000 $6,67 $ $, RAM Realty / Greenfield Partners Market Private May- Mosaic Westshore Tampa 0 0,66 970 $,000,000 $0,76 $ $, UBS Realty Investors Market Institutional May- Bell at Universal Orlando 0,,007 $8,60,000 $,677 $ $,07 Epoch Properties Market Private May- Bonita Fountains Orlando 60 8,99 96 $,79,96 $,96 $9 $9 Banc of America Community Development Corp Distressed Private May- Broadstone Citrus Village Tampa 96 90,0 980 $,000,000 $,89 $ $,6 Alliance Residential Company Market Private Apr- Calais Park St. Petersburg 60 6,7,6 $0,0,000 $6,69 $96 $,088 Boulder Ventures Market Private Apr- Mallory Square Tampa 8,66,07 $,789, $, $06 $,0 Pearlmark Real Estate Partners Market Private Mar- Grandeville at River Place Oviedo 80 0,8,087 $6,6,00 $0,80 $0 $,0 Equity Residential Market Institutional Mar- Fountains at North Port North Port 87,98 9 $9,70,000 $6,7 $69 $76 Bank of America Community Development Market Private Mar- Colonial Grand at Windermere Windermere 80 8,9,0 $,000,000 $,7 $ $, Altman Companies Market Private Feb- Wimberly at Deerwood Jacksonville 96, 9 $6,000,000 $,80 $ $9 Equity Residential Market Institutional Jan- Avenue Royale Jacksonville 00 8,08,09 $,90,000 $,70 $0 $98 Equity Residential Market Institutional Total/Average 9,68 9,9,8,0,,7,80 $, $ Closing date Property Name City Year Built Units YEAR 990 TO 999 CONSTRUCTiON Rentable SF Avg SF Sale Price Sale $ / Unit Sale $ / SF Eff Rent Seller Transaction Type Seller Type Dec- Promenade at Carillon St. Petersburg 99,688 969 $,800,000 $7,6 $ $,90 Ares Management (Area Property Partners) Market Institutional Nov- Bella Vita Orlando 997 6,600,07 $8,00,000 $80,966 $79 $9 SunAmerica/CED Market Private Nov- Montevista Orlando 990 60 77, 77 $0,600,000 $8,000 $0 $88 Invesco Realty Advisors Market Institutional Sep- Audubon Village Tampa 990 7 79,9 89 $,96,7 $9,86 $ $9 Pollack Shores Market Private Sep- Preserve at Deer Park Lutz 990 8 6,600 796 $6,800,000 $9,8 $7 $86 New Boston Fund Market Private Sep- Bristol Place Tampa 99 0,9,00 $,000,000 $9,8 $90 $99 AVR Realty Market Private Aug- Elements of Belle Rive Jacksonville 990 00 0,800,0 $7,67,000 $88,7 $80 $,8 Covenant Capital Market Private Jul- Landmark at Stafford Landing Orlando 998 89,6 7 $,800,000 $66,667 $89 $7 Cagan Management Market Private Jul- Caribbean Isle Melbourne 990 76,660 89 $,600,000 $60,06 $7 $77 Wells Fargo Distressed/REO Lender Jul- The Registry at Windsor Park Jacksonville 999 60 8,6,6 $,80,000 $8,000 $0 $, Fort Family Investments Market Private May- ARIUM Danforth Jacksonville 998 88 06,6,06 $0,0,000 $0,8 $99 $98 Beachwold Residential Distressed Private Apr- Marina Landing Orlando 99 60,90 90 $,90,000 $8,69 $9 $89 Archon Group Market Institutional Apr- Vista at Palma Sola Bradenton 99 0 8,600 996 $7,000,000 $79, $80 $79 CMS/Merion Realty Market Private Apr- Summer Cove Sarasota 996,9,0 $7,9,706 $80, $76 $, Archon Group Market Institutional Apr- Sabal Palm at Metrowest II Orlando 997 6 60,86,0 $7,0,000 $8,908 $8 $87 Equity Residential Market Institutional Apr- Arium Barber Park Orlando 990 6,6 8 $0,00,000 $76,996 $9 $79 Camden Property Trust Market Institutional Apr- Cape House Jacksonville 998 80 7,0,0 $,07,000 $,70 $0 $,06 Equity Residential Market Institutional Feb- Champions Walk Bradenton 997 76 7,6 99 $0,00,000 $80,0 $80 $9 LCOR Market Private Feb- Country Club Lakes Jacksonville 997 600,8,08 $6,000,000 $00,90 $9 $876 Equity Residential Market Institutional Total/Average 7, 6,8,80 97 69,7,98 $89, $9
Year End Closing date Property Name City Year Built Units Rentable SF YEAR 980 TO 989 CONSTRUCTiON Avg SF Sale Price Sale $ / Unit Sale $ / SF Eff Rent Seller Transaction Type Seller Type Dec- Windrift Orlando 986 88 9,68 90 $0,7,000 $7,09 $79 $78 AIMCO Market Institutional Dec- Landmark at Alexander Pointe Orange Park 986,76,0 $,800,000 $68,0 $6 $80 Venterra Realty Market Private Dec- Twin Lakes Palm Harbor 986 6,66 8 $9,60,000 $7,000 $9 $77 AIMCO Market Institutional Dec- Grove at Deerwood Jacksonville 98 88 0,800 79 $,7,000 $9,9 $6 $9 LNR Partners - REO Distressed/REO Lender Nov- Boca Vista Altamonte Springs 98 6,,099 $,7,000 $68,70 $6 $90 Stoneleigh Companies Market Private Nov- ARIUM Bay Pointe Tampa 98 68 8,99 769 $9,,000 $79,89 $0 $76 Camden Property Trust Market Institutional Nov- ARIUM Citrus Park Tampa 98 7 66,7 67 $9,0,000 $77,9 $ $7 Camden Property Trust Market Institutional Nov- Park at Polos Place, The Riverview 988 0 6,896,00 $,700,000 $77,88 $9 $8 Blue Rock Partners Market Private Nov- Park Place Luxury Port Richey 98 0,0 7 $,00,000 $0,76 $68 $67 CFH Group Market Private Oct- River Reach Naples 989 6 0, 909 $,000,000 $80,9 $89 $8 AIMCO Market Institutional Oct- Millenia West Orlando 987 00,70 79 $0,00,000 $0,00 $67 $7 Berkshire Property Advisors Market Private Oct- Reserves of Melbourne Melbourne 98 0 66,98 8 $,0,8 $6,89 $8 $68 Berkshire Property Advisors Market Private Oct- Country Place Palm Harbor 98 9 67,6 9 $,00,000 $80,79 $88 $899 IMT Market Private Oct- Douglaston Villas and TH s Altamonte Springs 980 6,9 696 $6,70,000 $7,8 $0 $878 AIMCO Market Institutional Sep- Park at Rialto Tampa 98 0,00 9 $,,000 $,688 $9 $68 Everett Realty & Investments Market Private Sep- Bridgeview Tampa 986 8 97,98 86 $,000,000 $89,080 $0 $78 JB Howell Market Private Sep- Madison at Lake Gibson Lakeland 989 0 7,78 79 $,960,000 $,6 $68 $797 Equus Capital Partners (BPG / Madison Apt Group) Market Private Aug- Deerfield Jacksonville 989 6 9, 7 $0,700,000 $,797 $6 $69 Castle Hill Partners Market Private Aug- Tivoli Jacksonville 987 6,00 00 $6,700,000 $,7 $ $97 Mandarine Pines LLC Market Private Aug- Village Lakes Orlando 98 6 7,8 860 $0,8,00 $0,00 $8 $70 IMT Capital Market Private Aug- Village Park at Lake Orlando Orlando 986 9,00 77 $6,87,00 $8,6 $0 $668 IMT Capital Market Private Aug- Huntington at Hidden Hills Jacksonville 987 8,00 88 $,00,000 $,80 $68 $7 McDowell Properties Market Private Jul- The Park at Ravello Sanford 98 6,79 909 $8,00,000 $7,66 $79 $8 Robbins Property Associates Market Private Jul- The Vinings at Westwood Orlando 988 00 9, 87 $,0,000 $0, $8 $,0 Olympic/Pinnacle Market Private Jul- Iona Lakes Fort Myers 986 0 0,7 9 $,00,000 $6,9 $69 $806 America First Real Estate Group Market Private Jun- Savannahs At James Landing Melbourne 989 6,98 97 $7,000,000 $66,06 $70 $8 Mid-America Apartments Inc. Market Private May- Abbey at Forest Lakes Oldsmar 98 00 70,080,7 $,000,000 $8,00 $70 $8 Abbey Residential Market Private Apr- Huntington Place Sarasota 986,960 8 $,70,000 $86,0 $0 $88 Jackson Square Market Private Apr- Lofton Place Tampa 988 80 6,9 9 $6,000,000 $9,87 $98 $6 Northview Realty Group & Evergreen Residential Market Private Apr- Town Place Clearwater 98 0 00,68 8 $,80,000 $66,0 $79 $90 ING Clarion Market Private Apr- Timberwalk Jacksonville 987 8 7,76 97 $0,00,000 $7,79 $7 $808 LaSalle Investment Management Market Institutional Mar- Braden Lakes Bradenton 987 6 9,600 908 $,80,000 $,09 $60 $70 Situs/ Wells Fargo Distressed/REO Lender Mar- Oakhurst Ocala 987 69, 790 $8,00,000 $7,80 $8 $69 Sentinel Market Institutional Mar- Inwood Park Tampa 98 0,000,099 $,00,000 $79,70 $7 $89 Waterton Associates Market Private Mar- Broadwater Orlando 987 08,6 87 $7,000,000 $90,686 $ $8 Sentinel Market Institutional Mar- Cornerstone Orlando 986 0 7,0 78 $,00,000 $,6 $7 $68 Situs Distressed/REO Lender Feb- Landmark at Autumn Cove Orange Park 986 88 0,7,08 $,00,000 $80,90 $76 $809 Equity Residential Market Institutional Feb- Landmark at Vista Grande Orange Park 989 7 0,9, $,900,000 $87,868 $78 $89 Equity Residential Market Institutional Feb- Promenade at Mayport Jacksonville 986 6 86,688 86 $,66,667 $,698 $60 $77 CAPREIT Market Private Feb- Summer Trace New Port Richey 986 00 6,008 780 $0,6,667 $,8 $66 $7 CAPREIT Market Private Jan- Amberly Place Tampa 988 770 8,7,09 $6,00,000 $8,8 $7 $79 Camden Property Trust Market Institutional Total/Average,0,,08 87 888,00,6 $66,9 $77 Summer Palms - Riverview, FL Majestic of Baldwin Park - Orlando, FL
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