Atlanta Housing Economic Trends August 2013 Note: This information is deemed accurate but not guaranteed. It is intended for the personal use of HBA members only.
Atlanta Employment Pace of Employment Growth 70,000 45,000 20,000-5,000-30,000-55,000 May unemployment was 8.2% -80,000-105,000 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Graph Information: As of 7/13 -Note: Graph reflects Bureau of Labor Statistics annual revision. In some cases, previous months numbers have been greatly altered to reflect new estimates. -Monthly numbers represent annual change from previous year s month Trailing 12 Months -Based off Atlanta MSA (See MSA Definition at end) Source: Bureau of Labor
15,000 Atlanta Permits Single-Family vs. Multi-Family 13,073 Single Family Permits for the trailing 12 months as of 7/13. Highest level since 2/09 10,000 5,000 0 Jun-09 Aug-09 Graph Information: As of 7/13 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 -Updated monthly Based off Trailing 12 month numbers. -Based Atlanta MSA (See MSA Definition at end). Mult i-family Permit s Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Source: Census Bureau Single Family Permit s Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13
Lumber Index $450 $400 $350 $300 Atlanta Building Products Concrete $115 $110 $105 $100 $95 $250 $200 $150 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Lumber Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Concrete Graph Information: As of 8/13 -Lumber Prices based off a composite price per 1,000 board feet (Use Left Axis) -Source: Random Lengths -Concrete data is based off 3000 PSI, per cubic yard (Use Right Axis) -Source: Survey of Atlanta Purchasing Managers Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 $90 $85 $80 $75
Primary Mortgage Market Survey 8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-10 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Fed Funds 30 Year 1 Year Arm Graph Information: As of 8/13 -Based off Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey -30 Year and 1 Year rates are derived from the last week of each quarter (Up until 3/07). Then updated monthly. -Fed Funds rate is based off the last day of each quarter (Up until 3/07). Then updated monthly. Source: FreddieMac.com
ATLANTA HOUSING MARKET Quarterly Starts and Closings (Move-Ins) 11,000 10,000 9,000 Starts continue ahead of closings, many are pre-sales 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,713 +77% 3,000 2,000 1,000-2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 2,886 +33% Quarterly Starts Quarterly Closings Graph Information: As of 2Q13 -Represents all of Metro Atlanta attached and detached housing
FINISHED HOUSES AND MONTHS SUPPLY Inventory is incredibly low yet continues to fall. FV months supply is at equilibrium and expected to dip below normal levels SFD and TH Combined Verified from Field Visits Graph Information: As of 2Q13 -Represents all of Metro Atlanta attached and detached housing -MOS = Months of Supply
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Graph Information: As of 7/13 Based off 6 largest metro counties; distressed sales data included but % of total data unavailable Information contained herein deemed accurate but not guaranteed.
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Graph Information: As of 8/13 Based off 6 largest metro counties; distressed sales data included but % of total unavailable Information contained herein deemed accurate but not guaranteed.
Units per Year Source: FMLS Resale Market Trends closings and inventory 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 Year over Year Closings up +2% Inventory down -18% 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Includes single family detached, townhome and condo Annual Closings (18% TH/Condo closings) Total Inventory (13% TH/Condo)
Months of Supply Source: FMLS FMLS Database Resale Months of Supply Trends 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 8.8 8.3 7.2 8.3 8.5 7.8 6.3 7.1 7.4 6.8 5.8 7.67.6 6.9 6.7 Its still a sellers market 8.4 10.9 10.3 10.3 12.1 13.8 13.2 12.212.3 11.5 11.1 10.6 11 10.9 10.110 9.5 9.3 6 to 7 months was about normal 7.5 5.9 5.3 4.6 3.83.13.2 3.7 0.0 Months of Supply of Resale Inventory (Includes single family detached, townhome and condo)
Definitions Atlanta MSA as defined by the 2000 Census (Updated Dec 2006): Barrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll, Cherokee, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, Dawson, DeKalb, Douglas, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Gwinnett, Haralson, Heard, Henry, Jasper, Lamar, Meriwether, Newton, Paulding, Pickens, Pike, Rockdale, Spalding & Walton Counties Coldwell Banker 6-County Area includes: Fulton, Cobb, Cherokee, Forsyth, Gwinnett, & DeKalb Metrostudy currently gathers data from 22 Metro Atlanta Counties shown to the right:
2013 BDL Schedule January 16: February 20: March 20: April 17: May 15: June 19: August 21: September 18: October 16: November 20: Economic Forecast Roundtable: 2012 Recap and 2013 Expectations with Roger Tutterow Market Update with Metrostudy Consumer Confidence with Roger Tutterow Economic Forecast Roundtable: TBD Market Update with Metrostudy Consumer Confidence with Roger Tutterow Market Update with Metrostudy Consumer Confidence with Roger Tutterow Economic Forecast Roundtable: TBD Market Update with Metrostudy Note: Meetings are held at 8:00 am at the HBA in Tucker
Thanks to Our Sources www.atlantahomebuilders.com David Ellis Dellis@Atlantahomebuilders.com 678-775-1403 www.suntrust.com Courtney Bayer Commercial Real Estate Courtney.Bayer@SunTrust.com 770-442-2214 www.metrostudy.com Eugene James Director, Atlanta Region EJames@metrostudy.com 404.370.9001 x111 www.freddiemac.com Collin Ellingson Managing Broker Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage Midtown Office 404-705-3034 Note: This information is deemed accurate but not guaranteed. It is intended for the personal use of HBA members only.