VIRGINIA Home SAleS RepoRt FIRST second QUARTER 2012 Published by Virginia association of realtors, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
Virginia Month-to-Month Sales Trends Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2009 2010 2011 2012 12,000 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 4,758 5,391 6,740 7,212 8,096 9,849 9,593 8,545 8,018 8,384 7,892 6,573 2010 4,562 4,892 7,087 8,337 8,903 10,493 7,137 7,210 6,427 6,035 6,010 6,468 2011 4,713 5,113 7,104 6,760 8,390 8,220 7,968 8,133 6,916 6,246 6,043 6,688 2012 4,945 5,710 6,996 The pace of residential home sales increased in Virginia during the first quarter of 2012, compared to the previous three years. This surge in real estate activity began with strong sales in January and February -- both at the highest levels seen since at least 2009. March 2012 sales were not quite as strong as March 2010 and 2011, but they were strong enough to keep the overall first quarter ahead as compared to the first quarters of the three previous years. best in 4 years best in 4 years -1.6% January February March Looking ahead, the second quarter of 2012 will likely compare favorably to 2011, as home sales were rather slow in both April and June of last year. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Page 2
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 30,000 28,000 27,733 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 16,889 25,157 26,156 22,849 16,541 20,774 18,513 16,930 23,370 23,017 18,977 17,651 12,000 10,000 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 Quarter When viewed on a quarterly basis, the first quarter of 2012 shows further growth in Virginia s residential real estate market with a 4.3% increase in home sales as compared to the first quarter of 2011. This is the second year in a row of growth in first quarter home sales in Virginia, after sales dropped significantly in the first quarter of 2010. For the second quarter 2012 home sales trend, we are likely to see an increase, since home sales during the second quarter of last year were the lowest pace of second quarter sales seen in the past several years. Two significant factors contributing to continued strength in Virginia s housing market are current historically low mortgage interest rates and continued low unemployment levels as compared to other areas of the country. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Page 3
100,000 Virginia Annualized Residential Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 89,640 88,127 87,843 Market Decline 91,051 90,703 93,279 Tax Credit Boost 87,897 83,561 83,950 Post Tax-Credit Decline 79,587 81,830 Recovery? 82,294 83,015 55,000 50,000 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 Quarter When examining long term trends, it seems nearly certain that the worst is behind us as far as the pace of home sales in Virginia. We have now seen solid increases in the annualized pace of home sales in Virginia for four quarters in a row. Each data point on the graph above includes 12 months of home sales data, thus the figure includes home sales from 2011-Q2 through. Using this rolling sum of home sales can provide a clearer indicator of the trends we are seeing in Virginia s housing market. While this graph can take quite a long time to reveal market trends, when it finally does (now) there can be much greater certainty as to the conclusions. While the federal home buyer tax credit provided a brief respite from declining home sales between 2009-Q3 and 2010-Q2, the pace of sales declined again all the way through the second quarter of 2012 when the market began to pick up steam again. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Page 4
Regional Changes in Sales 2011-Q1 vs. Units Northern Virginia -0.3% Central Valley +9.9% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg +8.8% Southwest Virginia +38.2% Southside Virginia +6.5% Central Virginia +3.8% Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay +7.3% Region 2011-Q1 Change Central Valley 860 945 +9.9% Central Virginia 2,588 2,687 +3.8% Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 4,019 4,312 +7.3% Northern Virginia 7,773 7,753-0.3% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 1,192 1,297 +8.8% Southside Virginia 355 378 +6.5% Southwest Virginia 173 239 +38.2% Home sales increased in nearly every region of the Commonwealth during the first quarter of 2012 as compared to the first quarter of 2011. The largest, most populated region (Northern Virginia) did not fare quite as well (-0.3%) as all of the other regions in Virginia (+3.8% to +38.2%). Looking back at earlier data, the lack of increase in sales in Northern Virginia can be attributed to earlier market recoveries in those regions. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Page 5
Virginia Median Residential Sales Price Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos $300,000 Median Sales Price $250,000 $200,000 $216,000 $229,900 $229,900 $225,839 $225,000 $239,900 $249,900 $232,500 $210,000 $235,000 $235,000 +2.4% $220,000 $215,000-0.5% $150,000 $100,000 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 Quarter The median sales price in Virginia increased 2.4% over the past year to $215,000 for all residential sales. The median sales price did show a decline from the fourth quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012, but this is typical for this timeframe. Looking at the longer term trends, the median sales price in Virginia has only decreased by 0.5% over the past three years, as measured by first quarter sales data. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Page 6
Regional Changes in Median Sales Prices 2011-Q1 vs. Northern Virginia +5.9% Central Valley -1.2% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -1.4% Southwest Virginia +6.2% Southside Virginia +11.1% Central Virginia -4.1% Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -1.4% Region 2011-Q1 Change Central Valley $188,200 $186,000-1.2% Central Virginia $170,000 $163,000-4.1% Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay $187,608 $185,000-1.4% Northern Virginia $283,250 $300,000 +5.9% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg $140,000 $138,000-1.4% Southside Virginia $71,000 $78,900 +11.1% Southwest Virginia $91,090 $96,750 +6.2% After serveral years of declining sales prices in all regions of Virginia, we are starting to see stability and even increases in sales prices for some regions. When comparing the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2011, only one region (Central Virginia) experienced a decline in median sales price of more than -2%. While Northern Virginia experienced a slight decline in the pace of sales (-0.3%) during this time frame, the median sales price actually increased 5.9%. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Page 7
Virginia Quarterly Residential Sales Volume Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 9,000 8,198 8,000 7,625 7,182 7,192 Millions of Dollars of Residential Sales 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 4,416 6,411 4,553 6,402 5,433 4,496 6,787 5,263 4,739 3,000 2,000 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 Quarter This graph illustrates the number of millions of dollars of real estate sold during each quarter over the past three years. The volume of real estate sold in the first quarter of 2012 ($4.7B) marks a 5.4% increase from the first quarter of 2011 ($4.5B). This is the first quarterly increase seen in sales volume in Virginia -- the result of both increased sales pace and stabilizing prices. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Page 8
Virginia Average Days On Market Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 120 108 100 96 100 100 103 80 87 84 86 79 81 91 92 91 Average Days On Market 60 40 20 0 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 Quarter The average time to market and sell a house has inreased slightly (+3%) over the past year, but has declined 5% over the past three years. The federal home buyer tax credit certainly spurred on buyer activity during 2009 and 2010, lowering the average days on market, but that did not last too much longer than the period during which those tax credits were available. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Page 9
Virginia Price Distribution Of Residential Home Sales Single Family Homes, Townhomes, Condos 2011-Q1 $2M + $1.5M - $2M 21 27 32 40 +29% +25% $1M - $1.5M 134 139 +4% $750K - $1M 329 326-1% Price Range $500K - $750K $400K - $500K 1,256 1,300 +4% 1,161 1,246 +7% $300K - $400K 2,110 +14% 2,411 $200K - $300K 3,843 3,872 +1% $100K - $200K 5,353 5,364 n/a 0 - $100K 2,727 +7% 2,926 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 Number of Single Family, Townhome and Condo Sales Home sales increased in nearly every price range during the first quarter of 2012 in Virginia, as compared to the first quarter of 2011. Of note, the more moderate price ranges ($100K-$200K, $200K-$300K) experienced very little change in sales pace, while price ranges above $300K experienced much more of an increase during this time period. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Page 10
Regional Changes in Foreclosures 2011-Q4 vs. Northern Virginia -24% Central Valley +29% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg -9% Southwest Virginia -22% Southside Virginia -37% Central Virginia -26% Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay -14% Region 2011-Q4 Change Central Valley 77 99 +29% Central Virginia 586 435-26% Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay 673 582-14% Northern Virginia 1,523 1,159-24% Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg 118 107-9% Southside Virginia 84 53-37% Southwest Virginia 27 21-22% All of Virginia 3,088 2,456-21% Foreclosure rates decreased in nearly every region in Virginia in the first quarter of 2012 to mark an overall 21% decline in Virginia foreclosures as compared to the fourth quarter of 2011. The largest proportional declines were seen in Southside Virginia (-37%), Central Virginia (-26%), Northern Virginia (-24%) and Southwest Virginia (-22%). Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Page 11
16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Monthly Residential Sales VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) 347,000 361,000 7,104 6,996 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 The monthly variation in the pace of home sales is relatively consistent in Virginia as compared to the entire United States. March 2012 home sales declined 4% in the United States (existing home sales only) as compared to March 2011, while Virginia only experienced a 2% decline. Monthly Residential Median Sales Price VIRGINIA (All MLS-Reported Home Sales) UNITED STATES (Existing Home Sales) $300,000 $240,000 $250,000 $200,000 $215,000 $225,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $159,800 $163,800 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 Median home prices have increased in both Virginia and the United States over the past year (March 2011 to March 2012), though home values increased a bit more in the entire United States (+5% during the past year) than in Virginia (+3%). Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Page 12
8% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 5% 4% 6.7% 7.2% 6.9% 7.0% Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor & Statistics 7.4% 7.0% 6.5% 6.4% 6.3% 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 6.0% unemployment rate based on preliminary March 2012 data. 6.5% 6.1% 5.6% Unemployment Rates By State seasonally adjusted, March 2012 (U.S. rate = 8.2 percent) SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics Local Area Unemployment Statistics 14.0% and over 12.0% to 13.9% 10.0% to 11.9% 8.0% to 9.9% 6.0% tto 7.9% 4.0% to 5.9% 3.9% or below Virginia s unemployment rate is at its lowest levels (5.6%) in more than three years, and Virginia currently has the 9th lowest unemployment rate in the country. It is encouraging news that an increasing number of Virginians are employed, as this bodes well for further stability and recovery in Virginia s housing market. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Page 13
6.0% Average 30-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 5.5% 5.42% 5.0% 4.5% 5.00% 5.06% 4.93% 4.97% 4.74% 4.35% 4.71% 4.86% 4.51% 4.0% 4.01% 3.95% 3.99% 3.5% 3.0% 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 5.5% Average 15-Year Mortgage Interest Rates Source: FreddieMac 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 4.6% 4.9% 4.5% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 3.8% 4.1% 4.1% 3.7% 3.3% 3.0% 3.2% 2.5% 2.0% 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2011-Q1 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 Long-term mortgage interest rates have remained relatively steady over the past six months with 30-year fixed rates hovering just under 4%, and 15-year fixed rates remaining just above 3%. These historically low mortgage interest rates certainly play an important part in encouraging buyer activity in Virginia s housing market. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Page 14
The Virginia Association of REALTORS (VAR) is the business advocate for real estate professionals in Virginia. VAR represents more than 29,000 REALTORS active in all phases of real estate brokerage, management, development and appraisal. Our mission is to enhance our membership s ability to achieve business success. All inquiries regarding this report should be directed to: Stacey Ricks, Director of Public Relations Virginia Association of REALTORS 10231 Telegraph Road, Glen Allen, VA 23059 (804) 249-5716 Stacey@VARealtor.com www.varealtor.com/homesales Economic Regions Central Valley: Central Virginia: Hampton Roads / Chesapeake Bay: Northern Virginia: Roanoke / Lynchburg / Blacksburg: Southside Virginia: Southwest Virginia: Albemarle, Augusta, Bath, Buena Vista City, Charlottesville City, Fluvanna, Greene, Harrisonburg City, Highland, Lexington City, Nelson, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Staunton City, Waynesboro City Amelia, Buckingham, Charles City, Chesterfield, Colonial Heights City, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Goochland, Hanover, Henrico, Hopewell City, King and Queen, King William, Louisa, New Kent, Nottoway, Petersburg City, Powhatan, Prince Edward, Prince George, Richmond City, Sussex Accomack, Chesapeake City, Franklin City, Gloucester, Hampton City, Isle of Wight, James City, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Newport News City, Norfolk City, Northampton, Northumberland, Poquoson City, Portsmouth City, Southampton, Suffolk City, Surry, Virginia Beach City, Williamsburg City, York Alexandria City, Arlington, Caroline, Clarke, Culpeper, Essex, Fairfax, Fairfax City, Falls Church City, Fauquier, Frederick, Fredericksburg City, King George, Loudoun, Madison, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, Orange, Page, Prince William, Rappahannock, Richmond, Shenandoah, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren, Westmoreland, Winchester City Alleghany, Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Bedford City, Botetourt, Campbell, Covington City, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Lynchburg City, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford, Roanoke, Roanoke City, Salem City Brunswick, Charlotte, Danville City, Emporia City, Galax City, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenberg, Martinsville City, Mecklenburg, Norton City, Patrick, Pittsylvania Bland, Bristol City, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe Information sourced from multiple listing services across the state with data compiled by R E Stats Inc. All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Figures might not match those reported elsewhere. Published by the Virginia Association of REALTORS Page 15