Remodeling Trends and Outlook

Remodeling Trends and Outlook Kermit Baker Remodeling Futures Conference October 16, 2007 www.jchs.harvard.edu

Recent Remodeling Trends Growth in remodeling spending began to ease in Q3-2006.

After Strong Acceleration in 2004 and 2005, Owner Remodeling Spending Began to Ease in Mid-2006 Homeowner Remodeling Activity Four-quarter moving totals ($ billions) $190 Annual Moving Rate of Change 25% $180 $170 19.6% 20.4% 18.5% 166.3 170.1 178.2 181.0 177.7 175.4 18.2% 20% $160 $150 143.4 18.6% 148.7 150.8 158.0 15.9% 14.4% 14.6% 15% $140 133.3 10% $130 $120 123.5 127.2 5.1% 8.3% 6.8% 5% $110 1.5% 3.1% $100 2004 - Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 - Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 - Q2 Q3 Q4 2007-0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Residential Improvements and Repairs Statistics (C50).

Recent Remodeling Trends Growth in remodeling spending began to ease in Q3-2006. Remodeling contractors seeing weaker market conditions.

Recently, Remodeling Contractor Payrolls Have Seen Slower Growth Residential Remodelers, All Employees, NSA (Thousands) 350 340 330 320 310 300 290 286.2 284.1 288.5 297.7 297.5 291.2 306.4 327.4 325.2 301.1 318.6 326.8 280 270 267.9 271.1 260 250 252.5 240 230 220 210 200 2004 - Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 - Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 - Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 - Q2 Q3(e) Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Remodelers Future Expectations Have Been Negative Since Late 2005 Remodeling Market Index: Future Expectations, SA 60 57.8 55 52.4 52.4 54.0 53.6 52.8 51.8 50 45 47.5 48.9 43.5 45.4 46.0 46.5 44.1 40 35 30 2004 - Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 - Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 - Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 - Q2 Source: NAHB Economics Group- Remodeling Market Index, Qrtly. Survey of Remodelers.

Recent Remodeling Trends Growth in remodeling spending began to ease in Q3-2006. Remodeling contractors seeing weaker market conditions. With residential slowdown, households seeing better value in more moderately priced remodeling projects.

Mid-Range Improvements and Replacements Generally Have Better Payback Today Than Upscale Projects Share of cost recovered in 2007 (Percent) 100 90 85 80 74 78 78 79 81 78 70 68 66 67 60 50 Major Kitchen Remodel Bath Remodel Roof Replacement Window Replace. (wood) Deck Add. Upscale Mid-Range Notes: Upscale and mid-range projects are defined in terms of quality of products used. For more information, see www.remodelingmagazine.com. Source: Remodeling magazine and National Association of Realtors, 2007 Cost vs. Value Study.

Positives for Remodeling Outlook Even with some recent hits, national economic expansion continues. While linked to homebuilding, industry differences for remodeling point to different path.

Recent Levels of Home Completions Have Overshot Market Demand Total housing completions plus manufactured housing placements, in millions 2.2 2 1.8 1.751.74 1.85 1.94 1.86 1.82 1.82 1.77 1.97 2.09 2.05 1.6 1.4 1.63 1.47 Total Residential Construction (completions + manufactured housing) Effective Demand over Past Decade (1.8M/yr.) 1.2 JCHS Housing Completion Projections (1.95M/yr.) 1 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 (e) 2009 2011 2013 Source: U.S. Commerce Department; Joint Center projections.

Even With Strong Growth in Remodeling Spending in Recent Years Spending on home improvement projects, billions of $ $500 $400 $300 229 257 280 297 291 $200 $100 $- 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007(e) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies; actual figures based on U.S. Census Bureau figures and JCHS tabulations of American Housing Survey data.

Spending Levels Have Not Overshot Long-term Spending Projections Spending on home improvement projects, billions of $ $500 $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 229 229 257 243 280 258 297 274 291 (e) 291 309 328 348 369 392 416 442 469 $150 $100 $50 $0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Actual Projection Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies; actual figures based on U.S. Census Bureau figures and JCHS tabulations of American Housing Survey data.

Positives for Remodeling Outlook Even with some recent hits, national economic expansion continues. While linked to homebuilding, industry differences for remodeling point to different path. Industry likely to return to more broad-based participation.

The Percent of Owners Making Improvements Has Declined Share of owners reporting expenditures (Percent) 30 29.7 29 28 28.2 27.6 27.8 27.2 27 26.2 26 25 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Source: JCHS tabulations of 1995-2005 AHS.

So, Top Spenders Have Accounted for an Increasingly Large Share of the Market Share of homeowner expenditures by top 5% (percent) 65 60 55 50 52.8 50.4 54.7 56.8 60.7 45 45.2 40 35 30 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Source: JCHS tabulations of 1995-2005 AHS.

Negatives for Remodeling Outlook Broader residential downturn shows no signs of reversing: home sales declining; home prices falling in many markets.

Pending Home Sales Have Been Declining for Two Years Pending Home Sales Index, NSA, four-quarter moving average Annual Rate Of Change 130 120 110 8.8% 110.8 12.6% 11.4% 10.6% 125.4 124.5 124.4 10.2% 120.9 122.5 123.0 8.8% 114.4 117.9 6.3% 2.9% 0.4% 119.2 114.2 111.9 109.2 105.6 15% 10% 5% 0% 100-4.3% -5% 90-8.9% -10.1% -11.3%-11.4% -10% 80 2004 - Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 - Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 - Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 - Q2-15% Source: National Association of Realtors.

House Prices Have Been Slowing; By How Much Depends on the Measure Percent change from same quarter year-ago 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 2004 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q2 Q3(e) Existing 1-Family Homes: Median Sales Price (NAR) New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Census) OFHEO Purchase-Only Home Price Index Case-Schiller Repeat Sales Index Constant Quality New 1-Family Home Price Index (Census)

Negatives for Remodeling Outlook Broader residential downturn shows no signs of reversing: home sales declining; home prices falling in many markets. After very strong growth, homeowners are taking less equity out of their homes.

Cashed-Out Home Equity Sustained Remodeling Surge; Recent Restrictions Will Dramatically Slow New Lending Total Home Equity Cashed Out ($ billions) Annual Moving Rate of Change $120 Equity cashed out ($) annual % change 100% $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 17% 26 2004 36 2% 38-14% 43-3% 48 19% Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 41% 61 74% 74 83% 79 80% 83 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 (E) 101 77% Q2 (E) 91 57% Q3 (E) 77 34% Q4 (E) 74 15% 2007 (E) 77-5% Q2 (E) 58-20% Q3 (F) 46-28% Q4 (F) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Source: Freddie Mac, Refinance Activities Reports.

Negatives for Remodeling Outlook Broader residential downturn shows no signs of reversing: home sales declining; home prices falling in many markets. After very strong growth, homeowners are taking less equity out of their homes. The financial performance of remodeling contractors has slipped.

Revenue Growth for Larger Remodeling Contractors Has Slowed Recently Median annual rate of growth in revenues 15% 12.5% 10% 7.4% 8.1% 7.5% 5% 4.4% 4.7% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Note: Analysis used top 400 firms each year that reported revenue for that year and the previous year. Source: Qualified Remodeler magazine Top 500 contractors; 2000-2006.

Negatives for Remodeling Outlook Broader residential downturn shows no signs of reversing: home sales declining; home prices falling in many markets. After very strong growth, homeowners are taking less equity out of their homes. The financial performance of remodeling contractors has slipped. The share of cost recouped on remodeling projects has been declining.

Percentage of Cost Recouped on Remodeling Projects Has Been Declining in Recent Years % of cost recouped; average across projects included each year (national figures) 100% 90% 80% 82.5% 80.7% 80.7% 70% 75.5% 70.0% 60% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Remodeling Magazine and National Association of Realtors Cost vs. Value studies, 2003-2007.

Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity Points to Continued Slowdown in Remodeling Spending Homeowner Remodeling Activity Four-quarter moving totals Billions of $ Four-Quarter Moving Rate of Change $190 35% $180 $170 $160 $150 $140 $130 $120 $110 $178.2 $181.0 $180.6 $177.7 $178.5 $175.4 $173.9 $170.1 $171.3 $173.1 $166.3 20.4% 19.6% $158.0 $150.8 18.2% $148.7 18.6% 14.6% $143.4 18.5% 15.9% 14.4% $133.3 6.8% 8.3% 3.1% 1.0% -1.4% -2.1% -2.4% -4.1% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% $100-5% 3 4 2005-1 2 3 4 2006-1 2 3 4 2007-1 2 3 4 2008-1 2

Implications for Remodeling Outlook Remodeling industry slowdown largely resulting from fallout from housing recession (sales, prices, credit restrictions). Even with strong growth in recent years, with current weakness remodeling has not overshot its long-term growth projections. Industry recovery, while tied to housing situation, will also depend heavily on the health of the broader economy.