Metro Halifax Housing Market Update Guillaume Neault, Senior Market Analyst, CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION HOUSING OUTLOOK CONFERENCE - HALIFAX Housing market intelligence you can count on
Three key demand factors Population Employment Wages CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 2
Starting with people CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 3
Population by Age Group, Halifax 120,000 1991 2001 2011 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20-24 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55+ years Source: Statistics Canada Census Data CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 4
Total Migration, Halifax, 2006-2011 80,000 60,000 40,000 Total In 78,967 Net +16,749 20,000 0-20,000-40,000-60,000 Total Out 62,218-80,000 Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 5
Net Migration by Age Group, Halifax 2,000 18-24 25-44 45-64 1,500 1,000 500 0-500 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Statistics Canada Tax Filer Data CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 6
Households by Type, by Census, Halifax 60,000 50,000 2001 2006 2011 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 Couples Couples with Children Single Person Source: Statistics Canada, Census CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 7
Moving on to... CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 8
200 Thousands Average Full-Time Employment, Halifax 45 Thousands Average Part-Time Employment, Halifax 180 40 160 35 140 30 120 100 25 80 20 60 15 Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 9
Halifax Employment Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil and Gas Transportation and Warehousing Other Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Information, Culture and Recreation Manufacturing Agriculture Utilities Trade Construction Management, Admin and Other Accommodation and Food Services Health Care and Social Assistance Public Administration Educational Services Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 10
The third key factor... CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 11
Average Earnings Growth vs. Inflation, Halifax 7% 6% Earnings CPI 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (YTD) Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 12
Three key demand factors Immigration remains stable Continues to be primary source of population growth Aging population base Contributing to shifting housing demand Little to modest employment and real wage growth Contributing to stable housing demand CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 13
MLS Market Overview MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 14
MLS Sales 12 Month Moving Average January 2007 to July 2013, Halifax 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 15
Annual MLS Sales, Halifax 8,000 7,000 Avg. ~6,205 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 6,376 6,505 6,233 6,938 6,208 5,860 5,736 5,939 6,046 5,350 5,800 2,000 1,000 - Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS ; Forecast: CMHC MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 16
Year-to-date MLS Sales, By Submarket, Halifax 1,200 1,000 2011 2012 2013 800 600 400 200 0 Halifax City Dartmouth City Bedford- Hammonds Plains Sackville Halifax County Southwest Halifax County East Outside Halifax- Dartmouth Board Fall River- Beaver Bank Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 17
Average MLS Price Growth, Halifax 10% 9% 6.1% average annual growth Growth expected to slow 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 9.0% 7.7% 8.1% 7.2% 6.6% 6.9% 5.9% YTD - $278,317 Up from $161,663 in 2003 3% 2% 1% 0% 3.1% 3.3% 3.7% 1.5% 2.2% Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS ; Forecast: CMHC MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 18
Avg. MLS Price at $278,000 (YTD) Sackville -1.8% / $219,000 Fall River- Beaverbank +3.6% / $301,000 Bedford- Hammonds Plains +0.3% / $352,000 Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association Halifax +5.0% / $341,000 Southwest +1.6% / $265,000 Dartmouth +1.2% / $251,000 Dartmouth East 1% / $210,000 CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 19
Year-to-date MLS Sales, By Price Range, Halifax $500,000 + 2011 $400,000 - $499,999 $300,000 - $399,999 2012 2013 $200,000 - $299,999 $0 - $199,999 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 20
New Homes Market Overview CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 21
Single-Detached Housing Starts, Halifax 1,600 1,400 1,200 Avg. ~1,146 1,000 800 1,483 1,510 600 400 1,216 1,056 1,207 1,180 875 1,039 900 991 865 900 200 - Source and Forecast: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 22
Year-to-date Single-Detached Starts by Submarket Halifax, 2013/2012 Sackville Bedford-Hammonds Plains Fall River - Beaverbank Halifax County Southwest Halifax City 2012 2013 Halifax County East Dartmouth City 0 50 100 150 Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 23
New Single Prices at $412,000 (YTD) Sackville +16% / $480,000 Fall River- Beaverbank 0% / $363,000 Bedford- Hammonds Plains -2% / $548,000 Halifax +5% / $518,000 Dartmouth -8% /$319,000 Southwest -8% / $428,000 Dartmouth East -2% / $302,000 Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 24
Population density: 2006-2011 Sharp increase Increase Slight increase Decline Sharp decline Source: Statistics Canada CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 25
Rental Market Overview CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 26
Rental Apartment Starts and Completions, Halifax 1,800 1,600 Rental Starts Rental Completions 1,400 1,200 Averages 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f) 2014(f) Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 27
3,784 rental apartment starts 2010-12 Bedford & Sackville 1,232 Dartmouth 905 Halifax Mainland 1,053 Halifax Peninsula 587 Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 28
Another 2,500 expected in 2013-14 Bedford & Sackville 600-700 Dartmouth 500-600 Halifax Mainland 400-500 Halifax Peninsula 600-700 Source and Forecast: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 29
Renter Households by Age, Halifax 30% 25% 26.3% 26.4% 20% 18.0% 15% 13.8% 15.4% 10% 5% 0% 18-24 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55+ years Source: Statistics Canada Census Data CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 30
Condo Market Overview CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 31
Annual Apartment Construction, Halifax Condo Apartment Starts Rental Apartment Starts 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Source: CMHC CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 32
Cost of Owning vs. Renting in Halifax Peninsula $2,200 $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Avg 2-Bed Apt Rent Avg Condo Carrying Costs Source: CMHC, Bank of Canada, Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 33
Year-to-date MLS Condo Sales, Halifax 600 YTD Price growth of 4% in 2013 500 $259,000 400 Price growth of 5% in 2012 $249,000 300 200 347 443 372 381 501 433 341 397 372 423 286 100 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Nova Scotia Association of REALTORS MLS is a registered trademark of the Canadian Real Estate Association CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 34
Forecast Immigration remains key to growth Slow economic and employment growth Apartment construction to remain strong Vacancy rate to rise Single family starts and sales slow Price growth to slow CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 35
Thank You Questions? CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 36
Contact Information Guillaume Neault Senior Market Analyst 426-6815 gneault@cmhc.ca CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION - 37