July 2016 BRUNSWICK APARTMENT MARKET Occupancy Trends Current research into the Brunswick apartment market indicates continuation of the favorable conditions reported in our May 2015 publication. Occupancy levels remain high and rents continue to climb. previous report was 97%, unchanged from one year prior. On an individual basis, occupancy at two of the complexes increased, two decreased, and two remained the same. This information is presented in the following table As of July 2016, average occupancy for the same six apartment complexes discussed in our Name # Units Built APARTMENT OCCUPANCY TRENDS Oct. 2007 Nov. 2008 Palm Club 132 1999 95% 89% 92% 98% 97% 98.5% 97% 100% Westminster Club 156 1973 81% 86% 86% 92% 96% 90% 99% 96% Fountain Lake 110 1982 93% 86% 100% 100% 99% 97% 95% 94% Retreat @ Grande Lake 192 1999 100% 96% 64% 92% 98% 97% 98% 98% Legacy 168 2008 N/Ap 17% 73% 95% 95% 96% 99% 99% Odyssey Lake 232 2009 N/Ap N/Ap 63% 87% N/Av 97% 94% 96% Feb. 2010 Sept. 2012 Apr. 2013 June 2014 May 2015 Total / Average 990 1995 92% 75% 80% 94% 97% 96% 97% 97% July 2016 Market Rent Trends Over the past approximate year, the average rental rate (on a per square foot basis) for twobedroom, two-bath apartment units within the Brunswick market increased by about 9.0%. All of the communities saw increases, ranging from 2.0% to 15.0%. Westminster Club represents the low end of the range, while Fountain Lake is at the top. With the exception of one (Odyssey Lake), complexes with increased or unchanged occupancy achieved higher rent increases. This trend can be seen in the following chart. DRIGGERS COMMERCIAL GROUP, INC DriggersCommercial.com 2487 Demere Road, Suite 200 St. Simons Island, GA 31522
Page 2 Name # Units SF MARKET RENT TRENDS - 2BR/BA UNITS Oct. 2007 Feb. 2009 Feb. 2010 July 2012 June 2014 May 2015 July 2016 Palm Club 132 1,109 $0.68 $0.66 $0.63 $0.64 $0.71 $0.73 $0.84 Westminster Club (1) 156 1,152 $0.59 N/Av N/Av N/Av $0.56 $0.61 $0.62 Fountain Lake 110 981 $0.75 $0.70 $0.70 $0.71 $0.73 $0.80 $0.87 Retreat at Grande Lake 192 1,166 $0.69 $0.73 $0.72 $0.62 $0.71 $0.74 $0.83 Legacy 168 1,157 N/Ap $0.73 $0.69 $0.69 $0.69 $0.71 $0.78 Odyssey Lake 232 1,162 N/Ap $0.73 $0.73 $0.74 $0.74 $0.74 $0.77 Total / Average 990 1,121 $0.68 $0.71 $0.69 $0.68 $0.69 $0.72 $0.79 (1) 2BR/1.5BA Unit Surveyed Complexes Palm Club: This complex was built in 1999 and is in good condition. It is located on the north side of South Palm Drive, between Altama Avenue and U.S. Highway 17. Amenities offered at Palm Club include gated access, pool, clubhouse, tennis courts, car care center, sports court, and an exercise/fitness center. The complex is well maintained, and current occupancy was reported as 100%. Westminster Club: This is the oldest of the surveyed complexes, built in 1973. The property is located along Highway 17, in an older section of the city. Amenities include a pool, clubhouse, tennis court, sport courts, and exercise/fitness facilities. Upgrades to the interiors of the units have been ongoing during the past few years. Current occupancy is 96%, down slightly from 99% occupancy reported approximately one year ago. Fountain Lake: This complex was built in 1982. It is well maintained, with individual units remodeled over the years. The property is located along U.S. Highway 17, less than ¼-mile north of Spur 25. Renovation of some of the units has occurred within the recent past. Current occupancy is 94%, compared to occupancy of 95% in May 2015. Amenities include a pool, laundry, playground, and fitness center. The Retreat at Grande Lake (Formerly Fox Run - The Landings): Constructed as a traditional apartment complex in 2000, the former Fox Run-The Landings was converted to condominiums in late 2013. The property was subsequently purchased by Retreat Grande Lake, LLC and is once again operated as a traditional apartment complex. The property is located on the east side of Harry Driggers Boulevard in northern Glynn County. Amenities are numerous, including a lake with small accessible island, gated entrance, garage availability, pool, clubhouse, tennis and sport courts, and exercise/fitness facilities. The complex is currently 98% occupied, unchanged from oneyear prior.
Page 3 Legacy: This complex is a relatively new facility, built in 2008. It is located behind Wal-Mart in Brunswick, on the west side of Scranton Connector. The complex has been operational since December 2008, reaching stabilization in mid-2012. The complex has a lake, pool, exercise/fitness center, gated entry, clubhouse, billiard room, theater, and available garages. Current occupancy is 99%, unchanged from occupancy reported in May 2015. Odyssey Lake: This complex is also one of the newer apartments in the area. It is located on the north side of Brunswick, along Georgia Highway 99. A certificate of occupancy was provided the complex in early 2009. The complex has a pool with cabana, playground, exercise/fitness room, and clubhouse. The complex achieved stabilized occupancy of 97% in June 2014. Current occupancy is 96%, up from 94% occupancy in May 2015.
Page 4 Summary The preceding information suggests an overall strong apartment market within the Brunswick area. Occupancy remains high and rental rates continue to climb. None of the complexes we surveyed are offering concessions/discounts and nearly all charge premiums for various features and views. Planned / Recently Completed Development In 2008, some 41 acres of land located along Old Cypress Mill Road was purchased for development of 240 apartments units, 180 townhome units, and 114 duplex units. However, the development was put on hold due to negative effects of the economic recession. In July 2013, the land was sold to Old Cypress Mill Road, LLC and listed for sale. The property has not changed hands and is currently listed for $1.49 million. It is presently zoned PD-R, which allows for 120 duplex units, although it is believed the zoning could be amended to allow 240 apartment units as well As indicated in our May 2015 publication, a previously planned Phase II expansion of the The Reserve at Altama apartment community was subsequently shelved and never undertaken. Original plans included adding 104 multifamily units to Phase I, which is some 20 years old. The complex was sold in late May 2016 to a Georgiabased LLC for $6.3 million. 2014. The garden-style apartment complex is located in the southeast quadrant of U.S. 17 and Southport Parkway, adjacent to the area s new middle school. This location is some 10 miles southwest of downtown Brunswick. The community offers one-, two-, and three-bedroom units, along with amenities such as a clubhouse, fitness center, computer center, playground, covered pavilion, and laundry facilities. The complex is typically fully occupied. Also in 2014, local developer Bill Gross completed construction of a 52-unit income-restricted multifamily complex known as Norwich Commons. The community, located in downtown Brunswick, offers two-, three-, and four-bedroom duplex and townhome style units. Amenities include a clubhouse / laundry / fitness center / gymnasium, which also functions as a leasing office and is also home to a Brunswick Police substation. The 100% income restricted complex opened at full capacity. Construction of Abbington Woods, a 56-unit affordable-housing community, was completed in. Demand Analysis A Fundamental Market Demand Analysis is useful in estimating projected demand for multifamily housing in the Brunswick area over the next five years. Demographic data used to perform the analysis was provided by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and supplied by STDBonline. The analysis is based on a five-mile radius around the midpoint location (intersection of Golden Isles Pkwy. & Chapel Crossing Rd.) pertaining to three available sites in the area that most lend themselves to multifamily development.
The sites locations (as indicated by the following map) include: 1) South side Chapel Crossing Road, with additional frontage along Altama Avenue and Scranton Road. Page 5 2) South side of Gateway Parkway, just north of Golden Isles Parkway and within the Golden Isles Parkway Planned Unit Development. 3) East side of Old Cypress Mill Road, just northeast of Benedict Road, with exposure along the west side of Golden Isles Parkway.
Page 6 Fundamental Market Demand Analysis Line No. Year-> 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Comments/Source 1 Total number of households within 5-mile radius 18,364 18,469 18,574 18,680 18,786 18,893 CCIM/ESRI 2 Growth in households/year 105 105 106 106 107 Calculated 3 Renter Occupancy 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% CCIM/ESRI. 4 Forecasted demand 43 43 43 44 44 Calculated 5 Adjusted for frictional vacancy 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Market Data 6 Forecasted demand for multifamily type housing per year 44 44 45 45 45 Calculated The projection of demand must include an adjustment for the 3.0% frictional vacancy indicated by our survey of area apartments. Frictional vacancy is defined as vacancy unrelated to disequilibria in supply and demand, but rather a typical vacancy rate in a given market operating in equilibrium. In other words, a percentage of units will always be vacant and turnover will routinely occur. As such, it is appropriate to apply an upward adjustment to the projected demand to account for frictional vacancy. As indicated above, the analysis projects demand for multifamily housing equating to between 44 and 45 units per year over the next five years. Granted, market data for ring studies of competing complexes tend to overlap. Still, this analysis gives a good indication of what demand might be in the near future. Our research uncovered no new apartment complexes planned for the area at this time. However, given Brunswick s strong apartment market and availability of land suitable for multifamily development, new apartment complexes could well be developed in the near term. ABOUT DRIGGERS COMMERCIAL GROUP: DCG is a multi-disciplined commercial real estate services firm, offering appraisal, sales and leasing, property management, market/feasibility study services, and consultations. We have a staff of 12, spread among three Southeastern U.S. offices. Our geographic coverage is Georgia and the surrounding states of Florida, Alabama, North and South Carolina and Tennessee. Offices in Atlanta and St. Simons Island, Georgia and Raleigh, North Carolina 912-634-5900 (Main Office) 912-634-5901 (Fax) www.driggerscommercial.com
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