Manhattan Market Report Q 04 by the numbers +.6% StreetEasy Condo Price Index (QuarteroverQuarter) 0.% StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast (MonthoverMonth) 6.0% Total (QuarteroverQuarter) 6.0% Number of Pending Sales (Quarterover Quarter) days Median Time on Market $885,000 $,6 Median Price per Square Foot decline in Q led by significant dropoff in Manhattan coop listings The Manhattan real estate market settled into a stable growth mode in the third quarter of this year, with the median sale price rising less than one percentage point since last quarter and 4. percent from last year. However, the third quarter failed to add inventory to lift the market out of its persistent supply slump. The number of homes listed for sale in Manhattan during the third quarter fell 6.0 percent from the second quarter in an anticipated dropoff in activity after the spring season. Available homes for sale remain in historically short supply, with inventory. percent below last year s level and 5.9 percent below Manhattan s 5year quarterly average. The continuing decline in inventory is led by a precipitous dropoff in the number of available coop units, which declined 0.6 percent from last year. Conversely, the number of available condo and townhouse units increased 8.0 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively. For the first time in 4 years, there were more condo units available on the market throughout the quarter than coop units. Despite the supply shortage, buyers appear to be taking more time to consider purchasing. Homes spent significantly more time on the market, rising to a median time of days from just days in the previous quarter. While days is historically a low number, it is a significant adjustment from the frenzied pace experienced in the first two quarters of 04. The share of homes priced in the bottom two price tiers continues to shrink. Nearly in homes listed for sale during the third quarter was priced above $.9 million, led in part by the growing share of inventory made up of condo units which generally are more expensive than coop units. Fewer than in 4 homes listed for sale were priced in the bottom tier. Price wariness among buyers seen in the third quarter will slow price growth and lengthen days on market in the coming months, condo price growth is predicted to ease modestly (0. percent) in October according to the StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast. StreetEasy is pleased to present the Quarterly Manhattan Real Estate Market Report, an indepth analysis of New York City s largest and most comprehensive database of listings and sales. To see more analysis on Manhattan real estate trends from StreetEasy, visit our market report page at: http://streeteasy.com/market/reports
Manhattan Quarterly Market Report Q 04 StreetEasy Condo Price Index Condo inventory posts healthy increase in Q, condo price appreciation moderates Manhattan condo prices in the third quarter were 9.6 percent above yearago levels while posting a.6 percent increase from the close of the second quarter, according the StreetEasy Condo Price Index (SECPI). Manhattan buyers were helped this quarter by a healthy 8.0 percent increase in condo inventory from yearago levels, which has helped slow condo price appreciation. The Downtown condo market continues to outperform the rest of the borough with a yearoveryear price growth of 0.7 percent. The September SECPI value in Downtown is 66, followed by Upper West Side (48), Midtown (40), and Upper East Side (). The Midtown condo market experienced a price depreciation during the third quarter, posting a. percent decline between the close of the second and third quarters. The positive momentum in inventory growth and increased time on market will lead a modest price depreciation in October, according to the StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast, which predicts a 0. percent reduction in condo prices. +.6 % (8) StreetEasy Condo Price Index September 04 (QuarteroverQuarter) 0. % (8) StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast October 04 (MonthoverMonth) 00 50 Previous market peak September 007 StreetEasy Condo Price Index Value 00 50 00 Previous market trough November 009 50 Manhattan Downtown Midtown Upper East Upper West 0 995 996 997 998 999 000 00 00 00 004 005 006 007 008 009 00 0 0 0 04
Manhattan Quarterly Market Report Q 04 Market Summary (quarteroverquarter) Q Q 04 Q 04 0 (yearoveryear) Total Units Available 0,9,6 6.0%,05.%.8%.9% 7.% 7.6% 9.6% 8.4%.6% 46.6% 44.5% Median Asking Price $,75,000 $,00,000 6.% $,07,50 9.0% Median Asking Price per sq. ft. $,7 $,0.% $,96 4.8% Share of Listings w/ Price Increase 6.4% 6.7% 7.% Share of Listings w/ Price Cut 0.9%.9% 9.% Recorded Sales Total Sales,955,80 4.% 4,80 7.7% $885,000 $880,000 0.6% $850,000 4.% Total,647,579 6.0%,975.0% Median Days on Market 6 5 68 40 55 69 45 6, sales, and pending sales data includes condo, coop, and townhouse listings. Sales data is based on sale transactions recorded by the New York City Department of Finance as of October 5, 04. This may not represent all sale transactions for Q 04. Fewer than in 4 homes listed for sale in Q were priced below $65,000. The share of Manhattan inventory priced in the least expensive tier in the third quarter declined slightly from the second quarter to.8 percent. Homes in this price category were the slowest to sell across all segments (condos, coops, and townhomes) suggesting Manhattan buyers are searching for value rather than rushing for the least expensive options. Q 04 Q 04 Total by Price Tier.8% 7.6%.6%.9% 9.6% 46.6% 7.% 8.4% 44.5% Q 0 How is inventory measured? Quarterly inventory is the sum of all condo, coop, and townhouse units that were available on StreetEasy at any point during the quarter. This method provides the most comprehensive picture of units that were available to buyers. How is days on market measured? The number of days from the original listing on StreetEasy to when it enters contract. After a buyer enters contract on a unit, it is pulled from the market and is no longer available to other buyers creating a logical end point to days on market. Quarterly inventory may not add up to 00% due to rounding. Price tier shares are based on total number of condo, coop, and townhouse units available during each quarter. For Q 04, the bottom tier is comprised of units priced up to $65,000; middle tier are units priced between $65,000 and $.9 million; top tier is units priced above $.9 million.
Manhattan Quarterly Market Report Q 04 Share of inventory priced in the bottom tier continues to shrink, highlyconcentrated in Upper Manhattan neighborhoods. Neighborhood by Price Tier All Downtown Battery Park City Chelsea Chinatown Civic Center East Village Financial District Flatiron Gramercy Park Greenwich Village Little Italy Lower East Side Nolita Soho Tribeca West Village All Midtown Central Park South Kips Bay Midtown Midtown South Midtown West Murray Hill Roosevelt Island Sutton Place Turtle Bay All Upper East Side Carnegie Hill Lenox Hill Upper Carnegie Hill Upper East Side Yorkville All Upper West Side Lincoln Square Manhattan Valley Morningside Heights Upper West Side All Upper Manhattan Central Harlem East Harlem Hamilton Heights Inwood Manhattanville Washington Heights West Harlem 0% 40% 60% 80% 00% Downtown on the (relative) cheap. Among neighborhoods in the downtown market, Civic Center consistently holds the greatest share of homes listed in the bottom price tier, with 67 percent of listings priced below $65,000 in the third quarter. Notsolittle price tags in Little Italy. Little Italy has the distinction of being the Manhattan neighborhood with the highest concentration of toptier homes available. 00 percent of homes (8 listings) were priced above $.5 million in Little Italy. Bottomtier homes were heavily concentrated in Upper Manhattan Homebuyers looking for more affordable options should look in neighborhoods in Upper Manhattan, where nearly in 5 homes were priced below $65,000. 4
Manhattan Quarterly Market Report Q 04 Condos (quarteroverquarter) Q Q 04 Q 04 0 (yearoveryear) Total Condo Units Available 5,46 5,548.% 5,04 8.0% 5.% 9.% 9.7% 54.6% 9.9% 9.9% 4 6.0% 60.4% Median Asking Price $,695,000 $,699,999 0.% $,589,500 6.6% Median Asking Price per sq. ft. $,58 $,57.9% $,408.% Recorded Sales Total Sales,64,597.8%,99 4.9% $,97,000 $,0,087 0.4% $,90,000 9.0% Total,,4 8.6%,5 8.% Median Days on Market, sales, and pending sales data includes only condo listings. Sales data is based on sale transactions recorded by the New York City Department of Finance as of October 5, 04. This may not represent all condo sale transactions for Q 04. Q Condo Market 4 5.% Share of Manhattan condos priced in the top tier falls slightly. A greater share of condo units listed for sale in the third quarter were priced in the middle price tier than previous quarters. More than half (54.6 percent) of all listed condos were priced between $65,000 and $.9 million in Q, compared to 9.9 percent of listed condos in the previous quarter. Total Condo days median time on market 54.6% $.million median sale price Price tier shares are based on total number of condo units available during Q 04. Bottom tier is comprised of units priced up to $65,000; middle tier are units priced between $65,000 and $.9 million; top tier is units priced above $.9 million. 5
Manhattan Quarterly Market Report Q 04 Coops (quarteroverquarter) Q Q 04 Q 04 0 (yearoveryear) Total Coop Units Available 5,074 5,646 0.% 5,678 0.6% 40.% 40.4% 0.8% 9.7%.% 50.5% 0.% 8.5% 8.7% Median Asking Price $75,000 $75,000.4% $69,750 6.% Median Asking Price per sq. ft. $88 $8.0% $8 7.4% Recorded Sales Total Sales,86,7 5.%,84 9.6% $685,000 $675,000.5% $65,550 5.% Total,4,07 0.9%,685.6% Median Days on Market, sales, and pending sales data includes only coop listings. Sales data is based on sale transactions recorded by the New York City Department of Finance as of October 5, 04. This may not represent all coop sale transactions for Q 04. Q Coop Market 0.% 40.% Coop inventory posts dramatic drop in Q, falls shorter than total condo inventory for first time in 4 years. Roughly in 5 coop units listed for sale during the third quarter were priced in the bottom tier less than $65,000 making it the least expensive segment in the Manhattan real estate market and the most balanced between the three price tiers. Total Coop days median time on market 9.7% $685 thousand median sale price Price tier shares are based on total number of coop units available during Q 04. Bottom tier is comprised of units priced up to $65,000; middle tier are units priced between $65,000 and $.9 million; top tier is units priced above $.9 million. 6
Manhattan Quarterly Market Report Q 04 Townhouses (yearoveryear) (quarteroverquarter) Q Q 04 Q 04 0 Total Townhouse Units Available 4 48.% 50 0.9% 0.% 0.% 0.9%.0% 4.7% 4.9% 96.8% 95.% 94.% Median Asking Price $7,95,000 $7,995,000 7.5% $7,075,000 4.5% Median Asking Price per sq. ft. $,586 $,59.% $,480 7.% Recorded Sales Total Sales 7.9% 5.6% $7,50,000 $,00,000 7.4% $5,95,000 44.9% Total 4 6.% 7.5% Median Days on Market 6 9, sales, and pending sales data includes only townhouse listings. Sales data is based on sale transactions recorded by the New York City Department of Finance as of October 5, 04. This may not represent all townhouse sale transactions for Q 04. Q Townhouse Market 0.% Total Townhouse.0% Nearly all (96.8 percent) of townhouses listed for sale were priced above $.9 million. The number of available townhouses increased by 0.9 percent since last year, but they remain the smallest and most expensive segment of the Manhattan real estate market. The median sale price of these homes jumped to $7.5 million in the third quarter, while time on market increased to 6 days from days last quarter. 6days median time on market 96.8% $7.5 million median sale price Price tier shares are based on total number of townhouse units available during Q 04. Bottom tier is comprised of units priced up to $65,000; middle tier are units priced between $65,000 and $.9 million; top tier is units priced above $.9 million. 7
Neighborhood Summary Manhattan Quarterly Market Report Q 04 8 All Downtown Battery Park City Chelsea Chinatown Civic Center East Village Financial District Flatiron Gramercy Park Greenwich Village Little Italy Lower East Side Nolita Soho Tribeca West Village All Midtown Central Park South Kips Bay Midtown Midtown South Midtown West Murray Hill Roosevelt Island Sutton Place Turtle Bay All Upper East Side Carnegie Hill Lenox Hill Upper Carnegie Hill Upper East Side Yorkville All Upper West Side Lincoln Square Manhattan Valley Morningside Heights Upper West Side All Upper Manhattan Central Harlem East Harlem Hamilton Heights Inwood Manhattanville Washington Heights West Harlem 08 48 9 7 4 0 7 06 7 6 78 7 5 8 04 790 6 75 85 7 47 50 9 97 845 0 6 5 5 4 7 4 40 45 48 47 4 0 47 9.% 6.8%.7% 4.7%.6% 6.8%.%.% 6.5% 0.9% 0.% 74.% 9.7% 0.% 0.7% 7.8%.6%.0% 7.8%.5% 7.5% 0 0.5% 5.6% 8.0% 7.6% 7.4% 4.8% 8.8% 4.8%.4%.% 8.4% 4.% 8.7% 4.7% 8.5% 8.%.5% 0.7% 4.9% 8 Total Sales Yearoveryear, 64 45 0 6 547 80 50 5 8 08 5 8 7 69 47 94 64 8 54 4 80 8 88 0 48 79 0 747 5 8 68 00 79 9 966 9 87 74 8 0.7%.8% 0.%.% 66.7% 5.8%.%.0%.% 7.6% 57.9% 8.% 69.% 46.4% 5.% 0.4%.0% 4.4% 6.% 8.9% 6.7% 5.% 4.4% 7.% 6.%.8%.%.7% 6.6% 4.8%.8%.7%.6%.% 8.7% 4.8% 6.4%.0%.%.% 9.%.7% 0 0.7% 4.% Total Yearoveryear 4 0 4 4 6 84 9 98 9 84 9 4 9.% 7.5% 4.% 88.9% 5.4% 5.0% 5.4% 5.0% 8.% 4.% 7.4% 8.6%.% 7.5% 5.0% 66.7% 8.% 7.%.% 9.% 6.7% 57.9% 9.%.%.% 6.7%.% 6.7% 85.7%.% 6.7%.6% Median Days on Market Yearoveryear $,09,000 $865,000 $,007,06 $0,000 $70,000 $,0,80 $,07,500 $,644,500 $905,000 $999,5 $78,900 $65,000 $,00,000 $,897,500 $,675,000 $,7,500 $750,000 $,765,000 $56,000 $,0,000 $805,000 $660,000 $650,000 $840,000 $885,000 $800,000 $,050,000 $,550,000 $,00,000 $,795,000 $,0,000 $755,000 $997,500 $,85,000 $699,500 $55,000 $,050,000 $4,99 $,500 $67,500 $47,500 $9,000 $4,85 $60,000 4.6%.%.9% 6.%.4% 4.0% 4.8% 7.%.% 6.% 7.7% 0.% 06.0% 8.% 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 60.5% 8.4% 0.%.8%.% 4.% 8.% 8.% 4.%.6% 4.7%.7%.% 0.%.9% 7.7% 9.6% 7.% 5.% 7.8% 4.8%.% 5.7% 6.7% 6.5% 6.7% Median Sale Price Yearoveryear $,750,000 $,85,000 $,000,000 $,767,500 $574,000 $995,000 $,57,500 $,50,000 $,67,500 $,675,000 $4,75,000 $689,000 $,850,000 $,65,000 $4,095,000 $,8,000 $,00,000 $,97,500 $589,500 $,099,000 $,89,500 $,00,000 $687,500 $9,000 $,95,000 $909, $,4,000 $,995,000 $,900,000 $,947,500 $,400,000 $85,000 $,95,000 $,4,000 $8,500 $0,000 $,50,000 $5,000 $7,000 $65,000 $9,000 $,000 $7,000 $8,000 $,000 8.4% 7.4%.8% 07.9%.0% 7.%.7% 4.4% 7.% 68.0% 45.4%.0% 5.7%.8%.% 6.%.9% 7.%.6% 40.%.6% 8.0% 5.9% 7.5% 9.% 0.6% 8.4% 0.9% 8.8% 9.9%.7% 8.0% 8.6% 5.4%.7% 5.7% 5.0% 6.7% 4.8% 4.%.% 0.9% 0.8% 4.8% 7.% Median Listing Price Yearoveryear Recorded Sales Data Listings Data % Bottom Tier % Middle Tier % Top Tier.0%.6% 4.0% 9.0% 66.7% 5.6% 6.9% 5.0% 4.6% 6.% 8.5% 6.8% 4.9% 4.9% 5.4% 5.%.%.0% 4.9% 5.8% 9.%.6%.4%.9% 6.8%.%.4%.%.8% 6.% 5.0% 57.0%.5% 57.% 4.0% 50.6%.9% 86.5% 5.% 87.5% 4.% 6.% 8.4% 8.6%.%.% 44.9% 5.0% 0.6% 4.5% 8.5% 0.4% 4.8% 4.9%.% 6.0% 4.% 7.% 8.% 7.%.% 64.5%.9% 8.8% 4.5%.7%.0%.%.9%.% 9.8% 4.0%.9%.5% 6.8%.7% 9.9%.8%.% 5.9%.5% 6.7% 50.% 67.6% 5.4% 4.% 48.% 8 44.8% 59.4% 0.9% 8 8.9% 95.% 60.% 4.9% 84.0%.4% 67.7%.4% 4.7% 4.7% 9.7% 48.% 9.6% 54.% 65.5% 6.%.7% 55.%.9% 46.% 54.%.0% 0.% 45.0% 6.% 6.% 9.5% 4.%.4% 5.9% Pending Sales Yearoveryear Data 86 4 5 4 85 64 7 95 45 5 40 0 76 6 55 4 0 5 5 7 98 55 48 50 76 9 476 80 9 9 8 5 75 4 5 94 6.% 4.% 5.5% 88.9%.%.4% 0.6%.9% 9.%.0% 96.5%.6% 66.7% 8.% 9.4% 6.% 6.5% 9.8% 6.0% 6.8% 4.% 40.0%.8% 9.%.8% 5.7% 88.9% 0.7%.8%.5%.7%.6% 8.% 9.6%.7%.% 84.% 0.7% 40.% 0
Manhattan Quarterly Market Report Q 04 Glossary StreetEasy Condo Price Index The StreetEasy Condo Price Index (SECPI) measures how prices are moving in the Manhattan condo real estate market. It is based on a repeatsales method, which compares the sale prices of the same properties over time. Given this methodology, the index is a much more reliable measure of sale prices as it controls for the variety of condos sold in a given month. The SECPI is indexed to January 000 with a value of 00. StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast The StreetEasy Condo Price Forecast (SECPF) predicts the in Manhattan condo sale prices one month out from the current reported period. Incorporating the StreetEasy Condo Price Index, StreetEasy s comprehensive database of listing prices and days on market two leading indicators to future condo prices we are able to accurately forecast what next month s condo prices will be before the release of publicly recorded sales data. Price Tiers Days on Market Home listings are placed into one of three price tiers bottom, middle, and top using price cutoffs derived from a month weighted moving average of recorded sale prices at the rd and 66th percentiles. Price tier cutoffs each month in order to capture evolving trends in homes that are being sold. The top tier corresponds with the most expensive listings. Quarterly inventory is the sum of all units that were available on StreetEasy at any point during the quarter. For example, if a unit was originally listed in February (Q) and sold in May (Q), it would be included in the inventory number for both quarters. This approach allows us to analyze what was available to buyers in a given quarter instead of at a specific moment or cutoff. The number of days from the original listing on StreetEasy to when it enters contract. After a buyer enters contract on a unit, it is pulled from the market and is no longer available to other buyers creating a logical end point to days on market. Measuring days on market by the number of days from the original listing to the recorded closing date may be skewed by lengthy closing periods during which the unit is not technically on the market. The number of units that entered contract during the quarter. Median Asking Price The exact middle sale price among all recorded sale prices of units that closed during the quarter. In general, median values are more accurate than average values which may be skewed by price outliers (a few sales that are extremely expensive or extremely inexpensive). In order to consider only armslength transactions, we do not include sale prices lower than $0,000 in this calculation. The exact middle asking price among all asking prices of listed units during the quarter. About StreetEasy Launched in 006 and acquired by Zillow, Inc. in August 0, StreetEasy is New York City s leading real estate resource, providing accurate and comprehensive forsale and forrent listings from hundreds of real estate brokerages in New York City. The site adds layers of deep, proprietary data and useful search tools that help consumers and real estate professionals navigate the complex real estate markets within the five boroughs of New York City, Northern New Jersey, and the Hamptons. @StreetEasy /StreetEasy #StreetEasy