Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of REALTORS. Broker/Owner Meeting March 14, PDF Free Download

Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of REALTORS Broker/Owner Meeting March 14, 2007

Tom Renkert Information Services Director MIBOR

PropertyLinx 2 Implementation Time Line February 1-28 March 1 June 30 July 1 August 31 REVIEW PERIOD MLS Committee Training Functionality Testing PROMOTE & DEMO Division Meetings Office Sales Meetings MEMBER TRAINING Presentation style and hands-on training September 5 PropertyLinx 2 Fully Operational Review & Testing Office & Division Demonstrations Member Training

Training begins in July. Watch Fast Track for updates!

REALTOR Political Action Committee (RPAC) Larry Mitchell MPAC Trustee

What If REALTORS never have an opportunity for affordable health care A 17% tax is charged on all real estate transactions Additional fees are charged on housing Property taxes (enough said)

Why PAC s Exist? Committees (PAC) exist because of election funding laws that limit an organization s ability to contribute to political campaigns. Because MIBOR does not use dues dollars to support candidates, the PAC is its vehicle to do so.

What exactly is RPAC? I think I know, but 100% of contributions go to candidates (none is used for administration or staff) A voluntary fund that allows only members of MIBOR to pool money together to endorse candidates. MIBOR members make all decisions on endorsements

Efforts in Washington, DC Affordable health care for REALTORS 1 in 4 REALTORS have no health insurance (1,825 MIBOR members have no insurance) REALTOR groups and agents should be able to band together to negotiate lower premiums Can you put a price on the ease of mind for health care?

Efforts in Indiana Defeated a 17% transfer tax Reducing Indiana s reliance on property taxes. Fighting a $40 fee/tax on housing

Efforts at Local Level Zoning in Montgomery County Sign Ordinance Deregulation Private Property Rights Economic Development Recruiting high paying jobs Building roads and infrastructure Smart growth

Brokers: RPAC Needs Your Leadership 1. Talk about RPAC to your agents 2. Make a $99 contribution 3. Help us reach our $109,000 goal by June 30 th

Why? What if we didn t participate?

Tom Renkert Information Services Director MIBOR

Direct Soliciting by Seller New Statement of NAR MLS Policy related to types of listings that will appear on MIBOR website publications such as REALTOR.com and MIBOR.com.

Direct Soliciting by Seller Is there a for sale by owner or other sign or notice on the property indicating that the seller is soliciting direct contact from buyers? If Yes, MIBOR will not include property in MIBOR website publications such as MIBOR.com & REALTOR.com All listings will be available in IDX database. Brokers independently make choices for which listings will appear on their site.

David Berson Vice President & Chief Economist Fannie Mae

Economic, Housing & Mortgage Market Outlook March 14, 2007 David W. Berson Vice President & Chief Economist

What You Want to Know: We expect economic growth modestly below trend in 2007. The Fed has probably finished tightening, and may ease later this year. Long-term rates should be little changed from current levels. Home sales should drop again in 2007, but the worst declines are likely behind us. Home price gains are slowing sharply, with price declines in some areas. Purchase originations should drop in 2007, while refinancings are projected to slip modestly.

GDP Growth At a Slightly Below-Trend Pace 8% 6% Trend Growth 3.0-3.5% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Q1:90 Q1:92 Q1:94 Q1:96 Q1:98 Q1:00 Q1:02 Q1:04 Q1:06 Q1:08 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Fannie Mae forecast

Payroll Employment Growth: National vs. Indiana 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Year/Year National Indiana Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Payroll Employment Growth: National vs. Indianapolis 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Year/Year Indianapolis National Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consumer Sentiment Will the Bounce in Sentiment Hold? Index 66Q1 = 100 190 180 170 Good Time to Buy = Good Time Bad Time +100 Good Time to Buy a Home (left axis) 120 110 160 100 150 140 90 130 80 120 110 Consumer Sentiment (right axis) 70 100 Jan- 90 Jan- 91 Jan- 92 Jan- 93 Jan- 94 Jan- 95 Jan- 96 Jan- 97 Jan- 98 Jan- 99 Jan- 00 Jan- 01 Jan- 02 Jan- 03 Jan- 04 Jan- 05 Jan- Jan- 06 07 60 Source: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey

Inflation* Will Core Inflation Drop Into the Fed s Target Range? 7% 6% Year-Ago Percent Change History Forecast 5% Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Q1:07 Q1:08 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% *Consumer Price Index Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Core Rate CPI

Federal Funds Rate Fed Done for Now May Ease Later in 2007 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% History Forecast Q1:90 Q1:92 Q1:94 Q1:96 Q1:98 Q1:00 Q1:02 Q1:04 Q1:06 Q1:08 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Fannie Mae forecast

11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Long-Term Interest Rates Not Much Change 30-Year FRM 10-Year Treasury History Forecast Q1:90 Q3:91 Q1:93 Q3:94 Q1:96 Q3:97 Q1:99 Q3:00 Q1:02 Q3:03 Q1:05 Q3:06 Q1:08 Source: Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Board, Fannie Mae forecast

Homeownership Rate No Longer Rising as Affordability Falls 70% 69% 68% 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% Q1:80 Q1:82 Q1:84 Q1:86 Q1:88 Q1:90 Q1:92 Q1:94 Q1:96 Q1:98 Q1:00 Q1:02 Q1:04 Q1:06 Source: Bureau of the Census

1.4 Millions of Units New Home Sales Down Again in 2007 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: Bureau of the Census, Fannie Mae forecast

New Home Inventories Still High Suggests Weakness in Prices Thousands 600 550 500 Months Supply at Current Rate (right axis) 450 400 350 300 250 Homes for Sale at End of Month (left axis) 200 Months 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan:1990 Jan:1991 Jan:1992 Jan:1993 Jan:1994 Jan:1995 Jan:1996 Jan:1997 Jan:1998 Jan:1999 Jan:2000 Jan:2001 Jan:2002 Jan:2003 Jan:2004 Jan:2005 Jan:2006 Jan:2007 Source: Bureau of the Census

2,400 2,100 1,800 1,500 1,200 900 600 300 0 Thousands of Units Housing Starts Down Again in 2007 Multifamily Single-family 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: Bureau of the Census, Fannie Mae forecast

7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Millions of Units Existing Home Sales Down Again in 2007 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Source: National Association of Realtors, Fannie Mae forecast

3200 2700 2200 1700 1200 Existing Single-Family Home Inventories Inventories Still High Thousands Months Supply At Current Sales Rate (right axis) Homes for Sale at End of Month (left axis) Months 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan:1990 Jan:1991 Jan:1992 Jan:1993 Jan:1994 Jan:1995 Jan:1996 Jan:1997 Jan:1998 Jan:1999 Jan:2000 Jan:2001 Jan:2002 Jan:2003 Jan:2004 Jan:2005 Jan:2006 Jan:2007 Source: National Association of Realtors

Dec-05 Sep-06 Jun-04 Mar-05 Investor Share Falling But Still High 25% 20% 15% 10% Investor & Second Home 5% 0% Investor Sep-91 Jun-92 Mar-93 Dec-93 Sep-94 Jun-95 Mar-96 Dec-96 Sep-97 Jun-98 Mar-99 Dec-99 Sep-00 Jun-01 Mar-02 Dec-02 Sep-03 Note: Shares are based upon number of Prime Conventional Conforming Purchase loans Source: LoanPerformance September 2006 data

14% 12% 10% 8% 6% Home Price Gains Slowing Sharply, Will They Decline? Year-Ago Percent Change Purchase Only House Price Index House Price Index 4% 2% 0% Q1:87 Q1:89 Q1:91 Q1:93 Q1:95 Q1:97 Q1:99 Q1:01 Q1:03 Q1:05 Source: OFHEO

OFHEO Home Price Index: National vs. Indiana 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Year/Year National Indiana Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

OFHEO Home Price Index: National vs. Indianapolis 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Year/Year National Indianapolis Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight

Five-Year House Price Growth, Single Family 2001 Q4 2006 Q4 Canada Mexico Below 25% 25% - 50% 50% - 75% 75% - 100% Above 100% Source: Fannie Mae

One-Year House Price Growth, Single Family 2005 Q4 2006 Q4 Canada Mexico Source: Fannie Mae Below 0% 0% - 5% 5% - 10% 10% - 15% Above 15%

Serious Delinquency Rates National vs. Indiana 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Indiana National Source: Mortgage Bankers Association *90 days past due and foreclosures started

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-04 Jan-05 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Index, 16-Mar-90 =100, SA MBA Purchase Index Up, Down, or Sideways? March 2 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America Weekly Mortgage Application Survey

Jan-07 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Index, 16-Mar-90 =100, SA MBA Refinance Index Stable March 2 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America Weekly Mortgage Application Survey

Percent 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 ARM Share of Mortgage Applications* Falling March 2 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 *By number of loans Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America Weekly Mortgage Application Survey

4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Mortgage Originations Pulled Down by Purchases Billions of Dollars Refis Purchase 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Source: HUD, Fannie Mae estimates (1998 forward), Fannie Mae forecast

16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Mortgage Debt Outstanding Finally Slowing Year/Year Percent Change Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Q1:07 Q1:08 Source: Federal Reserve Board, Fannie Mae forecast

Things to Take Away: Economic activity slightly below trend through 2007. Odds of a downturn are still low. Fed tightening likely done easing later in 2007? Long-term rates should be little changed. Housing activity down again in 2007, but by less than in 2006. Regional home price weakness could cause a national price decline. Originations should fall in 2007. Pulled down by purchases, with refis down a bit.

Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts and other views of Fannie Mae's Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis (EMMA) group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the EMMA group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views published by the EMMA group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.

Metropolitan Indianapolis Board of REALTORS. Broker/Owner Meeting March 14, 2007