North Dakota Communities Acutely Impacted by Oil and Gas Development: Housing Demand Analysis
New Town Stanley, ND
Divide Burke Williams Mountrail McKenzie Dunn Billings Stark
Bakken/Three Forks Population Forecast Based on Total Wells The three scenarios in the studies are based on an additional 14,000 (pessimistic), 21,000 (expected) or 28,000 (optimistic) pattern wells in the footprint at 2030 above the 7,000 wells to be drilled to secure leaseholds The reports focus on the expected forecast Permanent population includes permanent drilling related and production related primary, secondary, and induced workers then converted to households
Approximately 6,250 transient workers are expected before the end of drilling
New housing units needed to meet demand About 8,900 additional housing units will be needed across the footprint for the projected 2030 population 8,428 new single family units 1,759 multi family units 1,209 fewer mobile homes The mix of housing tenure and type will fluctuate as the play progresses but should normalize
Williston Population and Housing Units 25,000 23,588 20,000 19,601 21,747 20,908 15,000 10,000 5,000 16,223 7,388 9,075 10,150 11,070 9,729 Population Housing Units 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 The number of housing units is based on an estimated household size of 2.19 in 2010, 2.16 in 2015, 2.14 in 2020, 2.13 in 2025 and 2.15 in 2030
Housing development affordability Conventional costs are affordable for those at or above median Those below median struggle Those below median but who don t qualify for rental assistance are under extreme pressure Essential service and Main Street workers pay is well below oilfield workers
Stanley Income Levels Under Pressure $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $55,000 $44,000 $58,380 $46,704 $61,968 $49,574.40 $65,776 $52,620.80 $69,819 $55,855.20 Indexed Poverty Level Indexed Median $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $23,993 $19,194.40 $11,925 $13,696 $14,538 $15,431 $16,379 $17,386 Low Income (80% of Median) $0 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 An annual income of $54,117.20 would be needed to afford rent of a multi family unit developed using conventional financing with a 15 year payback, based on the model of new construction included in the study reports
Six Communities at Certain Income Levels 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 6,517 50.00% 5,755 6,206 43.57% 45.00% 42.22% 40.76% 5,507 39.27% 40.00% 4,844 37.72% 35.00% 3,845 4,022 4,074 29.92% 30.00% 28.21% 3,327 26.41% 3,303 24.55% 25.00% 22.62% 20.00% 15.00% 1,197 1,346 1,367 1,342 10.77% 9.88% 1,051 8.98% 10.00% 8.09% 7.20% 5.00% Households Below Poverty Level Households Below $30,000 Households Below $45,000 Percent Below Poverty Level Percent Below $30,000 Percent Below $45,000-2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0.00%
Median age is expected to drop Little to modest need for additional market rate housing for seniors School age populations are expected to grow significantly New Town 40 percent Parshall 37 percent Tioga 75 percent Stanley 80 percent Watford City 56 percent Williston 50 percent
Survey of Developers and Builders North Dakota Housing Study Purpose Identify risks, obstacles and challenges Seek input and ideas Determine how to address challenges 8 developers surveyed
Survey of Developers and Builders North Dakota Housing Study Commonly mentioned risk factors Downturn in oil activity Price reduction of oil EPA regulations that would curtail activity Some factor to stop or slow oil exploration or production growth High cost of land Infrastructure costs Labor cost Land availability Fear of overbuilding Long term sustainability of rent
Survey of Developers and Builders North Dakota Housing Study Obstacles Lack of housing for own workforce Lack of infrastructure Lack of workforce Appraisal gap Lack of available land
Survey of Developers and Builders North Dakota Housing Study Possible solutions Cities need to be proactive in dealing with trunk infrastructure Property tax reduction for lowincome housing projects
For the full reports, please visit www.ndhfa.org