ISSN 2253-3656 13 2012 Mission Statement To help Kiwi businesspeople and householders make informed financial decisions by discussing the economy in a language they can understand. Market Strength Continues This month s survey of licensed real estate agents around New Zealand has produced results similar to or stronger than last month for all readings. Buyers are perceived to be more motivated to transact than sellers, a strong net 41% of agents feel that prices are rising, and both investors and first home buyers are perceived to be quite active. With NZ interest rates set to remain low for an extended period of time the housing market is likely to remain firm with assistance from rising construction costs and an underlying shortage of property predominantly in Auckland. Is the number of people going through Open Homes increasing or decreasing? Firm interest A high net 37% of agents reported that they are seeing more people going through Open Homes. The magnitude of the jump from 27% in the survey is however the same as last year therefore this is probably just a seasonal rise rather than the sudden appearance of a number of new buyers. 6 5 NET % OF AGENTS SEEING MORE PEOPLE THROUGH OPEN HOMES 4 3 2 1 Is the proportion of Written Sales going unconditional increasing or decreasing? Sales firm The proportion of Written Sales going Unconditional rose in the opinion of a net 35% of agents, but again there appears to be an element of seasonality in this reading. Page 1
4 4 3 3 2 1 PROPORTION OF WRITTEN SALES GOING INCONDITIONAL Are auction clearance rates increasing or decreasing? Strong clearance A record net 32% of agents report that auction clearance rates appear to be rising. This would accord with other data suggesting good auction outcomes. 3 3 2 1 - AUCTION CLEARANCE RATES RISING? -1 Are requests for appraisals increasing or decreasing? A few more vendors? A net 25% of agents report that they are noticing more people asking for appraisals. This is a rise from just 2% in and will bear watching to see if more stock may be coming forward. The chances are that this is not happening however as earlier this year and late last year very high proportions of agents said more appraisals were being sought yet no listings surge eventuated. 5 4 ARE REQUESTS FOR APPRAISALS RISING? 3 2 1-1 -2 Page 2
Is the number of investors looking to buy increasing or decreasing? Strong A firm net 25% of agents feel that more investors are appearing. This result is in line with those since the start of the year. 3 2 of agents reporting yes ARE MORE INVESTORS LOOKING TO BUY? 1 - -1 Source:BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey - Is the number of first home buyers increasing or decreasing? Strong also A net 39% of agents are noticing more first home buyers about. This continues a string of strong results. 6 5 4 of agents reporting yes ARE MORE FIRST HOME BUYERS IN THE MARKET? Source:BNZ-REINZ Residential Market Survey 3 2 1 Do prices appear to increasing, flat or decreasing? Prices up Prices are widely perceived as rising and the relatively smooth upward trend in this measure (except ) speaks to the strength of the turnaround in pricing behaviour. Page 3
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 NET % OF AGENTS FEELING PRICES ARE RISING Prices viewed as rising -1-2 Prices viewed as falling Who appear more motivated to transact the buyers or the sellers? Sellers have the upper hand A net 18% of agents feel that it is a sellers market with buyers more motivated to transact than vendors. The shift in the NZ real estate market in favour of sellers happened in and has largely strengthened since then. 2 1 NET % OF AGENTS FEELING BUYERS ARE MORE MOTIVATED THAN SELLERS Buyers more motivated - -1 - -2 Buyers are less motivated than sellers What are the main factors holding buyers back? Listings have overwhelmingly become the main factor causing buyers to hold back or be frustrated in their purchase efforts. Few buyers are holding off because they feel prices will fall. They feel prices will decline 12.6 12.5 21.3 Worries about securing finance 16.3 16.4 17.8 Not confident they can sell their house 14.6 15.1 17.6 Poor quality of listings 47.5 44.1 33.3 Other 9.1 12.0 1 What are the main reasons people are buying? None of these measures have changed appreciably from our survey. Comparisons of measures with average have been distorted by the inclusion of First Home and Good Interest Rates explicitly in the options boxes only from last month. Page 4
Fear of missing out/feel time is right for prices 10.1 9.8 10.9 Trading up 10.4 10.9 13.9 Trading down 10.8 10.9 15.7 Shifting into town 12.0 11.4 15.1 Arriving from overseas 4.3 4.0 5.5 Relationship breakdown 8.5 8.4 11.8 Commuting costs 1.2 1.7 2.4 Schooling 6.7 5.3 8.1 Want closer proximity to shops 1.3 1.3 2.1 Want closer proximity to relatives 2.1 1.5 2.7 Want closer proximity to health care services 1.4 1.2 2.0 Investing 0.3 0.4 0.5 First home 14.7 15.1 3.0 Earthquake 0.3 0.2 1.4 Good interest rates 14.2 16.2 2.1 Other 1.7 1.5 3.1 What are the main reasons Written Sales fail to go unconditional? The only reasonably clear trend in responses to this question is a decrease in the proportion of agents citing inability of the buyer to get finance as a reason for them backing out. Finance 28.8 31.2 35.8 LIM report 5.6 6.5 6.2 Builders report 53.2 53.3 50.1 Earthquake/insurance 3.6 2.6 2.8 Can't sell own house 0.9 1.8 1.1 Other 8.0 4.6 4.3 What are the main factors motivating vendors to sell? No big changes. Note the inclusion of Retirement as an explicit option only from last month s survey. They think prices are going to fall 1.7 2.4 2.9 Need the money 13.2 14.1 18.6 Trading up 11.7 11.4 11.6 Trading down 15.2 15.6 16.4 Leaving town 13.1 10.9 13.7 Leaving the country 6.5 6.3 7.5 Relationship breakdown 13.4 13.5 15.3 Commuting costs 0.8 1.2 1.2 Schooling 2.8 2.4 3.2 Want closer proximity to shops 1.1 0.9 1.1 Want closer proximity to relatives 1.6 1.2 1.7 Want closer proximity to health care services 1.3 1.4 2.2 Earthquake 0.1 0.3 0.3 Bank request, job loss 0.3 0.1 Retirement 10.1 9.9 1.4 Estate sales 6.0 6.6 0.9 Other 1.5 1.6 1.9 Page 5
REGIONS We have changed our location classification from local authority areas to regions in order to be able to produce results broken down by location with some statistical validity. Our aim is 20 responses minimum per region and if results below show a region with fewer than 20 responses the data should not be considered statistically representative of the true situation for all agents in the region. As was the case for our survey, Northland, Bay of Plenty and Manawatu/Wanganui all present as buyers markets with the addition this month of Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast. One wonders if events surrounding Solid Energy activities on the West Coast account for that latter result compared with four weeks. Ago. First home buyers and investors are seen however as active still in all regions except investors in nelson/ Marl. etc, with notable lifts in investor interest in Northland and Manawatu/Wanganui. # of. # of people % of Written Auction Requests Investors First Prices Buyers more Responses through Sales Clearance for buying home motivated? Open Unconditional rate Appraisals buyers Homes Northland 18 33.3 33.3 28.6 27.8 38.9-11.1-38.9 Auckland 142 39.4 43.0 44.0 20.4 35.9 47.9 73.2 54.2 Waikato 34 20.6 38.2 31.8 58.8 14.7 32.4 20.6 Bay of Plenty 40 42.5 3 45.7 4-22.5 Hawkes Bay/Gisborne 27 55.6 48.1 33.3 25.9 29.6 48.1 29.6 25.9 Taranaki 16 43.8 12.5-18.2 31.3 5-6.3 6.3 Manawatu/Wanganui 15 6.7 13.3-6 -13.3 26.7 33.3 13.3-13.3 Wellington 38 28.9 28.9 39.1 28.9 23.7 42.1 31.6 10.5 Nelson/Marl. Wst Cst 19 10.5 5.3-33.3-5.3 5.3-5.3-36.8 Canterbury 41 32.5 3 27.3 17.5 2 17.5 62.5 3 Otago 28 57.1 35.7 12.5 35.7 10.7 42.9 35.7 3.6 Southland 11 54.5 54.5 42.9 36.4 18.2 54.5 36.4 All 429 36.6 3 31.6 24.7 24.7 38.7 40.8 18.4 For further information contact Tony Alexander, Chief Economist, 04 474-6744, tony.alexander@bnz.co.nz www.tonyalexander.co.nz The BNZ-REINZ Market Survey is run (usually) on the first Tuesday of the month after the first Thursday. In the email sent to REINZ member email addresses respondents are asked to click on a URL which takes them to a survey site. Respondents are asked if they feel various measures of real estate market activity are increasing or decreasing and to identify various factors in play influencing buyer and vendor behaviour. Results are collated within 48 hours and this report is distributed to all BNZ Weekly Overview recipients, REINZ members, and the media. This publication has been provided for general information only. Although every effort has been made to ensure this publication is accurate the contents should not be relied upon or used as a basis for entering into any products described in this publication. To the extent that any information or recommendations in this publication constitute financial advice, they do not take into account any person s particular financial situation or goals. Bank of New Zealand strongly recommends readers seek independent legal/financial advice prior to acting in relation to any of the matters discussed in this publication. Neither Bank of New Zealand nor any person involved in this publication accepts any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever may directly or indirectly result from any advice, opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in this publication.. Page 6