CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC & MARKET OUTLOOK. October 29,2014 SILVAR Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist

2014-2015 CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC & MARKET OUTLOOK October 29,2014 SILVAR Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist

OVERVIEW Economic Outlook California Housing Market Outlook Housing Affordability Regional Market 2015 Forecast

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 P Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11 Q2-11 Q3-11 Q4-11 Q1-12 Q2-12 Q3-12 Q4-12 Q1-13 Q2-13 Q3-13 Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 ECONOMY: GAINING MOMENTUM 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 2013: 1.9%; 2014: 2.2%; 2015: 3.0%; 2014 Q2: 4.6% ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $ ANNUALLY QUARTERLY -2% -3% 2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 (-3.4%) -4% SERIES: GDP SOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BELOW 6% CA - 7.3% (Sep. 2014) vs. US - 5.9% (Sep. 2014) 14% US-CA CA US 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% SERIES: Unemployment Rate SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, CA VS. U.S. ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE 4 California US 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division

PERCENT JOB LOSSES PRIOR RECESSIONS RECENT CYCLE WORST BY FAR

Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, BY INDUSTRY September 2014: CA +2.3%, +390,600 ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE 15% Construction Manufacturing Service 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment By Industry SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

CALIFORNIA JOB CHANGES BY INDUSTRY September 2014: CA +2.3%, +390,600 ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE Construction Admistrative & Support & Waste Services Information Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Health Care & Social Assistance Leisure & Hospitality Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Educational Services Durable Goods Government Finance & Insurance Nondurable Goods -1.7% -2.2% -0.3% 2.3% 2.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 0.9% 3.3% 4.9% 4.7% 5.3% 6.2% SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment By Industry SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE JOB TRENDS BY CALIFORNIA METRO AREA September 2014: CA +2.3%, +390,600 San Francisco San Jose San Diego 2.5% Fresno MSA 2.5% Sacramento 2.1% Oakland 2.0% Ventura 2.0% Orange 1.9% Los Angeles 1.8% Bakersfield 1.7% Stockton MSA 1.3% Modesto 1.1% 3.5% 3.7% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX September 2014: All Items +1.7% YTY; Core +1.7% YTY ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE 6% All Items Core 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% SERIES: Consumer Price Index SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

INDEX, 100=1985 120 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: UNCERTAINTY October 2014: 94.5 100 80 60 40 20 0 SERIES: Consumer Confidence SOURCE: The Conference Board

2009/01 2009/04 2009/07 2009/10 2010/01 2010/04 2010/07 2010/10 2011/01 2011/04 2011/07 2011/10 2012/01 2012/04 2012/07 2012/10 2013/01 2013/04 2013/07 2013/10 2014/01 2014/04 2014/07 8.28.14 9.18.14 MORTGAGE RATES: WHAT HAPPENED? January 2009 October 2014 6% 5% MONTHLY WEEKLY 4% 3% 2% FRM ARM 1% 0% SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 1Yr ARM SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

FORECASTERS HAVE BEEN EXPECTING RATES TO RISE Percent 6 6 Percent 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 Actual 10-year Treasury yield (solid black line) Predictions out to five quarters ahead of professional forecasters (hatched lines) 2 1 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 SERIES: Loan Officer Survey SOURCE: Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg

MORTGAGE RATES + 1% SPRING 2013 ACTUAL TAPERING? NO IMPACT? 8% FRM ARM Federal Funds 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 1Yr ARM, Federal Funds SOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

$ BILLIONS $3,000 U.S. DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS: HIGH LEVEL OF EXCESS RESERVES SINCE 9/08 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 SERIES: Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis

U.S. ECONOMIC FORECAST 2011 2012 2013 2014 P 2015 F Gross Domestic Product 1.8% 2.8% 1.9% 2.2% 3.0% Nonfarm Job Growth 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 2.2% Unemployment Rate 8.9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.8% Consumer Price Index 3.1% 2.1% 1.5% 2.0% 2.2% Real Disposable Income, % Change 1.3% 1.5% 0.7% 2.6% 2.6% SERIES: U.S. Economic Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC FORECAST 2011 2012 2013 2014 P 2015 F Nonfarm Job Growth 1.1% 2.4% 3.0% 2.2% 2.4% Unemployment Rate 11.8% 10.4% 8.9% 7.5% 6.7% Population Growth 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% Real Disposable Income, % Change 1.9% 1.1% 0.9% 3.0% 3.8% SERIES: CA Economic Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

TODAY S MARKET Clearly well on the road to recovering - Bay Area strongest regional market Volume A bit down, still reliant on investment sales Prices up sharply, but increases slowing in most markets Inventory remains tight but up from last year Pent-up/unrealized demand not yet translating into sales Affordability challenges emerging once again

CA SALES FLAT SINCE SPRING 2014 California, Sep. 2014 Sales: 396,440 Units, -9.5% YTD, -4.2% YTY 700,000 600,000 500,000 Sep-13: 413,850 Sep-14: 396,440 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS *Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized

80% 70% MULTIPLE OFFERS DECLINE WITH LESS INTENSE MARKET COMPETITION IN 2014 AFTER PEAKING IN 2013 % with Multiple Offers # of Multiple offers (Average) 72% 7 6 60% 5.7 53% 5 50% 40% 30% 4.3 4 3 20% 2 10% 1 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 SERIES: 2014 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

49 % SOLD BELOW ASKING IN 2014 Sale Price to Asking Price % of Price Reduction (Properties Sold Below Asking Price) Below Asking Price At Asking Price Above Asking Price Less than 5% 54% 33% 49% 5% to 9.99% 28% 10% to 19.99% 11% Median Reduction: 4.5% of List Price 18% 20% or more 7% 0% 20% 40% 60% SERIES: 2014 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

FEWER HOMES SOLD ABOVE THE ASKING PRICE AS MARKET COMPETITION COOLED IN 2014 60% 50% 40% % of Sales above Asking Price 50% 33% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% Median Price Discount & Weeks on Market Med. Price Discount Med. Weeks on MLS 16 14 12 10 30% 5% 8 20% 10% Long Run Average = 19% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0%, 2.1 weeks 6 4 2 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 QUESTION: What was the original list sales price of the property? What was the final sales price of the property? How many weeks did the property remain on the MLS? SERIES: 2014 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

INVESTMENT HOMES : 15% MARKET SHARE 20% 18% 19% 16% 15% 14% 12% Long Run Average: 12 % 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SERIES: 2013 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Jan-09 WE VE COME A LONG WAY SINCE 2009: EQUITY SALES: 9 OUT OF 10 TRANSACTIONS Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Equity Sales Short Sale REO 91.0% 10% 0% 4.6% 4.0% SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

DISTRESSED SALES: BAY AREA Percent of Total Sales Aug-14 Aug-12 60% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 36% 32% 23% 22% 25% 13% 2.5% 2.9% 1.8% 4.5% 4.2% Alameda Contra Costa Marin Napa Solano Sonoma SERIES: Distressed Sales, Not Seasonally Adjusted SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

SANTA CLARA COUNTY Preforeclosure: 486 Auction: 465 Bank Owned: 71 SOURCE: PropertyRadar.com as of 10/14/14

SAN JOSE Preforeclosure: 326 Auction: 321 Bank Owned: 51 SOURCE: PropertyRadar.com as of 10/14/14

CITY OF SANTA CLARA Preforeclosure: 19 Auction: 24 Bank Owned: 0 SOURCE: PropertyRadar.com as of 10/14/14

PALO ALTO Preforeclosure: 1 Auction: 2 Bank Owned: 0 SOURCE: PropertyRadar.com as of 10/14/14

SALES GROWING IN HIGHER PRICE RANGES Year-over-Year % Chg. in Sales Sep-14 40% 30% 28.3% 20% 18.5% 10% 0% -10% -0.7% -2.9% 4.9% 5.9% 2.8% -20% -30% -22.9% SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

CHANGE IN SALES BY PRICE RANGE 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% (Year-to-Year) $0 - $200k $500k+ $200 - $300k $300 - $400k $400 - $500k 9.0% 4.9% -0.7% -2.9% -22.9% SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 PRICE PLATEAU AHEAD; ANNUAL GAINS SLOWING California, Sep. 2014: $460,940, Up 7.6% YTY $700,000 $600,000 P: May-07 $594,530 Sep-13: $428,290 Sep-14: $460,940 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 T: Feb-09 $245,230-59% from peak $200,000 $100,000 $- SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

TROUGH VS. CURRENT PRICE By Counties, August 2014 Region Trough Month Trough Price Aug-14 Median %Chg Fr Trough Santa Barbara Mar-09 $296,590 $806,030 171.8% Monterey May-09 $203,500 $492,500 142.0% Alameda Jan-09 $346,236 $732,220 111.5% Lake Jun-11 $85,620 $178,330 108.3% California Feb-09 $245,230 $480,280 95.8% Santa Clara Feb-09 $445,000 $865,000 94.4% Merced Jan-10 $96,670 $186,670 93.1% Los Angeles May-10 $248,850 $474,640 90.7% Tehama Feb-11 $83,330 $156,000 87.2% Riverside Apr-09 $171,480 $318,640 85.8% SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

CALIFORNIA VS. U.S. MEDIAN PRICES 1970-2014 $600,000 California US $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $- SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: SOURCE: CALIFORNIA CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION ASSOCIATION OF OF REALTORS

INVENTORY IMPROVING FROM LAST YEAR Sept 2013: 3.6 Months; Sept 2014: 4.2 Months 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

INVENTORY HIGHER AT UPPER PRICE RANGES Price Range (Thousand) Sep-14 Aug-14 Sep-13 $1,000K+ 5.5 5.0 5.9 $750-999K 4.3 3.9 3.7 $500-749K 3.9 3.8 3.5 $400-499K 3.9 3.8 3.3 $300-399K 4.1 4.0 3.3 $200-299K 4.0 4.0 3.2 $0-199K 3.9 3.8 3.2 Note: Unsold Inventory Index represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were Active, Pending, and Contingent (when available) and divide the sum by the number of Sold properties for the month in question. SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

WHY WAS/IS INVENTORY SO LOW? Demand Side Housing affordability was at historic highs Low rates hurt investment alternatives International buyers Supply Side Little new construction for last 5 years Underwater homeowners are stuck Mortgage Lock-In Effect No inventory to move up Foreclosure pipeline drying up Investors are renting instead of flipping Off-market (aka pocket ) listings

BUYING TO RENT V. FLIP; CHANGE IN PREFERRED INVESTMENT STRATEGY Investment to Flip Rental Property SERIES: 2014 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

REAL ENEMY OF THE FUTURE OF CALIFORNIA? Housing Affordability The Achilles Heel of the California Economy What happens when housing costs are too high? Impact on jobs and economic growth Impact on neighborhoods and family stability

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY DOWN SHARPLY SINCE Q1 2012 % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME California vs. U.S. 1984-2014 80% CA US 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Annual Quarterly SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional Buyers SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

PITI/Month $4,000 SOME GOOD NEWS:MEDIAN CA HOUSE PAYMENT WELL BELOW PEAK PEAK Peak: $3,668/mo (2007 Q2) $3,500 $3,000 Latest: $2,340/mo (2014 Q2) $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $- Jan-80 Jan-83 Jan-86 Jan-89 Jan-92 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 2009 Q1 SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

MINIMUM QUALIFYING INCOME ALSO WELL BELOW PEAK Min. Income $160,000 Peak: $146,701/yr (2007 Q2) $140,000 $120,000 Latest: $93,593/yr (2014 Q2) $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $- Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan- 96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 2006 Q1 2012 Q1 SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

HOUSE PAYMENT (INFLATION ADJUSTED) IS AT LATE 1970 S LEVEL PITI/Month (ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION) $1,000 Peak: $928/mo (2006) $900 $800 $700 Latest: $458/mo (2013) $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $- 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

MINIMUM QUALIFYING INCOME IS THE SAME AS 35 YEARS AGO Min. Income (Adjusted for Inflation) Peak: $37,122 (2006) $40,000 Latest: $18,337 (2013) $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $- 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX What Will Happen When MORTGAGE RATES Increase? % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY, ALL ELSE CONSTANT 35% 34% 32% 29% Q2-2014 Median Price $457,140 20% Down payment 27% 26% 24% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS INTEREST RATE 22%

MEDIAN MONTHLY MORTGAGE PAYMENT What Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase? MONTHLY MORTGAGE Q2-2014 Median Price $457,140 $2,312 $2,193 $2,400 20% Down payment $2,076 $1,963 $1,746 $1,853 $2,000 $1,642 $1,542 $1,600 $1,200 $800 $400 $0 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% INTEREST RATE SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

MINIMUM QUALIFYING INCOME MONTHLY MORTGAGE $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 What Will Happen When Mortgage Rates Increase? Q2-2014 Median Price $457,140 20% Down payment $90,867 $95,149 $86,717 $82,703 $99,557 $104,087 $108,734 $113,490 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% INTEREST RATE SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY A MEDIAN- PRICED HOME IN CA: (PEAK VS. CURRENT) $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $56,324 $93,593 Change in minimum required income: $37,269 Increase in income attributed to interest rate increase: $836 (2.2% of total change) $40,000 $20,000 Increase in income attributed to price increase : $36,433 (97.8% of total change) $0 2012 Q1 2014 Q2 SERIES: Housing Affordability Index SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

SHARE OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS UP BUT STILL BELOW LONG-RUN AVERAGE 50% 40% Long Run Average = 38% % First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average 30% 28.1% 30.5% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 QUESTION: Was the buyer a first-time buyer? SERIES: 2014 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT LOW LEVEL OF FIRST-TIME BUYER? It signals a constrained flow of new households in the housing market Trade-up market cannot be replenished in the long run First-time buyers represent the main impulse that drives the state s homeownership rate

FINANCIAL CHARACTERISTICS: FIRST-TIME VS. REPEAT First-time Buyers Repeat Buyers All Buyers Median Household Income $80,000 $120,000 $100,000 Median Monthly Mortgage Payment $1,477 $1,868 $1,800 Median Downpayment (in $$) $32,500 $100,000 $70,000 Median Downpayment (in % to Price) 10% 20% 19.7% SERIES: 2014 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

REASONS FOR RENTING INSTEAD OF BUYING Can't afford to buy 44% Poor credit / Can't qualify Renting is easier Young/Starting out/not ready Flexibility/Freedom if renting Cost/Upkeep/Responsibility Plan to / Saving for down Never considered it/no interest Disabled/On disability 9% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 3% 2% SERIES: 2013 Renter Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

STUDENT LOAN DEBT AN ISSUE FOR 25% OF RENTERS Student Loan Debt Amount of Debt <$10,000 78% Refused, 2% $10-$20K 8% No, 75% Yes, 23% $20-$50K $50-$100K 6% 3% > $100K 2% Refused 2% SERIES: 2013 Renter Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

STUDENT DEBT: DRAGS ON HOME SALES

HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE LOWER IN CA California Vs. U.S. 75% CA US 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% SERIES: Homeownership Rates SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau

HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE BY AGE OF HOUSEHOLDER SOURCE: Census Bureau

MILLENNIAL HOMEOWNERSHIP FALLING SOURCE: Census Bureau

CALIFORNIA S HOUSING DELEMMA Even with everything (or at least most things) going right, our homeownership market is in trouble The rental market, even with the conversion of 500,000 SFH s, is still exhibiting inadequate supply

HOW TO MAKE IT MORE AFFORDABLE? ONE WORD: SUPPLY CA Housing Needs = Minimally 165,000 Units Annually Regulatory Problem Impact Fees Public Attitudes

CA PERMITS UP BUT MORE UNITS NEEDED 2013: 57,496 Units, Up 43.0% from 2012 350000 Single Family Multi-Family 300000 250000 Household Growth: 220,000-250,000/yr 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 SERIES: New Housing Permits SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board

REGIONAL HOUSING MARKETS

SANTA CLARA COUNTY

SALES OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Santa Clara County, September 2014: 844 Units Down 9.8% MTM, Down 11.9% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

MEDIAN PRICE OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Santa Clara County, September 2014: $852,500 Down 0.9% MTM, Up 10.0% YT SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

FOR SALE PROPERTIES Santa Clara County, September 2014: 2,598 Units Down 4.0% MTM, Down 10.8% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

MONTH S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY Santa Clara County, September 2014: 1.5 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

CITY OF SANTA CLARA

SALES OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES City of Santa Clara, September 2014: 57 Units Up 21.3% MTM, Up 16.3% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

MEDIAN PRICE OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES City of Santa Clara, September 2014: $840,000 Down 4.1% MTM, Up 14.9% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

FOR SALE PROPERTIES City of Santa Clara, September 2014: 77 Units Down 30.6% MTM, Down 35.8% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

MONTH S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY City of Santa Clara, September 2014: 0.9 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

SAN JOSE

SALES OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES San Jose, September 2014: 444 Units Down 15.7% MTM, Down 18.4% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

MEDIAN PRICE OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES San Jose, September 2014: $746,994 Down 3.6% MTM, Up 7.5% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

FOR SALE PROPERTIES San Jose, September 2014: 1,396 Units Down 5.7% MTM, Down 12.2% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

MONTH S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY San Jose, September 2014: 1.5 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

PALO ALTO

SALES OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Palo Alto, September 2014: 27 Units Down 18.2% MTM, Down 6.9% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

MEDIAN PRICE OF RESIDENTIAL HOMES Palo Alto, September 2014: $2,999,890 Up 25.0% MTM, Up 58.9% YTY SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

FOR SALE PROPERTIES Palo Alto, September 2014: 83 Units Up 15.3% MTM, Up 3.8% YTY Note: For Sale Properties represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as Active any point in time during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

MONTH S SUPPLY OF INVENTORY Palo Alto, September 2014: 1.1 Months Note: Month s Supply of Inventory represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were For Sale on the last day of the month in question. The inventory figure is then divided by the number of properties that went Under Contract during the month. SOURCE: Clarus Market Metrics

2015 FORECAST

CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET FORECAST 2011 2012 2013 2014 P 2015 F SFH Resales (000s) 422.6 439.8 413.3 380.5 402.5 % Change 1.4% 4.1% -5.8% -8.2% 5.8% Median Price ($000s) $286.0 $319.3 $407.2 $455.0 $478.7 % Change -6.2% 11.6% 27.5% 11.8% 5.2% Housing Affordability Index 53% 51% 36% 30% 27% 30-Yr FRM 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.3% 4.5% SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK Sales Down for 2014 but will Improve in 2015; Price Gains Slowing Units (Thousand) 700 Sales of Existing Detached Homes Price (Thousand) $600 Median Price 600 500 400 300 380 403 $500 $400 $300 $455 $479 200 $200 100 $100 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015f $0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015f SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

CA: DOLLAR VOLUME UP FOR 4 TH YEAR Up 2.7% in 2014, Up 11.3% in 2015 $ in Billion $400 $350 $301 $300 $250 $200 $150 $244 $164 $ Volume of Sales Percent Change -60% $169 $173 $133 $131 $140 $127 $121 % Change 30% 20% 10% 0% $193-10% $100-20% $50-30% $0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014p 2015f -40% SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

REAL ESTATE IS CONSIDERED THE BEST LONG TERM INVESTMENT SOURCE: Gallup

Make no mistake about it, the way that workingclass people build wealth is through homeownership, not the stock market, not their 401(k) and not a pension. John Taylor, President of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition,

ATTITUDE TOWARD THE HOME BUYING PROCESS MIXED RESULTS 60% 50% 50% 40% 34% 30% 20% 10% 8% 4% 4% 0% Positive Negative Neutral N/A Other SOURCE: How would you describe your attitude towards the home buying process? C.A.R. 2014 Millennial Survey

MOST MILLENNIALS UNCERTAIN/DOUBTFUL THAT THEY COULD OBTAIN A MORTGAGE NOW?AMILLENNIAL ETHNICITY Yes 22% Don't know 45% No 33% SOURCE: C.A.R. 2014 Millennial Survey Q: Could you obtain a mortgage if you applied now?

PEOPLE WOULD PREFER THE FOLLOWING OVER GOING THROUGH THE HOME MORTGAGE PROCESS AGAIN: SOURCE: Guaranteed Rate Mortgage Survey of 1,000 adults 25 and older USA Today April 2014

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