FLORIDA S ECONOMIC AND HOUSING MARKET FORECASTS
TODAY S MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITY Moderators: John Covert, Regional Director, Metrostudy Jeff Handlin, Principal, Oread Capital & Development Speakers: Denise Hogenes, Western Division Vice President, CCMC David Pelletz, South East Regional President, Standard Pacific Aaron Smith, Vice President, Brand Strategy, Roni Hicks
FLORIDA JOBS Year-Over-Year Change in Jobs by Industry Florida State 2014 March 2015 March 2014 March to % of % of 2015 March Industry # of Jobs Nonfarm # of Jobs Nonfarm Number % Total Nonfarm 7,530,200 100.0% 7,796,100 100.0% +265,900 3.5% Manufacturing 313,400 4.2% 319,200 4.1% +5,800 1.9% Construction and Mining 370,800 4.9% 397,600 5.1% +26,800 7.2% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 1,548,200 20.6% 1,603,400 20.6% +55,200 3.6% Information 133,500 1.8% 134,100 1.7% +600 0.4% Financial Activities 507,400 6.7% 520,700 6.7% +13,300 2.6% Professional and Business Services 1,126,500 15.0% 1,172,500 15.0% +46,000 4.1% Educational and Health Services 1,108,100 14.7% 1,156,900 14.8% +48,800 4.4% Leisure and Hospitality 1,060,700 14.1% 1,112,800 14.3% +52,100 4.9% Other Services 313,600 4.2% 325,900 4.2% +12,300 3.9% Government 1,048,000 13.9% 1,053,000 13.5% +5,000 0.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Real Estate Economics www.realestateeconomics.com Total Employment by Super Sector March 2015 Government Other Services Leisure and Hospitality Educational and Health Services Professional and Business Services Financial Activities Information Trade, Transport, and Utilities Construction and Mining Manufacturing 325,900 134,100 397,600 319,200 520,700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Real Estate Economics 1,053,000 1,112,800 1,156,900 1,172,500 1,603,400 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 MSA 12-Month Employment Change by Super Sector March 2015 Twelve Month Change Government Other Services Leisure and Hospitality Educational and Health Services Professional and Business Services Financial Activities Information Trade, Transport, and Utilities Construction and Mining Manufacturing 5,000 600 5,800 12,300 13,300 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Real Estate Economics 26,800 48,800 46,000 52,100 55,200 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
6,131,031 6,264,293 6,361,956 6,459,862 6,567,662 6,684,892 6,801,822 6,922,859 7,046,166 7,182,612 7,336,903 7,491,443 7,658,713 7,839,745 8,046,780 8,290,576 8,559,761 8,763,441 8,873,243 8,936,154 8,977,405 9,014,244 9,055,435 9,116,209 9,199,703 9,283,887 9,376,086 9,481,057 9,596,187 9,720,181 9,852,029 133,262 97,664 97,905 107,800 117,230 116,930 121,037 123,307 136,446 154,291 154,540 167,270 181,032 207,035 243,796 269,185 203,680 109,803 62,911 41,251 36,839 41,191 60,774 83,494 84,184 92,199 104,971 115,130 123,993 131,848 FLORIDA HOUSING TOTAL HOUSING SUPPLY MAY 2015 12-MONTH CHANGE IN TOTAL HOUSING SUPPLY MAY 2015 12,000,000 10,000,000 300,000 250,000 8,000,000 200,000 6,000,000 150,000 4,000,000 100,000 2,000,000 50,000 0 2020prj 2019prj 2018prj 2017prj 2016prj 2015est 2014p 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 Source: Census Bureau; Real Estate Economics 0 2020prj 2019prj 2018prj 2017prj 2016prj 2015est 2014p 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 Source: Census Bureau; Real Estate Economics
Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 prj Jan-17 prj Jan-18 prj Jan-19 prj Jan-20 prj Jan-21 prj Units Demand/Supplied FLORIDA MODELED FORECAST HOUSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND 11,000,000 HOUSING DEMAND AND SUPPLY PATTERNS 10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 Total Housing Supply Total Housing Demand * Over/Under supply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship betw een jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau; National Assoc. of Realtors; Real Estate Economics
FLORIDA MODELED FORECAST HOUSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND HOUSING (OVER)/UNDER SUPPLY PATTERNS Jan-90 UNDER BUILT OVER BUILT Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 - (200,000) (400,000) (600,000) (800,000) (1,000,000) * Over/Under supply measures based on current jobs-to-housing relationship relative to long-term relationship betw een jobs and housing. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau; National Assoc. of Realtors; Real Estate Economics www.realestateeconomics.com
Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 prj Jan-17 prj Jan-18 prj Jan-19 prj Jan-20 prj Jan-21 prj Median Housing Value FLORIDA MODELED FORECAST HOUSING AFFORDABILITY & PRICE APPRECIATION HOUSING VALUATION PATTERNS $275,000 $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 $75,000 $50,000 Historical/Forecast Home Price Income Supported Home Price Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau; National Assoc. of Realtors; Real Estate Economics www.realestateeconomics.com
Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21-18.5% -20.7% -5.5% -5.2% -4.2% 3.5% 2.5% 4.7% 2.8% 3.2% 4.6% 4.1% 5.1% 4.4% 5.4% 10.2% 11.1% 12.2% 19.4% 26.4% 3.3% 7.9% 7.5% 6.1% 5.3% 3.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 15.8% FLORIDA MODELED FORECAST HOUSING AFFORDABILITY & PRICE APPRECIATION HOUSING (OVER)/UNDER VALUATION PATTERNS OVER VALUED UNDER VALUED $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 ($20,000) ($40,000) ($60,000) ($80,000) ($100,000) 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% ANNUAL CHANGES IN HOME PRICES 2020prj 2019prj 2018prj 2017prj 2016prj 2015est 2014p 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 Source: National Association of Realtors; RealtyTrac; various county recorders offices; Real Estate Economics ($120,000) * Over/Under valuation based on value of housing (inclusive of mortgage rates) relative to long-term relationship betw een housing value & household incomes. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Census Bureau; National Assoc. of Realtors; Real Estate Economics www.realestateeconomics.com
FLORIDA MARKET UPDATE Mark Boud Real Estate Economics Anthony Crocco Regional Director Central Florida David Cobb Regional Director South Florida Tony Polito Regional Director Tampa/Sarasota
DIRECTORS ROUNDTABLE
FLORIDA MARKET UPDATE - Major appeal of your market - Biggest challenge facing your market - Biggest opportunity in your market - How foreclosures are affecting your market - Changing Consumer Segments
FLORIDA MARKET UPDATE 30% 25% 20% National Potential Demand Distribution vs. Actual New Home by Consumer Group since 2012 - Large decline in Entry Level, Simple Life and Family Life Buyers looming 15% 10% - Features and Location and Elite buyers will grow over the next five years 5% - All segments of Active Adult buyers will explode 0% Entry Level Feature & Location Simple Life Family Life Elite AA Entry Level AA Feature & Location AA Elite 5 Year Demand Distribution Dist. of Actual New Home Closings Since 2012