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-218 Table of Contents UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication ( 218).. 4 Population... 8 1.1 Metro Vancouver Population 28 Present 1.2 Metro Vancouver Population Growth Rate (%yoy) 1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration 1.4 British Columbia International Migration 1.5 British Columbia Net Migration 1.6 BC s Population Growth Breakdown Economic Indicators..... 9 2.1 Bank of Canada 5 Year Posted Rate (%) 2.2 Consumer Price Index, Canada, BC, Metro Vancouver 2.3 Metro Vancouver Labour Force Totals: 28 Present 2.4 BC Unemployment Rate 2.5 Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 28 Present 2.6 Canada GDP: 28 Present Economic Indicators.......1 3.1 Budgetary Balance - Canada 3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 28 Present 3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars) 3.4 BC Bankruptcies 3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close) 3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded Housing Economic Indicators... 11 4.1 Homeowner Protection Office Single Family Registrations 4.2 Homeowner Protection Office Multi-Family Registrations Housing Economic Indicators... 12 5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts 5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts 5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts 5.4 Residential Building Permit Values, Metro Vancouver 5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index, BC, Metro Vancouver 5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates New Home Data: Concrete Condominiums.. 13 6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales 6.3 Concrete Condominium Inventory Levels 6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels Table of Contents Page 2
-218 New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums... 14 7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales 7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Inventory Levels 7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels New Home Data: Townhomes... 15 8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing 8.2 Townhome Sales 8.3 Townhome Inventory Levels 8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels UA Affordability Index: New Home Data.. 16 9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums 9.2 UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums 9.3 UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver... 17 1.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 1.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices 1.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 1.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices 1.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 1.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board.... 18 11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 11.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices 11.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 11.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices 11.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 11.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments... 19 12.1 Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver 12.2 Turnover Rates by Region 12.3 Availability Rates by Region 12.4 Current Rent Per Square Foot 12.5 Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages Methodology & Definitions. 2 Definitions Analytical Methods Other Assumptions Sources... 21 Sources Table of Contents Page 3
214 Q3 214 Q4 214 215 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 216 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 217 217 Q3 217 Q4 217 218 218 4984 4947 5542 64 6474 62 6334 69 83 84 8167 99-218 UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication Welcome to the latest edition of UDI Pacific s State of the Market quarterly publication. The -218 State of the Market report provides up-to-date statistics and trends on the new home and re-sale housing markets as well as the amalgamation of relevant economic statistics that impact the housing market. The report also includes statistics on the newer purpose-built rental market in Metro Vancouver, and the UDI/Urban Analytics Housing Affordability Index which is derived from Urban Analytics New Home Source Live database as well as BC Housing s new home registry statistics. Population Growth & Housing Starts 12 Metro Vancouver Housing Starts (Before Demolition) and Population Change (15+) 1 8 6 Housing Starts 4 Population Change (15+) 2 214 Q3 214 Q4 214 215 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 216 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 217 217 Q3 217 Q4 217 218 218 The table above shows the trend of Metro Vancouver s housing starts and population change over the past four years. Please note, housing start data in this chart does not account for housing demolitions. The most recent housing starts total (5,542 in -218) is down 13 percent from last quarter but is up 2 percent from the six-year average. The only sector that experienced an increase in new home starts from the previous quarter was the single family market (up 15 percent). Metro Vancouver s net population change was up by 9,9 residents, which is up 19 percent from the same quarter last year and up 16 percent from the six-year average. Metro Vancouver Population Change (15+) per Housing Start 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1. 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.7.8 1.1 1.8.5 The previous chart shows Metro Vancouver s population growth to housing starts. The current ratio of 1.8 is up from the 1.1 recorded last quarter and is nearing the six-year average of 2.. While the current ratio is below the five year average, it should be noted that a majority of the new housing starts have been sold in a strong pre-sale market. For reference, of the 5,664 units released in projects that are pre-construction over 8 percent are sold and this total will rise by the time construction begins. Furthermore, it should be noted that the population tables do not factor in demand for housing that come from Temporary Residents in Metro Vancouver. Table of Contents Page 4
-218 Local Economic Factors Notable factors having an impact on Metro Vancouver s housing market are recently introduced taxation measures by the Provincial Government and stricter mortgage lending policies introduced by the Bank of Canada. The recently introduced, provincial School Tax on properties assessed at $3. million or higher ultimately adds an additional.2 and.4 percent tax on homes above the previously noted threshold and is aimed at curbing demand at the higher spectrum of the residential real estate market. The Bank of Canada has increased its five-year posted rate for the fourth consecutive quarter and is currently at 5.34 percent. Overall re-sales in Metro Vancouver this past quarter were down 25 percent compared to the same quarter last year which in part can be attributed to both taxation and mortgage policies. Note however that overall affordability levels in the market have remained relatively unchanged. New multi-family home sales totals in -218 were down nine percent and overall listings are currently up 6 percent from the same quarter last year. Interestingly, there are still a number of recent pre-sale project launches that have been seeking all-time high list prices for their respective locations despite the recent sales decline in the market. Anecdotal reporting from our primary research suggests that there has been more sensitivity for new multi-family product priced above the $1.3 million mark. New multi-family project sales representatives cite the lower levels of sales activity and increased competition in the single family sector of the market as rendering it more challenging for downsizers to confidently purchase into a pre-sale development knowing they will achieve their desired sale price when they sell their existing home. Global Economic Factors While the Government of Canada is attempting to pursue ongoing NAFTA negotiations with the United States, American negotiators have recently ceased operating in the traditional tri-lateral format by initially attempting to negotiate exclusively with Mexico prior to negotiating with Canada. In the meantime, the US government has also increased tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum and in retaliatory measures the Canadian Government has placed tariffs on the same metals from the US as well as an estimated 8 consumer products. The effect of this could be domestic inflation with potential for increased Bank of Canada interest rates as a result. Higher priced steel and aluminum will likely cause increased construction costs for new development, a cost that will ultimately be passed on to the purchasers in new developments. We hope that you enjoy the most recent edition of the report and find it to be informative, helpful and convenient. As always, we welcome any feedback or comments on the publication. Sincerely, Urban Analytics Inc. Michael Ferreira Jon Bennest Table of Contents Page 5
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Thousands -218 Population 1.1 Metro Vancouver Population 28 - Present 1.2 Metro Vancouver Population Growth Rate (%) 2,25 2,2 2,15 2,1 2,5 2, 1,95 1,9 1,85 1,8 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 1.%.75%.5%.25%.% -.25% 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration 1.4 British Columbia International Migration 9, 7, 5, 3, 1, -1, -3, 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 1.5 British Columbia Net Migration 1.6 British Columbia Growth Breakdown 25, BC's Population Growth Break Down 217 Q3 217 Q4 217 218 2, Births 11,125 11,723 1,827 1,59 15, 1, 5, In-Migrants Immigrants Total Net Increase Deaths Out-Migrants 22,76 14,272 9,35 12,862 1,163 8,77 8,952 12,19 43,364 34,72 29,84 35,561 8,993 8,847 9,637 1,273 17,42 13,729 8,451 12,66-5, 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Emigrants Total Net Decrease Net Increase/Decrease 2,833 3,887 3,357 3,167 28,868 26,463 21,445 25,56 14,496 8,239 7,639 1,55 Metro Vancouver s population continues to grow steadily and is now at 2,223,3 residents in -218: up by 9,9 from last quarter, a.45 percent growth rate. Net overall migration to BC in the most recent update (-218) remained relatively consistent year-over-year with 12,932 additional residents. This is an 8 percent increase from the previous quarter and a seven percent increase from the same quarter last year. International migration to BC increased significantly both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter up 42 and 92 percent respectively with a total of 12,136 net international migrants. Note however, that net Interprovincial migration for the most recent update (-218) is down 77 percent year-over-year with 796 net migrants, representing the lowest first quarter increase after returning from negative levels in 213. With the inclusion of net Non-Permanent Residents (not included in graph 1.6), BC population has increased by 66,719 over the 12 months ending June 3 th 218, with a large portion of that increase settling in the Metro Vancouver Area. Table of Contents Page 8
Billions Billions Thousands Economic Indicators -218 2.1 Bank of Canada 5 Year Posted Rate (%) 2.2 Consumer Price Index 8% 135 Canada Metro Vancouver 7% 13 125 6% 12 115 5% 11 15 4% 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 1 95 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 2.3 Metro Vancouver: Labour Totals 28 - Present 2.4 British Columbia Unemployment Rate 1,6 9% 1,4 1,2 1, 8% 7% 8 6% 6 4 2 5% 4% 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 3% 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 2.5 Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 28 - Present 2.6 Canada GDP: 28 - Present $24 $1,975 $22 $2 $18 $1,9 $1,825 $1,75 $1,675 $16 $14 $12 $1,6 $1,525 $1,45 $1,375 $1 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $1,3 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 The Bank of Canada raised the five-year posted rate to 5.34 percent this quarter up from 5.14 percent, which is a return to the same rate in Q3-213. This is the fourth consecutive rate raise since -217 which will further tighten restrictions for prospective home buyers trying to obtain a mortgage. Metro Vancouver s labour force decreased by 34,2 during -218 and is now at 1,463, workers: This total is the first quarterly decrease since -217 and represents a.9 percent decrease compared to -217. BC s unemployment rate reversed its downward trend and was at 4.3 percent in -218: up 3 basis points compared to last quarter but still down 8 basis points from the same quarter last year. $21.4 Billion worth of retail sales were recorded in Canada this past quarter: This is down one percent from last quarter but up six percent year-over-year. Canada s GDP rose for the seventh consecutive quarter and still sits at $1.87 Trillion: The total is up 2.6 percent compared to the same quarter last year and is up 11 percent compared to the same quarter five years ago. Table of Contents Page 9
Billions Thousands Billions Millions Economic Indicators -218 3.1 Budgetary Balance, Canada 3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 28 - Present $6 $4 $2 $ -$2 -$4 -$6 -$8 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $2, $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $1, $8 $6 $4 $2 $ 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars) 3.4 British Columbia Bankruptcies $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 2,9 2,4 1,9 1,4 9 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close) 3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded 26, 24, 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $2 $175 $15 $125 $1 $75 $5 $25 $ 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 The most recent update in -218 showed Canada s budget recording a net $34.7 Billion deficit, which is up 32 percent to last quarter but is just a one percent increase from the same quarter last year. Investment in new multi-family construction in BC reached the highest point for any first quarter, increasing seven percent from the same quarter last year. The price of crude oil continues to trend upward reaching $73 USD per barrel during -218. This marks a 59 percent increase from the same quarter last year. There were 1,64 bankruptcies recorded in BC this quarter. This total is down eight percent compared to the same quarter last year and is also the lowest quarterly total recorded in the past 13 years. After a decline last quarter, the DJIA rebounded in -218 up to 24,271 points; up 14 percent year-over-year and up 3 percent from the five-year average. The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at the 16,277 mark at the end of -218, seven percent higher than the same quarter last year. Table of Contents Page 1
-218 Housing Economic Indicators 4.1 BC Housing Single Family Registrations 4.2 BC Housing Multi-Family Registrations Vancouver Proper Inner Metro Outer Metro 7 6 5 4 3 2 213 214 215 216 217 218 Vancouver Proper Inner Metro Outer Metro 34 3 26 22 18 14 1 6 2 213 214 215 216 217 218 All new homes in the province must be registered with BC Housing. The registration data is collected by BC Housing in the public registry. The majority of registered new homes are enrolled with home warranty insurance which protects against construction defects. The registration of new homes must occur prior to the issuance of building permits and housing starts. The new home registrations measure residential construction activities at the beginning of a project before construction commences. A study has been conducted by the Bank of Canada in collaboration with BC Housing to assess whether new home registration data under the Homeowner Protection Act can be used as a leading indicator for economic activity in B.C. The research finds that quarterly increases in new registrations for single-detached homes have statistically significant predictive content for growth in real GDP over the next one to three quarters, and provide stronger signals compared to housing starts and building permits over this forecast horizon. The research report has been published under Staff Discussion Papers on the website of the Bank of Canada. http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/216/2/sdp216-3.pdf - Single includes the new single detached homes enrolled with home warranty insurance or with approved Owner Builder Authorizations. - Multi includes the new homes in multi-unit buildings (2 or more dwelling units) enrolled with home warranty insurance and does not include new homes in multi-unit rental buildings (purpose built rentals). - New in 218 data has been added for Squamish (Inner Metro) and Abbotsford (Outer Metro) Note: Some minor adjustments may be made to the figures over time as registrations are withdrawn or cancelled from home warranty insurance from time to time. Overall registrations in the Inner and Outer Metro regions were up 42 and 3 percent respectively compared to the same quarter last year while overall registrations in the City of Vancouver were down five percent compared to the same quarter last year. Single Family Home registrations in Metro Vancouver totaled 1,383 in -218; up eight percent compared to last quarter and up two percent year-over-year. Of the 1,383 registrations, 28 percent were in the City of Vancouver, 22 percent were in the Inner Metro region and 5 percent were in the Outer Metro region. Both the City of Vancouver and the Outer Metro region experienced a year-over-year increase in Single Family Home Registrations (six percent and 22 percent respective increases), while Single Family Home Registrations in Inner Metro decreased 33 percent compared to the same quarter last year. Multi-family home registrations in Metro Vancouver totaled 4,932 in -218: up 31 percent from the same quarter last year and up 23 percent from the five-year average. Of the 4,932 registrations, 27 percent were in the City of Vancouver, 44 percent were in the Inner Metro region and 36 percent were in the Outer Metro region. Multi-family new home registrations increased year-over-year for both the Inner and Outer Metro region (72 percent and 35 percent respective increases) however, multi-family home registrations for the City of Vancouver were down seven percent compared to the same quarter last year. Table of Contents Page 11
Index Starts Millions -218 Housing Economic Indicators 5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts 5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts 84 77 7 63 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 315 2925 27 2475 225 225 18 1575 135 1125 9 675 45 225 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts 5.4 Residential Building Permits Metro Vancouver $9 6 $8 $7 5 $6 4 3 $5 $4 $3 2 $2 1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $1 $ 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index 5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates 115 11 15 Metro Vancouver BC Vancouver Tri-Cities/Ridge Meadows Richmond/Delta North Shore Surrey/Langley/White Rock Burnaby/New Westminster 1 1.2% 95 9 85 8 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 1.%.8%.6%.4%.2%.% 5,542 new housing starts were recorded in -218 which is down 13 percent from the same quarter last year and also down 1 percent compared to the same quarter in 216. The largest contributor to overall starts in -218 was the condominium sector (3,881) which accounted for 7 percent of all new starts. Of the 3,881 condominium starts in -218, 3 percent were located in the City of Vancouver and 51 percent were located in the Inner Metro region. There were 1,177 single family homes starts in -218, 31 percent were located in the City of Vancouver and 41 percent were located in the Outer Metro region. Townhomes totaled 484 starts in -218; 26 percent were located in the Inner Metro region and 74 percent were located in the Outer Metro region. The housing price indexes for Metro Vancouver and BC remained similar to last quarter but are up five and four percent respectively over the past year. Overall vacancy rates throughout Metro Vancouver are reported at one percent for the most recent annual update (Fall 217). Table of Contents Page 12
-218 New Home Data: Condominiums 6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 6.3 Concrete Condominium Released & Unsold Inventory Levels 6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Inner Metro Outer Metro 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 A total of 119 new concrete condominium projects were actively selling across Metro Vancouver in -218, a 25 percent increase compared to the same quarter last year. The increase in actively selling projects has been relatively uniform across the City of Vancouver, Outer and Inner Metro regions. 1,246 new concrete condominiums were sold in -218, which is down by 49 percent compared to the same quarter last year and also down 6 percent compared to last quarter. Of the 1,246 new concrete condominium sales, 395 (32 percent) were located in the City of Vancouver, 718 (58 percent) were located in the Inner Metro region and 133 (11 percent) were located in the Outer Metro region. A total of 742 new concrete condominium sales in -218 (6 percent of overall new concrete condominium sales) occurred in either Burnaby, New Westminster or Vancouver West sub-markets. There were 1,997 released and unsold new concrete condominiums at the end of -218: up 77 percent compared to the same quarter last year and up 69 percent compared to the same quarter two years ago. Of the released and unsold inventory, only 52 units are move in ready of which 6 percent are in one building in New Westminster. 1: Released and unsold inventory includes new home product available for sale that is pre-construction, under construction, and completed. Standing Inventory refers unsold units that are complete and move-in ready. Table of Contents Page 13
-218 New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums 7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales Inner Metro Outer Metro 6 5 4 3 2 1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Inner Metro Outer Metro 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Released & Unsold Inventory Levels 7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Inner Metro Outer Metro 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 46 new wood frame condominium projects were actively selling across Metro Vancouver in -218. 8 percent of these projects are currently located in either the Inner or Outer Metro regions. The total number of actively selling wood frame condominium projects remains at extreme lows despite increasing from last quarter. The total number of actively selling projects are down by 45 percent compared with the five-year average for this product type. A total of 1,78 new wood frame condominium sales were recorded in -218. Of the 1,78 wood frame condominium sales, 24 (two percent) were located in the City of Vancouver, 457 (42 percent) were located in the Inner Metro region and 597 (55 percent) were located in the Outer Metro region. -218 sales were 15 percent higher than the five-year average, and were more in line with the longer term trend. There were 339 released and unsold new wood frame condominium units at the end of -218 which is the fourth lowest quarterly total recorded in eight years. Of the available inventory, 58 units (17 percent) were located in the City of Vancouver, 18 units (32 percent) were located in the Inner Metro region and 173 units (51 percent) were located in the Outer Metro region. Only 16 of the 339 released and unsold new wood frame condominiums in Metro Vancouver were move-in ready at the end of -218. Table of Contents Page 14
-218 New Home Data: Townhomes 8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing 8.2 Townhome Sales 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 12 15 9 75 6 45 3 15 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 8.3 Townhome Released & Unsold Inventory Levels 8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels 9 75 6 45 3 15 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Inner Metro Outer Metro 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 The total number of actively selling new townhome projects decreased to 84 in -218, which is slightly down from last quarter. This total is up six percent compared to the same quarter last year and up 4 percent compared to the same quarter two years ago. Of these projects, 49 percent were located in the Outer Metro region while 36 percent were located in the Inner Metro region and 15 percent were located in the City of Vancouver. A total of 546 new townhome sales were recorded in -218. This represents a 37 percent decrease from the previous quarter and a 52 percent decrease from the same quarter in 217. Note that the Outer Metro region represented 52 percent of overall new townhome sales in Metro Vancouver while the City of Vancouver only represented three percent of overall new townhome sales. A total of 597 new townhome units were released and unsold at the end of -218. This number is up six percent from last quarter and also up 2 percent compared to the same quarter last year. The relative amount of the released and unsold inventory is mostly proportionate to the volume of sales in each region: 55 percent of released inventory is located in the Outer Metro region, 35 percent is located in the Inner Metro region and nine percent is located in the City of Vancouver. Of the 565 released and unsold new townhomes in Metro Vancouver, 47 were move-in ready at the end of -218. Table of Contents Page 15
-218 UA Affordability Index: New Home Data 9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums Outer Metro Inner Metro Vancouver 73.6% 74.3% 76.4% 76.5% 77.1% 75.% 73.6% 73.7% 72.4% 73.1% 54.4% 55.4% 53.4% 51.5% 52.6% 5.7% 55.1% 38.6% 36.3% 31.6% 31.5% 29.7% 2.9% 44.1% 42.2% 34.4% 37.2% 12.9% 9.% 1.1% 9.5% 39.5% 34.7% 27.2% 29.5% 29.7% 31.% 18.% 9.% 4.7% 6.7% 6.9% 33.5% 16.4% 7.2% Q4 214 215 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 216 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 217 217 Q3 217 Q4 217 218 218 9.2 UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums Outer Metro Inner Metro Vancouver 72.5% 73.3% 71.7% 61.8% 62.3% 61.9% 44.4% 4.3% 38.2% 73.9% 73.4% 73.9% 6.% 59.5% 57.1% 39.9% 36.7% 3.6% 68.2% 66.9% 66.4% 67.4% 57.7% 54.5% 52.7% 56.7% 54.8% 49.1% 48.1% 47.7% 39.9% 42.1% 29.6% 29.3% 29.4% 33.2% 26.8% 26.4% 2.5% 42.% 26.2% 14.6% 41.4% 26.4% 15.% Q4 214 215 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 216 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 217 217 Q3 217 Q4 217 218 218 9.3 UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes Outer Metro Inner Metro Vancouver 67.7% 69.7% 68.5% 59.% 51.1% 5.6% 32.8% 34.7% 27.4% 67.9% 64.4% 64.7% 49.2% 47.9% 49.3% 32.2% 27.3% 22.4% 57.9% 53.7% 55.1% 46.4% 47.7% 36.8% 36.2% 36.6% 39.3% 32.6% 11.3% 9.% 8.4% 1.3% 4.2% 52.7% 53.2% 5.9% 52.8% 32.9% 28.3% 19.2% 2.6% 11.% 7.1% 8.2% 9.% Q4 214 215 215 Q3 215 Q4 215 216 216 Q3 216 Q4 216 217 217 Q3 217 Q4 217 218 218 Overall affordability for most sectors of the new home market have remained relatively stable through -218. Townhome affordability increased in all Metro Vancouver locations which can in part be attributed to a decrease in the median townhome price in the Vancouver Proper, Inner and Outer Metro regions. Most median prices have increased for concrete and wood frame product across all three regions. Concrete condominium affordability remained relatively unchanged with the following percentage of earning households able to afford the median priced new concrete condominium in their respective location in -218; 33.5 percent in Outer Metro, 16.4 percent in Inner Metro and 7.2 percent in Vancouver Proper. The following percentage of earning households could afford to purchase the median priced new wood frame condominium in their respective location in -218; 41.4 percent in Outer Metro, 26.4 percent in Inner Metro and 15 percent in Vancouver Proper. Sales in the wood frame condominium sector have performed well partially in part to its affordability relative to new townhomes and concrete condominiums. Vancouver remains the least affordable region with only seven percent of the income earning households being able to purchase the median priced concrete condo. Table of Contents Page 16
Thousands Thousands Thousands Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver -218 1.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 1.2 Apartment Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 28 29 21 211 212 Sales 213 214 Listings 215 216 217 218 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 1.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 1.4 Attached Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV) 2,5 Sales Listings $9 $8 2, $7 1,5 $6 1, $5 $4 5 $3 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $2 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 1.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 1.6 Single Detached Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 28 29 21 211 Sales 212 213 214 Listings 215 216 217 218 $1,7 $1,5 $1,3 $1,1 $9 $7 $5 $3 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 3,873 apartment re-sales, 1,259 townhome re-sales and 2,295 single family re-sales were recorded in -218. Apartment re-sales were down 38 percent, townhome re-sales were down 32 percent and single family re-sales were down 29 percent year-over-year. Benchmark prices for apartments and townhomes have increased while the single family benchmark price has remained unchanged. Average benchmark prices were up 26 percent for apartments, up 19 percent for townhomes and up 3 percent for single family homes when compared to the same quarter last year. Recent benchmark prices for apartment and townhome sectors established new all-time highs in -218. The Average Benchmark Price of all product types in Greater Vancouver in -218 are as follows: apartment - $72,3, townhome - $861,167, single family - $1,64, (single family price unchanged on average for the quarter). Table of Contents Page 17
Thousands Thousands Thousands -218 Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board 11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 11.2 Apartment Re-Sale Average Prices Sales Active Listings 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $43 $41 $39 $37 $35 $33 $31 $29 $27 $25 $23 $21 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 11.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 11.4 Attached Re-Sale Average Prices Sales Active Listings 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 $66 $61 $56 $51 $46 $41 $36 $31 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 11.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 11.6 Single Detached Re-Sale Average Prices Sales Active Listings 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 21 211 212 213 214 215 216-217 218 $1,2 $1,1 $1, $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 21 211 212 213 214 215 216-217 218 In -218, the relevant Fraser Valley municipalities recorded 1,386 apartment re-sales, 1,166 townhome re-sales and 2,167 single family re-sales. Apartment, townhome and single family re-sales were down three, 13 and 11 percent respectively compared to the same quarter last year. Apartment listings are up 169 percent, townhome listings are up 13 percent and single family listings are up 143 percent compared to the same quarter last year. Overall average prices for townhomes have achieved an all-time high in -218, while the average price for both apartments and single family homes have decreased slightly from the previous quarter. Average prices were up 23 percent for apartments, up 16 percent for townhomes and down two percent for single family homes compared to the same quarter last year. The average price of all product types in the Fraser Valley in -218 are as follows: Apartment - $416,664 townhome - $62,852, Single Family - $1,61,127. Table of Contents Page 18
New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments -218 12.1 Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver* 12.2 Rental Unit Turnover Rate by Region 7 C total WF total TH total Turnover Rate Occupancy Rate 6 Vancouver 2.16% 5 4 3 Outer Metro 1.45% 2 1 Inner Metro.74% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% 12.3 Rental Unit Availability Rate By Region 12.4 Currently Available Average Rent Per Square Foot Availability Rate Occupancy Rate Concrete PSF Woodframe PSF Townhome PSF Vancouver 13.84% Outer Metro 16.33% Inner Metro 29.68% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% $4. $3.5 $3. $2.5 $2. $1.5 $1. $.5 $- Inner Metro PSF Outer Metro PSF Vancouver PSF 12.5 Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Concrete Units Wood Frame Units Townhome Units Page generated with NHSLive Rental data. For more detailed rental information, contact info@urbananalytics.ca for subscription options. *The majority of the Rental Apartment data referred to herein as newer purpose-built rental relates to purpose built rental apartment buildings completed since 21. A total of 8,191 newer actively leasing or fully leased purpose-built rental units were recorded across Metro Vancouver at the end of -218. The overall turnover rate for fully leased rental projects across Metro Vancouver is currently 1.8 percent. The Inner Metro region has the highest rate of availability of recently launched purpose-built rental units at 29.7 percent in large part due to two projects in New Westminster with a significant amount of available inventory. Average rents for newer purpose-built wood frame rental apartment buildings were $2.73, $2.67 and $2.14 per square foot in Vancouver, Inner Metro and Outer Metro, respectively. A total of 17,639 purpose-built rental units are in the planning stages throughout Metro Vancouver, with 47 percent being in the City of Vancouver, 1: Sample size of 9,369 units over 1 newer rental apartment and townhome projects in Metro Vancouver. 2: Refer to methodology on page 19. Table of Contents Page 19
-218 Methodology & Definitions Affordability Index Definitions Inner Metro: Squamish, West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, South Delta, Coquitlam, Port Moody & Port Coquitlam. Outer Metro: Langley, North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Pitt Meadows, Maple Ridge and Abbotsford. Vancouver: Downtown Vancouver, Vancouver West and Vancouver East. Prices Prices for the new home market were collected from actively selling new multi-family projects in Metro Vancouver. Re-sale prices were collected from the Real Estate Boards of Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley (with median and benchmark prices used). Income The Index uses household income information from Statistics Canada data from the 216 Census Survey. Assumed Down Payments Wood frame and concrete condominiums: 2% Townhomes: 3% The reason for the difference is the assumption that townhome buyers are more likely to be move-up buyers with equity built up in their existing property. Analytical Methods Five year, fixed rate 3-year amortization mortgages were used, taking an average of the best rates at eight banks at the time of analysis and taking the greater of the average plus 2% or the five-year benchmark rate published by the Bank of Canada. Other Assumptions The affordability index assumes that a person can afford a maximum of 32 percent of their gross family income to go toward mortgage payments. Methodology & Definitions New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments Analytical Methods Chart 1: Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver: Sum of move-in ready units by product type. Move-in ready is defined as those projects that are Fully Leased, as well as those that are Active (actively leasing) with standing inventory. Chart 2: Turnover Rates by Region: Projects included are those that are fully leased only. Chart 3: Availability Rates by Region: Projects included are those that are actively leasing only. Chart 4: Currently Available Average Rent per Square Foot: A weighted average of rental rates of currently available units in fully leased projects and average rental rates achieved in projects that have been actively leasing for greater than three months. The average per region is based on average dollar per square foot prices of each sub-market. Chart 5: Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages: Total units of every project in the contemplated section of the Rental database, by product type. Table of Contents Page 2
-218 Sources Sources 1.1 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 1.2 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 1.3 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.4 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.5 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.6 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 2.1 - Bank of Canada 2.2 - BC Stats Consumer Price Index 2.3 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 2.4 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 2.5 - Statistics Canada Retail Trade by Province 2.6 - Statistics Canada Gross Domestic Product 3.1 - Stats Canada Revenue, Expenditure & Budget 3.2 - Statistics Canada Investment in New Housing 3.3 - Index Mundi (Monthly Spot Oil Prices) 3.4 - Industry Canada Insolvency Statistics 3.5 - Statistics Canada Stock Market Statistics 3.6 - Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada 4.1 BC Housing - New Single Family Registrations 4.2 BC Housing - New Multi-Family Registrations 5.1 - CMHC Housing Now Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.2 - CMHC Housing Now Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.3 - CMHC Housing Now Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.4 - Statistics Canada Building Permits 5.5 - Statistics Canada New Housing Price Indexes 5.6 - CMHC Rental Market Report 6.1 - UA New Home Source Database 6.2 - UA New Home Source Database 6.3 - UA New Home Source Database 6.4 - UA New Home Source Database 7.1 - UA New Home Source Database 7.2 - UA New Home Source Database 7.3 - UA New Home Source Database 7.4 - UA New Home Source Database 8.1 - UA New Home Source Database 8.2 - UA New Home Source Database 8.3 - UA New Home Source Database 8.4 - UA New Home Source Database 9.1 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 9.2 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 9.3 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 1.1 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.2 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.3 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.4 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.5 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.6 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 11.1 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.2 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.3 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.4 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.5 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.6 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 12.1 UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.2 UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.3 UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.4 UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.5 UA New Home Source Rental Database Table of Contents Page 21