Virginia HOME SALES REPORT MAY 2018 Published by the Virginia REALTORS, the advocate for real estate professionals and property owners in Virginia.
The Virginia REALTORS association publishes monthly and quarterly home sales reports to provide our members, the media, and real estate-related industries with current data. The report data comes from a variety of sources and is analyzed by the Virginia REALTORS. All data may be used with citation to the proprietary owner, the Virginia REALTORS. The data presented is based on specific economic regions comprised of counties and independent cities in Virginia, as detailed in the map below. It should be noted that these regions do not necessarily align with the counties and cities that comprise the 28 local REALTOR associations in Virginia. For example, the economic region defined as Northern Virginia encompasses more counties and cities than those within the bounds of the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS (NVAR). Please take this into consideration when referencing regions. Central Eastern Hampton Roads Northern Southside Southwest Valley West Central Albemarle, Amelia, Buckingham, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Culpeper, Cumberland, Dinwiddie, Fluvanna, Goochland, Greene, Hanover, Henrico, King & Queen, King William, Louisa, Madison, Nelson, New Kent, Orange, Powhatan, Prince George, Rappahannock, Sussex; Charlottesville, Colonial Heights, Hopewell, Petersburg, Richmond Accomack, Essex, King George, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northampton, Northumberland, Richmond, Westmoreland Gloucester, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, Surry, York; Chesapeake, Franklin, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Poquoson, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Williamsburg Arlington, Clarke, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford, Warren; Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Fredericksburg, Manassas, Manassas Park Brunswick, Charlotte, Greensville, Halifax, Henry, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Nottoway, Patrick, Pittsylvania, Prince Edward, Southampton; Danville, Emporia, Martinsville Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Dickenson, Floyd, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Smyth, Tazewell, Washington, Wise, Wythe; Bristol, Galax, Norton Alleghany, Augusta, Bath, Frederick, Highland, Page, Rockbridge, Rockingham, Shenandoah; Buena Vista, Covington, Harrisonburg, Lexington, Staunton, Waynesboro, Winchester Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Craig, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke; Lynchburg, Radford, Roanoke, Salem Data recorded June 20, 2018 1
May Market Summary Existing homes sales in Virginia fell by 0.9% in May as a tight inventory supply continues to constrain the market. May existing home sales fell from 12,700 existinghome sales in May 2017 to 12,590 in May 2018. Annualized existing-home sales, a measure of the preceding 12 months of activity, totaled 123,088 sales at the end of May. Statewide median sales price increased year over year 2.4%, rising to $294,000. This is the 26 th straight month that median sales price has risen year over year. The ask-tosell ratio stayed at 100.0% in May, the second straight month at that level. Tight inventory and increasing demand continue to push prices upward. The median number of days on the market dropped to 31 days, down from 36 days in May 2017, and down from 32 days in April 2018. May 2018 existing home sales volume (the sum of all sales) increased 1.3 percent over the same period in 2017, from $4.490 billion in May 2017 to $4.548 billion in May 2018. Annualized home sales volume, a measure each month of the total sales volume for the previous 12 months, totaled $42.288 billion for existing-home sales for the twelve months preceding May 31, 2018. This marks the 23 rd straight month that annualized existing home sales volume has risen. The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate for May decreased slightly to 4.57 percent. Despite rate increases over the past year, financing remains historically affordable and, coupled with Virginia s low 3.2% unemployment rate and high consumer confidence, continues to encourage market entry. Data recorded June 20, 2018 2
123,500 123,000 122,500 122,000 121,500 121,000 120,500 120,000 119,500 119,000 118,500 Existing Home Sales - Annual Rate 122,724 122,782 122,877 123,099 123,004 123,198 123,088 122,226 121,056 121,233 121,425 121,342 120,193 Year over year, existing home sales fell in May by 0.9% (from 12,700 in May 2017 to 12,590 in May 2018). Annualized home sales, a measure each month of the total sales for the previous 12 months, totaled 123,088 existing-home sales transactions for the twelve months preceding May 31, 2018. Existing Home Sales - Year over Year 14,000 12,000 11,786-0.9 % 12,700 12,590 10,000 9,674 10,356 6.8% CAGR 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - May-2014 May-2015 May-2016 May-2017 May-2018 Data recorded June 20, 2018 3
310,000 300,000 290,000 280,000 Existing Home Sales Median Price 2.4% 287,000 289,900 294,000 270,000 260,000 250,000 240,000 Median price rose from May 2017 by 2.4 percent, from $287,000 to $294,000. This marks the 26 th month in a row that Existing Home Sales Median Price has risen year over year. Median price also rose $5,100 from the prior month ($289,900 in April). Below, historical data indicates continued long-term price escalation. 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.4% 3.4% Existing Home Sales Median Price - % Change Year over Year 5.7% 2.4% 1.4% 1.9% 2.6% 3.1% 2.5% 1.6% 4.9% 3.5% 2.4% Data recorded June 20, 2018 4
Billions 42.5 42.0 41.5 41.0 40.5 40.0 39.5 39.0 38.5 40.043 Existing Home Sales Volume - Annual Rate 40.507 40.802 40.983 41.048 41.411 41.716 41.780 41.878 41.966 42.052 42.231 42.288 Existing home sales volume (the total dollar value of all sales for a given period) totaled $4.548 billion for May 2018, an increase of 1.3 percent from the preceding May ($4.490 billion). Annualized home sales volume, a measure each month of the total sales volume for the previous 12 months, totaled $42.288 billion for existing-home sales for the twelve months preceding May 31, 2018. This marks the 23 rd straight month that annualized existing home sales volume has risen. Billions 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Existing Home Sales Volume - Year over Year 3.150 3.521 3.963 9.6% CAGR 1.3 % 4.490 4.548 May-2014 May-2015 May-2016 May-2017 May-2018 Data recorded June 20, 2018 5
60 50 40 30 Existing Home Sales Median Days on Market s 36 35 36 38 40 42 43 44-11.4 % 46 53 47 37 32 31 20 10 0 The chart above illustrates the median number of days on the market for each month. Shorter transaction time suggests strong buyer motivation. Relative to last year, May median days on market, the time from list to close, decreased by a notable 11.4 percent (from 35 to 31 days). Monthto-month, median days on the market slightly decreased (1 days or 3.1 percent) as the Spring typically marks the low water mark for the year for the median days on the market, as demand picks up. Existing Home Days on Market -Year over Year s 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5-44 42 35 31 28 May-2014 May-2015 May-2016 May-2017 May-2018 Data recorded June 20, 2018 6
100.2% 100.0% 99.8% 99.6% 99.4% 99.2% 99.0% 98.8% 98.6% 98.4% 98.2% Existing Home Sales Ask Sell Ratio 99.8% 100.0% 100.0% Sellers in May sold their Virginia homes for 100.0% of the listing price, slightly higher than the national average. This is the second month in row at 100%. The ask sell ratio (sales price / list price) shows how close to the seller s asking price that buyers are paying for their homes. It is a measure meant to show who has leverage in the typical transaction. The ask to sell ratio has been climbing slightly over the years as inventory constraints continue to drive prices up. 100.2% 100.0% 99.8% 99.6% 99.4% 99.2% 99.0% 98.8% 98.6% 98.4% 98.2% Existing Home Ask Sell Ratio - Year over Year 98.9% 99.0% 99.2% 99.8% 100.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Data recorded June 20, 2018 7
Virginia Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 7.0% 5.0% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.9% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% Virginia unemployment continues to track well below the national average as May 2018 s unemployment rate dropped to 3.2%, compared with the national average of 3.9%. Low unemployment is correlated with bolstered consumer confidence and encouragement for buyers to enter the market. 4.75% Average 30 -Year Mortgage Interest Rate Source: FreddieMac 4.58% 4.57% 4.50% 4.25% 4.20% 4.33% 4.44% 4.00% 3.75% 4.05% 4.01% 3.90% 3.97% 4.03% 3.88% 3.90% 3.92% 3.95% 3.81% 3.50% Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate for May 2018 dropped slightly to 4.57 percent. Despite increases over the past year, rates remain enticing to buyers. Data recorded June 20, 2018 8
The Virginia REALTORS association is the largest professional trade association in Virginia, representing approximately 33,000 REALTORS engaged in the residential and commercial real estate business. The Virginia REALTORS association serves as the advocate for homeownership and private property rights and represents the interests of real estate professionals and property owners in the Commonwealth of Virginia. NOTE: The term REALTOR is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS and subscribes to its strict code of ethics. All inquiries regarding this report may be directed to: Rick Lugg Virginia REALTORS rlugg@virginiarealtors.org 804-249-5703 The numbers reported here are preliminary and based on current entries into multiple listing services. Over time, data may be adjusted to reflect increased reporting. Information is sourced from multiple listing services across Virginia and is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. Data recorded June 20, 2018 9