ATTACHMENT NO. 1 2016 Growth and Staging of Development Report
This page intentionally left blank.
Table of Contents Introduction... 2 Section 1: Provincial Policy Statement (2014) and Provincial Growth Plan (2006) Requirements... 3 Section 2: Residential Inventory... 3 Section 3: Built Boundary Targets... 10 Section 4: Planned Growth Related Capital Projects with Forecasted Timing... 11 Section 5: Industrial Land Inventory... 14 Section 6: Core Area Residential Growth in 2016... 16 Section 7: Infrastructure Growth and Upgrades planned by the Regional Municipality in the City of Cambridge... 16 List of Tables Table 1: Residential Units Built 2007-2016... 4 Table 2: Three Year Residential Unit Inventory... 5 Table 3: Ten Year Residential Unit Inventory... 7 Table 4: Summary of Residential Units on the Development Monitoring Tables (December 31st, 2016) blended with Average Construction Rate and forecasted supply... 9 Table 5: Location and Type of Units Built Relative to the Built Boundary between 2006 and 2015... 10 Table 6: Location and Type of Units Built Relative to the Built Boundary in 2016... 10 Table 7: Industrial Land Sales and Absorption Rates of City Owned Lands... 15 Table 8: Forecasted Endurance of Municipal Industrial Land Inventory in Years at 5,10 and 29 year absorption rates... 15 Table 9: Current Road Construction Projects by the Region as of June 22, 2016... 16 Table 10: Future Road Construction Projects to be undertaken by the Region as of June 22, 2016... 18 List of Maps Map 1: Residential Inventory Three Year Supply... 6 Map 2: Location of Lands Designated for Future Residential Development... 8 Map 3: Cambridge West Community Plan... 11 Map 4: Southeast Galt Community Plan... 12 Map 5: Hespeler West Area... 13 1
Introduction This document fulfills the City s obligations specified by the Province. First, it satisfies a Provincial Policy Statement requirement that municipalities have sufficient residential land on hand to accommodate anticipated growth for the next 3 to 10 years. Secondly, it verifies that enough residential and employment land is available to accommodate population and employment targets set by the Province for the Region and allocated by the Region to constituent municipalities. In addition, the report provides an overview of past, present and anticipated residential and industrial development activity. 2
Section 1: Provincial Policy Statement (2014) and Provincial Growth Plan (2006) Requirements The 2014 Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) requires that, planning authorities shall maintain at all times the ability to accommodate residential growth for a minimum of 10 years through residential intensification and redevelopment and if necessary, lands which are designated and available for residential development. (Policy 1.4.1a) In addition, the PPS requires that, planning authorities shall maintain at all times where new development is to occur, lands with servicing capacity sufficient to provide at least a three year supply of residential units available through lands suitably zoned to facilitate residential intensification and redevelopment, and land in draft approved and registered plans. (Policy 1.4.1b) The 2006 Provincial Growth Plan (Growth Plan) requires that, By the year 2015 and for each year thereafter, a minimum of 40% of all residential development occurring annually within each upper- and single-tier municipality will be within the built-up area. (Policy 2.2.3.1) The Built Boundary was defined by the Province in June 2006, based on the limits of the development in place at the time (shown on Map 2). Based on local needs, the Region Official Plan (ROP) requires that 45% of new residential development in the region as a whole be constructed in the Built-Up Area (ROP 2.C.2). Consequently, the City considers the 45% figure to be the target. Section 2: Residential Inventory As illustrated in Table 1, the residential building permit activity between 2007 and 2016 (inclusive) has resulted in a three year average construction of 511 units/year and coincidentally, the same figure for the ten year average construction, that is, 511 units/year. Average construction rates by unit type over the three and ten year time frames are also shown. This information is used to determine demand for residential units (absorption rate). As of December 31st, 2016, there were 601 unbuilt residential units in registered plans, and 2415 unbuilt residential units in draft approved plans (Table 2) for a total of 3016 units. The Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) requires that the units on registered and draft approved plans be in sufficient supply to accommodate three years of demand. The most recent three year average demand for residential units based on building permits was 511 units/year. Based on this, a three year supply is 1533 units. As the current supply is 3016 units within Registered and Draft Approved Plans, the City of Cambridge is easily meeting the requirement of the PPS for a three year supply of units. In addition, the 2014 PPS expanded the type of units that could be used to meet the three year supply to include units in intensification and redevelopment applications (includes unbuilt site plans, residual blocks from older plans of subdivision, and other vacant residentially zoned parcels which are not included in the subdivision counts above). 3
Table 1: Residential Units Built 2007-2016 In addition to the unbuilt units within draft approved and registered subdivisions, as of December 2016, there were 3453 units on current and inactive intensification applications. In some cases, these infill sites have development challenges such as contamination and slope. Consequently, some of these infill sites may have a development potential beyond three years. However, the majority of these 3453 potential residential units could be provided within the three year time frame established in the 2014 PPS. This is illustrated in Table 3, broken 4
down by types of unit. The 6469 units in total represent a 12.7 year supply, applying the average annual units on Building Permits for the previous 3 years. Table 2: Three Year Residential Unit Inventory Three Year Supply Plan Type Low Density (1) (Single and semidetached units) Medium Density (Row or cluster townhouse units) High Density (Apartment Units) 40+ Units/ha. Total Units Registered Plans 67 270 264 601 Draft Approved Plans 972 708 735 2415 Infill (Site Plan and Rezoning Applications) 7 522 2924 3453 Sub-total for 3 Year Supply 1046 1500 3923 6469 Source: Development Monitoring Tables (as of Dec.31, 2016) City of Cambridge Development and Infrastructure Department. (1) The density is determined by the land area taken up by the unit design. Density refers to the number of units that can exist on a hectare or acre. Single and semi-detached units take up more land area than townhouses or apartment units. The locations of the plans and sites that form the basis for the three year supply are shown on Map 1. This map is based on data compiled at the end of 2016 for the December 31st edition of the Development Monitoring Tables. The accompanying table (Table 3: Ten Year Residential Unit Inventory) shows the potential unit count by type of unit described as well as the density category for each of the two areas of the city that are planned to accommodate future residential development. Community Plans were once used on a regular basis to illustrate development concepts at the City of Cambridge. The names, boundaries, unit types and quantities proposed in Community Plans are still helpful in communicating the geographic location, boundaries and development potential of those lands. Map 2 displays the two locations in Cambridge where new residential growth can be accommodated beyond three years from now. Note that the 10 Year Supply could increase based on Regional Official Plan (ROP) Policy 2.B.3(J) and how the additional 115 hectares (284 acres) added to the urban area in Cambridge is dealt with (e.g. land use mix). 5
Map 1: Residential Inventory Three Year Supply 6
Table 3: Ten Year Residential Unit Inventory Plan Type Low Density (Single and Semidetach Medium Density (Townhouses: Row & Cluster) Ten Year Supply High Density (Apartment) 40+ Units/ha Total Units Preliminary Plans (1) 1236 1024 1098 3358 Southeast Galt Community Plan 4,724 Area (ac.) (ha.) 525 212 292 118 Density (units/ ac. ha.) 6.4 15.8 16.2 40 Total for 10 Year Supply 8,082 (1) Preliminary Plans have been assigned a 30T number and are under review but have not received Draft Approved status as of Dec.31, 2016. (2) Based on an overall Persons Per Unit (PPU) of 2.6 from the latest Census information, the 24.5 units per hectare results in approximately 64 people/jobs per hectare. This meets the Growth Plan target of 50 persons and/or jobs per hectare in greenfield area. The ROP target of 55 persons and/or jobs per hectare is also met. In Residential areas the Region expects that some jobs will exists due to people working at home. It should be noted that the Provincial Growth Plan, which is currently under review, establishes population and employment targets for the Region which have been subsequently allocated to the City through the Regional Official Plan. In 2015 the appeal of the Regional Official Plan (ROP) was resolved. The decision required the ROP to use the 2031 population and employment targets instead of the 2029 targets. This may present challenges in that these long range figures are based on a shift to much higher density transit oriented residential development. Ongoing monitoring of the growth situation will occur. Table 4 uses the traditional methodology to meet the requirements of the PPS. This methodology uses past demand (measured by units on Building Permits) to predict future demand. However, using past demand to predict the future has been criticized. An alternative methodology would be to use figures based on market trend forecasts. Limitations of these forecasts are that they often vary depending on the source and typically use broad trends to generate ranges applied at a national or provincial level geography, rather than specific local geographies. 817 330 9.9 (2) 24.5 Source: Development Monitoring Tables (as of Dec.31, 2016) City of Cambridge Development and Infrastructure Department. 7
Table 4 illustrates that Cambridge meets the PPS requirements by maintaining a supply of residential units that exceed the current three and ten year demand, which covers forecasted demand out to 2027. Map 2: Location of Lands Designated for Future Residential Development 8
Table 4: Summary of Residential Units on the Development Monitoring Tables (December 31st, 2016) blended with Average Construction Rate and forecasted supply Plan Type Low (1) Medium (2) High (3) Total Density Density Density Units Registered Plans 67 270 264 601 Draft Approved Plans 972 708 735 2415 Infill (Site Plan and Rezoning Applications) 7 522 2924 3453 Total of 3 Year Supply Units 1046 1500 3923 6469 % of Total 17.4% 25.0% 57.6% 100% Three Year Average Construction Rate Remaining Years of Supply (Supply/3 yr Average Construction) 178 99 233 511 5.9 15.2 16.8 12.7 Preliminary Plans (4) 1236 1024 1098 3358 Total Units on all Applications (+ Prelim.Plans) 2282 2524 5021 9827 % of Total 23.2% 25.7% 51.1% 100% Units on Community Plans and Areas (5) 1097 1213 2414 4724 % of Total 23.2% 25.7% 51.1% 100% Total Units (Applications & Community Plans) Ten Year Average Construction Rate Remaining Years of Supply (Supply/10 yr Average Construction) 3379 3737 7435 14551 219 107 186 511 15.4 34.9 40.0 28.5 Source: City of Cambridge Development & Infrastructure Department (1) Single and Semi-detached units. (2) Row and Cluster Townhouse units. (3) Apartment units (40+ units/ha.). (4) Preliminary Plans are plans for which an application for subdivision has been received and the plan is under review for Draft Approved status. (5) Unit Types On Community Plans and Areas are typically unspecified. However, to provide an estimate of the endurance of the supply at the ten year average construction rate, the unit proportion of the total of all plans has been applied to the Community Plan and Area figures (23.2% Single & Semi Detached, 25.7% Rowhouses, 51.1% Apartments). This unit apportioning may not reflect the unit mix when eventually approved. 9
Section 3: Built Boundary Targets In 2006, the Province introduced the Growth Plan and established a Built Boundary for every municipality subject to the Plan, which is identified on Map 2. The Growth Plan set an annual target of 40% of new units to be built within the Built Boundary starting in 2015. The Regional Official Plan increased this target to 45%. Since the introduction of the Growth Plan in 2006, and up until the end of 2015, approximately 45% of all residential building permits in Cambridge have been within the Built Boundary as shown in Table 5. On a year to year basis the proportion of units built within the Built Boundary can vary significantly. The percent of units built within the Built Boundary was only 13% in 2015 and soared to 54% in 2016 (Table 6). It remains to be seen if this trend continues. There is an estimated supply of over 2,900 potential units on infill and rezoning applications within the Built Boundary waiting to be built. Table 5: Location and Type of Units Built Relative to the Built Boundary between 2006 and 2015 Semi- Single Year Unit Type Apartment Residential/ Townhouse Detached Detached Total by Unit Commercial Dwelling Dwelling Location Inside 1212 122 468 6 267 2075 Built 83% 100% 45% 43% 13% 45% 2006 to 2015 Boundary Outside Built Boundary Total by Unit Type 250 0 566 8 1740 2564 17% 0% 55% 57% 87% 55% 1462 122 1034 14 2007 4639 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: City of Cambridge Development & Infrastructure Department Table 6: Location and Type of Units Built Relative to the Built Boundary in 2016 Year 2016 Unit Type Inside Built Boundary Outside Built Boundary Total by Unit Type Apartment Unit Residential/ Commercial Townhouse Semi- Detached Dwelling Single Detached Dwelling Total by Location 315 6 27 2 13 363 100% 100% 44% 100% 4% 54% 0 0 34 0 280 314 0% 0% 56% 0% 96% 46% 315 6 61 2 293 677 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: City of Cambridge Development & Infrastructure Department 10
Section 4: Planned Growth Related Capital Projects with Forecasted Timing Maps 3, 4, and 5 follow and provide details of the three areas planned for future development showing the area boundaries and the planned construction years for the related infrastructure. The maps were provided by the Engineering Division of the Development and Infrastructure Department and display planned infrastructure improvements approved in the Capital Budget. Map 3: Cambridge West Community Plan Source: Capital Budget. 11
Map 4: Southeast Galt Community Plan Source: Capital Budget. 12
Map 5: Hespeler West Area Source: Capital Budget. 13
Section 5: Industrial Land Inventory Tables 7 and 8 reveal the historical absorption rates of City owned industrial lands, the current inventory of vacant industrial land, and the estimated current supply based on past absorption rates. It should be noted that industrial land absorption rates tend to display significant fluctuations from year to year. Over the period 2007 to 2016 the average annual industrial land absorption rate (10 years) has been 3.5 hectares per year (8.7 acres per year) according to City of Cambridge Economic Development Division data. The Boxwood Business Campus has the greatest supply of vacant unbuilt lands (greenfield) available to meet industrial land demand in the short to medium term. The Creekside lands (north Cambridge) are also expected to satisfy short to medium term demand when they come on line. Over the longer term it is anticipated additional Greenfield land known as the North Cambridge Business Park and the Millgate subdivision in Blair will be available for industrial employment uses. As a result, there is limited Greenfield industrial land available for short term development. The limited supply of industrial land results in a need to protect these lands for industrial uses, as required in the Provincial Growth Plan, and not allowing other non-industrial / institutional / commercial uses to develop on them. In keeping with the provisions of the Growth Plan and the Regional Official Plan (ROP), there is a requirement in the Cambridge Official Plan(OP) to achieve certain employment densities within the Industrial area and protect these lands from use for other non-employment purposes. As a result, the target for those lands designated Prime Industrial/ Strategic Reserve is 25 jobs per hectare in part of North Cambridge. The target for other employment lands is 40 residents and jobs per hectare, which is in conformity with the ROP. Table 7 displays the historical City owned land sales and closings for which absorption rates at various time frames are calculated. Note that the Closed land sales are used to calculate the absorption rates. An examination of the absorption rates reveals that the average area sold per year trend declines as the time frame moves closer to the present. Economic Development staff is of the opinion that the reason s for the apparent decline is not necessarily a lack of demand but rather a low inventory of parcels over the past decade. 14
Table 7: Industrial Land Sales and Absorption Rates of City Owned Lands YEAR Total Municipal Land Sales (hectares) Total Municipal Land Sales (acres) 2016 0.5 1.13 2015 4.2 10.42 2014 7.7 18.9 2013 0 0 2012 3.2 7.9 2011 5.8 14.5 2010 1.1 2.6 2009 0 0 2008 4.8 11.9 2007 8 19.8 2006 12 29.6 2005 14.9 36.8 2004 18.1 44.8 2003 23.2 57.4 2002 23.7 58.7 2001 36.9 91.1 2000 76.8 189.7 Total Municipal Industrial Land Sold 240.9 595.25 Absorption Rates for various time Hectares frames absorbed/year Acres absorbed/year Last 5 years 3.1 7.7 Last 10 years 3.5 8.7 Source: City of Cambridge, Economic Development Division. Table 8 displays the number of years the municipal industrial land supply is expected to last, using the absorption rates calculated for five and ten year time frames. Table 8: Forecasted Endurance of Municipal Industrial Land Inventory in Years at 5,10 and 29 year absorption rates Total Area of remaining vacant Municipal Industrial Land (Hectares, Acres) 31.6 78.2 Estimated endurance of Municipal Industrial land Inventory using stated absorption rates. Absorption Rates for Hectares Acres various time frames absorbed/year absorbed/year Years of Supply remaining Last 5 years 3.1 7.7 10.2 Last 10 years 3.5 8.7 9.0 All Years 12.9 31.9 2.5 Source: Derived from City of Cambridge, Economic Development Division source data. 15
Section 6: Core Area Residential Growth in 2016 In 2016, 224 new residential units were created in the three Community Core Areas: An 11 storey, 152 unit apartment building is under construction at 19 Guelph Avenue in the Hespeler Community Core Area (up from zero units in 2015). A 5 storey, 66 unit apartment building was built at 205 Eagle Street North in the Preston Community Core area (reported under construction in 2015). 6 apartment units were renovated and brought back into the rental market after being vacant for a number of years at 51 Main Street in the Galt Community Core Area. Just outside the Galt Community Core area, at 58 Beverly Street, a building permit to renovate the two storey vacant industrial building into 13 stacked townhouses was issued in September, 2016. There are currently a total of 1145 units on applications at various stages of approval in the three Community Core Areas. There are 454 units on one rezoning application and 402 units between 6 Site Plan Applications in the Galt Core; there are a total of 65 units proposed on two dormant Site Plan applications and 176 units on a dormant approved Rezoning application in the Preston Core Area; and 42 units remaining in the Hespeler Core Area on an active approved Site Plan. The applications are for medium to high density housing. It should be noted that some of the applications may take longer to advance to approval and construction due to various factors including site issues such as topography, contamination, environmental approvals, infrastructure requirements, financing, and market conditions. Section 7: Infrastructure Growth and Upgrades planned by the Regional Municipality in the City of Cambridge The Region s website summarizes current and future road construction projects. Note that the time frame includes the project planning phase and the construction phase and that they are subject to change. Tables 10 and 11 that follow briefly describe these projects. Table 9: Current Road Construction Projects by the Region as of June 22, 2016 Location of Construction Description of Construction Timing Cedar St. (Osborne St. to Cambridge Boundary) Reconstruction with Storm Sewers, Bike Lanes and Sidewalks Summer 2016 to Summer 2017 Coronation Blvd. at Cambridge Memorial Hospital Reconstruction Summer 2017 King St. (Eagle St. to Fountain St.) and Fountain St.(King St.to Shantz Hill Rd.) Road Widening with Bike Lanes and Sidewalks Summer 2017 16
Fountain St.(Blair Rd. to Dickie Settlement Rd.) Fountain St. (Blair Bridge at Grand River) Fountain St.(King St.to Hwy 401) Franklin Boulevard (Reg. Rd. 36), Myers Rd. to Hwy 401 Resurfacing Reconstruction Road Widening with Bike Lanes and Sidewalks October 2016 to December 2018 October 2016 to December 2018 Spring to Fall 2017 Year 2 South - 125m South of Champlain Blvd. to 200m South of Main St. Year 1 North 200m North of Clyde Road to 200m North of Avenue Road. Franklin Boulevard Extension (Reg.Rd.36 Myers Rd. to South Boundary Rd. South Boundary Road. Hwy 24 (Water St.) to Hwy 8 (Dundas St.) Phase 1A Franklin from 125m South of Champlain Blvd to South City Limit. Phase 1B Bridge at South Boundary Road/Cheese Factory Road Shantz Hill Road (Reg.Rd.8), Fountain St. to Hwy 401 Eastbound Ramp. Reconstruction with Roundabouts, Center Median, and Multi-use Trails. Road Reconstruction, New Road Construction. New Road Construction, Multi- Use Trails, New Bridge Construction. June 2017 to late summer 2018 April 2018 to late fall 2018 Fall 2017 to end of 2018. Fall 2017 to end of 2018. Resurfacing with Sidewalks Spring to Fall 2017. The projects and schedules are based on the program approved by Regional Council on June 22, 2016. Source: http://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/gettingaround/currentconstructionprojects.asp (Mar.22, 2016) 17
Table 10: Future Road Construction Projects to be undertaken by the Region as of June 22, 2016 Location of Construction Dundas St. (Hespeler Rd. to Elgin St.) Fountain St.N.(Cherry Blossom Rd. to Fairway Rd./Kossuth Rd.) Fountain St.N.(King St.W. to Cherry Blossom Rd) King St.(Eagle St. to Bishop St.) St. Andrews Street Reconstruction, Grand Avenue Southerly to Cambridge Boundary Description of Construction Construction of a new road, curbs and gutters and sidewalks. Additionally this project will include underground replacement of storm sewers, watermains and sanitary sewers. This project will also include 2 small bridge rehabilitations. The Region of Waterloo is currently undertaking a planning study to consider proposed improvements to Fountain Street from Cherry Blossom Road to Kossuth Road / Fairway Road by widening the road to 4 lanes and enhance pedestrian/cyclists facilities. Reconstruct the existing road structure. The timing of this reconstruction presents an opportunity to address other deficiencies along this road. These deficiencies include a lack of cycling lanes and a lack of continuous sidewalks within the project limits. Replacement of sanitary sewers, watermain, storm sewers, pavement structure including new concrete curb and sidewalk. May include on-road cycling lanes, upgrades to transit pads as well as boulevard landscaping and streetscaping features. This project is to address deteriorated underground infrastructure including storm sewer, sanitary sewer and watermain as well as pavement condition and active transportation (cycling, walking) needs. Timing Construction to occur between 2018 and 2019. Construction to occur between 2018 and 2019. Construction to occur between May 2017 and 2019. Construction to occur between May 2019 and September 2020. Construction to occur between 2017 and 2018. The projects and schedules are based on the program approved by Regional Council on June 22, 2016. Source: http://www.regionofwaterloo.ca/en/gettingaround/futureconstructionprojects.asp (Mar.22, 2016) 18