Brian R. O Connor, MAI, CRE Principal, O Connor Consulting Group, LLC 1
15,000 Housing Cycle: New Owner Demand vs. Renter Demand (Units) (King and Snohomish Counties 1980-2015, Forecast 2016-2018) Renter Demand Peaked at 13,000 Units in 1989. New Owner Housing Demand Peaked in 2004 at 9,300 Units Sold 2010 Renter Demand at 9,849 Units 2014 Renter Demand at 11,446 Units 10,000 1980s Renter Housing Boom Dot-com Spike Owner Housing Boom/ Bubble 5,000 Forecast 0-5,000 2008 Recession -10,000 9/11 Dip Source: NWMLS, OCG Net Apartment Demand New Construction SF & Condo Sales Poly. (Net Apartment Demand) 2
} Pine and 2 nd Developed by Equity Residential. Located at 204 Pine St in the Downtown market area. 300,000 SF tower containing 40 stories that will have 398 units. Street level retail and four levels of above grade and four levels of below grade parking (250 parking stalls). Completion date of approximately June 2017. } Kinects Tower Developed by Security Properties. Located at 1823 Minor Ave in the Belltown market area. It is a 40 story tower containing 356 units. Street level retail including a restaurant with an outside dining area. One of the project amenities is a rooftop indoor pool. Completion date of approximately April 2017. 3
} Tower 12 Developed by Continental Properties. Located at 2001 2nd Ave in the Belltown market area. It is a 34 story tower containing 314 units. Full amenity package including rooftop deck, theater room, fitness center, sauna and hot tub, and a library. 69% of the units have a water view. Completion date of approximately March 2017. Pre-leasing has begun as of February 2017. } Stratus Tower Developed by GID Development Group. Located at 901 Lenora St in the Belltown market area. It is a 41 story tower containing 396 units. Located across the street from Amazon s new South Campus. Completion date of approximately July 2017. 4
} Tilt 49 Developed by Touchstone. Located at 1812 Boren Ave in the Belltown market area. It is a 37 story tower containing 393 units. Also has 11 stories of office space. Completion date of approximately June 2017. } West Edge Tower Developed by Urban Visions (Greg Smith). Located at 1430 2 nd Ave in the Downtown market area. It is a 39 story tower containing 340 units. The project will have a sky bar restaurant on the 8 th floor. Completion date of approximately August 2017. 5
} Clise Developed by Clise Properties. Located at 2202 8 th Ave in the Belltown market area. It is a 40 story tower containing 447 units. The project will have underground parking for 389 parking stalls and 231 bicycles. Completion date of approximately August 2017. } 970 Denny Developed by Holland Partner Group. Located at 970 Denny Way in the Lake Union market area. It is a 40 story tower containing 468 units. The project will have underground parking for 374 parking stalls. There will be 15,098 SF of retail. Completion date of approximately November 2018. 6
} Potala Tower Developed by Binjiang Tower Corp and Molasky Group. Located at 2116 4 th Ave in the Belltown market area. It is a 40 story tower containing 339 apartment units and 142 hotel rooms. The project will have underground parking for 329 parking stalls. The original plans included a rooftop deck with an outdoor movie theater. Completion date of approximately November 2017. } Urban Green Villa Developed by Chainqui Development. Located at 2401 3 rd Ave in the Belltown market area. It is a 12 story building containing 132 apartment units The project will have underground parking for 73 parking stalls. The building will have 4,824 S.F. of retail space. Completion date of approximately March 2019. 7
} Cyrene Developed by Mack Urban. Located at 1301 Western Ave in the Downtown market area. It is a 16 story building containing 169 apartment units The project will have parking for 130 vehicles. The building will have 3,600 S.F. of retail space. Completion date of approximately March 2017. } Greystar site II Developed by Greystar. Located at 413/425 Fairview Ave N in the Lake Union market area. It is a 24 story building containing 239 apartment units. There is also a midrise component housing an additional 181 units. The project is approximately one block from Amazon s main campus. The building will have 10,000 S.F. of retail space. Completion date of approximately November 2018. 8
} Columbia Pacific Tower Developed by Columbia Pacific Advisors. Located at 1001 Broadway in the First Hill market area. It is a 16 story building containing 265 apartment units. The project will have a 40,000 S.F. Whole Foods Market. The building will have 355 underground parking spaces. Completion date of approximately September 2017. 9
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Proposed Seattle Core High Rises Property Name # of Units Type Stories Completion Martin Selig tower/intracorp 45 C 11-story 2020 McFarlane Harrison project 292 A 25-story 2020 Modern Green/Daniels 244 A 26-story 2019 Create World/Woodpartners, 2nd and Stewart 266 A/C 40-story 2020 Denny Center Site Tower, BOSA 442 A 41-story 2020 8th Ave Mixed-use 98 A/C/H 14-story 2019 Cambria Hotel&Suites 50 H/A 15-story 2019 Mack Urban SLU 430 A 43-story 2021 Icon Tower, Laconia 400 A 43-story 2020 Vulcan Eighth 294 A 24-story 2020 80 SLU, Vulcan 80 A/O 14-story 2020 Vulcan (Westlake) 258 A 16-story 2020 Antioch site, HB management 1096 A two 40-story 2021 Vulcan (Valley Site) 218 A/O 16-story 2020 Crescent Height Towers 943 A two 39-story 2021 Tarragon SLU 158 A 15-story 2020 Selig Tower 2 330 O/A 36-story 2021 Clise Tower II, III 638 A two 40-story 2021 Rainier Square 214 H/O/A 12&59-story 2020 Jewel, 5th and Virginia, Douglaston 431 H/A 47-story 2020 11
Proposed Seattle Core High Rises Property Name # of Units Type Stories Completion 2nd and Wall, old McGuire site 283 A 24-story 2020 1800 Terry, Seawest 425 A/C 38-story 2021 Selig Tower 3, Old Federal Reserve Bldg 192 O/A 48-story 2020 Vulcan Discovery Center site 470 A/C/O 41-story 2021 H5 Capital, Old Seattle Times site 421 A 41-story 2021 Altitude/5th and Stewart, Stanford 236 H/C/A 49-story 2021 Nexus 382 Condo 40-story 2020 160 SLU 160 A 24-story 2020 Former Winter Garden Theatre 60 A 15-story 2020 129 Belltown 126 A/H 17-story 2020 Bentall Kennedy/Westbank, 3rd and Virginia 433 A 42-story 2021 Denny Site, Westbank 1050 A two 38-story 2020 Onni Block 1 843 A/C two 24-story 2020 Onni Block 2 1179 A/C two 40-story 2020 4th and Bell 354 A/C 24-story 2021 Da Li Condo Tower 168 C 15-story 2021 Vulcan (Terry Site) 368 A 16-story 2021 4th and Columbia - Crescent heights 893 H/O/A/C 100+ story 2022 N/S Over Track Dev, Civic Square 138 O/A/C 42-story 2022 2nd and Marion (Urban Visions) 160 O/A 60-story 2022 12
Proposed Seattle Core High Rises Property Name # of Units Type Stories Completion Convention Center Expansion 438 A/O 29-story 2023 Former Shilla Restaurant Site 330 A 36-story 2021 5th & Lenora, Vulcan 470 A 40-story 2021 348 SLU, Greystar 348 A 28-story 2021 8th and Pine, Fana 539 A/H 50-story 2021 Holland First Hill Tower 207 A 17-story 2019 Town Hall site, Lennar (North) 565 A two 32-story 2021 Frye Pkg lot, Westbank 440 A two 33-story 2021 Columbia Pacific Senior 237 SH 24story 2020 Alecta-Lowe/Daniels RE/Columbia site 287 A/C 30-story 2021 SFPC site, Benthall-Kennedy/Lennar (South) 300 A four 15-story 2022 Thousand 8 Expansion, 2 towers 256 A 17&15-story 2021 Totals Units Proposed 19,685 13
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Apartment Market Balance History & Forecast - Seattle Core 5,000 10.00% 4,500 9.00% 4,000 6.6% 6.8% 7.3% 8.00% 7.00% 3,500 4.9% 5.8% 5.8% 6.0% 6.00% 5.00% 3,000 2,500 Title 2,000 3.9% 3.0% 2.8% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 2.1% 2.9% 3.5% 1.9% 2.8% 2.5% 3.9% 3.6% 3.3% 2.7% 4.3% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 1,500 0.00% 1,000-1.00% -2.00% 500-3.00% 0-4.00% Direct Demand New Supply Winter Vacancy Rates Summer Vacancy Rate 15
Monthly Expenses for a Condominium Buyer compared with that of an Apartment Renter 625 Square Foot Unit Apartment Renter Condo Buyer with a 30 yr. Mortgage @ 4.25% Interest Monthly Expenses Renter Monthly Expenses 20% Down 10% Down 5% Down Purchase Price $625,000 $625,000 $625,000 Total Down Payment ($125,000) ($62,500) ($31,250) Loan Amount $500,000 $562,500 $593,750 Rent/Month $2,500 Mortgage Payment $2,460 $2,767 $2,921 Utility Charges $60 HOA ($0.82/SF) $779 $779 $779 Parking $150 Taxes $792 $792 $792 Renters Insurance $20 Insurance* $67 $536 $562 Tax Savings ($525) ($591) ($623) Total Monthly Expense $2,730 Total Monthly Expense $3,572 $4,283 $4,430 Total Per SF $4.37 Total Per SF $5.72 $6.85 $7.09 Difference in Cost to Buy $842 $1,553 $1,700 Difference in Cost to Buy (per SF) $1.35 $2.48 $2.72 *Insurance for the Condo buyer includes homeowners insurance and PMI when applicable 16
Monthly Expenses for a Condominium Buyer compared with that of an Apartment Renter 950 Square Foot Unit Apartment Renter Condo Buyer with a 30 yr. Mortgage @ 4.25% Interest Monthly Expenses Renter Monthly Expenses 20% Down 10% Down 5% Down Purchase Price $950,000 $950,000 $950,000 Total Down Payment $190,000 $95,000 $47,500 Loan Amount $760,000 $855,000 $902,500 Rent/Month $3,610.00 Mortgage Payment $3,739 $4,206 $4,440 Utility Charges $60.00 HOA ($0.82/SF) $779 $779 $779 Parking $150.00 Taxes $792 $792 $792 Renters Insurance $20.00 Insurance* $67 $780 $819 Tax Savings ($907) ($1,020) ($1,077) Total Monthly Expense $3,840.00 Total Monthly Expense $4,470 $5,536 $5,753 Total Per SF $4.04 Total Per SF $4.71 $5.83 $6.06 Difference in Cost to Buy $630 $1,696 $1,913 Difference in Cost to Buy (per SF) $0.66 $1.79 $2.01 *Insurance for the Condo buyer includes homeowners insurance and PMI when applicable 17