State of the Nation s Housing 2011: A Preview Christopher Herbert Remodeling Futures Conference April 5, 2011 www.jchs.harvard.edu
No Signs of a Recovery Yet % Change % Change Description: 2008 2009 2010 2008-9 2009-10 New SF Home Sales (000s) 485 375 322-22.7-14.1 Existing SF Home Sales (Millions) 4.35 4.57 4.31 5.0-5.7 Housing Starts, Total (000s) 906 554 587-38.8 5.9 Housing Completions, Total (000s) 1,120 794 652-29.1-18.0 Median Sales Price of New SF Homes, ($000s) 235.1 220.3 222.6-6.6 2.7 Median Sales Price of Existing SF Homes, ($000s) 199.1 174.9 173.1-12.5-1.0 Owners' equity in household real estate, ($Bil) 7.1 6.9 6.3-3.4-6.5 Owners' total mortgage debt ($Bil) 10.6 10.5 10.1-1.5-2.6 Residential Investment ($Bil) 478.5 357.9 340.4-25.5-3.3 Owner Residential Improvements ($Bil) 121.7 113.9 115.2-6.7 2.8 Note: All dollar values adjusted for inflation by the CPI-U for All Items. Sources: US Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
But After Three Years of Record Low Levels of New Construction the Last 10 Years Don t Look So Overbuilt 17.5 Completions & Placements (Millions) 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2001-2010 Median 10-Year Rate Lowest 10-Year (1988-97) Note: Data go back to 1974. Source: JCHS calculations of US Census Bureau data
Falloff in Demand the Bigger Concern, Particularly Homeowner Demand 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0 Change in Households (000s) Homeownership Rate (Percent) 2002-4 2004-6 2006-8 2008-10 Owners [Left Axis] Renters [Left Axis] End Period Homeownership Rate [Right Axis] 69.5 69.0 68.5 68.0 67.5 67.0 66.5 66.0 65.5 Source: US Census, Housing Vacancy Rate Survey
High Foreclosure Rates Are an Important Factor in Shrinking Homeowner Growth 6 Foreclosures Completed 2008-10 (As a Percent of Households) 12 Number or Percent 5 10 4 8 3 6 2 4 1 2 0 Greater than 3 Percentage Points 2-3 Percentage Points Less than 2 Percentage Points Magnitude of Peak to Trough Drop in State Homeownership Rate 0 Foreclosures Completed 2008-2010 (As % of Households) Peak to 2010 Drop in Homeownership Rate Source: First American CoreLogic; US Census, Housing Vacancy Rate Survey
Delinquencies May Finally Be Ebbing, But Foreclosure Pipeline Remains Near Record Levels 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Share of Mortgages in Service (Percent) 60-89 Days 90+ Days In Foreclosure Year Average 2000:4 to 2005:4 2009:4 2010:4 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America
Vacancy Rates Are Finally Coming Down, But By One Measure Shadow Inventory Remains High 1,200 Excess Vacant Units (000s) 1,000 800 600 400 200 0-200 For rent For sale only Held off market 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Note: Excess vacancies of for-sale units and units held off the market are estimated against levels under constant 1999-2001 rates; those for rental units are measured against levels under 2003-7 rates. Held off market / other units comprises occasional use, URE, and all other units. Source: JCHS Tabulations of US Census Housing Vacancy Survey data
Foreign-Born Household Growth Stalled During the Recession for the First Time in Decades 1,200 Growth in Foreign-Born Households (000s) 1,000 800 600 400 200 - (200) 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: JCHS Tabulations of Current Population Survey.
The Recession Has Also Lowered Rate at Which Young Adults are Forming Households 0 Change in Household Headship Rate, 2004-10 -2-4 -6-8 -10-12 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 Age of Householder Percent Percentage Point Source: JCHS Tabulations of Census Population Estimates and CPS data
Employment Growth Key to Reviving Demand, But Improvements Have Been Modest 10 Percent Above/Below Pre-Crisis Employment Peak (Percent) 5 North Dakota 0-5 -10-15 Georgia Florida Arizona Nevada California Michigan D.C. Hawaii Texas Vermont Alaska -20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Percent Rebound in Employment from Trough Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, data through February 2011
Few States Displayed Indicators of Housing Market Recovery in 2010 30 Number of States 25 20 15 10 5 0 Increasing Annual Permits Lower Vacancy Rate Increase in Home Sales Employment Growth Over 1% Higher Home Prices Note: FHFA Prices are Q4 to Q4 Purchase-Only; Vacancy rates are homeowner rates Q4 to Q4 percentage point change; Nonfarm employment is Q4 to Q4 change; Permits are annual percent change. Sources: JCHS tabulations of data from the US Census Bureau; National Association of Realtors ; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Housing Finance Agency
And Fewer Still Had Multiple Positive Indicators Note: FHFA Prices are Q4 to Q4 Purchase-Only; Vacancy rates are homeowner rates Q4 to Q4 percentage point change; Nonfarm employment is Q4 to Q4 change; Permits are annual percent change. Sources: JCHS tabulations of data from the US Census Bureau; National Association of Realtors ; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Housing Finance Agency
The Rental Market Shows More Signs of Recovery 2007:4 2008:4 2009:4 2010:4 Rental Vacancy Rate (%) 9.6 10.1 10.7 9.4 MPF Research Apartment Vacancy Rate (%) na 7.8 8.2 6.5 Consumer Price Index for Rent (% change) 4.0 3.6 0.9 0.6 MPF Research Rent Index (% change) na -0.3-4.1 2.3 Moody s Apartment Property Price Index (% change) -2.9-13.6-20.4 11.8 Multifamily For-Rent Starts (Units) 60,000 43,000 16,000 21,000 Multifamily For-Rent Completions (Units) 42,000 55,000 51,000 24,000 Notes: MPF Research Rent Index is for a sample of large investment-grade apartment properties. Moody s Apartment Property Price Index is based on sales of apartment properties worth at least $5 million. Median asking rent is for all vacant units. Sources: US Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey; US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index; Moody s Economy.com; US Census Bureau, New Residential Construction; MPF Research.
Rental Vacancy Rates May Be Best Indicator That Market is Turning the Corner Rental Vacancy Rate (Percent) 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.0 9.5 9.0 2006:1 2006:2 2006:3 2006:4 2007:1 2007:2 2007:3 2007:4 2008:1 2008:2 2008:3 2008:4 2009:1 2009:2 2009:3 2009:4 2010:1 2010:2 2010:3 2010:4 Source: US Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey. Overall Single-Family 10 or More Units
A Number of Markets Showing Signs of Growth in Apartment Rents Change in Average Rent 2009:Q4-2010:Q4 Source: MPF Research.
The Longer Term Outlook
Household Growth Should Return to Pre-Recession Levels Immigration Key Wildcard 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Average Annual Household Growth (Millions) 1.15 1.37 0.7 1.18 1.38 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2009 2010-2020 2010-2020 Low: Assumes Half of Census Immigration Projections High: Assumes Census Immigration Projections Notes: JCHS projections using 2008 US Census Bureau Population projections. Sources: US Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Survey; JCHS Working Paper W10-9.
Underlying New Home Demand Even Under Low Immigration Assumptions Should Top 16 Million 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 New Housing Units 2010-2020 (Millions) 16.4 18.7 3.3 3.3 1.6 1.4 13.8 11.8 Low Immigration High Immigration Projected Household Growth (000s) Vacant Unit Demand Net Removals Source: JCHS Working Paper W10-9. Low immigration is half Census Bureau baseline immigration assumption. High immigration is Census Bureau baseline immigration assumption.
Household Growth by Age Will Reflect the Influence of Baby Boom and Echo Boom Generations 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2 Change in Households 2010-20 (Millions) 2010 Homeownership Rate (Percent) 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+ 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Age of Householder Projected Change in Households by Age Group [Left Axis] 2010 CPS Homeownership Rate by Age [Right Axis] Source: JCHS Tabulations of Census Population Estimates and CPS data
Homeowner Affordability Should Favor Renewed Demand Once Economic Growth Takes Hold 5.00 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75 2.50 Ratio of Median SF Home Price to Median Household Income: 1968-2010 Year Median Single Family Home Price to Median Household Income Average Annual Price to Income Level, 1968-2010 Source: JCHS tabulations of National Association of Realtors and Moody s Economy.com data