bae urban economics NORTH TAHOE REGIONAL WORKFORCE HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT Tahoe Truckee Community Foundation (TTCF) & Community Collaborative of Tahoe Truckee (CCTT) January 5, 2015
MULTI-PHASED APPROACH Market Assessment Review background materials Assess local housing market conditions Evaluate future housing supply Local Employer and Employee Survey Employee survey to document characteristics and housing needs Employer survey to document workforce needs and characteristics Public Workshops and Focus Groups Informational workshops to discuss housing needs with general public Employee focus groups to further explore housing needs Estimate Workforce Housing Demand Number of employee households, accounting for seasonality Year-round workforce by income level Number of units needed to meet demand Opportunities and Recommendations to Improve Workforce housing Availability
STUDY AREA DEFINITION Graniteville Washington Kingvale Soda Springs Dollar Point Tahoe City Tahoe Vista Carnelian Bay Kings Beach Tahoma
STUDY AREA DEFINITION (CONTINUED) Graniteville Washington Kingvale/ Soda Springs Dollar Point Carnelian Bay/ Tahoe Vista/ Kings Beach Tahoe City Tahoma Auburn
PRELIMINARY DATA FINDINGS
TOTAL POPULATION (CENSUS 2000 & 2010-2014 ACS) 500,000 400,000 35.2% (2.5% per Year) 340,432 460,124 300,000 200,000 100,000 0-6.8% (-0.6% per Year) 32,450 30,251 North Tahoe Study Area North Tahoe Counties Census 2000
ANNUAL POPULATION CHANGE (CENSUS 2000 TO 2010-2014 ACS) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 n.a. * -2.9% n.a. * -1.5% n.a. * n.a. * 0.4% -1.9% n.a. * 1.3% * Data unavailable from Census 2000
INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT (EDD, 2000 & 2014) 31.6% 26.8% 6.2% 8.7% 12.6% 14.2% Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade Construction Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services All Other Industries* * Includes 15 industry sectors that each account for less than 5% of total
EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (EDD, 2000 & 2014) 60.0% 57.2% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 24.4% 7.1% 16.4% 25.2% 32.0% 0.0% * Includes 15 industry sectors that account for less than 5% each
January February March April May June July August September October November December Jobs in Study Area Jobs in Comparison Counties SEASONALITY OF EMPLOYMENT (EDD, 2000 & 2014) 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 180,000 170,000 160,000 150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 100,000 North Tahoe Study Area North Tahoe Counties
SEASONALITY BY INDUSTRY (EDD, 2015) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Construction Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Retail Trade Educational Services Accommodation and Food Services
COMMUTE FLOWS (CENSUS, ONTHEMAP, 2015) Employed in Region Living Within Region 6,554, 41% 9,271, 59% 6,554, 53% 5,723, 47% Live outside Region/In- Work Outside Region/Out-
COMMUTE FLOWS (CENSUS, ONTHEMAP, 2015) 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 In-Commuters Out-Commuters
HOUSING BY YEAR BUILT (2010-2014 ACS) 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 28.0% 18.2% 25.3% 17.7% 17.7% 19.0% 15.9% 14.1% 10.4% 4.7% 6.6% 4.1% 2.6% 4.6% 7.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.4% Built Built Built Built Built Built Built Built Built 1939 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 or to to to to to to to or Earlier 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 Later North Tahoe Study Area North Tahoe Counties
UNITS IN STRUCTURE (2010-2014 ACS) 1.6% 4.9% 8.9% North Tahoe Study Area 1.3% 3.0% 0.2% 1.6% 78.5% Detached Single Family Attached Single Family 2 to 4 Units 5 to 19 Units 20 to 49 Units 50 Units or More Mobile Homes Boats, RV's, Vans, Other
OCCUPANCY STATUS (2010-2014 ACS) North Tahoe Study Area (2010-2014) +9.1% 35.5% 64.5% North Tahoe Counties (2010-2014) +1.8% 15.9% 84.1% Occupied Housing Units Vacant Housing Units Occupied Housing Units Vacant Housing Units
VACANCY STATUS (2010-2014 ACS) North Tahoe Study Area 0.7% 0.0% (2010-2014) 1.3% 1.4% 0.9% 1.5% 0.0% North Tahoe Counties (2010-2014) 1.5% 1.3% 0.6% For rent 60.2% For sale only +7.7% +0.6% For rent 11.0% For sale only Rented or sold, not occupied For seasonal or occasional use For migrant workers Rented or sold, not occupied For seasonal or occasional use For migrant workers * Held vacant for any reason other than those listed above.
North Tahoe Carnelian Bay Dollar Point CDP Floriston CDP Kings Beach CDP Kingvale CDP Soda Springs Sunnyside- Tahoe Vista CDP Tahoma CDP Town of Truckee North Tahoe MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME (ADJUSTED TO 2014) $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 $76,067 $72,083 $80,889 $73,896 $83,696 $77,772 $67,079 $67,556 $69,330 $72,159 $68,892 $56,607 $69,838 $63,295 $53,068 $50,499 $39,639 $50,568 $28,917 2000 Census 2010-2014 ACS
HUD INCOME LIMITS (FOR PLACER COUNTY) Income Level Extremely Low (30% MFI) Very Low (50% MFI) Low (80% MFI) Moderate (120% FMI) One Two Three Four Five $15,050 $17,200 $19,350 $21,450 $23,200 $25,050 $28,600 $32,200 $35,750 $38,650 $40,050 $45,800 $51,500 $57,200 $61,800 $60,120 $68,640 $77,280 $85,800 $92,760
HUD INCOME LIMITS (FOR NEVADA COUNTY) Income Level Extremely Low (30% MFI) Very Low (50% MFI) Low (80% MFI) Moderate (120% FMI) One Two Three Four Five $16,100 $18,400 $20,700 $23,000 $24,850 $26,850 $30,700 $34,550 $38,350 $41,450 $42,950 $49,050 $55,200 $61,300 $66,250 $64,440 $73,680 $82,920 $92,040 $99,480
AFFORDABLE SALE PRICE (FOR PLACER COUNTY) Income Level Extremely Low (30% MFI) Very Low (50% MFI) Low (80% MFI) Moderate (120% FMI) Three Four Five $73,442 $81,333 $88,009 $122,151 $135,656 $146,581 $186,337 $216,988 $234,438 $293,162 $325,482 $351,885
AFFORDABLE SALE PRICE (FOR NEVADA COUNTY) Income Level Extremely Low (30% MFI) Very Low (50% MFI) Low (80% MFI) Moderate (120% FMI) Three Four Five $78,601 $87,251 $94,231 $131,103 $145,519 $157,203 $209,401 $232,618 $251,282 $314,557 $349,154 $377,378
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 MEDIAN SINGLE-FAMILY PRICE (ZILLOW.COM) $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 $667,242 96161
MEDIAN SINGLE-FAMILY PRICE (LISTSOURCE.COM) JUNE-NOVEMBER 2015 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $575,000 $529,500 $800,000 $620,000 $523,000 $520,000 $525,000 $575,000 $589,000 $600,000 $388,100 $400,000 $200,000 $0 $1,115,000 $1,101,000
AFFORDABLE RENTAL RATES (FOR PLACER COUNTY) Income Level One Two Three Four Five Extremely Low (30% MFI) $300- $310 $334- $354 $369- $388 $403- $421 $427- $447 Very Low (50% MFI) $550- $560 $619- $639 $690- $709 $761- $779 $813- $833 Low (80% MFI) $925- $935 $1049- $1069 $1173- $1192 $1297- $1315 $1392- $1412 Moderate (120% FMI) $1427- $1437 $1620- $1640 $1817- $1836 $2012- $2030 $2166- $2186
AFFORDABLE RENTAL RATES (FOR NEVADA COUNTY) Income Level One Two Three Four Five Extremely Low (30% MFI) $335- $346 $375- $392 $413- $433 $451- $470 $478- $497 Very Low (50% MFI) $603- $614 $683- $700 $759- $779 $835- $854 $893- $912 Low (80% MFI) $1006- $1017 $1141- $1158 $1275- $1295 $1409- $1428 $1513- $1532 Moderate (120% FMI) $1543- $1554 $1757- $1774 $1968- $1988 $2177- $2196 $2344- $2363
MARKET RATE APARTMENT COMPLEXES Name The Aspens of Truckee Evergreen Apartments Sierra Village (Mkt. Rate) Numbe r of Units Bed s Bath s Sq. Ft. Rent/Month 28 1 1 650 $1,000 2 2 1,100 $1,300 14 0 1 400 $950-$1,200 2 1 850 $1,300-$1,500 13 2-4 1-2 TBD TBD
CURRENTLY LISTED RENTALS (ALL UNIT TYPES) Studio One Bedroom Two Bedroom Three Bedroom Four Bedroom Average $852 $1,225 $1,472 $2,237 $2,425 Median $850 $1,263 $1,350 $2,198 $2,500 Count 7 8 15 32 9
AFFORDABLE RENTAL COMPLEXES Name Address City Numbe r of Units Affordabilit y Level Kings Beach Housing Now 204 Chipmunk St. Kings Beach 77 Low & Very Low Frishman Hollow 11026 Rue Ivy Truckee 32 Very Low Henness Flats 11929 Waters Way Truckee 92 River View Homes 11230 Village Way Truckee 38 Low & Very Low Low & Very Low Sawmill Heights (Afford.) 7646 Highlands View Rd Truckee 96 Low & Moderate Sierra Village (Afford.) 10081 Martis Valley Rd Truckee 59 Low & Very Low
AFFORDABLE RENTAL COMPLEXES (CONTINUED) Name Address City Numbe r of Units Truckee Donner Senior 10040 Estates Dr Truckee 60 Truckee Pines 10100 Estates Dr Truckee 104 Affordabilit y Level Low & Very Low Age 62+ Low & Very Low
Number of Sites Number of Units SITE DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY 140 4,500 120 100 80 115 4,069 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 60 40 20 1,733 1,869 16 45 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0-0-5 du./ac. 6-10 du./ac. >10 du./ac. Number of Sites Anticipated Yield (Units)
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? BAE Urban Economics 803 2 nd Street, Suite A Davis, CA (530) 750-2195 Matt Kowta, Principal mkowta@bae1.com Aaron Nousaine, Senior Associate aaronnousaine@bae1.com
INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT (EDD, 2000 & 2014) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 n.a. 2000 2014
COMMUTE FLOWS (CENSUS, ONTHEMAP, 2015) Employed in Region (2003) Living Within Region (2003) 6,391, 45% 7,875, 55% 6,391, 62% 3,935, 38% Live Outside Region/In-Commuters Live Within Region Work Outside Region/Out-Commuters Work Within Region
COMMUTE FLOWS (CENSUS, ONTHEMAP, 2015) Employed in Region (2013) Living Within Region (2013) 6,554, 41% 9,271, 59% 6,554, 53% 5,723, 47% Live Outside Region/In-Commuters Live Within Region Work Outside Region/Out-Commuters Work Within Region
OCCUPANCY STATUS (CENSUS 2000) North Tahoe Study Area (2000) North Tahoe Counties (2000) 55.4% 44.6% 14.1% 85.9% Occupied Housing Units Vacant Housing Units Occupied Housing Units Vacant Housing Units
VACANCY STATUS (CENSUS 2000) North Tahoe Study Area 1.1% 0.0% 0. 0.4% 0.5% (2000) 0.9% 0.0% North Tahoe Counties (2000) 0.8% 1.3% 0.6% For rent 52.5% 10.4% For rent For sale only Rented or sold, not occupied For seasonal or occasional use For migrant workers For sale only Rented or sold, not occupied For seasonal or occasional use For migrant workers * Held vacant for any reason other than those listed above.