Data recorded July 20, 2018 1
The Virginia REALTORS association publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media, and real estate-related industries with current data from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia REALTORS. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia REALTORS. The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. It should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 28 local REALTOR associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS (NVAR). Please take this into consideration when referencing regions. Central Eastern Hampton Roads Northern Southside Southwest Valley West Central Albemarle, Amelia, Buckingham, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Goochland, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, King & Queen, King William, Louisa, Madison, Nelson, New Kent, Orange, Powhatan, Prince George, Rappahannock, Sussex; Charlottesville, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg, Richmond Accomack, Essex, King George, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northampton, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, Surry, York; Chesapeake, Franklin, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren; Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park Brunswick, Charlotte, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Nottoway, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince Edward, Southampton; Danville, Emporia, Martinsville Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Floyd, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe; Bristol, Galax, Norton Alleghany, Augusta, Bath, Frederick, Highland, Page, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Shenandoah; Buena Vista, Covington, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Craig, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke; Lynchburg, Radford, Roanoke, Salem Data recorded July 20, 2018 2
June Market Summary Existing homes sales in Virginia fell by 4.2% in June as a tight inventory supply continues to constrain the market. June existing home sales fell from 14,186 existing-home sales in June 2017 to 13,596 in June 2018. Annualized existing-home sales, a measure of the preceding 12 months of activity, totaled 122,652 sales at the end of May. Statewide median sales price increased year over year 2.3%, rising to $306,945. This is the 28 th straight month that median sales price has risen year over year. The ask-to-sell ratio stayed at 100.0% in June, the third straight month at that level. Tight inventory and increasing demand continue to push prices upward. The median number of days on the market remained at 32 days in June, down from 36 days in June 2017. This is the 27 th straight month of year over year declines in median days on market. June 2018 existing home sales volume (the sum of all sales) decreased 3.1 percent over the same period in 2017, from $5.161 billion in June 2017 to $4.999 billion in June 2018. Annualized home sales volume, a measure each month of the total sales volume for the previous 12 months, totaled $42.188 billion for existing-home sales for the twelve months preceding June 30, 2018. This marks the first time in 24 months that annualized existing home sales volume has fallen. The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate for June decreased slightly to 4.55 percent. Despite rate increases over the past year, financing remains historically affordable and, coupled with Virginia s low 3.2% unemployment rate and high consumer confidence, continues to encourage market entry. Data recorded July 20, 2018 3
Existing Home Sales - Annual Rate 123,500 123,000 122,500 123,273 123,242 123,131 123,051 122,740 122,802 122,902 122,652 122,239 122,000 121,500 121,000 121,061 121,240 121,437 121,356 120,500 120,000 119,500 Year over year, existing home sales fell in May by 4.2% (from 14,186 in June 2017 to 13,596 in June 2018). This is the second straight month, and third month out of four, of year over year declines. Annualized home sales, a measure each month of the total sales for the previous 12 months, totaled 122,652 existing-home sales transactions for the twelve months preceding June 30, 2018. Existing Home Sales - Year over Year 16,000 14,000 12,673 13,320 14,186-4.2 % 13,596 12,000 10,593 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Jun-2014 Jun-2015 Jun-2016 Jun-2017 Jun-2018 Data recorded July 20, 2018 4
320,000 310,000 Existing Home Sales Median Price 2.3% 306,945 300,000 290,000 280,000 270,000 260,000 250,000 240,000 299,950 294,500 Median price rose in June rose by 2.3 percent, from $299,950 in 2017 to $306,945 in 2018. This marks the 28 th month in a row that Existing Home Sales Median Price has risen year over year. Median price also rose $12,445, or 4.2% from the prior month ($294,500 in May). Below, historical data indicates continued long-term price escalation. 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.4% Existing Home Sales Median Price - % Change Year over Year 5.7% 2.4% 1.4% 1.9% 2.6% 3.2% 2.7% 1.6% 4.9% 3.5% 2.6% 2.3% Data recorded July 20, 2018 5
Billions Billions June 2018 Existing Home Sales Volume - Annual Rate 42.5 42.0 41.72 41.79 41.89 41.98 42.07 42.26 42.35 42.19 41.5 41.42 41.0 40.80 40.99 41.05 40.5 40.51 40.0 39.5 Existing home sales volume (the total dollar value of all sales for a given period) totaled $5.00 billion for June 2018, an decrease of 3.1 percent from the preceding June ($5.16 billion). Annualized home sales volume, a measure each month of the total sales volume for the previous 12 months, totaled $42.190 billion for the twelve months preceding June 30, 2018. This is the first time in 24 months that annualized existing home sales volume has fallen. Existing Home Sales Volume - Year over Year 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5.16-3.1 % 4.70 5.00 4.34 3.67 Jun-2014 Jun-2015 Jun-2016 Jun-2017 Jun-2018 Data recorded July 20, 2018 6
60 50 40 30 35 36 Existing Home Sales Median Days on Market s 38 40 42 43 44 47-11.1 % 53 47 37 32 31 32 20 10 0 The chart above illustrates the median number of days on the market for each month. Shorter transaction time suggests strong buyer motivation. Relative to last year, June median days on market, the time from list to close, decreased by a notable 11.1 percent (from 36 to 32 days). Monthto-month, median days on the market slightly increased (1 days or 3.2 percent) as the Spring typically marks the low water mark for the year for the median days on the market. Existing Home Days on Market -Year over Year s 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5-44 40 36 32 28 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Data recorded July 20, 2018 7
100.2% 100.0% 99.8% 99.6% 99.4% 99.2% 99.0% 98.8% 98.6% 98.4% 98.2% Existing Home Sales Ask Sell Ratio 99.8% 100.0% Sellers in June sold their Virginia homes for 100.0% of the listing price, slightly higher than the national average. This is the third month in a row at 100%. The ask sell ratio (sales price / list price) shows how close to the seller s asking price that buyers are paying for their homes. It is a measure meant to show who has leverage in the typical transaction. The ask to sell ratio has been climbing slightly over the years as inventory constraints continue to drive prices up. 100.2% 100.0% 99.8% 99.6% 99.4% 99.2% 99.0% 98.8% 98.6% 98.4% 98.2% Existing Home Ask Sell Ratio - Year over Year 98.9% 99.0% 99.2% 99.8% 100.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Data recorded July 20, 2018 8
3.7% 3.7% 3.9% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2% June 2018 Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% Virginia unemployment continues to track well below the national average as June 2018 s unemployment rate stayed to 3.2%, compared with the national average of 3.9%. Low unemployment is correlated with bolstered consumer confidence and encouragement for buyers to enter the market. 4.75% Average 30 -Year Mortgage Interest Rate Source: FreddieMac 4.50% 4.25% 4.33% 4.44% 4.58% 4.57% 4.55% 4.00% 3.75% 4.05% 4.01% 3.90% 3.97% 3.88% 3.90% 3.92% 3.95% 4.03% 3.81% 3.50% Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate for June 2018 dropped slightly to 4.55 percent. Despite increases over the past year, rates remain enticing to buyers. Data recorded July 20, 2018 9
The Virginia REALTORS association is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 33,000 REALTORS engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. The Virginia REALTORS association serves as the advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia. NOTE: The term REALTOR is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS and subscribes to its strict code of ethics. All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Rick Lugg Virginia REALTORS rlugg@virginiarealtors.org 804-249-5703 The numbers reported here are preliminary and based on current entries into multiple listing services. Over time, data may be adjusted to reflect increased reporting. Information is sourced from multiple listing services across Virginia and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. Data recorded July 20, 2018 10