Q2 2018 PHOENIX INDUSTRIAL REPORT
MARKET FUNDAMENTALS ANNUAL COMPARISON Q2 2018 Q2 2017 VACANCY 6.97% VACANCY 8.95% RENTAL RATES $0.59 RENTAL RATES $0.58 SF UNDER CONSTRUCTION 5.79 M SF UNDER CONSTRUCTION 4.16 M SF DELIVERED YTD 3.17 M SF DELIVERED YTD 3.28 M NET ABSORPTION YTD 3.99 M NET ABSORPTION YTD 4.06 M LINCOLN PROPERTY COMPANY / Q2 PHOENIX INDUSTRIAL / 1
LEASING ACTIVITY Leasing activity has ramped up in the Second Quarter as more out of state users continue to move to the Phoenix Market for its significant cost advantages and centralized location. With this increase in new tenant activity and existing users renewing and expanding there is a clear lack of available product in the Phoenix Market. Vacancy rates have now dropped below 7% representing the lowest vacancy rate since 2006. Rental rates have remained steady at $0.59, however the big box industrial sector has seen quarter over quarter rental rate growth now averaging $0.43. As more companies realize the economic and logistical efficiencies that Phoenix offers, the demand for space will continue to increase during the second half of the year. LARGEST LEASES Tenant Blue Buffalo Pet Products Building Opus Goodyear Crossing Campus Square Feet 540,349 Submarket Southwest Phoenix Tenant PillPack Building Eastbank Business Park Square Feet 174,801 Submarket North Airport Tenant Kitchell Kapture Building Southwest Industrial Center Square Feet 110,088 Submarket Tempe LINCOLN PROPERTY COMPANY / Q2 INDUSTRIAL / 2
LEASING TRENDS VACANCY TREND 120,000,000 105,000,000 90,000,000 75,000,000 60,000,000 45,000,000 30,000,000 15,000,000 0 16' Q2 16' Q3 16' Q4 17' Q1 17' Q2 17' Q3 17' Q4 18' Q1 18' Q2 Total Existing SF Total Available SF Vacancy % 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% "With vacancy rates now the lowest since 2006, there is a clear demand for space in the Phoenix Market." RENTAL RATE TREND $0.60 $0.59 $0.59 $0.59 $0.59 $0.59 $0.58 $0.57 $0.56 $0.57 $0.57 $0.57 $0.58 $0.56 $0.55 $0.54 16' Q2 16' Q3 16' Q4 17' Q1 17' Q2 17' Q3 17' Q4 18' Q1 18' Q2 LINCOLN PROPERTY COMPANY / Q2 PHOENIX INDUSTRIAL / 3
SALES & INVESTMENTS Sale activity has increased quarter over quarter, rising nearly 12% from the beginning of the year. In Phoenix, the southwest submarket has been at the center of investment activity due to the high demand of distribution and e- commerce product. It s centralized location and accessibility to other major markets makes Phoenix the ideal location for larger users. Additionally, the completion of the Loop 303 freeway has further increased this connectivity. The Phoenix Industrial Market is seeing cap rates continuing to compress now averaging sub 7% despite rising interest rates. We can expect Phoenix s strong property fundamentals and tenant demand to keep downward pressure on cap rates as we head into the second half of the year. TOP SALES Building Living Spaces / 437,234 RSF Seller Living Spaces Furniture LLC Buyer Cohen Asset Management, Inc. Price 36,330,000 / $83 Building Parc Pinnacle / 311,825 RSF Seller Jackson-Shaw Co Buyer Exeter Property Group Price $30,300,000 / $97 Building Clarius Sky Harbor / 202,673 RSF Seller Evergreen Industrial Buyer Meritex Enterprises Price $23,700,000 / $119 LINCOLN PROPERTY COMPANY / Q2 PHOENIX INDUSTRIAL / 4
DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY With nearly 5.8M SF currently under construction, development activity has increased to keep pace with tenant s demand. A combination of BTS and speculative development projects are underway as developers try to fill the pipeline for users requiring new product. As user s operations continue to evolve, the design and quality of new product has increased to meet these requirements. Features such as 40 clear heights, clear story windows and moment frame designs are now becoming a standard for users, rendering many existing buildings functionally obsolete. LPC s Lincoln Logistics 40 captures the requirements of the modern day user and will be completed this August, bringing over 900k SF on new industrial product to the Goodyear submarket. UNDER CONSTRUCTION Building Lincoln Logistics 40 Developer Lincoln Property Company Square Feet 901,700 Submarket Southwest Market Building TEN - Warehouse 1 Developer Irwin G. Pasternack Square Feet 1,100,000 Submarket Southwest Market Building Tolleson Logistics Center Developer Trammell Crow Company Square Feet 329,400 Submarket Southwest Market LINCOLN PROPERTY COMPANY / Q2 PHOENIX INDUSTRIAL / 5
HISTORICAL ABSORPTION NET ABSORPTION VS DELIVERIES 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,892,263 SF Average Net Absorption 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 16' Q2 16' Q3 16' Q4 17' Q1 17' Q2 17' Q3 17' Q4 18' Q1 18' Q2 Net Absorption Deliveries LINCOLN PROPERTY COMPANY / Q2 PHOENIX INDUSTRIAL / 6
SECOND QUARTER DATA DATA SOURCE TOTAL EXISTING SF TOTAL AVAILABLE SF VACANCY % CBRE 312,699,550 19,970,291 6.39% Colliers 297,337,532 21,441,438 7.21% Costar 337,955,732 23,248,398 6.88% Cushman & Wakefield 313,342,564 22,323,026 7.12% JLL 268,554,095 28,735,288 6.90% Lee & Associates 306,423,024 22,449,895 7.33% LPC Averages 306,052,083 23,028,056 6.97% NET ABSORPTION Q2 3,276,378 2,342,829 2,567,359 2,628,495 1,652,563 2,403,760 2,478,564 DATA SOURCE UNDER CONSTRUCTION COMPLETED Q2 COMPLETED YTD CBRE 6,772,078 2,461,957 3,602,327 Colliers 6,019,463 2,124,859 2,821,696 Costar 6,665,374 2,094,300 2,830,537 Cushman & Wakefield 5,193,161 1,800,000 3,300,000 JLL 5,221,157 1,834,881 2,652,593 Lee & Associates 4,844,891 2,922,454 3,839,482 LPC Averages 5,786,021 2,206,409 3,174,439 ASKING RATES $0.64 $0.58 $0.61 $0.58 $0.53 $0.60 $0.59 FEATURED PROPERTIES Buckeye 75... 02 Freeport Distribution Center... 04 Lincoln Logistics 303... 05 Lincoln Logistics 40... 06 Lincoln Property Company reflects market data averaged from across the market's major brokerage houses. All properties featured in this report are owned and managed by Lincoln Property Company. LINCOLN PROPERTY COMPANY / Q2 PHOENIX INDUSTRIAL / 7
ABOUT US DEVELOP ACQUIRE MANAGE NATIONAL PRESENCE. Local Focus. The Desert West Region includes Arizona, Nevada, Utah and New Mexico, is based in Phoenix and has been operating since 2001. We offer a comprehensive suite of value-added services for our clients ranging from development, construction management, property management and asset management services for office, industrial and retail sectors. Our expertise across a broad spectrum of real estate services enables us to design and execute projects for our clients/partners in support of their business and financial objectives. Desert West Region. LINCOLN PROPERTY COMPANY / Q2 PHOENIX INDUSTRIAL / 9
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT: David R. Krumwiede Executive Vice President 602.912.8877 dkrumwiede@lpc.com John H. Orsak Director of Real Estate 602.912.8879 jorsak@lpc.com Justin M. Arnitz Associate 602.912.8876 jarnitz@lpc.com 3131 E Camelback Rd Suite 318 Phoenix, AZ 85016 www.lpcphx.com