FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Contact: Christine Windle 703-777-2468 Dulles Area Association of REALTORS cwindle@dullesarea.com Sponsored by: Access National Bank Tom Ciolkosz, (703) 871-1045, tciolkosz@accessnationalbank.com Patty Foster, 703-871-1014, pfoster@accessnational.com May 2016 Loudoun County Market Trends Report Homes selling twice as fast as 2015 with re-emergence of seller s market Ashburn, VA (June 22, 2016) The following analysis of the Loudoun County, Virginia housing market has been prepared for the Dulles Area Association of REALTORS based on analysis of MRIS multiple listing data by ShowingTime RBI. Overview Loudoun County s median sales prices increased for the 9 th consecutive month in May, climbing 2.5 percent to $450,000. This marks a 43 percent appreciation versus the $315,000 low of April 2009. Closed sales are back up after a 2 month recess this spring, up 11.3 percent over May 2015. New listing activity decreased versus last year, with the 1,032 homes added in May, down 5.8 percent from May 2015. Inventories continue to shrink as purchase activity picks up while listing activity declines. The 1,822 active listings at month s end are 17.9 percent less than last year and represent 3.5 months of supply. Half the homes sold in May s seller s market were listed for 11 days or less, down 45 percent as seen in May 2015 when the market was more balanced with 4.7 months of supply. There are only 1.8 months of townhouse supply available, driving the segment s median DOM down to only 8 days. Competition among buyers has driven the average amount of original list price received at sale up to 98.2 percent, higher than the 97.8 percent average SP to OLP ratio recorded last May. Loudoun County Home Prices and Sales Median Sales Price Closed Sales May-16 May-15 YoY May-16 May-15 YoY 20148, Ashburn $530,000 $575,000-7.8% 83 81 2.5% 20132, Purcellville $499,000 $497,500 0.3% 29 26 11.5% 20176, Leesburg $471,000 $480,000-1.9% 95 79 20.3% 20147, Ashburn $464,500 $434,500 6.9% 124 108 14.8% Loudoun County $450,000 $439,000 2.5% 691 621 11.3% 20165, Sterling $442,500 $435,000 1.7% 64 53 20.8% 20105, Aldie $435,000 $432,500 0.6% 45 46-2.2% 20152, Chantilly $430,000 $437,500-1.7% 55 54 1.9% 20175, Leesburg $407,500 $403,995 0.9% 76 58 31.0% 20164, Sterling $339,000 $342,500-1.0% 64 53 20.8% 1
Home Prices May s median sales price of $450,000 represents an increase of 2.5 percent versus last year, marking the 9th consecutive month with price gains. The year-to-date median of $435,999 is now 2.6 percent higher than the $425,000 level recorded over the first five months of 2015. Condos ($258,000; -4.4 percent) and townhouses ($395,000; +1.2 percent) both saw year-over-year decreases in median price levels. The detached segment had a median price of $589,450, which was up 2.8 percent vs. May 2015. Median price levels were up in six of the seven Loudoun ZIP codes with 20+ sales, led by a 6.9 percent gain in Ashburn s 20148. Ashburn is an area with lots of activity, showing that the increase in Median Sales Price is not a fluke. Round Hill 20141 had the highest change in Median Sales Price of any zip code, but only had 11 closed sales during the month of May. Sterling s 20164 remains the most affordable ZIP code in Loudoun, with a Median Sales Price of $339,000, down 1% from May 2015. 2
Closed Sales There were 691 closed sales in Loudoun, seventy more than last May, The highest May tally recorded over the last decade. The 691 sales topped the five-year May average by 99 sales, or 1 percent, and the ten-year average by 148 sales, or 27.2 percent. The 2,515 cumulative sales through May are 6.8 percent more than the 2,359 sold over the same four months in 2015. Of the ZIP codes analyzed, Leesburg s 20175 has had the largest increase in year-todate sales versus last year at +23.1 percent. Sales increased in seven of the ten Loudoun ZIP codes analyzed, led by a 31.0 percent spike in Leesburg s 20175, where sales increased from 76 to 58. Sterling s 20164 saw sales dip by 7.6 percent, or 5 sales, from April 2015 while Aldie s 20105 has 1 fewer sales than last year, a decrease of 2.1 percent. 3
New Pending Sales The 821 new pending sales in May marked the highest total for any month since 2005. Contract activity in May was up 9.5 percent over May 2015 and topped the five-year average by 100 pending sales, or 8.9 percent. New pending sales of detached homes remained even with May 2015 at 392, townhouse contracts rose by 16.4 percent to 313. The condo segment saw a 30.3 percent increase, up by 27 contracts to 116. New pending sales were up in nine of the eleven ZIP codes analyzed, led by a 43.2 percent spike in Aldie s 20105 and a 21.2 percent increase in Sterling s 20164. Purcellville s 20132 new pending sales were down 25.0 percent to 39 and Leesburg s 20176 remained flat at 104 properties. These were the only two zip codes with no increases in activity versus May 2015. 4
New Listing Activity New listing activity in May decreased versus last year by 5.8 percent, the second year of year-over-year decreases after the bumps seen in 2013 and 2014. Despite missing last May s total, the 1,032 new listings exceeded the 5-year average of 997 listings by 3.5 percent, and was below the 10-year average of 927 by 11.3 percent. The detached segment saw an 11.7 percent decrease in listing activity with 73 fewer new listings, while there were only nine fewer townhouses listed than last May, down 2.8 percent, and the condo segment squeaked out one more listings than last year which resulted in a 0.7 percent increase. New listing activity increased versus last year in two of the twelve ZIP codes analyzed, led by a 9.0 percent spike in Ashburn s 20147 and a 4.5 percent increase in Sterling s 20165. The year-over-year decrease in new listing activity county-wide was driven primarily by sharp declines in Aldie s 20105 which was down 29.3 percent to 70 listings, and Great Falls 22066 which had a decrease of 25.0 percent to 54 listings. 5
Month s End Inventories Active inventory at May s end is now 17.9 percent lower than the same point last year, with 398 fewer listings for sale. This marks the first year of year-over-year decreases since 2013, however current inventory remains 3.6 percent higher than the five-year average in May. The 1,822 active listings are 34.6 percent higher than the 1,353 active listings in May 2013 when Loudoun inventories hit a 10-year low. Inventories are down in fifteen of the seventeen Loudoun ZIP codes studied, led by a 49.6 percent drop in Sterling s 20164. Ashburn has seen significant declines in available inventory, with a 30.2 percent decrease in 20148 and a 19.7 percent dip in 20147. The 1,822 active listings headed into May represent only 3.5 months of supply based on the average monthly sales pace over the past 12 months. Loudoun is again in seller s market territory, as this is a notable decline compared to the 4.7 months of supply available in the balanced market of May 2015. 6
Average Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio (SP to OLP) In this seller s market, Loudoun s sellers received an average 98.2 percent of original list price in May, 0.4 points more than last year and the second highest May mark in the last decade. The county s average sales price to original list price ratio (SP to OLP) was slightly higher than the fiveyear May average of 98.0 and more than 1.5 points higher than the ten-year May average of 96.7. Average SP to OLP ratios increased in six of the nine ZIP codes analyzed, with Sterling s 20164 seeing the largest increase of 1.5%. Sterling s 20165 was up.7 percent as well. Sterling s 20104 had the highest average SP to OLP ratio in the county as well, at 98.9 percent, matched by Aldie s 20105. May sellers in Purcellville s 20132 received the lowest percentage of asking price on average at 96.1 percent, down 1/10 th of percent from last year. 7
Days-On-Market (DOM) Homes sold significantly faster than last year, with half of the May sales being listed for 11 days or less. This cut last May s median DOM of 20 days nearly in half. This is the fifth consecutive month in 2016 s seller s market where DOM levels decreased from the previous year. The 11-day median DOM was four days lower than the five-year May average of 15 days and over two weeks better than the ten-year May average of 26 days. Half the townhouses sold in May were on the market for eight days or less, tied with April 2016 for the lowest median DOM in the last 10-years. The median DOM for condos was 15 days, down 53.1 percent of the May 2015 median DOM of 32. Detached homes had a median DOM of 14, down 33.3 percent from May 2015. Days-on-market levels improved all ten of ZIP codes analyzed, led by a 26-day drop in the lower volume Aldie s 20105, which had a median DOM of 10 days. Homes sold fastest in the ZIP codes of Sterling, Ashburn and Chantilly, with median DOM levels ranging from only three to ten days. 2016 ShowingTime RBI. Data Source: MRIS. Statistics calculated 6/4/2016 8
About the Dulles Area Association of REALTORS Founded in 1962, the Dulles Area Association of REALTORS works to safe guard and advance the mutual interests of the public, property owners, and real estate professionals for real estate related matters. About ShowingTime RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI) ShowingTime RBI is a primary source of real estate data, analytics and business intelligence for real estate professionals in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Monthly reports for all jurisdictions in the MRIS region, along with interactive charts and graphics, can be found at http://www.getsmartcharts.com/statistics. RBI is the only company in the Mid-Atlantic region that provides timely, online access to statistical information directly from the MRIS MLS. 9