JANUARY 2018 ALBERTA ECONOMIC & MARKET UPDATE ECONOMIC INDICATORS As Alberta s economy continued to improve in 2017, population growth also started to recover as fewer residents were moving to other provinces. Total net migration into Alberta from all sources increased to 11,106 persons in the third quarter, more than double the number of net newcomers during July to September 2016. Improvements came from net gains from other provinces following two years of net losses in inter-provincial migration. The number of non-permanent residents, many of whom are temporary foreign workers, coming to Alberta also improved thanks to a rebounding labour market. As a result, Alberta saw its strongest third quarter population growth since 2014. As 2017 came to a close, Alberta s labour market continued to gain momentum. Total employment, seasonally adjusted (S/A), across the province increased in December by 26,300 jobs from the previous month. The number of people working (S/A) increased in December by 2.4% year-over-year, for a net gain of 54,900 positions from the last month of 2016. Majority of these jobs were full-time. For people in Alberta who are looking for work, the news continues to improve. Alberta s unemployment rate was 6.9% (S/A) in December, down from 7.3% in November, representing the lowest level since October 2015. The number of EI recipients in Alberta was down by one-third in November and, for the most part, has been trending downward month-over-month for the past year. With the gradual improvement in joblessness, some wage growth has started to appear. Statistics Canada`s average weekly earnings (AWE seasonally adjusted) in Alberta were up in October by 3.5%, representing the strongest year-over-year gain since January 2015. However, the index measuring construction union wage rates in both Calgary and Edmonton has remained unchanged in both cities over the past year. The total value of building permits (unadjusted) issued in Alberta during November increased by 31% from a year earlier to $1.2 billion. Residential permit values increased in November by 21% year-overyear to $667 million. Non-residential intentions grew by 46% from November 2016 to $555 million. After 11 months, permit values were down 1% from the same time in 2016 to $13.4 billion. 1
HOUSING STARTS Total housing starts in Alberta s cities of 10,000+ decreased in December by 14% year-over-year to 1,687 units. On a seasonally adjusted basis, starts in urban areas decreased in December to an annualized rate of 21,104 units (SAAR) from a revised rate of 32,561 units in November. For the year, total starts in urban areas increased in 2017 by 22% from January to December 2016 to 27,624 units. Activity levels in the previous five years averaged near 31,640 units annually. Single-detached: Urban area single-detached starts increased in December by 8.3% from a year earlier to 984 units. Single-family home builders started work on 12,589 units in 2017, up 25.8% from the previous year. All major cities except Medicine Hat report improvements over the previous year. The numbers were bolstered by a major surge in the Fort McMurray (Wood Buffalo) area associated with replacing homes lost in the May 2016 wildfire. Multi-family (semi, row & apartment): Multi-family starts in urban areas declined in December by onethird from year-ago levels to 703 units. Multiple dwelling starts in 2017 nonetheless increased by 19% over the previous year to 15,035 units, with sizable gains reported in Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge and Wood Buffalo. 2
NEW HOME INVENTORY CMHC recorded 2,054 completed and unoccupied single and semi-detached dwellings (including show homes) in Alberta s major cities in December, down slightly from 2,061 units in the previous month but up from 1,800 at the end of 2016. Unabsorbed new townhomes and apartments stood at 2,447 units in December, up from 2,306 units in the preceding month and 2,001 units a year prior. Total inventory, at 4,501 units, was up 18.4% from December 2016. Close to 45% of this inventory represents unabsorbed new apartments in Calgary and Edmonton. RESIDENTIAL (MLS) SALES Residential sales reported by the Alberta Real Estate Association (AREA) increased in December by 19.7% from a year earlier to 3,127 units. Similar to the previous month, some buyers were motivated to complete transactions before year-end when new mortgage rules came into force. The number of homes sold by realtors in Alberta increased in 2017 by 9.6% from January to December of the preceding year to 57,170 units. In the previous five years, sales averaged 61,360 units annually. 3
RESIDENTIAL SALE PRICES The provincial average MLS residential sale price decreased in December by almost 4% year-overyear to $380,316. The national average price increased by 5.7% from December 2016 to $496,532. The average price for homes sold on the MLS in Alberta during 2017 increased by 0.9% from the 2016 annual average to $398,128. MARKET SUMMARY Current Month: December YTD: December Alberta Cities 10,000+ 2017 2016 % ch 2017 2016 % ch Single-family starts 984 909 8.3% 12,589 10,010 25.8% Multi-family starts 703 1,054-33.3% 15,035 12,622 19.1% Total housing starts 1,687 1,963-14.1% 27,624 22,632 22.1% AREA REBs (MLS) Residential sales 3,127 2,612 19.7% 57,170 52,169 9.6% Residential avg. price $380,316 $395,694-3.9% $398,128 $394,576 0.9% Source: CMHC/CREA 4
Note to Readers These market update reports are available monthly for the province of Alberta and its seven major cities. An expanded Alberta report is produced in January, April, July and October which examines economic trends in the previous quarter. The charts are also available in PowerPoint and Excel formats upon request. CMHC defines a housing start as the beginning of construction work on a building, usually when the concrete has been poured for the whole of the footing around the structure, or an equivalent stage where a basement will not be part of the structure. Construction has to be on a new foundation to be counted as a housing start. If a dwelling is built on an existing foundation, it is considered a renovation regardless of the extent of new construction. The survey of unsold new home inventory from CMHC defines an unabsorbed unit as a new home that has finished construction and is available for sale. Show homes are typically counted as part of the unabsorbed inventory. For more information please contact: Richard Goatcher, Economic Analyst, BILD Alberta richard.goatcher@bildalberta.ca 5