HOME Survey Housing Opportunities and Market Experience June 2018 National Association of REALTORS Research Group
Introduction The Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) report was created to monitor consumer sentiment about the housing market. This report covers core topics that will be tracked on a monthly basis such as views on if now is a good time to buy or sell a home, the perception of home price changes, perceived ability to qualify for a mortgage, and the outlook on the U.S. economy. Additionally, current topical trends are covered in the HOME survey. In Q2 2018, respondents were asked if a high rate of home ownership strengthens a community and will homeownership be easier or harder for future generation of home buyers. On a monthly basis renters and homeowners are asked about their personal financial outlook which is indexed on a scale of 0 to 100. Data will be reported not only on ownership status, but by age, income, and type of geographic location. Additional topics are examined in depth on http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/ including whether housing as a good financial investment, whether homeownership is part of the American Dream, and if renters want to become homeowners. This HOME survey is released on a quarterly basis.
Good Time to Buy a Home In the second quarter of 2018, 68 percent of people believe that now is a good time to buy a home. Thirty-nine percent believe that strongly, a slight increase from Q1 2018. Only 29 percent of people believe that now is not a good time to buy a home. Across all groups surveyed, the majority feel that now is a good time to buy a home. Not surprisingly with rapid home price acceleration, those who are currently renting or living with someone else, those who are under 34 years of age, and those who live in urban areas are less confident that now is a good time to buy. Good Time to Buy a Home, Strongly or Moderately 80% 75% 74% 71% 70% 70% 71% 72% 72% 68% 68% 60% 31% 32% 28% 25% 23% 28% 31% 29% 30% 29% 40% 20% 44% 42% 43% 45% 47% 43% 41% 43% 38% 39% % Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Strongly Moderately
Good Time to Buy a Home Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over A Good 52% 62% 69% 77% 81% Time Not a Good Time 48% 38% 31% 23% 19% Household $50,000 to More than Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 A Good Time 61% 70% 76% Not a Good Time 39% 30% 24% Region: Northeast Midwest South West A Good Time 63% 71% 73% 60% Not a Good Time 37% 29% 27% 40% Location: Rural Suburban Urban A Good Time 70% 70% 62% Not a Good Time 30% 30% 38% Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone A Good Time 78% 49% 52% Not a Good Time 24% 51% 48%
Good Time to Sell a Home Seventy-five percent of people believe that now is a good time to sell a home, an increase from 61 percent in Q2 2016 and matching the high recorded in Q3 2017. Forty-six percent believe that strongly in Q2 2018. Twenty-nine percent believe that now is not a good time to sell a home. Those who are in the West (78 percent) are most likely to think that now is a good time to sell a home, which is also the least likely region to think that now is a good time to buy a home. 80% 60% 40% Now is Good Time To Sell, Strongly or Moderately 75% 74% 69% 71% 71% 63% 61% 62% 30% 56% 29% 28% 32% 30% 26% 27% 29% 28% 75% 29% 20% 28% 32% 37% 35% 39% 42% 45% 43% 42% 46% % Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Strongly Moderately
Good Time to Sell a Home Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over A Good 64% 74% 78% 82% 78% Time Not a Good Time 36% 26% 23% 18% 22% Household $50,000 to More than Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 A Good Time 61% 81% 85% Not a Good Time 39% 19% 15% Region: Northeast Midwest South West A Good Time 71% 76% 74% 78% Not a Good Time 29% 24% 26% 22% Location: Rural Suburban Urban A Good Time 72% 79% 73% Not a Good Time 28% 21% 28% Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone A Good Time 81% 67% 58% Not a Good Time 19% 33% 42%
Home Prices in the Past 12 Months Sixty-eight percent of people believe that prices have gone up within their communities in the last 12 months, which is an increase from Q1 2018 at 63 percent. Twenty-eight percent believe prices have stayed the same and five percent believe prices have gone down. Those who are in the West, those with incomes over $100,000, and those 35 to 44 years in age are most likely to report that prices have increased in their communities. 100% Home Prices in the Last 12 Months In Local Community 11% 11% 9% 10% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 80% 39% 36% 34% 35% 33% 33% 30% 30% 31% 28% 60% 40% 20% 50% 53% 56% 55% 60% 60% 63% 64% 63% 68% 0% Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018 Gone Up Stayed the Same Gone Down
Home Prices in the Past 12 Months Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over Gone Up 65% 73% 67% 67% 67% Gone Down Stayed the Same 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 31% 22% 29% 29% 29% Household $50,000 to More than Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 Gone Up 62% 69% 75% Gone Down 7% 4% 3% Stayed the Same 31% 28% 23% Region: Northeast Midwest South West Gone Up 58% 63% 66% 82% Gone Down 8% 6% 4% 2% Stayed the Same 34% 31% 30% 15% Location: Rural Suburban Urban Gone Up 61% 71% 69% Gone Down 7% 3% 6% Stayed the Same 33% 26% 25% Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone Gone Up 69% 68% 61% Gone Down 5% 4% 6% Stayed the Same 27% 27% 33%
Home Prices in the Next Six Months Forty percent of respondents believe that prices will stay the same in their communities in the next six months, which is the lowest percent reported. Fiftyfive percent believe prices will increase in the next six months and five percent believe prices will go down in the next six months. Those who are in the West, in urban areas, and renters are most likely to believe prices will go up in their communities. 100% Home Prices in the Next 6 Months In Local Community 9% 8% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 80% 60% 47% 48% 47% 47% 42% 41% 41% 43% 42% 40% 40% 20% 44% 45% 44% 44% 51% 52% 53% 51% 53% 55% 0% Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Will Go Up Stay the Same Will Go Down
Home Prices in the Next Six Months Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over Will Go Up 54% 54% 57% 54% 55% Will Go Down Stay the Same 6% 6% 8% 4% 3% 40% 40% 35% 42% 42% Household $50,000 to More than Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 Will Go Up 55% 54% 57% Will Go Down 6% 5% 4% Stay the Same 39% 41% 39% Region: Northeast Midwest South West Will Go Up 53% 47% 55% 65% Will Go Down 7% 6% 5% 4% Stay the Same 40% 48% 40% 31% Location: Rural Suburban Urban Will Go Up 50% 57% 58% Will Go Down 5% 5% 6% Stay the Same 45% 38% 36% Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone Will Go Up 55% 56% 49% Will Go Down 5% 7% 2% Stay the Same 40% 37% 49%
Qualify for a Mortgage Among those who currently do not own a home, 26 percent believe it would be very difficult (down from 34 percent last quarter) and 28 percent believe it would be somewhat difficult to qualify for a mortgage given their current financial situation. Seventy-one percent of those who earn under $50,000 believe it would be at least somewhat difficult to qualify for a mortgage compared to 22 percent of those earning over $100,000. With Household s Current Financial Situation, Non- Owners Perceived Difficulty Qualifying for a Mortgage 100% 14% 16% 15% 16% 21% 17% 20% 20% 19% 21% 80% 60% 23% 25% 20% 23% 23% 23% 19% 21% 17% 25% 40% 33% 30% 36% 31% 29% 30% 31% 28% 30% 28% 20% 30% 30% 29% 30% 27% 31% 31% 32% 34% 26% 0% Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018 Very Difficult Somewhat Difficult Not Very Difficult Not At All Difficult
Qualify for a Mortgage Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over Very Difficult 23% 18% 34% 35% 32% Somewhat Difficult 26% 36% 30% 24% 32% Not Very Difficult 28% 25% 15% 20% 17% Not At All Difficult 23% 21% 22% 22% 19% Household $50,000 to More than Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000 Very Difficult 39% 11% 6% Somewhat Difficult 32% 26% 16% Not Very Difficult 18% 31% 33% Not At All Difficult 11% 32% 45% Region: Northeast Midwest South West Very Difficult 27% 31% 22% 26% Somewhat Difficult 23% 16% 36% 31% Not Very Difficult 24% 29% 22% 26% Not At All Difficult 27% 24% 20% 17% Location: Rural Suburban Urban Very Difficult 29% 24% 26% Somewhat Difficult 22% 30% 28% Not Very Difficult 24% 29% 20% Not At All Difficult 25% 17% 25% Tenure: Rent Live with someone Very Difficult 23% 32% Somewhat Difficult 28% 30% Not Very Difficult 26% 21% Not At All Difficult 23% 16%
Outlook on U.S. Economy Fifty-eight percent of people believe the U.S. economy is improving, down from 60 percent in Q4 2017. Optimism is highest in the South, among those who live with someone, and those who make $100,000 or more. Fifty-six percent of those 34 years of age or younger believe the economy is improving. Fifty-one percent of those in urban areas believe the economy is improving compared to sixty-three percent in rural areas. 100% Outlook on the U.S. Economy 80% 52% 51% 52% 46% 38% 46% 47% 48% 40% 42% 60% 40% 20% 48% 49% 48% 54% 62% 54% 53% 52% 60% 58% 0% Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2016Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q1 2018Q2 2018 Improving Not Improving
Outlook on U.S. Economy Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over Improving 56% 57% 60% 61% 59% Not Improving 44% 43% 40% 39% 42% Household Income: Under $50,000 $50,000 to $100,000 More than $100,000 Improving 48% 60% 69% Not Improving 52% 40% 31% Region: Northeast Midwest South West Improving 55% 59% 60% 55% Not Improving 45% 41% 40% 45% Location: Rural Suburban Urban Improving 63% 59% 51% Not Improving 37% 41% 49% Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone Improving 62% 48% 65% Not Improving 39% 52% 36%
Homeownership Strengthening Communities In Q2 2018, respondents were asked if a high rate of homeownership strengthens a community and if homeownership will be easier or harder to attain for future generations of home buyers. Sixty-seven percent of respondents believe that homeownership strengthens a community a great deal. Over three-fourths of respondents who own their own home, earn over $100,000 a year, and are 55 and older feel that homeownership strengthens a community a great deal. Homeownership Strengthening Community Not sure 1% Not really 10% Somewhat 22% Great deal 67%
Homeownership Strengthening Communities $50,000 to Household Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 More than $100,000 Great deal 58% 71% 75% Somewhat 27% 19% 20% Not really 14% 9% 5% Not sure 2% 1% * Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone Great deal 76% 50% 46% Somewhat 26% 36% 23% Not really 16% 2% 2% Not sure 6% 4% 8% Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over Great deal 51% 62% 71% 76% 77% Somewhat 34% 24% 19% 16% 16% Not really 13% 13% 8% 8% 5% Not sure 2% 1% 1% * 2%
Future Generations Becoming Homeowners Seventy-three percent of respondents believe attaining homeownership will be harder for future generations of home buyers. In comparison, only 11% think it will easier and 13% believe there will be no change. Among those 34 years or younger, 74 percent believe it will be harder to own a home for future generations of home buyers. Future Generations Becoming Homeowners Not sure 3% Much easier 3% Somewhat easier 8% Much harder 37% No difference 13% Somewhat harder 36%
Future Generations Becoming Homeowners Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over Much easier 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% Somewhat easier 10% 8% 8% 6% 8% No difference 9% 14% 14% 13% 11% Somewhat harder 40% 32% 37% 35% 42% Much harder 34% 42% 36% 39% 33% Not sure 1% 3% 2% 3% 4% $50,000 to Household Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 More than $100,000 Much easier 4% 2% 3% Somewhat easier 11% 7% 6% No difference 11% 14% 13% Somewhat harder 32% 40% 37% Much harder 39% 34% 39% Not sure 3% 3% 1% Age: Rural Urban Suburban Much easier 3% 3% 4% Somewhat easier 7% 8% 7% No difference 14% 14% 10% Somewhat harder 39% 37% 33% Much harder 33% 35% 43% Not sure 4% 3% 2%
Personal Financial Outlook Index Index ranges between 0 and 100: 0 = all respondents believe their personal financial situation will be worse in 6 months; 50 = all respondents believe their personal financial situation will be about the same in 6 months; 100 = all respondents believe their personal situation will be better in 6 months. 75 Personal Financial Outlook by Tenure 70 65 60 64 62.1 61.2 55 50 All U.S. Households Own Rent Personal Financial Outlook by Age of Household Head 80 70 60 50 67.2 62.1 62.1 62 53.2 40 All U.S. Households 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+
Personal Financial Outlook Index Index ranges between 0 and 100: 0 = all respondents believe their personal financial situation will be worse in 6 months; 50 = all respondents believe their personal financial situation will be about the same in 6 months; 100 = all respondents believe their personal situation will be better in 6 months. 75 Personal Financial Outlook by Income 70 65 60 67.4 65.7 62.1 55 50 54.5 54 45 All U.S. Households Under 30K 30K-50K 50-75K 75K+ 75 Personal Financial Outlook by Area 70 65 60 55 63.9 62.1 61 59.6 50 45 All U.S. Households Urban Suburban Rural
Methodology The survey was conducted by an established survey research firm, TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. Each month, April through June 2018, a sample of U.S. households was surveyed via random-digit dial, including cell phones and land lines. Using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system, TechnoMetrica conducts interviews from their call center in Ramsey, NJ. Regional quotas are used, based on four census regions and nine census divisions. Each month approximately 900 qualified households responded to the survey. The data compiled for this report and is based on 2,703 completed telephone interviews. For monthly results, the margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. 2018 National Association of REALTORS All Rights Reserved. May not be reprinted in whole or in part without permission of the National Association of REALTORS. For reprint information, contact data@realtors.org.
The National Association of REALTORS, The Voice for Real Estate, is America s largest trade association, representing 1.3 million members, including NAR s institutes, societies and councils, involved in all aspects of the real estate industry. NAR membership includes brokers, salespeople, property managers, appraisers, counselors and others engaged in both residential and commercial real estate. The term REALTOR is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics. Working for America s property owners, the National Association provides a facility for professional development, research and exchange of information among its members and to the public and government for the purpose of preserving the free enterprise system and the right to own real property. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS RESEARCH GROUP The Mission of the National Association of REALTORS Research Group is to collect and disseminate timely, accurate and comprehensive real estate data and to conduct economic analysis in order to inform and engage members, consumers, and policymakers and the media in a professional and accessible manner. To find out about other products from NAR s Research Group, visit https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics. NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Research Group 500 New Jersey Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20001 202-383-1000 data@realtors.org