SHENANDOAH MARKET REPORT VALLEY Q1 2015 NORTH SHENANDOAH INDUSTRIAL VALLEY NORTH INDUSTRIAL MARKET REPORT FIRST QUARTER 2015 Market Ripe for Speculative Falling Demand for Obsolete Product Not Indicative of Market Health MARKET OUTLOOK VACANCY NET ABSORPTION CONSTRUCTION RENTAL RATE *Projected Q1 2015 Q1 2016* MARKET SUMMARY At first glance, it appears as if the industrial market in the Northern Shenandoah Valley may be slipping. However, upon deeper scrutiny, it is apparent that negative net absorption and a slight uptick in vacancy was driven primarily by one, large, antiquated building being put back on the market in Waynesboro, Virginia. The former Mohawk Carpet building at 901 South Delphine Avenue in Waynesboro is 463,473 square feet of low-ceiling industrial space built in 1954 and not of institutional grade quality. Its size offsets other positive news in the market, including the leasing of 165,000 square feet by Bowman Andros Foods in Edinburg, Virginia and 130,000 square feet by MSA in Winchester. MARKET INDICATORS Q1 2014 Q1 2015 VACANCY RATE 9.8% 9.8% ABSORPTION* 500,114-281,734 DELIVERIES* 103,402 520,056 UNDER CONSTRUCTION 1,520,656 1,000,600 ASKING RENTS/SF $4.82 $4.75 * Trailing four quarter total 390 Airport Road Demand for space in Winchester was particularly strong during the quarter. In addition to the MSA transaction, the National Wildlife Building (244,500 square feet) sold to the InterChange Group and 11,160 square feet of warehouse space was absorbed at 255 Fort Collier Road, bringing overall warehouse vacancy in Winchester down to 6.7 percent. The introduction of so much older space at one time also compressed asking rates, and the de
crease in advertised rates for warehouse space masked the increase in rates for higher quality space. Class A, or institutional grade warehouse in the Northern Shenandoah Valley, is a rapidly shrinking commodity, and asking rates have increase according. They are now above $4.00 per square foot on a triple net bases for existing product and approaching $5.00 per square foot for build-to-suits. ABSORPTION During the past quarter, there was 281,734 square feet of space returned to the Shenandoah Valley North industrial market. Comparatively, there was 468,928 square feet of space relinquished in the fourth quarter of 2014. Over the last four quarters, the just under 500,000 square feet of space has been absorbed. Both warehouse space and flex space were negative for the quarter, with 274,784 square feet of space and 6,950 square feet of space returned to the market, respectively. DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY During the first quarter of 2015, there were no deliveries in the Shenandoah Valley North industrial market. This compares to one building, totaling 70,000 square feet, delivered last quarter. Since the first quarter 2014, 520,056 square feet of industrial space was added to the market, and the number of buildings in the market increased from 638 to 640. There was 1,000,600 square feet of space under construction at the end of the first quarter 2015. Located at 11835 Newgate Boulevard in Hagerstown, the building is expected to deliver in the fourth quarter of 2015. It was the only building over 30,000 square feet under construction at the end of the first quarter of 2015. VACANCY With negative absorption in the Shenandoah Valley North industrial market, the vacancy rate increased over the quarter to end at 9.8 percent. This was up 32 basis points since the fourth quarter of 2015 when it was 9.5 percent. All the increase occurred in space controlled by landlords as the direct vacancy increased from 9.3 percent to 9.6 percent. Sublease space remained low in the market with only 0.2 percent of the vacancy space on the market from tenants. The lowest vacancy rate was in Augusta County, where it was less than one percent. The highest rate was in Salem where the vacancy rate for the quarter registered at 24.9 percent
Recent Deliveries Project Submarket RBA Delivery 4700 EARLY ROAD ROCKINGHAM COUNTY 70,000 Q4 2014 WINCHESTER 81 LOGISTIC CENTER FREDERICK COUNTY, VA 450,056 Q2 2014 Lead Tenant TENNECO McKESSION Projects Project Submarket RBA Delivery Lead Tenant Liberty at Hunters Green II Bldg B Hagerstown/Washington County 1,000,600 Q4 2015 Fed Ex RENTAL RATES The Shenandoah Valley North industrial market saw a decrease in average rental rates from last quarter. It fell from $4.82 to $4.75 per square foot. The direct asking rate for warehouse was $4.48 per square foot for the first quarter 2015, down from $4.63 per square foot at the end of the fourth quarter of 2014. The decrease in rates was likely due to cheaper industrial space coming on the market. The direct average asking rate for flex space ended the quarter at $9.45 per square foot, down from the fourth quarter of 2014 when it registered $9.48 per square foot.
OUTLOOK The market is expected to continue to strengthen throughout 2015 with the continued positive absorption of Class A and B warehouse and flex product. This should result in a decrease in vacancy and a gradual increase in asking rents. The prospect of speculative development of institutional grade warehouse is on the horizon in markets such as Winchester as larger requirements for space can only be satisfied by buildto-suit options. Most recently, Trex committed to a build-tosuit of approximately 150,000 square feet in the Apple Valley Industrial Park, and a west coast based manufacturer is searching for sites ranging between 50,000 and 200,000 square feet for an inland port related distribution facility. There has already been speculative construction in the market. The 100,000-square-foot development at 4700 Early Road in Rockingham County broke ground on a speculative basis, and Tenneco has since committed to 30,000 square feet of the project. 182 Johns Manville Road Drive Additionally, with the recent announcement that Proctor & Gamble will construct a multi-million square foot manufacturing and distribution campus in Berkeley County, West Virginia, it is expected that demand for industrial space will increase up and down the Shenandoah Valley North market as their vendors look for space near the new facility. This demand, currently, can only be met by build-to-suit construction. Older, antiquated space will most likely continue to languish unless capital investment is committed to updating these facilities. As an example, the new owners at the former Johns Manville manufacturing plant in Edinburg, Virginia invested millions of dollars to improving the property. This upgrade facilitated the 165,000-square-foot lease by Bowman Andros Foods during the first quarter of 2015. Even with this commitment to improvement, some buildings with low ceilings or tight column spacing will remain unleasable. Recent Significant Lease Transactions Tenant Address Submarket Size (SF) Quarter Bowman Andros 182 Johns Manville Drive Shenandoah County 165,000 Q4 2014 MSA 390 Airport Road Frederick County, VA 130,000 Q3 2014 WellPoint, Inc. 1175 N Main Street Harrisonburg City 102,000 Q3 2014 Undisclosed 555 International Parkway Botetourt County 100,000 Q2 2014 Frontier Communications/ Verizon 5158 Williamsport Pike Berkeley County 67,200 Q1 2015
SHENANDOAH VALLEY NORTH INDUSTRIAL MARKET STATISTICS NORTH SHENANDOAH Sublet Prior Qtr Lease Flex 45 4,063,801 8.8% - 8.8% 8.7% - -6,950-6,950 $ 9.45 Warehouse 595 84,455,659 9.7% 0.3% 9.8% 9.5% 1,000,600-274,784-274,784 $ 4.48 Total 640 88,519,460 9.6% 0.2% 9.8% 9.5% 1,000,600-281,734-281,743 $ 4.75 MARYLAND WEST VIRGINIA Sublet Prior Qtr Lease Hagerstown/Washington County, MD Flex 14 1,140,845 9.0% - 9.0% 9.0% - - - $ 9.50 Warehouse 135 16,499,989 8.6% 0.3% 9.0% 8.5% 1.000.600-72,767-72,767 $ 5.69 Total 149 17,640,834 8.6% 0.3% 9.09% 8.5% 1,000,600-72,767-72,767 $ 6.35 Sublet Prior Qtr Lease Berkeley County, WV Flex 2 118,000 53.5% - 53.5% 53.5% - - - Withheld Warehouse 28 9,173,939 7.9% - 7.9% 8.1% - 12,053 12,053 $ 4.16 Total 30 9,291,939 8.5% - 8.5% 8.7% - 12,053 12,053 $ 4.16 Sublet Prior Qtr Lease Jefferson County, WV Flex 2 72,824 4.1% - 4.1% 4.1% - - - $ 11.00 Warehouse 18 1,666,788 27.1% - 27.1% 27.1% - - - $ 3.62 Total 20 1,739,612 26.2% - 26.25 26.2% - - - $ 3.65 Sublet Prior Qtr Lease Frederick County, VA Flex 11 1,067,334 7.9% - 7.9% 7.4% - -5,000-5,000 $ 10.00 Warehouse 62 8,222,680 2.6% - 2.6% 6.6% - 327,304 327,304 $ 4.17 Total 73 -,290,014 3.2% - 3.2% 6.7% - 322,304 322,304 $ 5.03 VIRGINIA Sublet Prior Qtr Lease Winchester City, VA Flex 3 705,304 - - - - - - - n/a Warehouse 17 2,632,071 19.7% - 19.7% 14.1% - -147,365-147,365 $ 4.21 Total 20 3,337,375 15.6% - 15.6% 11.1% - -147,365-147,365 $ 4.21 Sublet Prior Qtr Lease Warren County, VA Flex - - n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Warehouse 11 3,517,647 1.4% - 1.4% 1.7% - 8,400 8,400 $ 4.47 Total 11 3,517,647 1.4% - 1.4% 1.7% - 8,400 8,400 $ 4.47 Sublet Prior Qtr Lease Shenandoah County, VA Flex - - n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Warehouse 19 2,553,725 20.6% - 20.6% 27.0% - 163,000 163,000 $ 2.80 Total 19 2,553,725 20.6% - 20.6% 27.0% - 163,000 163,000 $ 2.80
SHENANDOAH VALLEY NORTH INDUSTRIAL MARKET STATISTICS Sublet Sublet Prior Qtr Prior Qtr Lease Augusta/Staunton/Waynesboro, VA Flex - - n/a n/a n/a n/a - n/a n/a n/a Warehouse 32 7,612,724 15.5% - 15.5% 9.4% - -463,473-463,473 $ 3.24 Total 32 7,612,724 15.5% - 15.5% 9.4% - -463,473-463,473 $ 3.24 Lease Rockingham/Harrisonburg, VA Flex 2 154,966 10.3% - 10.3% 10.3% - - - Withheld Warehouse 34 5,143,386 4.8% - 4.8% 3.2% - -85,200-85,200 $ $5.34 Total 36 5,298,352 5.0% - 5.0% 3.4% - -85,200-85,200 $ 5.34 VIRGINIA Sublet Prior Qtr Lease Rockbridge/Lexington/Buena Vista, VA Flex - - n/a n/a n/a n/a - n/a n/a n/a Warehouse 12 2,525,009 6.6% 3.0% 9.6% 9.6% - - - $ 3.34 Total 12 2,525,009 6.6% 3.0% 9.6% 9.6% - - - $ 3.34 Sublet Prior Qtr Lease Botetourt County, VA Flex 1 33,905 - - - - - - - n/a Warehouse 28 2,902,764 14.7% - 14.7% 14.7% - - - $ 3.60 Total 29 2,936,669 14.5% - 14.5% 14.5% - - - $ 3.60 Sublet Prior Qtr Lease Roanoke County, VA Flex 1 146,000 - - - - - - - n/a Warehouse 38 5,289,172 8.2% - 8.2% 8.8% - 30,000 30,000 $ 4.98 Total 39 5,435,172 8.0% - 8.0% 8.6% - 30,000 30,000 $ 4.98 Sublet Prior Qtr Lease Roanoke City/Salem Flex 5 232,816 7.3% - 7.3% 6.4% - -1,950-1,950 $ 13.67 Warehouse 161 16,715,765 10.7% 0.1% 10.8% 10.5% - -46,736-46,736 $ 5.50 Total 166 16,948,581 10.6% <0.1% 10.7% 10.5% - -48,686-48,686 $ 5.56
MARKET DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS FOUND IN THIS REPORT Deliveries: Buildings that complete construction during a specified period of time. In order for space o be considered delivered, a certificate of occupancy must have been issued for the property. Direct Space: Space that is being offered for lease directly from the landlord or owner of a building, as opposed to space being offered in a building by another tenant (or broker of a tenant) trying to sublet a space that has already been leased. Existing Inventory: The square footage of buildings that have received a certificate of occupancy and are able to be occupied by tenants. It does not include space in buildings that are either planned, under construction or under renovation. Inventory: Includes all existing multi or single tenant leased or owner-occupied office properties greater than or equal to 10,000 square feet (Net rentable area). Does not include government owned buildings. Leasing Activity: The volume of square footage that is committed to and signed under a lease obligation for a specific building or market in a given period of time. It includes direct leases, subleases and renewals of existing leases. It also includes any pre-leasing activity in planned, under construction, or under renovation buildings. : The net change in occupied space over a given period of time. Unless other wise noted, net Rentable Building Area (RBA): The total square footage of a building that can be occupied by, or assigned to a tenant for the purpose of determining a tenant s rental obligation. This report tracks buildings with 30,000 square feet of more of space. Includes competitive space in Flex and Warehouse properties both single- and multitenanted buildings. Excludes buildings that are owned and operated by the Federal Government. Sublease Space: Space that has been leased by a tenant and is being offered for lease back to the market by the tenant with the lease obligation. Sublease space is sometimes referred to as sublet space. Triple Net (NNN) Rent a triple net lease, tenants are expected to pay real estate taxes, common area maintenance and utilities in addition to the base rent. Weighted Average Asking Rental s: Average rental rates weighted by the total square feet available for direct lease. Data is based on Triple net rents, and includes all costs associated with occupying the space, including taxes, insurance, maintenance, janitorial services and utilities. Reports on an annual per square foot basis. Vacant Space: Space that is not currently occupied by a tenant, regardless of any lease obligation that me be on the space includes direct and sublease space. 502 offices in 67 countries on 6 continents United States: 140 Canada: 31 Latin America: 24 Asia Pacific: 199 EMEA: 108 $2.3 billion in annual revenue 1.7 billion square feet under management Over 15,800 professional FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT: Rob Hartley Director of Research robert.hartley@colliers.com TEL +1 703 394 4852 FAX +1 703 394 4801 Colliers International Tysons Corner 8045 Leesburg Pike Vienna, VA 22182 TEL +1 703 394 4800 FAX +1 703 394 4301 Accelerating success.