Lessons Learned from the War for the Ground in San Francisco " make honest mistakes... talk about those mistakes openly and share what was done to correct those mistakes with other[s]" Froward, Handbook, "Establishing a Lesson Learned Program", Center for Army Lessons Learned, June 2011
Seattle s Tech Boom is Driving Up Housing Prices Bloomberg Business July 8 2015 Runaway North Texas home prices spark fears of another price bubble Dallas News June 9 2015 Ouch! Rents in St. Paul have almost doubled since 2014 Citypages.com March 21 2016 Housing prices continue to surge in Winston-Salem area Winston -Salem Journal March 2 2016 Boston area housing costs hitting extreme levels Boston Globe November 2015
Denver's housing cost burdens surpass historical average The Denver Post 8/12/2015 Rising home costs hurt Triangle buyers, renters Raleigh News Observer April 25 2015 Why Are Charlottesville Home Prices So Much More Expensive than Where I m From? Real Central VA.com January 31, 2014 Expect housing prices to skyrocket In Portland Portland Tribune January 21 2016 Austin housing market stays hot, sets records for sales, home prices Austin American-Statesman January 21, 2016
Redevelopment Agency Housing Demolished/Housing Built in Redevelopment Project Areas 1955 to 1996 Units Demolished 14,207 Units Built 7,498 Net Loss 6,709 source: Letter dated February 4, 2003 (118-06503-196) from SFRA to California Department of Housing and Community Development
DRAMATIC DECLINE IN FEDERAL FUNDING FOR AFFORDABLE HOUSING Carters 1978 HUD's Congressional Allocation ( $67.9 B) in 2015 dollars was $249,240,000,000 Obama's 2015 HUD budget REQUEST was $46,600,000,000 Thus, in 2015 dollars Obama second to last year HUD request was 18.6% of Carters second to last year Congressional allocation. Between 2006 and 2015 there was a 55% decline in HOME funding by HUD; From 2007 to 2013 159,000 renters were dropped from HUD renter assistance programs; Between 2000 and 2014 the population living in neighborhoods with federal poverty rates of at least 40% more than doubled; Obama is asking for $48.9 Billion in HUD funding for FY2017, down from $49.3 Billion requested in FY2016,the largest amount his administration ever requested.
$4.4 Trillion in Quantitative Easing Expenditures by Federal Reserve 1. QE1 (December 2008). In December 2008, the Fed started buying longer-term Treasury securities as well as the debt and the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two governmentsponsored enterprises (GSEs).[3] The Fed announced it would purchase up to $100 billion of the GSEs debt and up to $500 billion of their MBS from both banks and the GSEs themselves. 2. QE2 (November 2010). In November 2010, the Fed announced that it would purchase $75 billion per month of longer-termed Treasuries, for a total of $600 billion. These purchases were to be concentrated in Treasury securities with maturities of two to 10 years, though the Fed also intended to purchase some shorter-term and some longer-term securities. 3. QE3 (September 2012). In September 2012, the Fed announced its third round of easing, now referred to as QE3. Under QE3, the Fed s combined securities purchases (long-term Treasuries, GSE debt, and MBS) were increased to approximately $85 billion per month. Unlike its counterparts, QE3 was an open-ended commitment. Rather than commit to purchasing a fixed amount of securities by a certain date, the Fed declared that it would make purchases until it decided that the labor market had sufficiently improved.
From 2011 to 2013 some 113,000 low or very low income people moved out of San Francisco. "Adjusting for other demographic factors, income appears to be a significant contributor to whether an individual has moved out of San Francisco this decade." Office of the Controller-Office of Economic Analysis, February 2015
San Francisco Median Family Income and Median Single Family Home Sale Price 1996-2015 Year Median Family Income Median Price Single Family Home 1996 $61,300 $270,000 1999 $72,400 $372,000 2000 $74,900 $495.000 2001 $80,100 $544,000 2002 $86,100 $567,000 2003 $91,500 $556,000 2004 $95,000 $632,000 2009 $96,800 $634,000 2010 $99,400 $636,000 2013 $101,200 $835,000 2014 $97,100 $1,050,000 2015 $101,900 $1,075,000 % Increase 60% 398% Source: median income household of 4, US Dept. of Housing and Urban Development; SFH price taken from MDA DataQuick Information Systems,www.DQNews.com for May each year; 2012 and 13 March; 2014 November; 2015 July Family Income Increase: 60% SFM Price Increase : 398%
The San Francisco Exodus There is room for San Francisco to grow for many more decades. Our estimate is that if we could produce 5,000 units a year for a sustained period of time, that would be enough to make a real impact on affordability. The Atlantic CityLab Oct 14, 2013 Gabriel Metcalf What's the Matter With San Francisco? Progressive San Francisco had a fatal, Shakespearean flaw that would prove to be its undoing...the city s devastating affordability crisis has an unlikely villain its famed progressive politics. The Atlantic CityLab Jul 23, 2015 Gabriel Matcalf How Burrowing Owls Lead To Vomiting Anarchists (Or SF s Housing Crisis Explained) OK, clarification: Affordable housing advocates would support development if it had a meaningful share of below-market-rate units. Yet we re arguing over shades of gray. Sorry, supply and demand still totally matter. techcrunch, April 14, 2014 Kim-Mai Cutler San Francisco's Self-Defeating Housing Activists Tech companies and workers are vilified while longtime homeowners who fight highdensity growth continue to profit from rising rents and property values. The Atlantic December 29, 2015 Conor Friederdorf
San Francisco Housing Production By Affordability 2007-2016 (Q1) New Units Build 2007 to Q1 2016 Entitled in Planning Pipeline* Percent Built and Entitled by Planning Total Units 25,019 18,242 43,261 Above Mod (> 120% AMI) Mod. (80-120%AMI) Low Income (< 80%AMI) 17,251 (69%) 1,580 (6%) 6,188 (25%) 15,879 (87%) 317 (2%) 2,046 (11%) 33,130 (77%) 1,897 (4%) 8,234 (19%) * Dose not include 22,710 new units approved in three major developments Hunters Point, Treasure Island and ParkMerced Source: SFPD, "Residential Pipeline, 2016Q1" and "Residential Pipeline, 2014 Q4
First, [government] should ensure that city-planning decisions are made from the top down. When decisions are taken at local level, land-use rules tend to be stricter. Second, governments should impose higher taxes on the value of land. In most rich countries, land-value taxes account for a small share of total revenues. Land taxes are efficient. They are difficult to dodge; you cannot stuff land into a bank-vault in Luxembourg. Whereas a high tax on property can discourage investment, a high tax on land creates an incentive to develop unused sites. The Economist, 4 April 2015
Price Restricted Units in San Francisco in 2011 Total Housing Units 2011: 372,831 1 Section 8 units in San Francisco 2011: 9,661 2 Public Housing Units 2011: 6,259 3 Residential Hotel Rooms: 18,810 in 505 buildings 4 Permanently Affordable Housing Units as of 2011: 28,666 5 BMR units (2001-2011) : 1,652 6 Rent Controlled units, 2011: 172,311 7 TOTAL PRICE RESTRICTED UNITS: 237,359 units (64%) 1 San Francisco Planning Department (SFPD), 2011 Housing Inventory (HI), p. 4 2 SFHA, Informational Presentation Proposed Section 8 Program Budget FY 2011 3 SFHA, 2011 PH Budget Presentation 4 SFPD, 2011 HI, page 17 5 SFPD, 2001-04, pg. 28; HI 2006, pg.21, HI 2011, pg.22 6 HI, 2001-04, pg. 32; HI 2006, pg.22 and HI, 2001, pg 23 7 Office of the Controller, Performance Measure Report FY 2012-13, 2013, pg 103
November 2016 Ballot Measures on Protecting Existing and Building New Affordable Housing 6 Measures Establishing or Expanding Price Controls Measure R Burlingame sets maximum allowable rent increases at CPI; just cause eviction; creates rent commission Measure Q San Mateo sets max rent increases at CPI; just cause eviction; creates a rent commission Measure V Mountain View establish rent control Measure L City of Richmond, esttablish rent control, a rent board and just cause evictions Measure JJ Oakland requires request approval from the City if increasing rents more than CPI and extends just cause eviction Measure L1 City of Alameda limits rent increases, requires mediation on rent increases above 5%, limits evictions. Landlord relocation fees under certain circumstances. 7 Measures on Funding Affordable Housing Measure C San Francisco: $180 m GO bond for the acquisition and rehabilitation of existing building for affordable housing Measures J an K: San Francisco Raises sales tax to produce $1.2 B for housing and services for homeless San Franciscans over the next 25 years. Measure S San Francisco: $24m for affordable housing and services for homeless families a year from a 6.3% "set aside" from the Citys Hotel Tax Measure W San Francisco: $45 m a year transfer tax increase on building sold for more than $5m Measures A1 Alameda County: $580 m GO bond for affordable housing construction; Measure K San Mateo County: $300 m over 20 years for affordable housing from a sales tax increase. Measure A Santa Clara County: $950 m GO bond for affordable housing
Lessons Learned 1. Coalition building is critical: a. All politics are local; b. You don't get what you don't ask for, so ask; c. Make a friend before you need a friend. 2. Housing is only an aspect of the social and economic system in which it is located: there is no solitary "housing solution" to our housing crisis; 3. It is a contradiction: The market must be regulated and contained at the LOCAL level which requires allies from OUTSIDE. We must think and act both globally and locally! 4. Stay Calm and Carry On