Generic Environmental Impact Statement Build-Out Analysis City of Buffalo, New York 2015 Prepared by:
TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 2.0 METHODOLOGY 2 3.0 EXISTING LAND USE 3 4.0 EXISTING ZONING 5 5.0 NO-ACTION BUILD-OUT (Citywide) 7 6.0 NO-ACTION SUMMARY (Citywide) 13 7.0 UNIFIED DEVELOPMENT ORDINANCE 15 8.0 PROPOSED CITYWIDE ACTION BUILD -OUT 25 9.0 PROPOSED CITYWIDE ACTION BUILD-OUT SUMMARY 25 10.0 PROPOSED SUB-AREA ACTION BUILD-OUT 27 11.0 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 30 TABLES TABLE 1: SUMMARY OF LAND USES... 3 TABLE 2: R2 BUILD-OUT SUMMARY... 8 TABLE 3: R3 BUILD-OUT SUMMARY... 8 TABLE 4: R4 BUILD-OUT SUMMARY... 9 TABLE 5: R5 BUILD-OUT SUMMARY... 9 TABLE 6: INDUSTRIAL DISTRICT BUILD-OUT SUMMARY... 12 TABLE 7: DO DOWNTOWN OPPORTUNITY BUILD-OUT SUMMARY... 12 TABLE 8: II INSTITUTIONAL-LIGHT INDUSTRIAL BUILD-OUT SUMMARY... 12 TABLE 9: NO ACTION BUILD-OUT (CITYWIDE) SUMMARY... 13 TABLE 10: PROPOSED ACTION BUILD-OUT (CITYWIDE) SUMMARY... 27 TABLE 11: PROPOSED ACTION BUILD-OUT (SUB-AREA) SUMMARY... 29 FIGURES FIGURE 1 EXISTING LAND USE... 4 FIGURE 2 EXISTING ZONING... 6 FIGURE 3 NO ACTION BUILD-OUT... 14 FIGURE 4 PROPOSED ZONING DISTRICTS... 16 FIGURE 5 PROPOSED ACTION BUILD-OUT (CITYWIDE)... 25 FIGURE 6 PROPOSED ACTION BUILD-OUT (SUB-AREA)... 30
1.0 INTRODUCTION The City of Buffalo s recently drafted Unified Development Ordinance (2015) provides the framework to guide future development within the city. This build-out analysis is intended to assess the potential impacts of build-out under the city s existing Zoning Ordinance ( No-Action ), as well as under the city s Unified Development Ordinance (UDO) ( Proposed Action ). The build-out is intended to depict future growth patterns based on the existing and proposed zoning regulations. It illustrates how the community could look if all of the remaining developable properties are developed to their maximum potential, as permitted by right in the existing and proposed zoning codes. The build-out analysis is intended to depict future growth patterns under the existing and proposed zoning regulations. Specifically, the build-out aims to provide information regarding the following: The growth patterns encouraged by the existing zoning; The growth patterns encouraged by the proposed zoning; and The maximum potential growth under the existing and proposed zoning; A sub-area which will accommodate at least 30,000 residents (based on current growth patterns), was identified by the city. The methodology, assumptions, and findings from the No-Action and Proposed Action alternatives are further described in the remaining sections of this document. Existing Land Use Snapshot Build-Out Snapshot Page 1
2.0 METHODOLOGY To conduct the build-out analysis for the City of Buffalo, several assumptions were made. First, the build-out only considered lands available for development. These properties (i.e., vacant properties and surface lots within the downtown core) were identified using New York State Office of Real Property Services (NYSORPS) class codes from parcel data obtained from Erie County (2015). Furthermore, the build-out only considered as-of-right uses, or uses permitted in each zone without the need to obtain a variance. In addition, the analysis does not reconcile or consider nonconforming or grandfathered uses. Such uses are assumed to be existing and therefore the properties not eligible for immediate redevelopment. Existing Parcels Finally, the build-out does not attempt to determine when redevelopment of available lands might occur. As a result, the build-out represents the maximum possible growth permissible within the city, which is considered the worst case scenario for environmental analysis. The build-out considered building-types permitted in each district, prioritizing those that constituted the highest and most intense use permitted in the district, also taking into account the purpose of each district. The specific bulk and use standards for each building type, as established in the proposed code by district, were used to calculate potential build-out on individual parcels throughout the city. In addition to a citywide assessment, the build-out analysis assessed the maximum build-out potential for likely growth areas identified by the city. These areas were identified based on smart-growth considerations, including the availability of existing infrastructure, existing demographic trends, proximity to transportation assets and the ability to accommodate at least 30,000 additional residents, consistent with the goals of the Comprehensive Plan adopted in 2006. Existing Land Use Patterns Existing Zoning Additional assumptions for the build-out analysis are described with the results for each of the build-out scenarios included herein. Proposed Zoning Page 2
3.0 EXISTING LAND USE The City of Buffalo is characterized by a range of land uses, including residential, commercial, industrial, community services, vacant lands, and open space and recreation. Land uses throughout the city were identified using NYSORPS land use class codes provided by Erie County (2015). According to parcel data, residential land uses comprise the largest portion of the city. Approximately 72.4 percent of the city s total parcels are classified as residential uses, comprising 32.7 percent of the acreage of the city. This composition is likely an underestimate as apartment complexes and certain multi-family units are classified separately as commercial (income generating) uses. Vacant parcels comprise the second largest land use within the city, consisting of 17.3 percent of the city s total parcels and 15.1 percent of land area in the city. Vacant parcels and surface parking lots within the downtown core provide the most immediate redevelopment opportunities within the city. Citywide, there is approximately 3,250 acres of developable land. Much of the city s vacant land is concentrated on the east side of the city. Vacant properties are the second most abundant land use in the city of Buffalo, comprising 17.3 percent of the city s parcels. These properties provide the greatest opportunities for redevelopment and infill development. Commercial properties are the third largest land use and consist of seven percent of city parcels and 14.8 percent of the city s parcel area. Commercial areas are concentrated along primary thoroughfares leading into the downtown core (e.g., Elmwood Avenue, Delaware Avenue, Broadway, South Park, etc.), as well as within the downtown core. Table 1 and Figure 1 summarize and illustrate the distribution of land uses throughout the city. Table 1: Summary of Land Uses Land Use Class Parcels % City Total Acreage % City 0 No Class Code 1,191 1.3% 2,460 11.4% 200 Residential 68,377 72.4% 7,051 32.7% 300 Vacant 16,374 17.3% 3,254 15.1% 400 Commercial 6,622 7.0% 3,183 14.8% 500 Recreation & 142 0.2% 702 Entertainment 3.3% 600 Community Services 875 0.9% 1,786 8.3% 700 Industrial 480 0.5% 1,267 5.9% 800 Public Service 259 0.3% 513 2.4% 900 Wild, Forested, Conservation Lands, 86 0.1% 1,353 and Public Parks 6.3% Totals 94,406 100.0% 21,569 100.0% Page 3
FIGURE 1 EXISTING LAND USE Page 4
4.0 EXISTING ZONING Buffalo currently has 15 zoning districts to regulate development throughout the city (see Figure 2). The existing code is a Euclidean zoning code, which was widely utilized at the time of the code s adoption (1953). Euclidean zoning codes separate land uses into districts, and establish bulk and use standards for each permitted use. Buffalo s existing zoning code is also cumulative; therefore, less restrictive zoning districts permit all uses allowed in more restrictive districts, in addition to other higher intensity uses. Finally, the city has numerous overlay districts (i.e. special districts ) to address unique character areas and encompass a portion of one or more zoning districts. Overlay zoning districts were not considered as part of this analysis. The city s existing established zoning districts include: R1 One Family District R2 Dwelling District R3 Dwelling District R4 Apartment District R5 Apartment-Hotel District C1 Neighborhood Business District C2 Community Business District C3 Central Business District CM Central Commercial District M1 Light Industrial District M2 General Industrial District M3 Heavy Industrial District DO Downtown Opportunity District II Institutional Light Industrial District The build-out potential of each district, as permitted by the existing zoning, is discussed further in the No Action Build-Out section. Page 5
FIGURE 2 EXISTING ZONING Page 6
5.0 NO-ACTION BUILD-OUT (Citywide) The No Action build-out scenario is intended to illustrate the build-out potential of the city under its existing zoning code. For the purposes of this build out, it was assumed that the existing land use patterns would continue under the existing zoning regulations. Asof-right uses were evaluated for each district, also recognizing that residential development would be prioritized in the residential districts and commercial development prioritized in the commercial districts. R1 One Family District The R1 One Family District promotes single-family residential development in targeted areas throughout the city. These districts are primarily located in the Elmwood Village neighborhood, in the Parkside neighborhood, in proximity to Delaware Park, and in portions of South Buffalo. Based on the build-out analysis, approximately 45 single-family units could be constructed on vacant lots within the R1 One Family District. Assumptions: The build-out analysis assumed vacant properties would primarily be redeveloped into singlefamily detached homes within the R1 One Family District. The R1 One Family District encourages single-family residential development on larger lots throughout the city. R2 Dwelling District The R2 Dwelling District promotes single family and multi-family residential development throughout the city. Based on the existing zoning code, the R2 zoning district could accommodate 402 singlefamily detached units, 5,480 two-family units, and 1,188 threefamily units. Assumptions: The build-out analysis for this district prioritized multi-family development over single family detached development opportunities. In addition, the build out considered the minimum square footage for residential structures, as specified in the existing zoning regulations. Table 2: R2 Build-Out Summary Residential Zoning District Square Feet Residential Units R2 Dwelling District One Family Detached 2,052,636 402 Two Family 13,972,948 5,480 Three Family 1,901,101 1,188 Page 7
R3 Dwelling District The R3 Dwelling District permits single family residential development, but is intended to promote multi-family residential development as well as more flexible residential living options. According to the build-out analysis, the R3 Dwelling District can accommodate 74 single-family residential dwelling units, 250 units in two-family structures and 733 other family units. Assumptions: For the purposes of the build-out analysis, it was assumed that this district would prioritize multi-family dwellings. Although select commercial uses are permitted, it was assumed residential development would be prioritized based on the intent of the district. Bulk and use standards were used to identify parcels appropriate for each dwelling type within this district. Table 3: R3 Build-Out Summary Residential Zoning District Square Feet Residential Units R3 Dwelling District One Family Detached 529,567 74 Two Family 896,066 251 Three Family -- -- Other Family 5,132,744 733 R4 Apartment District The R4 Apartment District is intended to permit apartment style residential development. This district is primarily located along Main Street and Delaware Avenue in downtown Buffalo. According to the build-out analysis, approximately 1,112 residential rental units could be accommodated in the R4 Apartment District. Assumptions: Although multiple uses are permitted within the R4 Apartment District, it was assumed that apartment style development would constitute the highest intensity use in the district. In addition, it was assumed apartment units would average 700 square feet 1. This assumption was also used for future development patterns under the proposed zoning regulations for commercial block development. 1 For the purposes of this build-out analysis, 700 square feet per dwelling unit was utilized for both the existing and proposed zoning regulations. Loft style apartments, as permitted in the proposed code, were assumed to be larger in size (i.e., 900 square feet). It was assumed that even under the existing zoning code, the city would encourage developers to use smart growth best practices resulting in smaller dwelling units for higher density and more compact development. Page 8
Table 4: R4 Build-Out Summary Residential Zoning District Square Feet Residential Units R4 Apartment District Residential 778,379 1,112 R5 Apartment-Hotel District The R5 Apartment-Hotel District was established to promote flexible transient residential uses while additionally accommodating commercial lodging opportunities. The R5 district is primarily located in Allentown and portions of the West Side. According to the build-out analysis, approximately 1,819 residential units could be accommodated in the R5 Apartment-Hotel District. Assumptions: The build-out analysis assumed an average unit size of approximately 700 square feet. In addition, the R5 district analysis primarily relied on the bulk and use standards established for the R4 Apartment District. Table 5: R5 Build-Out Summary Residential Zoning District Square Feet Residential Units R5 Apartment-Hotel District Residential 1,273,635 1,819 C1 Neighborhood Business District The Neighborhood Business District builds on the R5 Apartment- Hotel District and additionally permits neighborhood businesses including grocery, retail, and service establishments. The C1 zoning districts are scattered throughout the city and located along primary transportation routes. According to the build-out analysis, there is approximately 1.7 million square feet of commercial build-out potential within the C1 Neighborhood Business District. Much of this build-out potential is concentrated on the East Side of the city. Page 9
Assumptions: For the purposes of this build-out analysis, it was assumed that commercial development would be prioritized in areas zoned for the C1 Neighborhood Business District. As a result, no infill residential development was estimated as part of the analysis. As specified in the code, the bulk and use standards established for the R3 Dwelling District also apply to properties located within the C1 Neighborhood Business District, and were therefore used for the analysis. C2 Community Business District The C2 Community Business District permits retail, service and office development, similar to the C1 district. In addition, the district permits amusement enterprises, dry cleaning facilities, and automotive services. Based on the build-out analysis, there is approximately 2.3 million square feet of buildable area within the C2 district for future commercial development. Much of the developable areas are located along major transportation corridors leading into the city, including Sycamore Street, and Fillmore Avenue, as well as in and around Allentown and City Ship Canal area south of I-190. Assumptions: For the purposes of this build-out analysis, it was assumed that commercial uses would be the primary and highest impact use permitted for the district. As a result, residential uses were not considered in the estimate though feasibly they could locate within the district. C3 Central Business District The C3 Central Business District is clustered around the intersection of Broadway and Fillmore Avenue. This district accommodates uses permitted in the C1 and C2 commercial districts while also allowing warehouse facilities. The build-out analysis estimates only 28,700 square feet of developable area is available for commercial development within this district. The build-out potential of this district is limited due to the small size and single location of the district within the city. Above Areas zoned as CM District are scattered along commercial corridors throughout the city. Assumptions: The build-out only considered commercial uses for future build-out potential in this district, as it is assumed they constitute the highest intensity uses. Page 10
CM Central Commercial District The Central Commercial District is located along primary thoroughfares leading into downtown, including Genesee Street, Sycamore Street, Main Street, and Niagara Street. CM districts are also clustered around existing institutional uses, such as Canisius College. In addition to uses permitted in other commercial districts throughout the city, the CM District permits manufacturing in these locations. The build-out estimates there is approximately 5.1 million square feet of buildable area located in areas throughout the CM districts. These areas are scattered along the Genesee, Sycamore and Main Street areas. Assumptions: The build-out assumed commercial uses would be the highest intensity use in areas zoned as CM District. As a result, residential uses were not considered as part of the analysis. Industrial Districts There are three industrial districts in the city. These include the M1 Light Industrial District, the M2 General Industrial District, and the M3 Heavy Industrial District. Industrial districts comprise a large portion of the city and are primarily located in the northwest near the border of the Town of Tonawanda, in the South Buffalo area, and to the east near Bailey Avenue. Table 6 breaks out the build-out by industrial zone. According to the analysis, the M1 Light Industrial district could accommodate the most future development (32.9 million square feet), followed by the M2 General Industrial District (26.5 million square feet). The M3 Heavy Industrial District can accommodate the least future development, and is concentrated in the South Buffalo Brownfield Opportunity Area as well as select areas due north of the Buffalo River. Assumptions: The highest intensity uses within the Industrial districts are industrial and/or select commercial uses. Residential development isn t generally encouraged in areas zoned for industrial uses. As a result, the build-out analysis focused on the build-out potential for industrial uses in these districts. Table 6: Industrial District Build-Out Zoning Summary District Industrial (Square Feet) M1 Light Industrial 32933731 M2 General Industrial District 26509860 M3 Heavy Industrial District 19439570 Above Industrial zoning designations, identified in purple, are concentrated in the northwest and southern portions of the city of Buffalo. Page 11
DO Downtown Opportunity District This downtown district covers the traditional downtown Buffalo core and was established to support expanded office, retail, and entertainment attractions; create a vital streetscape and public realm that is pedestrian-oriented; and define as-of-right regulations to expedite the design review process. Table 7 breaks out the build-out in this zone. According to the analysis, the DO Downtown Opportunity district could accommodate approximately 2 million square feet of commercial development. Assumptions: For the purpose of this analysis, a 25% residential and 75% commercial split was estimated. In addition, it was estimated that the average residential unit (i.e., apartment units) for this district would be approximately 700 square feet per unit. Table 7: Downtown Opportunity Build-Out Summary Zoning District (Square Feet) Residential Units DO Downtown Opportunity District Commercial 1,502,350 0 Residential 500,784 715 II Institutional Light Industrial District The Institutional-Light Industrial District covers the southern portion of downtown Buffalo outside the traditional core. It was established to provide some flexibility in allowable uses while regulating noxious uses that could be generated from certain industrial activities. Table 8 breaks out the build-out for this zone. According to the analysis, the II Institutional-Light Industrial district could accommodate approximately 2.9 million square feet of industrial development. Assumptions: The highest intensity use within this district is industrial. As a result, the build-out analysis focused on the build-out potential for industrial uses in this district. Table 8: Institutional-Light Industrial Build-Out Summary Zoning District (square feet) II Institutional - Light Industrial Industrial 2,933,419 Page 12
6.0 NO-ACTION SUMMARY (Citywide) The existing zoning code was drafted at a time when industrial and manufacturing uses were prevalent throughout the city, and when the separation of uses was a desirable practice. The local economy, however, is transitioning to a service-based economy, industrial areas are increasingly being redeveloped to support high-tech manufacturing, and the needs and desires of downtown residents are also changing. As a result, the zoning regulations should also be updated to reflect these changes and encourage more desirable and contemporary development patterns. According to the citywide build out analysis, the most build-out potential exists in the existing industrial (M1, M2, M3 and II) districts. Cumulatively, there is approximately 81.8 million square feet of buildable area available for future industrial infill opportunities. Areas zoned for residential districts offer the second most build-out potential throughout the city. According to the build-out analysis, there is approximately 38.9 million square feet of buildable area available for residential development in the form of single or multifamily structures. This equates to approximately 15,400 units throughout the city that can be developed. This analysis utilized the bulk and use standards established for each unit type permitted within each residential district. Finally, areas zoned for commercial uses can accommodate approximately 10.7 million square feet of future build-out potential. Because the existing zoning code is outdated, zoning regulations did not necessarily consider opportunities for mixed-use infill development, which would increase opportunities for both commercial and residential uses in areas appropriate for such development within the city. Table 9: No Action Build-Out (Citywide) Summary Development Type Square Feet Units Residential Buildout One Family Detached 2,879,158 522 Two Family 14,869,014 5,731 Three Family 13,972,948 5,480 Other Family 5,132,744 733 Apartment Units 2,552,798 3,647 Commercial Build-Out Commercial 10,657,412 -- Industrial Build-Out Industrial 81,816,581 -- Page 13
FIGURE 3 NO ACTION BUILD-OUT Page 14
7.0 UNIFIED DEVELOPMENT ORDINANCE The Unified Development Ordinance builds off the city s Comprehensive Plan. Subsequent work included creation of a Land Use Plan, which was used to develop a refined zoning code, also referred to as the Unified Development Ordinance (UDO). The intent of the zoning code is to move away from traditional, Euclidean-style zoning criteria and emphasize place based standards while implementing smart growth and sustainable practices throughout the city. The UDO breaks the City down into zones based on the desired mix of development and establishes Neighborhood Zones, District Zones, and Corridor Zones. Each zone and its associated districts are described further below (see Figure 4). Neighborhood Zones Neighborhood Zones are intended to be walkable, mixed-use areas that include high density urban areas as well as neighborhood transitional areas outlying the urban core. The form and dimensional standards for neighborhood zones vary based on the permitted building types and the character of the neighborhood zone in which they are located. There are 11 proposed neighborhood zones, which include: N-1D Downtown/Regional Hub N-1C Mixed-Use Core N-1S Secondary Employment Center N-2C Mixed-Use Center N-2E Mixed-Use Edge N-2R Residential N-3C Mixed-Use Center N-3E Mixed-Use Edge N-3R Residential N-4-30 Single-Family N-4-50 Single-Family Section 4.2 of the UDO outlines the building types permitted in each neighborhood zone. Building types vary to support commercial, mixed-use, and residential uses, and include: attached houses, carriage houses, civic buildings, commercial blocks, detached houses, flex buildings, loft buildings, shopfronts, shopfront houses, stacked units, and towers. Page 15
District Zones The UDO proposes 10 district zones throughout the city. These zones were formed to relate to specialized development clusters, such as college or medical campuses. This portion of the code is simplified compared to the neighborhood zone regulations by establishing form and dimensional standards specific to each district zone, and not based on each permitted use or building type. The UDO proposes the following district zones: D-R Residential Campus D-M Medical Campus D-E Educational Campus D-S Strip Retail D-C Flex Commercial D-IL Light Industrial D-IH Heavy Industrial D-OS Square D-OG Green D-ON Natural The D-OS, D-OG, and D-ON zones are proposed to address public spaces and civic plazas, civic green space and park areas, and natural spaces that are undeveloped and set aside for land conservation purposes. Therefore, build-out potential within these zones was not considered as part of this analysis. Corridor Zones The UDO establishes a series of corridor zones, which include linear transportation systems, and green space or waterfronts that connect and border the various neighborhood zones and district zones. The code proposes the following corridor zones: C-M Metro Rail C-R Rail C-W Waterway For the purpose of this build-out analysis, particular focus was placed on the neighborhood and district zones, where the bulk of future residential, commercial, industrial and mixed-use development is anticipated to occur. Furthermore, the C-R Rail zone is characterized by limited access to existing utility infrastructure, which further discourages build-out in areas zoned for C-R. The city s proposed zoning districts are depicted on Figure 4. Page 16
FIGURE 4 PROPOSED ZONING DISTRICTS Page 17
8.0 PROPOSED CITYWIDE ACTION BUILDOUT A build-out analysis was completed for the city s proposed Neighborhood and District zones, focusing on the maximum potential build-out for residential, commercial, mixed-use, and industrial uses throughout the city. The uses permitted in each zone were ranked according to the maximum build-out that could be achieved to obtain a worst case scenario and to identify the maximum build-out potential for each zone. Citywide, there are 16,374 vacant parcels (17.3% of city parcels) that served as candidates for future potential build-out as well as surface parking lots in the Downtown. The build-out potential of the proposed zoning districts is described further in the following subsections. Neighborhood Districts N-1D Downtown Hub This district represents the downtown core of Buffalo. It is intended to accommodate a mix of uses at higher densities than permitted elsewhere within the city. The build-out analysis prioritized the most intense uses in this district since build-out will occur at the highest densities. Using the bulk and use criteria for the permitted building types, it was determined that approximately 111,379 square feet of commercial development can be accommodated. In addition, approximately 11.9 million square feet of residential build-out potential in the form of mixed-use (commercial block building type), stacked unit, or tower development. This translates into approximately 13,374 units that can be developed within this district. Assumptions: It was assumed that in a high density downtown location, a mixed-use structure (such as the commercial block) would accommodate approximately 75% residential and 25% commercial, and the residential unit size would average approximately 700 square feet. The stacked units were assumed to consist solely of residential units, approximately 900 square feet in size. Note: The build-out not only considered the permissible building footprint, but also the allowable building height. This district encourages vertical development. Page 18
N-1C Mixed-Use Core This district is located outside the downtown core, and at key development nodes and is intended to promote a mix of uses with mid-rise development. Parcels within this district were screened using the bulk and use requirements for each permitted building type in the proposed zoning code. Preference was given to development that would result in a worst case scenario for this district. Based on this analysis, it was determined that approximately 310,616 square feet of commercial development could be accommodated in the form of commercial blocks. In addition, there is approximately 31.4 million square feet of developable area for residential development in the form of commercial blocks (mixed-use), stacked units or attached houses. This translates into approximately 35,249 additional residential units that can be constructed within the N-1C Mixed-Use Core. Assumptions: This assumed a 25% commercial and 75% residential split for commercial block buildings. In addition, the stacked units were estimated to be approximately 900 square feet per unit. Note: The build-out also considered the maximum height of the building as permitted by the district and building type regulations. N-1S Secondary Employment Center The N-1S district promotes mixed-use employment opportunities and is characterized by structures with larger footprints. Permitted building types for this district were considered that would result in a worst case scenario build-out. As a result, it was identified that 12.9 million square feet of developable area is available for commercial development in the form of flex buildings and loft buildings. Additionally, approximately 5.3 million square feet of buildable area is available for residential development in the form of attached houses and loft buildings. This translates into approximately 5,103 single family and loft style units. Assumptions: For the purpose of this district, it was assumed that flex buildings would primarily accommodate commercial and office space. In addition, loft buildings were assumed to be split between commercial and apartment style residential uses. It was assumed that residential lofts would average approximately 900 square feet. N-2C Mixed-Use Center This district encompasses pedestrian-friendly, densely populated neighborhoods in the city. It intends to promote mixed-use, Page 19
walkable centers throughout the district. The most intense use identified within this district was the commercial block, which was prioritized over other permitted uses in the district. As a result, it was determined that there is approximately 957,774 square feet available for commercial development, and 2.8 million square feet for residential development, which translates into approximately 4,105 units in the form of commercial block and shopfront houses. Assumptions: For the purpose of this analysis, a 25% commercial and 75% residential split was estimated. In addition, it was estimated that the average residential unit in a commercial block for this district would be approximately 700 square feet per unit. Note: The build-out also considered the maximum height of the building as permitted by the district and building type regulations. N-2E Mixed-Use Edge This district addresses transitional areas surrounding mixed-use districts. Neighborhoods in the N-2E Mixed-Use Edge District are located at the edge of more intense mixed-use centers and defined by a mix of homes and stores. Historically, these were transitional areas in Buffalo s streetcar neighborhoods. According to the build-out analysis, approximately 315,304 square feet of commercial space in the form of commercial block development can be accommodated. In addition, approximately 5,843 residential units in the form of mixed-use (commercial block) and stacked unit development can be accommodated within the district. Assumptions: The build-out analysis assumed that a commercial block would accommodate 25% commercial and 75% residential units. In addition, it was assumed the average residential unit size for this type of development would be approximately 700 square feet. Stacked units were assumed to average 900 square feet. N-2R Residential This district consists of residential areas comprised of residential blocks with the occasional mixed-use corner. The analysis considered from greatest to least the intensity of uses permitted within the district to determine a worst case build-out scenario. The maximum build-out in this district will be occupied by residential uses in the form of attached houses, stacked units, and detached houses with approximately 20 million square feet Page 20
available for development. This translates into roughly 9,971 residential units. Assumptions: Stacked units were determined to be the most intense use permitted in this district. Vacant areas available for stacked units were evaluated first, followed by detached and attached housing units. For the purpose of this analysis, stacked units were assumed to average approximately 900 square feet in size. Note: The build-out also considered the maximum height of the building as permitted by the district and building type regulations. N-3C Mixed-Use Center This district addresses mixed-use, walkable neighborhoods that developed after the N-2C Mixed-Use Center neighborhoods and at a lower density. According to the build-out analysis for this district, approximately 1.4 million square feet of developable area is available for commercial development in the form of commercial blocks or shopfronts, and 4.2 million square feet is available for residential development in commercial block mixed-use development. This translates into approximately 6,014 residential units. Assumption: For this district, the highest intensity use was determined to be the commercial block, which was prioritized over other permissible building types. A 25% commercial and 75% residential split was assumed. In addition, for this district it was estimated that residential units in a mixed-use, commercial block setting would be approximately 700 square feet per unit. N-3E Mixed-Use Edge This district encompasses mixed use and residential areas that surround residential neighborhoods. This district is located along primary thoroughfares, such as Genesee Street, Sycamore Street, and Jefferson Avenue. Large amounts of developable land are located in these areas. According to the build-out analysis, approximately 3.4 million square feet of commercial development in the form of commercial block development can occur in this district. In addition, it is estimated that approximately 14,408 residential units can be constructed as part of a mixed-use development strategy. Assumption: It was assumed that the Commercial Block building style would accommodate approximately 25% commercial activity and 75% residential uses. Page 21
N-3R Residential This district is primarily characterized by compact residential neighborhoods with occasional mixed-use development. According to the build-out analysis, approximately 59.3 million square feet is available for residential development, translating into approximately 60,633 units. Assumption: For building types permitted within this district, Stacked Units were determined to be the highest intensity use, followed by attached housing. It was assumed that residential units located within the stacked unit building type would be approximately 900 square feet per unit. N-4-30 Single-Family This district consists primarily of single family homes on moderately compact lots at least 30 feet wide. The most intense permitted building type for this district is Detached Housing. Carriage houses were not considered as part of the analysis as they are accessory dwelling units. According to the build-out, approximately 9.3 million square feet of land is available for residential development which translates into approximately 2,142 single-family residential units. Assumption: This build-out was determined based on the total square footage available for development within the district, and the build-out requirements specified for detached housing units. N-4-50 Single Family This district addresses neighborhoods with large lot single family homes. According to the build-out, there is approximately 478,903 square feet of buildable area available for residential development, in the form of detached housing, in the N-4-50 district. This translates into approximately 80 residential units. District Zones D-R Residential Campus This district addresses residential campuses that may be garden apartments or towers in a park and are organized as a large-scale, integrated development. According to the build-out analysis, there is approximately 8.2 million square feet of buildable area available for development within this district. Future development will likely include a mix of residential, commercial and office style development patterns that compliment apartment-style living. Page 22
D-M Medical Campus This district addresses single or mixed-use medical campuses whose design and layout is specific to their special function. According to the build-out, there is approximately 16.5 million square feet of build-out potential in the Medical Campus district. The build-out did not consider redevelopment or expansion opportunities of existing development. D-E Educational Campus This district is formed around multiple-building sites that comprise institutional uses. These sites may be centered around a series of interconnected open spaces. According to the build-out, approximately 3.0 million square feet is available within this district for educational facility development. The build-out did not consider redevelopment or expansion opportunities. D-S Strip Retail This district addresses linear retail strips that are typically centered around one or more big box building, feature prominent parking, and are located adjacent to broad arterials or highway access points. According to the build-out, approximately 5.8 million square feet of developable area is available for future strip retail development opportunities. D-C Flex Commercial This district addresses commercial and mixed-use areas that benefit from flexible standards and are located in proximity to residential neighborhoods. According to the build-out, there is approximately 26.7 million square feet of build-out potential in this district for commercial and mixed-use development. D-IL Light Industrial This district is intended to accommodate and promote low to moderate impact employment uses that have a clear separation from residential areas. These are typically located adjacent to transportation thoroughfares and access points (e.g. highway, rail and water). According to the analysis, approximately 69.7 million square feet are available for light industrial build-out. D-IH Heavy Industrial This district addresses areas intended for intense, high-impact employment uses which are generally incompatible with other less intense uses (e.g. residential). Within the Heavy Industrial District, there are approximately 26.2 million square feet of land throughout the city that are vacant and available for development opportunities. Page 23
FIGURE 5 PROPOSED ACTION BUILD-OUT (Citywide) Page 24
9.0 PROPOSED CITYWIDE ACTION BUILD-OUT SUMMARY According to the proposed action build-out alternative, the N-1C Mixed-Use Core, N-3E Mixed-Use Edge, and N-3R Residential districts can accommodate the most residential development (approximately 35,249, 14,408 and 60,633 units, respectively). These districts accommodate residential development primarily in the commercial block, stacked unit, and attached house building types. These building types represent the highest density development opportunities permitted within those districts. The D-R Residential Campus will accommodate the most future commercial and residential campus-style development. Approximately 8.2 million square feet of developable area is available for campus-style development. Citywide, approximately 19.4 million square feet of buildable area is available for commercial development opportunities in the neighborhood district zones. In the district zones, there is 156 million square feet of developable area for commercial and industrial development opportunities. Furthermore, there is approximately 159.9 million square feet of buildable area available for residential development, which translates into roughly 156,979 residential units. Residential building types include mixed-use structures (i.e. commercial blocks), stacked units, and attached and detached housing units. Permitted building types vary by district, as discussed in earlier sections. The citywide build-out summary and greatest development opportunities are summarized in Table 10. Page 25
Table 10: Proposed Action Build-Out (Citywide) Neighborhood Zones Residential Proposed District Commercial (SF) SF Units N-1C 310,616 31,457,764 35,249 N-1D 111,379 11,948,282 13,374 N-1S 12,942,939 5,374,019 5,162 N-2C 957,774 2,873,323 4,105 N-2E 315,304 4,988,256 5,843 N-2R 0 20,026,949 9,971 N-3C 1,403,154 4,209,462 6,014 N-3E 3,361,764 10,085,428 14,408 N-3R 0 59,274,751 60,633 N-4-30 0 9,254,064 2,142 N-4-50 0 478,903 80 Total 19,402,930 159,971,201 156,981 District Zones Proposed District Build-Out Potential (SF) D-C D-IH D-IL D-R D-S D-E D-M Total 26,699,261 26,155,272 69,718,411 8,187,306 5,773,304 3,044,622 16,519,353 156,097,529 Page 26
10.0 PROPOSED SUB-AREA ACTION BUILD-OUT A build-out analysis was also completed for a defined sub-area of the city that is expected to accommodate the majority of the growth in the coming decades. This sub-area, based on current construction activity and logical growth, includes the Downtown core, Buffalo Niagara Medical Campus, the Main Street corridor extending to the University at Buffalo South Campus, the majority of the West Side, and a portion of the East Side, including the Larkinville neighborhood. Also included in the sub-area build-out are areas of planned projects including the Northland Beltline Corridor, the former Central Park Plaza, and University Place. Similar to the citywide analysis, this sub-area build-out focused on the maximum potential build-out for residential, commercial, mixed-use, and industrial uses. The uses permitted in each zone were ranked according to the maximum build-out that could be achieved to obtain a worst case scenario and to identify the maximum buildout potential for the entire sub-area. Within the sub-area, there are 3,420 vacant parcels (18% of subarea parcels) including surface parking lots in the N-1C & N-1D zones that served as candidates for future potential build-out. The future zoning district with the largest amount of developable land (by acreage) is the N-1C district, with 181 parcels totaling 5% of vacant, developable land and surface lots. This district is generally concentrated in the downtown core and along the Main Street Corridor. In the sub-area, approximately 6.3 million square feet of buildable area is available for commercial development opportunities in the neighborhood zones. In the district zones, there is approximately 11 million square feet of developable area for commercial and industrial development opportunities. Furthermore, there is approximately 63 million square feet of buildable area available for residential development, which translates into roughly 63,174 residential units. Residential building types include mixed-use structures (i.e., commercial blocks), stacked units, and attached and detached housing units. Permitted building types vary by district, as discussed in earlier sections. The sub-area build-out summary and greatest development opportunities are summarized in Table 11. Above N-1C designations, identified in red, are concentrated in the Downtown core and the Main Street Corridor. Page 27
Table 11: Proposed Action Build-Out (Sub-Area Growth Scenario) Neighborhood Zones Residential Proposed District Commercial (SF) SF Units N-1C 246,012 23,156,601 25,964 N-1D 111,379 11,948,282 13,374 N-1S 4,546,601 2,043,097 1,867 N-2C 701,541 2,104,622 3,007 N-2E 129,722 2,301,825 2,681 N-2R 0 12,231,324 6,252 N-3C 201,644 604,931 864 N-3E 382,943 1,148,830 1,641 N-3R 0 7,534,398 7,468 N-4-30 0 209,400 48 N-4-50 0 43,347 7 Total 6,319,842 63,326,657 63,173 District Zones Proposed District Build-Out Potential (SF) D-C D-IH D-IL D-R D-S D-E D-M Total 1,283,425 0 3,116,589 2,901,847 279,671 860,486 2,539,882 10,981,900 Page 28
FIGURE 6 PROPOSED ACTION BUILD-OUT (Sub-Area) Page 29
11.0 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The build-out analysis, as completed for vacant properties (and surface lots in the N-1C and N-1D zones) illustrates the build-out potential citywide and in a sub-area where the majority of growth is likely to occur. This build-out was completed for both the existing and proposed zoning regulations under worst case scenario conditions. There is more potential for residential build-out under the proposed zoning ordinance. Under the proposed zoning, an estimated additional 156,979 units could be accommodated citywide, as opposed to 15,400 under the existing zoning ordinance. In the sub-area where growth is likely to occur in the coming decades, an estimated additional 63,174 units could be accommodated. In either instance, the increased capacity is largely a result of the shift from the city s traditional Euclidean zoning ordinance, which separated uses by district. In addition, the existing zoning ordinance encourages lower density development through larger minimum lot sizes and smaller buildable areas. There is also more build-out potential for commercial and industrial development with the proposed zoning ordinance. The draft zoning ordinance takes into consideration the fact that higher density development promotes walkability, encourages multi-modal transportation opportunities, and will create a sense of place throughout the city. As a result, the new code allows build-out on larger portions of the site. In addition, for some building types, the proposed code encourages vertical development. Although it is unlikely the city will ever reach full build-out or the scale of development permitted by the new zoning code, the analysis informs where higher density development can be encouraged and concentrated. The analysis illustrates that more compact development patterns will result from the new code. Compact development patterns encouraged by the proposed zoning reduces the need for additional infrastructure by capitalizing on the capacity of existing infrastructure, promotes quality-of-life by encouraging more pedestrian and multi-modal transit oriented development patterns, provides significant benefits to the environment, and is a more financially viable development model for the city. The proposed zoning ordinance incorporates smart growth benefits to promote future development in a manner that makes the city a desirable place to live and work. Ultimately, these development patterns will have a positive impact on the city physically, socially and economically. Page 30