Project RED Real Estate Dynamics An analysis of real estate demand characteristics in Cyprus 1
1.0 Leaf Research Leaf Research is a leading real estate consultancy firm, providing high quality real estate market research, valuation, feasibility studies, financial modelling and strategic consultancy. We provide consultancy services to individuals and a wide range of corporate clients, including developers, investors, and financial institutions. Leaf Research specialises in the alternative sector of the property market. We carry out projects in the areas of tourism & leisure, health & wellness, education industry, renewable energy projects and residential and commercial developments. We were the first company in Cyprus to be Regulated by RICS and to register under the RICS Valuer Registration Scheme. A multifaceted service offering, having data gathering and analysis at its core. 2
2.0 Project RED Project RED (Real Estate Dynamics) is an analysis of all real estate transactions lodged at Land Registry between 2006 and 2011. These transactions comprise of properties where ownership has been transferred to the name of the buyer, as well as sale and purchase agreements where the contract has been deposited against a given property. Leaf Research has reviewed each transaction, sorting it by type, geography and price. No such study has previously been conducted, as the Land Registry does not produce data by property type or by geographical location. Leaf Research has analysed the data using statistical models and mapping the various transactions. A similar analysis is possible for other districts or even for very specific areas up to a neighbourhood level (sheet/plan). Analysis of this kind is of paramount importance to real estate investors, financiers and policy makers as it shows the change nature of demand and thus helps formulate more accurate real estate strategies. Project RED provides accurate analysis of the changing patterns of demand. 3
3.0 Transaction volume across Cyprus Sale contracts (2000-2011) Sale contracts per district (2006-2011) 2,500 450 400 2,000 350 Sales contracts (per month) 1,500 1,000 500-00 01 02 Monthly sales 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Monthly sales (three month average) Source: Land Registry Monthly sales 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 09 M ar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 11 Mar-11 M ay-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Nicosia Limassol Larnaca Famagusta Paphos Transaction volume in Larnaca is circa 150 200 properties per month 4
4.0 Transaction volume in Larnaca district Project RED Larnaca is an analysis of 23,394 transactions between 2006 & 2011. 8,000 7,000 6,000 Total transaction volume 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Transaction volume by type 1,000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Residential Houses and Flats As a percentage of total transaction volume 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 48.6% 53.9% 62.0% 63.0% 60.6% 54.7% Land Plots and Fields 45.1% 41.0% 28.7% 24.6% 32.5% 27.9% Commercial Offices, Shops and Warehouses 1.9% 1.2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 8.6% Other 4.5% 3.9% 7.7% 10.8% 5.2% 8.8% 5
5.0 Transaction volume by type and geography 120 100 80 Base 100, 2007 60 40 20 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Flat (City centre) Flat (Out of city centre) House (City centre) House (Out of city centre) Apartments in outside the city centre have faired the worst in terms of liquidity. 6
6.0 Median price by type and geography 110 100 Base 100, 2008 90 80 70 60 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Flat (City centre) House (City centre) Flat (Out of city centre) House (Out of city centre) Transaction volume started decreasing from 2007, but prices kept increasing. Median prices of city centre properties were increasing until 2010. 7
7.0 Summary of findings The reduction in transaction volume is greater for land (plots and fields) than all other types of property. The worst performing are fields outside the city centre. There is a gradual shift in the geography of where people buy, from properties outside the city centre to properties in city centre. Median prices have fallen for all property types, with those of fields having faired the worst. The decline in median price of residential properties is not as great as the reduction in other types of property. The reduction is less for houses than apartments, with prices of city centre houses falling the least. Despite the reductions in prices, excluding farmland, the median transaction prices for all property types remain higher than 2006 levels. Project RED is a testament to the value that sound analytics can bring to any decision making process. 8
8.0 Leadership & Contact Lead Consultant - Pavlos Loizou Pavlos specialises in property market dynamics, cash flow modelling and strategic positioning. Having worked in London as a surveyor for CB Richard Ellis and as fund analyst for AXA Real Estate Investment Managers, he moved to Bucharest, Romania, in 2007 where he set up a boutique real estate consultancy firm. Pavlos is a Visiting Fellow at the University of Reading, the University of Cyprus and Frederick University, where he lectures on international real estate development. He is an executive board member of RICS Cyprus, and in 2010 led the team that set up the RICS Cyprus Property Price & Rental index. Contact details Pavlos Loizou MRICS Lead Consultant Leaf Research M +357 99.450329 pavlos.loizou@leafresearch.com www.leafresearch.com He is a graduate of the University of Reading (BSc in Land Management), the University of Cambridge (MPhil in Real Estate Finance) and the ACCA (DipFM in Financial Management). Leaf Research provides impartial and reliable advise. 9