Rural Housing Challenges in Tennessee: Socio-economic Drivers, Problems and Opportunities Presented at: 19 th Annual Rural Development Conference April 28, 2014 Hulya Arik, PhD Economist Tennessee Housing Development Agency
Rural Housing Challenges in Tennessee 1. Socio-economic Drivers a. Demographics b. Economic Conditions 2. Problems a. Availability b. Quality c. Affordability 3. Opportunities
Drivers Tennessee Rural Population 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 Nearly Flat Rural Share 1,000,000-1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 Rural Urban USDA Economic Research Service Updated April 4, 2014
UNDER 5 5 TO 9 10 TO 14 15 TO 19 20 TO 14 25 TO 34 35 TO 44 45 TO 54 55 TO 59 60 TO 64 65 TO 74 75 TO 84 85 AND OLDER 2% 1% 4% 5% 6% 7% 6% 7% 6% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 9% 11% 14% 13% 14% 15% 15% Drivers Age Cohorts in Rural Tennessee Rural Suburban and Urban The Housing Assistance Council, Updated 2010.
How do population growth dynamics affect housing problems in rural Tennessee? Population loss significantly impacts rural areas housing stock. As populations decline, homes become vacant and even simple repairs are not completed on time. Absentee homeownership increases. Older residents are usually unable to maintain their homes. As house values decline with delayed repairs, obtaining mortgages and home rehabilitation loans become more difficult to obtain.
Drivers Educational Attainment in Tennessee (Persons 25 years and older) 50% 40% 41.1% 30% 20% 21.6% 14.4% 30.4% 28.6% 23.5% 13.8% 26.6% 10% 0% Not completing high school Completing high school only Completing some college Completing college Rural Urban USDA Economic Research Service Updated April 4, 2014
Economic Drivers Rural Industry 25% 20% 20% 22% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 3% 0% 9% 6% 8% 4% 2% 12% 11% 7% 6% 3% 1% 6% 5% 6% 11% 8% 13% 6% 5% 5% 4% Rural Urban The Housing Assistance Council, Updated 2010.
Economic Drivers Per Capita $45,000 $40,000 $40,184 $41,107 $35,000 $30,000 $30,361 $30,902 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $- 2011 2012 Rural Urban USDA Economic Research Service Updated Feb 20, 2014
Economic Drivers Poverty in Rural Tennessee 25% Rural Urban 21% 20% 19% 18% 15% 15% 15% 16% 17% 13% 10% 5% 0% 1979 1989 1999 2012 USDA Economic Research Service Updated Feb 20, 2014
Economic Drivers Distribution 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Rural Tennessee: Distribution Less than $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 371,000 households (nearly 50%) have income less than $35,000 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $199,999 ACS 2006-2010 Data tabulated by HAC $200,000 or More 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Urban Tennessee: Distribution Less than $10,000 $10,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $24,999 $25,000 to $34,999 $35,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 to $199,999 $200,000 or More
Rural Housing Problems-Availability Housing Stock in Rural Tennessee 80% 70% 71.70% 71.60% 60% 50% 40% Urban Rural 30% 20% 10% 0% 21.90% 18.00% 10.20% 6.40% 0.03% 0.10% Single Family Multifamily & Townhomes Mobile Homes Boats, RV, Vans, Etc. HAC tabulations from ACS 2006-2010 data.
Rural Housing Problems-Availability Housing Occupancy and Vacancy in Rural Tennessee 1,800,000 1,600,000 89.78% Urban Rural 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 85.1% Relatively more vacancy in rural Tennessee. 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 HAC tabulations from ACS 2006-2010 data. 10.22% 14.9% 0.95% Occupied Housing Units Vacant Housing Units Vacant Housing Units: Seasonal, Recreational or Occasional Use 4.6%
Rural Housing Problems-Availability Owner or Renter Occupied? 1,200,000 67.72% Urban Rural 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 73.60% 32.28% 400,000 200,000 26.40% 0 Owner-Occupied Housing Units HAC tabulations from ACS 2006-2010 data. Renter-Occupied Housing Units
Rural Housing Problems-Quality Housing Stock in Rural Tennessee by Age 45% 40% 35% 33.95% 34.30% Urban Rural 39.12% 37.00% Relatively older housing units in rural Tennessee 30% 25% 20% 15% 15.44% 15.10% 11.50% 13.50% 10% 5% 0% Built 1990 or Later Built 1980 to 1989 Built 1950 to 1979 Built 1949 or Earlier HAC tabulations from ACS 2006-2010 data.
Rural Housing Problems-Quality Substandard Housing? 6% 5% Urban Rural 37,167 4% 66,487 3% 2% 1% 8,183 5,226 12,616 5,852 0% Occupied Units Lacking Complete Plumbing Occupied Units Lacking Complete Kitchen Occupied Units Without Telephone Service HAC tabulations from ACS 2006-2010 data.
Rural Housing Problems-Quality Overcrowding? 1.76% 1.75% 1.74% Crowded Units (with 1.01 or More Occupants Per Room) as Percent of All Occupied Units 29,256 Units Urban Rural 1.73% 1.72% 1.71% 1.70% 13,485 Units 1.69% 1.68% 1.67% HAC tabulations from ACS 2006-2010 data.
Rural Housing Problems-Affordability Cost-Burdened Units-Owner-Occupied Units? Owner-Occupied with Mortgage Cost-Burden Owner-Occupied 80% 70% 68.38% 26% 26% 287,126 Owner- Occupied 60% 50% 53.70% 46.30% 25% 25% 40% 30% 20% 10% 31.62% 24% 24% 23% 23% 22% 129,089 Owner- Occupied Units 0% Owner Occupied Units With Mortgage Owner Occupied Units With No Mortgage 22% Urban Cost Burdened (Selected Monthly Owner Costs 30% or More of ) Rural HAC tabulations from ACS 2006-2010 data.
Rural Housing Problems-Affordability Cost-Burdened Units-Renter-Occupied Units and Overall Cost-Burden Units? Cost-Burden Renter-Occupied 48% 48% 47% 80,307 Renters 35% 30% 25% 209,396 All Units Cost-Burdened 532,402 47% 20% 46% 46% 245,276 Renter- Occupied 15% 10% 89,654 233,605 45% 5% 45% Renter Occupied Units: Cost Burdened Unit (Rent 30% or More of ) HAC tabulations from ACS 2006-2010 data. 0% Cost Burdened (Selected Monthly Costs 30% or More of ) Rural Urban Extreme Cost Burdened (Selected Monthly Costs 50% or More of )
Other Rural Housing Problems: Rural Homelessness Different Responses than Urban Homelessness Living in unsafe housing conditions Staying with relatives Moving between Difficult to Address Fewer shelters Little community awareness Less government aid due to technical definitions
Opportunities and Impacts: Rehab and Affordable Housing Preservation Programs for Rural Housing Stock Repair and Rehabilitation Loan and Grant Remove health and safety hazards Accommodate home for household members with disabilities Available for homeowners 62 years of age or older. THDA s Housing Trust Fund can be used in conjunction. Housing Preservation Grants Used to repair rented housing, rental properties, or co-ops Housing must be provided to low-income families Available to landlords, rental property owners, state agencies, and local governments
Guaranteed Loans Opportunities and Impacts: USDA Programs for Homeowners Help low-income households currently without adequate housing. Used to purchase, build, or repair a home. THDA has low interest rate mortgage loan programs. Housing Site Loans Provide Financing for low- and moderate-income families Used to purchase and develop housing sites
Opportunities and Impacts: USDA Programs for Rental Housing Rental Housing Loans Helps negotiate lower building costs for construction companies Used to purchase, build, or repair multi-family facilities Rental Assistance Program Provides additional rent support for multiple tenants Contracted for 5 years Available to tenants with low- and very low-income
Opportunities and Impacts: Efforts to help low-income households in rural areas of Tennessee ensure that they live in safe, sound affordable homes. In addition to the impact on individuals and families, the activities to further the affordable housing in rural areas improve the economic conditions by creating New jobs Wages and salaries Business revenues Improved tax base
Economic Impact of Rehabilitating 100 Multifamily Housing Units on Tennessee Economy Model used: IMPLAN
Business Revenue The total contribution of rehabilitating 100 multifamily housing units to Tennessee s economy is estimated at $6.3 million in 2014. Of this total, $3.5 million is directly injected into the economy. Every $100 of rehab activities generates an additional $79 in business revenues. Wages and Salaries Rehabilitating 100 multifamily units generates $2.2 million in wages and salaries in 2014. Every $100 of personal income produces an additional $77 of wages and salaries in the local economy. Employment / Job Creation Rehabilitating 100 multifamily units creates 52 jobs in 2014. Every 100 jobs created by rehabilitation of 100 multifamily units, primarily in the construction sector, generates 76 additional jobs throughout the local economy.
Thank you! Questions?
Works Cited Economic Research Service. "State Fact Sheets: Tennessee." United States Department of Agriculture, 4 Apr. 2014. Web. 06 Apr. 2014. http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/statefact-sheets/state-data.aspx?statefips= 47&StateName=Tennessee#.Uzt0BPldWSo Housing Assistance Council. Rural Homelessness. 2008. Web. 8 Apr. 2014. http://homeless.samhsa.gov/resourcefiles/neqkwasx.pdf Rural Development. "Multi-Family Housing Loans and Grants." United States Department of Agriculture, 20 Mar. 2014. Web. 10 Apr. 2014. http://www.rurdev.usda.gov/hmf_mfh.html. Rural Development. "Single Family Housing Loans and Grants." United States Department of Agriculture, 20 Mar. 2014. Web. 10 Apr. 2014. http://www.rurdev.usda.gov/hsf_sfh.html. "The Rural Data Portal." Taking Stock: Rural People, Poverty, and Housing in the 21st Century. The Housing Assistance Council, Dec. 2012. Web. 10 Apr. 2014. http://www.ruraldataportal.org.