3 Q 2 0 1 8 M A NH AT TA N M A R K E T R E P O R T
INTRODUCTION M A N H A T T A N S A L E S R E P O R T Q 3 2 0 1 8 : SUMMER SLIDE
It s common knowledge that Manhattan property sales typically take a dip in the lazy days of summer, but Q3 of 2018 shows a sharp dive. In fact, our numbers reveal that this is the worst performing third quarter since the Fall of Lehman in 2008. The number of sales fell 11% from this time last year, and down 31% from record highs in Q3 2013. It s no surprise that prices have taken a hit as well: the median sale price fell 3% yearover-year. Properties are lingering longer on the market (137 days on average to be exact), and sellers have had to adjust pricing and expectations in order to make deals. There seems to be a disconnect in the headlines and in reality. The financial markets, after all, are performing quite well. Interest rates, while rising, are still near historic lows. All the indicators point to what should be a strong housing market, yet we are experiencing one of the most pronounced Q3 slowdowns in nearly 10 years. Uncertainty around the political climate, global trade, high prices, and increasing housing supply levels are contributing to the softening market. The question becomes: when will we rebound? While we cannot pretend to know the answer to such a layered question, we do anticipate that more buyers will feel empowered under these conditions to negotiate property prices with sellers and developers. The silver lining in all of this is, despite the strange economic dichotomy, for many this is exactly the time to buy. Properties that are priced well are moving, albeit not at the brisk pace we ve grown accustomed to in recent years. The shift down is actually a necessary move toward a more normalized market. ELIZABETH ANN STRIBLING-KIVLAN President ELIZABETH F. STRIBLING Chairman 3
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS 06 RECORDED SALES 08 PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT 14 CONTR ACTS SIGNED 16 TIME ON THE MARKET 22 TOTAL INVENTORY 24 MONTHS OF SUPPLY 30 SOURCES Stribling & Associates proprietary database, ACRIS (Automated City Register Information System) RESEARCHED & WRITTEN BY: GARRETT DERDERIAN Director of Data & Reporting
METHODOLOGY MANHATTAN GEOGRAPHY covered in this report is Manhattan. MONTHS OF SUPPLY is an estimated time it would take to sell all current active listings based on the trailing INVENTORY is calculated based on all properties actively listed during 12-months sales rate. the quarter at the time the report is prepared. CONTRACT SIGNED figures for the current quarter are based on publicly reported transactions at the time the report is prepared. The signed price reflects the latest available asking price. RECORDED SALES figures for the current quarter are based on known closings recorded at the time the report is prepared. MEDIAN PRICE is the middle price of a given dataset. AVERAGE PRICE is the sum of all prices divided by the total number of properties. TIME ON MARKET is calculated by how many properties entered contract during the quarter in the given period. DISCOUNT is the percentage difference between the initial list and recorded sale price. CURRENT QUARTER is reflective of the initial day of the quarter until the 20th day of the closing month of the quarter. These numbers will be updated in subsequent reports to reflect the dataset of the entire quarter. QUARTERS 1Q: January 1 March 31 2Q: April 1 June 30 3Q: July 1- September 30 4Q: October 1 December 31 WEST SIDE MIDTOWN WEST FINANCIAL DISTRICT/ BATTERY PARK CITY C E N T R A L P A R K EAST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN 5
MARKET HIGHLIGHTS 6
AS PRICES DROPPED AND INVENTORY SURGED, THE NUMBER OF CONTRACTS SIGNED HIT A POST-RECESSION LOW. AVER AGE SALES PRICE $1,978,726 42% OF $10 M + PROPERTIES TOOK 6.4% AVER AGE DISCOUNT MORE THAN 180 DAYS TO ENTER CONTR ACT MEDIAN PRICE $1,135,000 AVER AGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT $1,403 AVER AGE DAYS 137 ON THE MARKET 30% SHARE OF INVENTORY CLOSINGS OVER $ 3M OVER $ 3M SHARE OF 7
RECORDED SALES BY UNIT TYPE There were 2,332 recorded sales in 3Q18, an 11% decrease from this time last year, but a 7% increase from the second quarter of 2018. 1BR units captured 38% of all transactions, with an average PPSF of $1,242 and an average size of 786 square feet. 2BR units took 31%, with averages of $1,452/SF and 1,282 square feet. Studios, the most affordable unit type, averaged $1,162/SF and 505 square feet, with a 13% share. 3BR units captured 12% and averaged $1,635/SF and 2,023 square feet. 4+BR units, with only 5% of all closings, were the most expensive and largest. They averaged $2,149/SF, 31% higher than 3BR units. 4+BRs also averaged 4,124 square feet, making them 104% larger than the average 3BR unit. However, they had the greatest discounts, averaging 10%. Condo prices showed precipitous declines year-over-year, apart from 4+BR units. Those apartments saw significant price increases, as there were twice as many 4+BR sales at $20M and above compared to one year ago. Here, the average price improved 21% to $11,594,615, accompanied by an 18% median price increase, reaching $8,675,000. This was also the only bedroom bracket to record an average PPSF increase, up 12% to $2,875. Co-op units recorded minimal price shifts for units having two bedrooms or less. In an opposite effect from condos, the 4+BR co-ops recorded the steepest price declines. Their average price dropped 27% to $5,192,182, while their median price plunged 19% to $3,795,000. Notably, there was only one co-op sale at $20M or above, while three were recorded in 3Q17, explaining the declines. 3Q 2018 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS STUDIO 13% 1-BR 38% 2-BR 31% 3-BR 12% 4+ BR 5% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% 3Q 2018 AVERAGE PPSF STUDIO $1,162 1-BR $1,242 2-BR 3-BR $1,452 $1,635 4+ BR $2,149 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 3Q 2018 AVERAGE SIZE STUDIO 505 SF 1-BR 786 SF 2-BR 1,282 SF 3-BR 2,023 SF 4+ BR 4,124 SF 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 8
3Q 2018 TOTAL SALES BY UNIT TYPE 3Q 2018 CONDO RECORDED SALES STUDIO 314 13% 3-BR 281 12% 2-BR 731 31% 4+BR 118 5% STUDIO 1-BR 2-BR 3-BR 4+BR % UNITS 10% 37% 33% 5% AVERAGE DISCOUNT -6% -7% -8% -10% -10% MEDIAN PRICE $642,000 $985,000 $2,065,000 $3,325,000 $8,675,000 YOY -7% -13% -5% -17% 18% AVERAGE PRICE $690,863 $1,134,373 $2,261,089 $3,909,005 $11,594,615 YOY -5% -8% - -16% 21% AVERAGE PPSF $1,330 $1,423 $1,679 $1,817 $2,875 YOY -2% -8% -9% -13% 12% AVERAGE SF 534 795 1,298 2,112 3,645 YOY -1% 1% -5% -2% 2% 3Q 2018 CO-OP RECORDED SALES STUDIO 1-BR 2-BR 3-BR 4+BR % UNITS 16% 40% 31% 10% 3% AVERAGE DISCOUNT -4% -5% -6% -8% -7% MEDIAN PRICE $445,000 $720,000 $1,340,000 $2,300,000 $3,795,000 1-BR 888 38% YOY -1% -2% 1% -3% -19% AVERAGE PRICE $480,311 $788,145 $1,520,692 $2,551,264 $5,192,182 YOY 3% 1% 0.5% -10% -27% AVERAGE PPSF $997 $1,032 $1,112 $1,281 $1,338 YOY -1% 2% -3% -2% -17% AVERAGE SF 476 776 1,259 1,849 2,871 YOY 2% 2% -0.1% 3% 8% 9
RECORDED SALES BY PRICE POINT The $1-3M range was the most active bracket in the third quarter, with 39% of all closings. Units priced between $500K-1M closely followed with 36% of deals, while those sold under $500K comprised 11%. Closings in brackets $3M and above all recorded single digit shares of the market, with $20M+ properties taking 1%. Notably, there were 18 sales recorded for $20M or more, compared to 10 one year ago, largely concentrated in the condo market. Three of the sales were priced above $40M, compared to one last year. They had an average PPSF of $4,664 and measured an average of 7,453 square feet. However, $20M+ sales showed the greatest average discount, at 17%. Condos logged mild median and average price adjustments across each price bracket. The largest change was for the median price of sales between $3-5M, which dropped 5% to $3,660,137. Both ends of the price spectrum saw the greatest average PPSF changes. For sales below $500K, the average PPSF dropped 14% to $891. For $20M+ listings, the average PPSF fell 13% to $5,387. The remaining price brackets saw single-digit shifts. Co-op units priced at $5M or more saw more substantial average and median price changes. The greatest gains were for sales priced between $10-20M, where the average surged 21% to $15,825,000 and the median rose 27% to $15,400,000. This perplexing increase occurred because certain listings priced at $20M or above sold at discounts, which shifted them to the higher end of the next lower price tier. There was a single sale for $20,000,000, resulting in drastic median and average price declines for 3Q 2018 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS <500K 11% 500K-1M 1M-3M 36% 39% 3M-5M 8% 5M-10M 5% 10M-20M 20M+ 1% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 3Q 2018 AVERAGE PPSF <500K $912 500K-1M 1M-3M 3M-5M $1,073 $1,476 $1,840 5M-10M $2,387 10M-20M $2,849 20M+ $4,664 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 3Q 2018 AVERAGE SIZE <500K 513 SF 500K-1M 1M-3M 743 SF 1,257 SF 3M-5M 2,175 SF 5M-10M 3,058 SF 10M-20M 4,956 SF 20M+ 7,453 SF 0 1,600 3,200 4,800 6,400 8,000 10 the $20M+ bracket from one year ago.
HISTORICAL TRENDS IN RECORDED SALES 3Q 2018 CONDO RECORDED SALES 100% 90% 80% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 1% 0.3% 1% 1% 0.4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 29% 1% 1% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 8% <500K 500K-1M 1M-3M 3M-5M 5M-10M 10M-20M 20+M % UNITS 4% 28% 46% 11% 8% 2% 1% AVERAGE DISCOUNT -8% -6% -8% -10% -11% -7% -16% MEDIAN PRICE $420,000 $780,000 $1,705,568 $3,660,137 $6,225,000 $12,273,520 $27,250,000 YOY 1% -2% 0.3% -5% -4% -0.4% 3% AVERAGE PRICE $403,720 $772,057 $1,823,368 $3,750,797 $6,636,870 $12,610,089 $28,169,048 YOY 1% -2% 2% -3% -2% -2% -3% 31% 30% 32% 32% 32% 70% 35% 35% 39% 39% AVERAGE PPSF $891 $1,208 $1,597 $1,994 $2,540 $3,320 $5,387 YOY -14% -3% -3% -5% -8% -7% -13% AVERAGE SF 552 673 1,172 1,900 2,795 3,768 5,920 60% YOY 29% -0.4% 5% -0.4% 7% -2% 50% 3Q 2018 CO-OP RECORDED SALES 40% 30% 39% 38% 37% 36% 38% 36% 33% 36% 33% 36% <500K 500K-1M 1M-3M 3M-5M 5M-10M 10M-20M 20+M % UNITS 16% 43% 34% 4% 2% 0.3% 0.1% AVERAGE DISCOUNT -4% -4% -7% -8% -12% -10% -20% MEDIAN PRICE $411,000 $715,000 $1,568,750 $3,450,000 $6,800,000 $15,400,000 $20,000,000 YOY 1% -1% 1% -4% 10% 27% -21% 20% AVERAGE PRICE $400,400 $727,465 $1,701,968 $3,604,009 $6,789,100 $15,825,000 $20,000,000 YOY 1% 0% 2% -4% 2% 21% -35% 10% 24% 21% 23% 23% 21% 20% 19% AVERAGE PPSF $918 $963 $1,240 $1,607 $1,906 - - YOY 18% -1% -4% -3% -11% - - 13% 11% 11% AVERAGE SF 502 799 1,393 2,441 3,686 - - 0% 3Q09 3Q09 3Q10 3Q10 3Q11 3Q11 3Q12 3Q12 3Q13 3Q13 3Q14 3Q14 3Q15 3Q15 3Q16 3Q16 3Q17 3Q17 3Q18 3Q18 YOY -5% 3% 5% 3% 23% - - <500K 500K-1M 1M-3M 3M-5M 5M-10M 10M-20M 20M+ 11
RECORDED SALES SUBMARKET Downtown captured the greatest share of closings of any submarket, at 32%, with an average PPSF of $1,673 and an average size of 1,421 square feet. The average discount in that market was 6%. The Upper East Side followed, taking 20% of all deals, with averages of $1,288/SF and 1,309 square feet. There, the average discount was slightly higher, at 7%. FiDi/BPC recorded 3% of all sales, as did Midtown West. In FiDi/BPC, the average PPSF was $1,235 and the average size was 1,018 square feet. Despite the relatively small market share, FiDi/BPC recorded the steepest discounts of any area, averaging 9%. Units in Midtown West had an average PPSF of $1,331 in 827 square feet, making them the smallest properties of any market. They recorded a 7% discount. Condos recorded price declines across all metrics. The steepest declines were in FiDi/BPC, where the average price plunged 28% to $1,320,538, the median price dropped 25% to $950,000, accompanied by an average PPSF reduction of. Size was a factor; it was down 14%. Midtown East observed a similar pattern, with the average price falling 17% to $2,635,247 and median price dropping 23% to $1,147,500. Both markets saw average discounts of 10%. Downtown condos saw the only price increase of any metric, with their average up 1% to $3,643,594. Co-op units had a healthier quarter relative to condos. Upper Manhattan recorded the most substantial gains, with its average price up 7% to $695,629 and its median price increasing 12% to $592,000. This sector also saw an average PPSF rise of 19% to $752, and an average size increase of 7% to 1,015 square feet. 3Q 2018 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS MANHATTAN 9% EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST 3% DOWNTOWN FIDI/BPC 3% 16% 16% 20% 32% 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 3Q 2018 AVERAGE PPSF MANHATTAN $903 EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST DOWNTOWN FIDI/BPC 3Q 2018 AVERAGE SIZE MANHATTAN EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST DOWNTOWN FIDI/BPC $1,288 $1,410 $1,385 $1,331 $1,235 $1,673 $0 $400 $800 $1,200 $1,600 $2,000 827 SF 1,096 SF 1,018 SF 1,134 SF 1,309 SF 1,324 SF 1,421 SF 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 12
NUMBER OF RECORDED SALES MANHATTAN 205 UNITS: 9% MANHATTAN 3Q 2018 CONDO RECORDED SALES EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST DOWN- TOWN % UNITS 10% 14% 13% 16% 5% 36% 6% AVERAGE DISCOUNT FiDi/ BPC -4% -7% -8% -10% -8% -7% -10% MEDIAN PRICE $735,000 $1,671,028 $1,700,000 $1,147,500 $1,100,000 $2,441,064 $950,000 YOY -0.2% -5% -3% -23% -28% -1% -25% AVERAGE PRICE $878,341 $2,360,281 $2,310,530 $2,635,247 $1,329,569 $3,643,594 $1,320,538 YOY -9% -1% -4% -17% -17% 1% -28% AVERAGE PPSF $1,000 $1,518 $1,626 $1,726 $1,482 $1,951 $1,259 WEST SIDE 381 UNITS: 16% YOY -4% -7% -5% -7% -9% -9% - AVERAGE SF 845 1,286 1,333 1,216 895 1,538 1,018 YOY -9% -1% 5% -12% -7% -2% -14% EAST SIDE 476 UNITS: 20% MIDTOWN WEST 78 UNITS: 3% MIDTOWN EAST 370 UNITS: 16% DOWNTOWN 743 UNITS: 32% MANHATTAN 3Q 2018 CO-OP RECORDED SALES EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST DOWN- TOWN % UNITS 7% 26% 19% 16% 2% 28% 1% AVERAGE DISCOUNT FiDi/ BPC -3% -6% -4% -6% -6% -6% -3% MEDIAN PRICE $592,000 $995,000 $999,000 $735,000 $563,750 $900,000 $739,250 YOY 12% 9% 2% 2% -4% 0% -2% AVERAGE PRICE $695,629 $1,712,602 $1,460,588 $933,570 $631,883 $1,287,900 $856,179 YOY 7% -6% 2% -3% -8% -4% -8% AVERAGE PPSF $752 $1,090 $1,136 $938 $948 $1,243 $952 YOY 19% 1% -6% 4% 12% -5% -11% FIDI/BPC 79 UNITS: 3% AVERAGE SF 1,015 1,144 1,029 973 654 1,081 1,016 YOY 7% 2% -5% 2% -19% 10% 2% 13
14 PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
$1,700 PRICE TRENDS $1,135,000 $1,965,494 $1,978,726 $2,500,000 $1,600 $1,170,000 $2,250,000 $1,500 $2,000,000 $1,750,000 $1,400 $1,500,000 $1,300 $1,200 $1,245 Average Price Per Square Foot Since 1Q09 $1,250,000 $1,000,000 $1,100 $750,000 $1,000 $500,000 $900 $250,000 $800 $1,136 $1,018 $995 $1,007 $1,055 $1,033 $1,056 $1,081 $1,042 $1,041 $1,060 $1,071 $1,050 $977 $1,087 $1,131 $1,108 $1,144 $1,176 $1,241 $1,282 $1,279 $1,303 $1,359 $1,372 $1,380 $1,435 $1,515 $1,524 $1,511 $1,513 $1,531 $1,585 $1,566 $1,538 $1,498 $1,482 $1,479 $1,403 $0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Average PPSF Median Price Average Price 15
CONTR ACTS SIGNED BY UNIT TYPE There were 2,212 contracts signed in 3Q18, down 16% from one year ago. Contract activity slowed in September, as rising interest rates and uncertainty in the market decelerated demand. This was the least number of contracts recorded in a third quarter since 2008, when 1,771 were signed. The number of contracts reported was also 21% lower than the 10-year 3Q average of 2,891. In total, 31% of co-op units were signed in the first 59 days, as were 30% of condos. Notably, 22% of co-ops took more than 180 days to get signed, while 27% percent of condos took the same. 1BR units made up the largest share of all signings, with 38%, followed by 2BR units at 31%. Studios, totaling 11% of all deals, moved the fastest with 40% signed in 59 days. 4+BR units, representing 7% of all contracts, were the most expensive, with an average PPSF of $2,063, and the largest, averaging 3,816 square feet. Only 25% were signed in their first 59 days on the market, while 34% took more than 180 days. Condo 3BR units saw the greatest appreciation. Their median price increased 3% to $4,200,000, and their average grew by 5% to $4,798,993. 4+BR units presented mixed results, with their median price up 7% to $8,012,500, but their average price down 9% to $9,892,653. Co-op prices remained largely unchanged, apart from 4+BR units. There, the median price grew by 29% to $4,800,000, while the average surged 17% to $5,715,902. There were three 4+BR contracts signed for $20M or more, compared to zero in the third quarter of 2017, fueling the rise. 3 Q 2018 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS STUDIO 11% 1-BR 38% 2-BR 31% 3-BR 13% 4+ BR 7% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% 3 Q 2018 AVERAGE PPSF STUDIO $1,305 1-BR $1,392 2-BR 3-BR 4+ BR $1,664 $1,878 $2,063 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 3 Q 2018 AVERAGE SIZE STUDIO 530 SF 1-BR 792SF 2-BR 1,282 SF 3-BR 2,126 SF 4+ BR 3,816 SF 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 16
PERCENTAGE OF MARKET 4+BEDROOM 151 UNITS: 7% 3Q 2018 CONDO CONTRACTS SIGNED STUDIO 1-BR 2-BR 3-BR 4+BR % UNITS 9% 34% 35% 16% 6% 3 BEDROOM 298 UNITS: 13% MEDIAN PRICE $699,500 $1,197,000 $2,262,500 $4,200,000 $8,012,500 YOY -4% 0.2% 1% 3% 7% AVERAGE PRICE $874,224 $1,276,414 $2,566,847 $4,768,993 $9,892,653 YOY 9% -4% 4% 5% -9% AVERAGE PPSF $1,560 $1,629 $1,902 $2,122 $2,607 YOY 7% -2% 7% 3% -9% AVERAGE SF 564 808 1,314 2,153 3,477 YOY 3% 2% -0.2% 2% 2% 2 BEDROOM 679 UNITS: 31% 2,212 TOTAL CONTRACTS SIGNED 3Q 2018 CO-OP CONTRACTS SIGNED STUDIO 1-BR 2-BR 3-BR 4+BR % UNITS 14% 41% 29% 12% 4% MEDIAN PRICE $458,000 $697,000 $1,250,000 $2,395,000 $4,800,000 YOY -0.4% -0.3% 0% -4% 29% AVERAGE PRICE $461,206 $785,216 $1,389,075 $2,820,022 $5,715,902 1 BEDROOM 830 UNITS: 38% YOY -4% 1% -3% 4% 17% AVERAGE PPSF $972 $1,030 $1,088 $1,325 $1,518 YOY -3% 10% 3% 24% -0.1% STUDIO 254 UNITS: 11% AVERAGE SF 488 771 1,210 2,049 3,114 YOY -4% -2% -1% 13% 25% 17
CONTR ACTS SIGNED BY PRICE POINT Properties priced between $1-3M saw the most activity in the second quarter, capturing 39% of all deals. Units priced between $500K-1M followed closely, with 35% of all contracts. Units priced between $500K- 1M moved the fastest, with 36% signed in the first 59 days, and only 19% taking 180 days or longer. Units priced below $500K captured a 10% share, slightly more than those priced between $3-5M, with 9%. The $20M+ bracket comprised 0.5% of the market. These units had an average PPSF of $5,176 and average size of 6,269 square feet. This gap has shrunk considerably from recent quarters. Of those properties that entered contract priced $10M and above, 42% took more than 180 days to get signed, far exceeding all other brackets. 16% were signed in under 30 days. Condos priced between $5-10M saw the healthiest increases across all price metrics. Here, the median price improved 10% to $6,847,500, the average price rose 7% to $7,025,364, and the average PPSF increased 4% to $2,757. The increases are primarily a result of new development contracts, largely on the Upper West Side, priced in this range. Co-ops saw modest price changes across each price bracket. The strongest gains were in the $5-10M range, where the median price increased 7% to $6,750,000 and the average price ticked up 4% to $7,101,673. The biggest declines were in the $10-20M tranche, where the median price fell 19% to $13,000,000, and the average price tumbled to $12,993,750. There were only four deals in this bracket, none above $15M, compared to five one year ago, when three were above $15M. 3 Q 2018 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS <500K 10% 500K-1M 35% 1M-3M 39% 3M-5M 9% 5M-10M 6% 10M-20M 20M+ 1% 0.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 3 Q 2018 AVERAGE PPSF <500K $942 500K-1M 1M-3M $1,083 $1,572 3M-5M 5M-10M $2,102 $2,591 10M-20M $3,711 20M+ $5,176 $0 $1,200 $2,400 $3,600 $4,800 $6,000 3 Q 2018 AVERAGE SIZE <500K 585 SF 500K-1M 1M-3M 747 SF 1,240 SF 3M-5M 2,000 SF 5M-10M 2,941 SF 10M-20M 4,809 SF 20M+ 6,269 SF 0 1,500 3,000 4,500 6,000 7,500 18
3Q 2018 CONDO CONTRACTS SIGNED 2,212 TOTAL UNITS <500K 500K-1M 1M-3M 3M-5M 5M-10M 10M-20M 20+M % UNITS 1% 24% 49% 14% 9% 2% 1% MEDIAN PRICE $387,000 $795,000 $1,680,000 $3,912,000 $6,847,500 $12,950,000 $29,200,000 YOY -10% -2% -1% 4% 10% -5% -1% AVERAGE PRICE $365,663 $783,642 $1,814,002 $3,928,757 $7,025,364 $13,838,478 $33,040,000 YOY -14% -2% 1% 2% 7% -1% -9% 5M-10M 127 UNITS 6% 3M-5M 204 UNITS 9% 10M-20M 33 UNITS 1% <500K 217 UNITS 10% AVERAGE PPSF $909 $1,234 $1,694 $2,253 $2,757 $4,095 $6,087 YOY -6% -1% -1% 5% 4% 8% -5% AVERAGE SF 496 670 1,109 1,816 2,664 3,910 5,649 YOY 7% 0.2% 4% -2% 4% 3% 2% 1M-3M 3Q 2018 CONTRACTS SIGNED BY PRICE POINT 500K-1M 765 UNITS 35% 3Q 2018 CO-OP CONTRACTS SIGNED <500K 500K-1M 1M-3M 3M-5M 5M-10M 10M-20M 20+M % UNITS 18% 44% 30% 5% 2% 0.3% 0.3% 855 UNITS 39% 20M+ 11 UNITS 0.5% MEDIAN PRICE $410,000 $699,000 $1,547,000 $3,800,000 $6,750,000 $13,000,000 $22,500,000 YOY 3% 0% -0.2% 1% 7% -19% - AVERAGE PRICE $408,208 $721,121 $1,698,643 $3,929,815 $7,101,673 $12,993,750 $22,333,333 17% OF CONTRACTS SIGNED WERE ABOVE $3M YOY 2% 0.1% -2% 3% 4% - - AVERAGE PPSF $846 $942 $1,256 $1,602 $2,198 - - YOY -1% 1% 1% 8% 11% - - AVERAGE SF 557 820 1,488 2,480 3,385 - - YOY 3% 2% 4% -10% -5% - - 19
CONTR ACTS SIGNED 20 SUBMARKET The Downtown submarket captured the greatest share of contracts, with 30%. This was also the most expensive market, with an average PPSF of $1,808. 30% of these units went under contract within 59 days. The Upper East Side, with 20% of all contracts, recorded an average PPSF of $1,340, with 29% signed in the first 59 days. The FiDi/BPC market captured 3% of all contracts, with an average PPSF of $1,575 and an average size of 1,033 square feet. This was the slowest moving market. Only 18% of contracts were signed in 59 days, well below the overall 3Q18 market average of 30%. Notably, 31% of deals took more than 180 days, more than any other submarket. Upper West Side condos saw the greatest price improvements. There, the median price jumped 28% to $2,425,000, and the average price grew an equally impressive 26% to $3,299,999. The average PPSF was up 14% to $2,060, while the average size increased 8%. Conversely, FiDi/BPC condos saw the greatest drops. There, the median price plunged 14% to $1,182,500, and the average price lost 7%, falling to $1,660,932. Size was a factor, dropping 10% to 1,031 square feet. Conversely, every co-op submarket saw some price appreciation. The greatest increases were on the Upper East Side, where the median price jumped 18% to $1,025,000, and the average price surged 21% to $1,894,409. This was the only median price of any submarket to exceed $1M. Upper Manhattan also saw significant gains, with its median price jumping 13% to $595,000, and its average up 20% to $727,298. Still, it remained the most affordable co-op market. 3Q 2018 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS MANHATTAN 9% EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST 3% DOWNTOWN FIDI/BPC 3% 19% 20% 30% 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 3Q 2018 AVERAGE PPSF MANHATTAN $873 EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST DOWNTOWN FIDI/BPC 3Q 2018 AVERAGE SIZE MANHATTAN EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST DOWNTOWN FIDI/BPC $1,340 $1,787 $1,605 $1,597 $1,808 $1,575 $0 $400 $800 $1,200 $1,600 $2,000 932 SF 1,033 SF 1,335 SF 1,319 SF 1,229 SF 1,422 SF 1,557 SF 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2,000
NUMBER OF UNITS SIGNED MANHATTAN 3Q 2018 CONDO CONTRACTS SIGNED EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST DOWN- TOWN FiDi/ BPC MANHATTAN 210 UNITS: 9% % UNITS 7% 12% 20% 5% 34% 7% MEDIAN PRICE $850,000 $1,855,000 $2,425,000 $1,440,000 $1,187,500 $2,250,000 $1,182,500 YOY 0.1% -1% 28% 1% -9% 2% -14% AVERAGE PRICE $931,848 $2,258,763 $3,299,999 $3,172,724 $1,507,389 $3,329,626 $1,660,932 YOY -5% -10% 26% 25% -4% -1% -7% AVERAGE PPSF $1,002 $1,577 $2,060 $1,970 $1,707 $2,051 $1,598 YOY -0.4% -8% 14% 10% -1% -2% 7% WEST SIDE 428 UNITS: 19% AVERAGE SF 969 1,387 1,468 1,336 871 1,522 1,031 YOY 2% 6% 8% 13% -4% 7% -10% EAST SIDE 442 UNITS: 20% MIDTOWN WEST 67 UNITS: 3% MIDTOWN EAST 334 UNITS: DOWNTOWN 654 UNITS: 30% MANHATTAN 3Q 2018 CO-OP CONTRACTS SIGNED EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST DOWN- TOWN % UNITS 11% 27% 19% 2% 25% 1% FiDi/ BPC MEDIAN PRICE $595,000 $1,025,000 $959,000 $695,000 $530,000 $845,000 $745,000 YOY 13% 18% -3% 2% 13% 6% 1% AVERAGE PRICE $727,298 $1,894,409 $1,417,028 $940,120 $706,632 $1,309,671 $861,455 YOY 20% 21% 2% -0.5% 22% -2% -2% AVERAGE PPSF $745 $1,140 $1,191 $954 $1,037 $1,214 $1,093 YOY 34% 8% 2% 5% -1% 2% 9% FIDI/BPC 77 UNITS: 3% AVERAGE SF 1,252 1,238 1,080 933 1,048 1,172 1,069 YOY 12% 10% 14% -1% -8% 10% -8% 21
TIME ON THE MARKET 22
SUBMARKET PRICE BRACKET BEDROOMS TYPE OVERALL 12% CONDO CO-OP STUDIO 1-BR 2-BR 3-BR 4+ BR <500K 500K-1M 1M-3M 3M-5M 5M-10M 10M+ MANHATTAN EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST DOWNTOWN 11% 17% 11% 12% 11% 16% 16% 13% 10% 10% 22% 16% 19% 9% 14% 10% 18% 13% FIDI/BPC 5% 12% 18% 14% 21% 14% 12% 16% 16% 17% 16% 24% 27% 22% 23% 16% 14% 14% 17% 19% 19% 14% 18% 14% 23% 24% 13% 11% 18% 19% 9% 11% 11% 18% 20% 23% 17% 17% 14% 13% 16% 13% 18% 17% 12% 10% 11% 21% 7% 7% 19% 17% 16% 11% 8% 8% 21% 18% 10% 19% 11% 16% 18% 17% 19% 18% 14% 14% 19% 18% 17% 13% 14% 14% 19% 18% 42% 20% 18% 28% 34% 19% 19% 27% 34% 28% 17% 26% 16% 27% 13% 29% 31% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0-29 DAYS 30-59 DAYS 60-89 DAYS 90-119 DAYS 120-179 DAYS 180+ DAYS 23
TOTAL INVENTORY BY UNIT TYPE There were 7,487 units listed on the market at the end of 3Q18, a 7% increase from last quarter, and a 20% increase year-over-year. This was the highest 3Q inventory level since the recession, and a 27% increase from the 3Q post-recession low of 5,875 units in 3Q14. 1BR units captured the largest market share, with 31% of all listings. These units had an average PPSF of $1,499 and an average size of 840 square feet. 2BR units closely followed, with a 29% share and averages of $1,836/SF and 1,399 square feet. Studios recorded the smallest share, at 10%, and were the most affordable with an average PPSF of $1,376 and an average size of 545 square feet. 4+BR units captured a slightly larger share, 13%, and were the most expensive and largest. These units averaged $2,491/SF and 4,352 square feet. Condo inventory prices were lower for all bedroom types, apart from studios, which saw a 3% increase in average PPSF to $1,595. However, their average price fell 2% to $853,490 while their median price dropped 6% to $739,000. All other bedroom types saw mild to moderate declines. The biggest decreases were in the 4+BR sector, which saw its median price decline 5% to $8,957,500, its average price drop 10% to $12,162,186, and its average PPSF slide 4% to $2,975. Co-op prices were also down for larger unit types in the second quarter. The 3BR median price dropped 9%, the most of any bedroom type, to $2,695,000, while the 4+BR median price was down 5% to $5,347,500. 3Q 2018 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS STUDIO 10% 1-BR 2-BR 31% 29% 3-BR 17% 4+ BR 13% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 40% 3Q 2018 AVERAGE PPSF STUDIO $1,376 1-BR $1,499 2-BR $1,836 3-BR $2,210 4+ BR $2,491 $0 $600 $1,200 $1,800 $2,400 $3,000 3Q 2018 AVERAGE SIZE STUDIO 545 SF 1-BR 840 SF 2-BR 1,399 SF 3-BR 2,222 SF 4+ BR 4,352 SF 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 24
4+BR 13% STUDIO 10% 3Q 2018 CONDO INVENTORY STUDIO 1-BR 2-BR 3-BR 4+BR % UNITS 8% 29% 32% 19% 12% MEDIAN PRICE $739,000 $1,250,000 $2,495,000 $4,750,000 $8,957,500 YOY -6% -4% 0% 0% -5% 3-BR 17% 3Q 2018 TOTAL INVENTORY 1-BR 31% AVERAGE PRICE $853,490 $1,448,381 $2,878,790 $5,651,592 $12,162,186 YOY -2% -2% -0.1% -6% -10% AVERAGE PPSF $1,595 $1,695 $2,007 $2,409 $2,975 YOY 3% -3% -0.4% -3% -4% 2-BR 29% AVERAGE SF 556 859 1,418 2,260 3,869 YOY -1% 3% 3% -1% -2% 3Q 2018 CO-OP INVENTORY 3-BR 12% 4+BR 8% STUDIO 13% STUDIO 1-BR 2-BR 3-BR 4+BR % UNITS 14% 34% 29% 16% 7% MEDIAN PRICE $489,000 $749,000 $1,499,000 $2,695,000 $5,347,500 2-BR 30% 3Q 2018 NEWLY LISTED INVENTORY 1-BR 37% YOY 3% 1% -0.1% -9% -5% AVERAGE PRICE $542,114 $860,471 $1,924,391 $3,573,140 $8,182,127 YOY 4% 1% 4% -5% -2% AVERAGE PPSF $1,038 $1,080 $1,324 $1,589 $1,737 YOY 3% 5% 10% 7% -7% AVERAGE SF 520 800 1,348 2,077 3,457 YOY 1% 0.2% 3% 0.2% 1% 25
TOTAL INVENTORY BY PRICE POINT Overall, 38% of active inventory was priced between $1-3M, mirroring the third quarter of 2017. The $500K-1M bracket followed with 25%, with the $3-5M sector taking 13%. Notably, the $500K-1M bracket saw its market share increase from one year ago, while all brackets over $5M lost share. The percentage of properties priced under $500K shrunk slightly, although the total number of units available increased from one year ago. Overall, properties priced under $500K offered the lowest average PPSF at $852, but were also the smallest, averaging 631 square feet. Units priced above $20M had an average PPSF of $4,919 and an average size of 6,857 square feet, making them 49% more expensive and 45% larger than units priced between $10-20M. However, the PPSF gap has tightened, down from a difference of 51% one year ago. All condo inventory saw mild price adjustments year-over-year, with no price increases exceeding 1%. The largest declines were for listings priced $20M and above: they saw a median price decline of 9% to $26,950,000, an average price drop of 8% to $30,930,595, and an average PPSF slide of 4% to $5,649. Notably, these declines came amid an increase in size, which was up 3% to 5,752 square feet. Co-ops also experienced declines across all price brackets, apart from those priced under $500K. There, the median price rose 4% to $415,000 and the average increased 2% to $406,340. Like condos, co-ops priced $20M and above recorded substantial declines. Their median price dropped 7% to $25,000,000 and their average price dropped 2% to $29,338,182. These drops, too, were accompanied by a size increase, up 5% to 6,317 square feet. 3Q 2018 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS <500K 7% 500K-1M 25% 1M-3M 38% 3M-5M 13% 5M-10M 10% 10M-20M 20M+ 4% 2% 0% 9% 18% 27% 36% 45% 3Q 2018 AVERAGE PPSF 500K $852 500K-1M 1M-3M 3M-5M 5M-10M $1,150 $1,628 $2,083 $2,572 10M-20M $3,299 20M+ $4,919 $0 $1,200 $2,400 $3,600 $4,800 $6,000 3Q 2018 AVERAGE SIZE <500K 631 SF 500K-1M 1M-3M 731 SF 1,221 SF 3M-5M 2,040 SF 5M-10M 2,925 SF 10M-20M 4,729 SF 20M+ 6,857 SF 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 26
HISTORICAL INVENTORY 3Q 2018 CONDO INVENTORY 100% 1% 2% 6% 1% 2% 5% 1% 2% 4% 1% 3% 5% 2% 4% 3% 5% 3% 6% 2% 5% 2% 5% 2% 4% <500K 500K-1M 1M-3M 3M-5M 5M-10M 10M-20M 20+M % UNITS 1% 17% 44% 17% 14% 5% 2% MEDIAN PRICE $382,500 $800,000 $1,795,000 $3,805,000 $6,500,000 $12,907,500 $26,950,000 9% 7% 7% 8% 8% 10% 12% 12% 11% 10% YOY 0% -3% 1% 0.1% -3% -0.5% -9% AVERAGE PRICE $374,448 $802,780 $1,873,294 $3,910,265 $6,890,660 $13,711,385 $30,930,595 80% 35% 31% 31% 31% 8% 31% 10% 12% 14% 13% 13% YOY -2% 0.1% 0.5% 1% -1% -0.5% -8% AVERAGE PPSF $897 $1,301 $1,736 $2,203 $2,721 $3,670 $5,649 YOY -4% 0% -2% -2% -1% -1% -4% AVERAGE SF 580 658 1,121 1,867 2,677 3,995 5,752 YOY 5% 3% 4% 3% 0.2% 0.4% 3% 60% 32% 35% 37% 38% 38% 3Q 2018 CO-OP INVENTORY 40% 35% 33% 32% <500K 500K-1M 1M-3M 3M-5M 5M-10M 10M-20M 20+M % UNITS 14% 37% 33% 9% 5% 2% 1% 33% 29% MEDIAN PRICE $415,000 $725,000 $1,695,000 $3,750,000 $6,250,000 $13,500,000 $25,000,000 25% YOY 4% 0% 0% -4% -4% -5% -7% 22% AVERAGE PRICE $406,340 $733,622 $1,799,972 $3,862,164 $6,674,942 $14,113,375 $29,338,182 20% 22% 22% 25% YOY 2% -0.3% -1% -3% -3% -1% -2% AVERAGE PPSF $850 $987 $1,316 $1,704 $2,172 $3,454 $4,043 0% 3Q09 20% 3Q10 21% 3Q11 20% 3Q12 19% 3Q13 3Q14 11% 3Q15 7% 3Q16 8% 3Q17 7% 3Q18 YOY -1% 2% -3% 1% 7% -1% -10% AVERAGE SF 588 791 1,424 2,402 3,324 4,372 6,317 YOY 3% 0% 4% -3% -8% 4% 5% <500K 500K-1M 1M-3M 3M-5M 5M-10M 10M-20M 20M+ 27
TOTAL INVENTORY SUBMARKET The Downtown submarket continued to contain the most inventory, capturing 30% of all active listings. The Upper East side followed with 20%, while Midtown East took 17%. Downtown had the highest average PPSF at $2,082, followed closely by the Upper West Side at $2,020/SF. The most affordable option was Upper Manhattan, where properties were asking an average of $1,010/SF. The largest properties were located Downtown, where the average size was 1,989 square feet. Next came the Upper East Side at 1,949 square feet, while the Upper West Side averaged 1,768 square feet. The smallest units, averaging 1,193 square feet, were in the Financial District/Battery Park City market. Midtown West had the next smallest, averaging 1,291 square feet. Condo inventory saw yearly price declines in most markets, although some showed positive signs of growth. Upper Manhattan saw its median price grow by 8%, along with a 4% average price rise and a 6% average PPSF increase. Midtown East also saw increases, spurred by high-priced listings along Billionaires Row. There, the median price increased 9% while the average price moved up 4%. The average size was also up by 9%, contributing to the rise. Co-op inventory prices declined considerably across many markets. The biggest losses were concentrated Downtown, where the median price dropped 10% and the average price fell. Units there also saw the greatest reduction in size, down 7%, magnifying the fall. On the Upper East Side, a market known for co-ops, the median price dropped 4%, but the average price increased 6%, due to several high-priced outlier listings. 3Q 2018 PERCENTAGE OF UNITS MANHATTAN 8% EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST 4% DOWNTOWN FIDI/BPC 5% 17% 20% 30% 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 3Q 2018 AVERAGE PPSF MANHATTAN $1,010 EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST DOWNTOWN FIDI/BPC 3Q 2018 AVERAGE SIZE MANHATTAN EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST DOWNTOWN FIDI/BPC $1,741 $1,647 $2,020 $1,892 $1,784 $2,082 $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 1,291 SF 1,193 SF 1,546 SF 1,562 SF 1,768 SF 1,949 SF 1,989 SF 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 28
NUMBER OF UNITS ON MARKET MANHATTAN 3Q 2018 CONDO INVENTORY EAST SIDE WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST DOWN- TOWN FiDi/ BPC MANHATTAN 613 UNITS: 8% % UNITS 6% 12% 14% 17% 6% 34% 10% MEDIAN PRICE $969,000 $2,337,500 $2,745,000 $2,097,000 $1,727,500 $3,099,500 $1,395,000 YOY 8% -13% 7% 9% -7% -6% -7% AVERAGE PRICE $1,374,565 $3,946,982 $4,020,310 $4,465,691 $3,014,717 $4,857,206 $2,110,342 YOY 4% -8% -10% 4% -3% -7% -13% AVERAGE PPSF $1,178 $1,997 $2,272 $2,269 $1,919 $2,258 $1,664 YOY 6% -3% 3% 1% -6% -5% -2% WEST SIDE 1,136 UNITS: AVERAGE SF 1,236 1,715 1,663 1,592 1,286 1,971 1,178 YOY 25% -4% -4% 9% 1% 0.3% -1% EAST SIDE 1,514 UNITS: 20% MIDTOWN WEST 306 UNITS: 4% MIDTOWN EAST 1,251 UNITS: 17% DOWNTOWN 2,256 UNITS: 30% MANHATTAN EAST SIDE 3Q 2018 CO-OP INVENTORY WEST SIDE MIDTOWN EAST MIDTOWN WEST DOWN- TOWN % UNITS 9% 29% 17% 17% 2% 25% 1% FiDi/ BPC MEDIAN PRICE $585,000 $1,495,000 $1,395,000 $879,000 $595,000 $990,000 $1,035,000 YOY -6% -4% 6% -2% 3% -10% 6% AVERAGE PRICE $794,058 $3,055,730 $2,233,474 $1,467,997 $904,416 $1,845,522 $1,351,429 YOY -8% 6% -10% -6% -1% - 22% AVERAGE PPSF $758 $1,352 $1,473 $1,088 $1,067 $1,430 $1,175 YOY -1% 3% 9% 1% 13% -4% 8% FIDI/BPC 411 UNITS: 5% AVERAGE SF 898 1,490 1,311 1,277 996 1,419 1,432 YOY -2% 2% 5% -2% -1% -7% 10% 29
MONTHS OF SUPPLY 30
3 Q 2 018 3 Q 2 017 7,487 943 INVENTORY CONTR ACTS SIGNED PER MONTH 7.9 MONTHS OF SUPPLY 1,048 6,215 CONR ACTS SIGNED PER MONTH INVENTORY 5.9 MONTHS OF SUPPLY 31
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