TREND Economic and Watch Report TREND is the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for more than 32,000 real estate professionals in and around the Philadelphia metropolitan region. TREND s 13-county primary service area includes Kent and New Castle counties in Delaware; Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Mercer and Salem counties in New Jersey; and Berks, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia counties in Pennsylvania. For more than 10 years, TREND has been committed to providing real estate professionals with superior real estate marketing information services. That commitment continues today and well into the future with our Internet-based MLS and Public Records systems and additional TREND products. The market information services and technology that TREND offers along with education, communication and support of these, give real estate professionals the tools and the advantage they need to succeed in today's industry. TREND provides the Economic and Watch Report to help real estate professionals identify current and future economic trends that affect the real estate industry. Index Local Report Delaware Kent County... New Castle County... New Jersey Burlington County... Camden County... Gloucester County... Mercer County... Salem County... Pennsylvania Berks County... Bucks County... Chester County... Delaware County... Montgomery County... Philadelphia County... 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 16 18 20 22 24 27 Trends... Chief Economist's Commentary*... Local Forecast... Economic Monitor*... 29 30 31 33 *Reprinted from Real Estate Outlook: Trends and Insights. 2006 TREND MLS and NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS. Used with permission. Reproduction, reprinting, or retransmission of this article in any form (electronic media included) is prohibited without expressed written consent. For subscription information please call 1-800-874-6500.
Buyer's Kent County, DE 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Labor : A decline in employment of 60 jobs was offset by a decrease in the number of persons looking for work during the first two months of the third quarter. The net effect was no change in the 3.3% average monthly unemployment rate from the second quarter. An improvement in the employment picture would directly impact home sales. Housing : Q2' 06 Q3' 06 Q4' 06 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days $235,600 $238,800 1,497 1,578 659 599 354 317 45 52 * Available as of Sep. 30, 2006. ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 3rd quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) 19901 $239,200 13.26% 114-11.63% 51 100.3% 19904 $227,200 4.17% 129-32.11% 38 99.3% 19934 $246,000-4.47% 42-54.35% 49 98.3% 19936 $75,000-18.48% 1-50.00% 317 100.0% 19938 $278,500 40.44% 35 94.44% 26 99.6% 19943 $228,200 3.59% 54-8.47% 68 98.3% 19946 $172,700-25.24% 6-66.67% 108 100.7% 19952 $239,300 31.20% 39 18.18% 89 95.3% 19953 $220,500-15.58% 9-47.06% 62 96.5% 19954 $137,400-20.72% 5 0.00% 75 97.6% 19955 $191,400 59.50% 4 300.00% 99 99.9% 19962 $277,800 16.87% 52 4.00% 68 99.2% 3
Kent County, DE Zip Code (Quarter) 19963 $232,100 0.78% 21-48.78% 64 19964 $222,200 57.25% 6 200.00% 50 98.4% 19977 $239,900 5.96% 78-14.29% 40 99.9% 19979 $209,200-4 - 16 4
Buyer's New Castle County, DE 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Labor : Employment declined by 840 jobs in July and August. The job losses brought about an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 3.9% in the second quarter to 4.4% for the first two months of the third quarter. Despite the job losses, the job situation still remains strong in New Castle County. Combined with relatively low mortgage rates, home sales should plateau at a strong level. Housing : Q2' 06 Q3' 06 Q4' 06 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days $263,500 $264,200 2,975 3,181 2,261 2,086 366 282 35 36 * Available as of Sep. 30, 2006. ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 3rd quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) 19701 $283,200 5.75% 159-20.50% 31 99.0% 19702 $236,900 7.68% 235-19.24% 34 98.6% 19703 $215,000 14.18% 39-40.00% 40 19706 $232,500 5.73% 4-42.86% 117 100.0% 19707 $454,800-0.22% 56-17.65% 36 19709 $325,100 10.77% 181 0.00% 38 101.1% 19711 $326,700 8.18% 146-17.05% 34 98.3% 19713 $227,200 11.98% 109-19.85% 25 99.2% 19720 $199,600 2.83% 225-14.77% 31 98.8% 19730 $282,600 4.74% 3 200.00% 12 99.0% 19731 $195,000-13.33% 1 0.00% 61 86.7% 5
New Castle County, DE Zip Code (Quarter) 19732 $749,900 5.62% 1 0.00% 23 100.0% 19734 $297,600 0.37% 34 13.33% 37 98.0% 19736 $240,000-1 - 178 96.0% 19801 $165,000-14.42% 69-25.00% 49 101.3% 19802 $157,500 12.90% 105-11.76% 41 19803 $369,500 0.52% 79-11.24% 31 19804 $189,200 1.99% 69-12.66% 29 98.2% 19805 $161,600 10.68% 182-15.35% 43 97.8% 19806 $344,800-2.96% 56-17.65% 54 96.2% 19807 $849,600-16.85% 29-17.14% 93 94.6% 19808 $266,500 3.33% 141-5.37% 30 98.6% 19809 $214,600 1.18% 70 12.90% 28 97.1% 19810 $342,400 8.11% 88-15.38% 37 19938 $227,500-29.35% 2 0.00% 49 85.2% 19977 $307,500-3.76% 2-66.67% 7 100.8% 6
Buyer's Burlington County, NJ 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Labor : Employment increased by 1,044 jobs in Burlington County during July and August. However, the number of job seekers also increased. The combined effect of these two trends was an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 4.2% for the second quarter to 4.7% in the first two months of the third quarter. The solid job growth may help to offset the effect of rising mortgage rates on home sales. Housing : Q2' 06 Q3' 06 Q4' 06 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days $285,300 $287,300 3,849 3,919 2,028 1,722 250 172 56 58 * Available as of Sep. 30, 2006. ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 3rd quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) 08010 $194,100 5.32% 42-27.59% 63 98.0% 08015 $205,300 11.09% 107-26.21% 62 08016 $269,200-3.24% 126-20.25% 62 08019 $185,000-22.27% 2 0.00% 2 08022 $423,500 8.90% 31-22.50% 64 96.2% 08036 $424,300 31.28% 13-45.83% 76 08041 $307,500-31.82% 4 100.00% 134 98.0% 08046 $217,100 12.49% 154-25.60% 57 98.8% 08048 $328,600 16.57% 52-14.75% 57 98.4% 08052 $205,600 7.03% 63 0.00% 59 98.7% 08053 $298,400 4.67% 209-20.23% 54 98.1% 7
Burlington County, NJ Zip Code (Quarter) 08054 $280,400 1.45% 228-24.50% 55 08055 $385,600-4.55% 88-36.23% 60 08057 $589,500 4.02% 63-41.12% 58 95.9% 08060 $242,300-10.79% 104-13.33% 56 97.1% 08065 $213,400 3.29% 32-27.27% 66 97.8% 08068 $228,600 11.13% 17 30.77% 60 98.7% 08075 $270,000 2.94% 108-17.56% 59 08077 $298,200-3.74% 58-34.83% 65 96.2% 08088 $329,900 4.33% 100-31.51% 48 08224 $469,000-1 - 83 100.0% 08505 $322,000 9.19% 65-20.73% 55 98.1% 08511 $397,500 61.91% 1-66.67% 145 94.9% 08515 $486,200-33.58% 2 0.00% 13 99.1% 08518 $150,100-14.57% 26 23.81% 67 97.3% 08554 $204,400 21.02% 13-40.91% 61 98.3% 08562 $412,000 8.02% 7-41.67% 85 95.1% 08610 $325,000-1 - 30 97.0% 08620 $334,600-28.07% 4-33.33% 82 97.0% OTHER $345,000-1 - 67 106.2% 8
Buyer's Camden County, NJ 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Labor : Employment increased by 1,140 jobs in Camden County during July and August. However, the number of job seekers also increased. The combined effect of these two trends was an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 5.4% for the second quarter to 5.8% in the first two months of the third quarter. The solid job growth may help to offset the effect of rising mortgage rates on home sales. Housing : Q2' 06 Q3' 06 Q4' 06 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days $214,900 $225,100 3,617 3,808 1,991 1,819 260 215 56 55 * Available as of Sep. 30, 2006. ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 3rd quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) 08002 $245,800 0.29% 83-24.55% 60 96.5% 08003 $385,000 15.48% 107-34.36% 61 97.2% 08004 $216,100-0.18% 60-28.57% 58 99.0% 08007 $206,000 9.81% 17-15.00% 56 08009 $279,500 8.97% 58 11.54% 53 97.6% 08012 $221,400 0.82% 79-20.20% 68 98.6% 08021 $163,700 8.12% 175-33.21% 48 98.9% 08026 $227,800-5.48% 9 12.50% 56 97.6% 08029 $203,800 16.46% 21 16.67% 63 98.3% 08030 $129,400 20.37% 53-13.11% 36 98.4% 08031 $186,000 6.53% 22-33.33% 82 97.3% 9
Camden County, NJ Zip Code (Quarter) 08033 $471,500-11.19% 53-38.37% 75 95.6% 08034 $243,500-5.62% 66-38.32% 44 08035 $291,000 0.73% 38 2.70% 56 96.3% 08037 $203,300-9.16% 9 0.00% 137 08043 $348,700 6.34% 111-30.19% 54 96.8% 08045 $234,900 48.02% 5-50.00% 19 101.7% 08049 $181,100 5.05% 21-19.23% 65 08059 $190,300 17.69% 24 0.00% 50 98.9% 08078 $190,700 4.90% 29-17.14% 51 97.8% 08081 $207,000 0.24% 251-28.29% 59 08083 $206,500 6.99% 30-31.82% 50 08084 $212,700 20.03% 22 4.76% 39 98.3% 08089 $208,500-3.29% 11-8.33% 67 98.0% 08091 $229,300 14.19% 11-60.71% 30 99.4% 08102 $93,200 28.37% 4-33.33% 82 08103 $59,600 4.01% 23-32.35% 54 95.9% 08104 $69,300 12.50% 51-40.00% 55 97.8% 08105 $86,600 25.14% 54 54.29% 51 08106 $209,900-4.24% 32 6.67% 48 97.3% 08107 $174,900-5.00% 51-3.77% 56 98.6% 08108 $248,500 4.41% 79 0.00% 63 96.5% 08109 $226,700 15.66% 88-11.11% 51 08110 $156,300 15.01% 71-22.83% 47 98.6% OTHER $174,900-1 - 43 102.9% 10
Buyer's Gloucester County, NJ 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Labor : Employment increased by 636 jobs in Gloucester County during July and August. However, the number of job seekers also increased. The combined effect of these two trends was an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 4.8% for the second quarter to 5.3% in the first two months of the third quarter. The solid job growth may help to offset the effect of rising mortgage rates on home sales. Housing : Q2' 06 Q3' 06 Q4' 06 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days $239,400 $241,200 2,168 2,140 1,098 1,050 276 177 54 62 * Available as of Sep. 30, 2006. ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 3rd quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) 07728 $224,400-1 - 43 100.0% 08012 $239,700 5.46% 62-25.30% 56 98.3% 08014 $140,400-17.80% 4 33.33% 75 98.4% 08020 $241,500-25.76% 4-42.86% 74 95.4% 08026 $238,500-1 - 54 95.2% 08027 $225,200 20.88% 12-36.84% 57 97.6% 08028 $220,900 9.74% 76-6.17% 74 08051 $182,900-4.39% 59-18.06% 43 98.0% 08056 $329,900-4.07% 17 30.77% 84 08061 $227,500-15.99% 6-64.71% 79 94.8% 08062 $390,600 1.01% 54 3.85% 77 95.7% 11
Gloucester County, NJ Zip Code (Quarter) 08063 $161,700 18.55% 14 40.00% 43 99.4% 08066 $136,500 10.08% 34-20.93% 64 97.2% 08071 $222,000 26.14% 28-20.00% 44 08074 $330,000-1 - 430 97.1% 08075 $200,000-1 - 19 97.6% 08080 $268,500-0.74% 160-24.53% 68 08081 $271,700-0.77% 6-50.00% 63 98.6% 08085 $310,700 5.68% 69-12.66% 57 08086 $268,800 25.67% 23-14.81% 107 96.3% 08090 $224,900-1.53% 31-6.06% 75 96.6% 08093 $160,700-3.31% 31-24.39% 55 98.1% 08094 $245,100 7.26% 126-21.25% 62 08096 $205,700 1.58% 134-21.18% 51 98.3% 08097 $230,600 13.21% 10-28.57% 52 99.3% 08312 $209,500 9.34% 26-42.22% 85 97.8% 08322 $241,200-0.78% 35-12.50% 60 98.0% 08328 $188,900 11.18% 5 25.00% 42 99.9% 08343 $283,000 13.43% 9-25.00% 60 95.7% 08344 $187,300-29.51% 8 0.00% 56 08360 $218,000-3 - 98 96.5% 12
Buyer's Mercer County, NJ 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Labor : Employment increased by 593 jobs in Mercer County during July and August. However, the number of job seekers also increased. The combined effect of these two trends was an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 4.4% for the second quarter to 4.9% in the first two months of the third quarter. The solid job growth may help to offset the effect of rising mortgage rates on home sales. Housing : Q2' 06 Q3' 06 Q4' 06 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days $347,000 $358,500 3,274 3,082 1,374 1,266 163 124 69 68 * Available as of Sep. 30, 2006. ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 3rd quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) 08501 $690,000 64.32% 1 0.00% 248 106.2% 08512 $243,800 13.34% 22 15.79% 62 08520 $325,100-3.90% 124-24.39% 64 08525 $502,800-24.09% 10-65.52% 74 98.7% 08530 $409,000-25.57% 1 0.00% 7 98.6% 08534 $538,400 4.95% 62-18.42% 85 97.2% 08540 $727,200-17.88% 116-30.95% 67 96.6% 08542 $458,600-7.82% 11-21.43% 36 08550 $693,500 2.76% 89-16.82% 68 97.1% 08558 $1,879,000 11.91% 1 0.00% 154 100.0% 08560 $419,300-14.85% 10 0.00% 55 95.6% 13
Mercer County, NJ Zip Code (Quarter) 08609 $136,500 18.08% 25-7.41% 63 96.2% 08610 $217,600 3.03% 107-24.65% 72 08611 $115,200 2.04% 87-31.50% 68 94.6% 08618 $182,600 1.56% 76-31.53% 69 08619 $283,100 3.40% 81-25.00% 57 97.3% 08620 $368,600 19.10% 24-42.86% 70 08628 $293,400-1.74% 33-31.25% 82 96.9% 08629 $165,000 11.49% 41-31.67% 64 08638 $201,600 6.11% 59-35.87% 67 96.1% 08648 $342,000 0.94% 141-6.62% 64 97.1% 08690 $327,600 6.16% 77-11.49% 64 08691 $401,700 2.34% 68-29.17% 88 97.1% 14
Buyer's Salem County, NJ 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Labor : Employment increased by 43 jobs in Salem County during July and August. However, the number of job seekers also increased. The combined effect of these two trends was an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 5.1% for the second quarter to 5.3% in the first two months of the third quarter. The solid job growth may help to offset the effect of rising mortgage rates on home sales. Housing : Q2' 06 Q3' 06 Q4' 06 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days $211,400 $198,400 411 464 219 181 69 35 70 66 * Available as of Sep. 30, 2006. ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 3rd quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) 08001 $148,300-38.46% 3 200.00% 53 97.8% 08023 $125,000-1 - 63 105.9% 08067 $249,900 50.63% 1-87.50% 55 96.1% 08069 $125,700-4.99% 31-38.00% 57 95.8% 08070 $180,800 3.08% 47-16.07% 61 96.5% 08079 $159,400 9.55% 34 17.24% 86 96.7% 08098 $299,700 6.24% 32 10.34% 60 97.0% 08302 $96,900-48.87% 2-50.00% 193 95.0% 08318 $236,000-17.13% 26-16.13% 59 97.1% 08343 $337,400 86.20% 4 0.00% 66 96.6% 15
Buyer's Berks County, PA 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Labor : Employment increased by 1,299 jobs in Berks County during July and August. However, the number of job seekers also increased. The combined effect of these two trends was an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 4.4% for the second quarter to 4.5% in the first two months of the third quarter. The solid job growth may help to offset the effect of rising mortgage rates on home sales. Housing : Q2' 06 Q3' 06 Q4' 06 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days $179,800 $188,800 3,151 3,156 1,586 1,642 183 111 54 53 * Available as of Sep. 30, 2006. ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 3rd quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) 17569 $260,000 6.04% 1-66.67% 21 96.3% 18011 $422,100 43.91% 3 0.00% 21 94.2% 18041 $562,500-1 - 169 97.8% 18056 $250,000-1 - 13 100.0% 18062 $245,000 2.08% 3 200.00% 83 95.8% 19464 $130,000-1 - 35 92.9% 19503 $231,500 27.55% 4 33.33% 90 98.0% 19504 $445,200 39.47% 6-33.33% 128 98.1% 19505 $346,800 27.13% 5 66.67% 90 96.6% 19506 $238,700 0.76% 23-36.11% 59 101.5% 19507 $182,700-4.74% 6 0.00% 100 95.6% 16
Berks County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) 19508 $204,700 7.68% 57 21.28% 68 100.5% 19510 $234,700 15.28% 51-17.74% 37 101.6% 19512 $213,800 13.48% 48 2.13% 41 98.0% 19518 $304,700 10.36% 68-8.11% 72 101.0% 19520 $210,000-34.84% 2-33.33% 180 100.0% 19522 $201,900 1.56% 38-17.39% 70 97.0% 19526 $169,500 2.98% 38 15.15% 54 19529 $430,600-6 - 150 99.8% 19530 $198,600-7.67% 25-21.88% 37 96.9% 19533 $227,800 23.74% 30 50.00% 72 100.8% 19534 $166,700-41.59% 3-40.00% 62 92.7% 19536 $275,000 148.42% 1-50.00% 24 100.0% 19539 $252,400 16.47% 20 11.11% 45 96.9% 19540 $216,100 2.42% 49 4.26% 64 98.6% 19541 $209,900-24.11% 11-31.25% 42 19543 $287,300-0.38% 21-48.78% 49 99.2% 19547 $311,500-3.65% 12-7.69% 67 96.5% 19550 $148,700-2 - 47 99.2% 19551 $192,000 12.81% 12-14.29% 36 98.6% 19554 $152,300-16.78% 3-25.00% 90 19555 $168,700 25.15% 10 11.11% 86 99.1% 19559 $148,200-4 - 28 99.4% 19560 $164,300 15.79% 57 18.75% 51 99.5% 19562 $200,500 45.08% 6 0.00% 94 95.8% 19565 $199,800 3.47% 37-32.73% 37 100.9% 19567 $156,000 7.07% 20-25.93% 85 95.7% 19601 $65,800-6.13% 77 1.32% 46 95.3% 19602 $61,700 11.57% 46 9.52% 61 93.7% 19604 $69,400 11.94% 124 9.73% 39 96.6% 19605 $188,600 29.44% 121 7.08% 50 100.5% 19606 $175,800 3.35% 171 5.56% 56 99.0% 19607 $168,600 3.75% 105 0.00% 38 99.9% 19608 $258,600 5.25% 129-14.00% 50 99.9% 19609 $174,400 25.20% 49 0.00% 57 97.8% 19610 $249,500-0.12% 83 13.70% 56 96.6% 19611 $129,200 45.01% 51 45.71% 36 96.9% OTHER $113,000-1 - 133 98.3% 17
Buyer's Bucks County, PA 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Labor : Employment increased by 2,913 jobs in Bucks County during July and August. However, the number of job seekers also increased. The combined effect of these two trends was an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 3.9% for the second quarter to 4.2% in the first two months of the third quarter. The solid job growth may help to offset the effect of rising mortgage rates on home sales. Housing : Q2' 06 Q3' 06 Q4' 06 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days $365,200 $371,400 4,126 4,146 2,184 2,016 457 290 47 48 * Available as of Sep. 30, 2006. ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 3rd quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) 18036 $400,000 3.84% 5 0.00% 59 96.6% 18054 $320,000-26.27% 1 0.00% 13 97.0% 18055 $234,900-54.82% 1 0.00% 33 18073 $329,900 78.52% 1-50.00% 6 100.0% 18077 $242,000-49.22% 2-77.78% 4 98.8% 18901 $482,900 0.60% 191-26.54% 52 97.2% 18913 $650,000-31.58% 3 200.00% 131 89.3% 18914 $401,700 6.55% 73-31.78% 48 99.4% 18917 $312,300 36.26% 3-62.50% 59 97.3% 18923 $317,800-15.48% 8 100.00% 66 93.9% 18925 $574,500-4.68% 27 58.82% 49 97.3% 18
Bucks County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) 18928 $850,000-1 - 128 95.0% 18929 $484,300 16.42% 32-30.43% 49 98.2% 18930 $477,500 11.85% 1-88.89% 59 18931 $825,000-2 - 51 18938 $874,400 22.17% 68-32.67% 92 93.1% 18940 $456,300-4.08% 111-36.93% 40 18942 $735,000 73.84% 2-71.43% 123 96.1% 18944 $346,100 0.73% 71-22.83% 52 18946 $425,000-46.54% 1-50.00% 17 86.9% 18947 $419,000-6.03% 15-37.50% 58 97.3% 18951 $280,700 5.13% 125-30.94% 54 18954 $543,500 24.34% 32-23.81% 45 97.6% 18955 $236,800 30.68% 8 100.00% 71 99.1% 18956 $397,300-2 - 62 95.3% 18960 $290,700 11.76% 40-28.57% 55 18964 $432,900 44.35% 2 100.00% 67 103.1% 18966 $340,300 3.62% 125-22.84% 49 96.9% 18969 $235,700 11.65% 23-11.54% 28 18972 $425,200 0.02% 12-14.29% 104 97.6% 18974 $311,900 1.56% 133-25.28% 39 97.1% 18976 $364,000 5.54% 72-19.10% 49 98.3% 18977 $625,000 21.86% 23 35.29% 46 97.0% 19006 $425,300 17.39% 6 0.00% 105 97.8% 19007 $196,400 6.10% 46-42.50% 55 19020 $287,000 7.01% 124-25.30% 38 97.6% 19021 $222,500 14.40% 27-52.63% 37 19030 $254,400 4.31% 41 2.50% 33 19040 $260,000-1 - 40 100.0% 19047 $353,700 10.15% 102-5.56% 39 19053 $299,800 1.83% 73-10.98% 40 19054 $242,400 2.11% 60 30.43% 41 19055 $216,200 8.70% 45-23.73% 45 98.7% 19056 $293,400 10.09% 31-26.19% 47 98.3% 19057 $211,700 2.37% 61 0.00% 49 98.2% 19067 $380,100-2.71% 180-26.83% 46 97.3% 19440 $725,000 20.83% 3 50.00% 82 98.9% 19
Buyer's Chester County, PA 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Labor : Employment increased by 2,174 jobs in Chester County during July and August. However, the number of job seekers also increased. The combined effect of these two trends was an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 3.4% for the second quarter to 3.7% in the first two months of the third quarter. The solid job growth may help to offset the effect of rising mortgage rates on home sales. Housing : Q2' 06 Q3' 06 Q4' 06 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days $384,200 $384,600 4,197 4,156 1,946 1,872 669 367 49 53 * Available as of Sep. 30, 2006. ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 3rd quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) 17527 $235,000-2 - 46 98.7% 19073 $365,000-43.42% 16 100.00% 65 97.3% 19087 $384,800-5.15% 87-9.38% 46 96.8% 19145 $394,800-3 - 1 101.2% 19301 $404,300 16.92% 21-22.22% 37 97.8% 19310 $252,300 15.42% 8 14.29% 138 102.9% 19311 $364,800-7.83% 24-20.00% 99 98.2% 19312 $744,100 17.05% 52 36.84% 55 96.2% 19316 $385,000-1 - 96 98.7% 19317 $420,300 6.35% 16-30.43% 51 97.8% 19320 $240,600 3.00% 192-2.54% 50 98.4% 20
Chester County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) 19330 $570,500 72.41% 8-38.46% 43 90.5% 19333 $683,300 5.63% 40-6.98% 69 95.9% 19335 $355,100 3.68% 212-9.01% 64 99.6% 19341 $355,500-5.83% 53-18.46% 56 19343 $441,200 6.44% 25-7.41% 64 96.0% 19344 $280,400 18.61% 45 50.00% 42 103.2% 19348 $421,700-6.08% 84-33.33% 46 97.3% 19350 $477,900 4.94% 40-11.11% 48 19352 $397,300 3.54% 19-34.48% 40 104.4% 19353 $295,700-1 - 49 99.7% 19355 $549,500-0.61% 82-20.39% 55 96.6% 19360 $259,000-1 - 8 99.7% 19362 $355,000 3.68% 8 0.00% 61 94.5% 19363 $282,700 5.37% 56-1.75% 47 98.1% 19365 $209,000-20.41% 36-10.00% 56 96.9% 19372 $311,400 17.07% 10 11.11% 38 100.0% 19374 $182,500-24.27% 2 0.00% 112 100.0% 19375 $307,000-84.41% 1-50.00% 99 97.2% 19380 $440,400 15.80% 183-23.43% 43 19382 $375,300 1.16% 181-22.32% 47 19390 $324,600 12.01% 56 33.33% 56 99.2% 19415 $509,900-1 - 23 100.0% 19421 $237,100-40.73% 1 0.00% 4 103.1% 19425 $525,800-2.12% 53-32.05% 74 97.1% 19457 $223,700-2 - 5 19460 $326,400 12.16% 143-17.34% 46 97.0% 19465 $349,100 2.95% 53-20.90% 64 97.0% 19475 $303,700 7.81% 30-11.76% 73 98.0% 19481 $852,500 0.59% 4 100.00% 127 96.0% 19520 $342,600 14.01% 20 81.82% 33 93.8% 21
Buyer's Delaware County, PA 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Labor : Employment increased by 2,384 jobs in Delaware County during July and August. However, the number of job seekers also increased. The combined effect of these two trends was an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 4.4% for the second quarter to 4.8% in the first two months of the third quarter. The solid job growth may help to offset the effect of rising mortgage rates on home sales. Housing : Q2' 06 Q3' 06 Q4' 06 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days $255,400 $269,200 3,353 3,214 2,083 2,046 199 122 45 44 * Available as of Sep. 30, 2006. ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 3rd quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) 19003 $290,100-8.77% 29-3.33% 39 96.8% 19008 $378,500 9.77% 48-17.24% 56 97.6% 19010 $553,800 4.59% 42-35.38% 39 97.0% 19013 $68,600-17.25% 51-3.77% 70 96.0% 19014 $256,600 5.03% 88 1.15% 47 19015 $154,000-3.51% 77 4.05% 33 98.0% 19018 $168,400 9.78% 97-13.39% 42 98.1% 19022 $130,600 22.74% 12 50.00% 25 102.5% 19023 $97,800 11.52% 117 13.59% 40 98.9% 19026 $209,900 9.04% 137-0.72% 32 98.3% 19029 $156,100 6.34% 13 18.18% 65 98.8% 22
Delaware County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) 19032 $127,000 11.80% 45-30.77% 38 99.0% 19033 $220,400-0.63% 35 66.67% 32 97.6% 19036 $156,300 2.63% 59 1.72% 35 98.6% 19041 $1,160,800 101.42% 9-18.18% 129 95.5% 19043 $222,000 10.56% 6 0.00% 36 96.2% 19050 $163,000 9.84% 113-19.86% 57 98.9% 19061 $326,600 14.32% 120-7.69% 45 98.2% 19063 $388,800 9.92% 115-4.17% 42 97.0% 19064 $305,500 3.31% 73-6.41% 47 97.8% 19070 $245,700 1.24% 20-9.09% 62 96.0% 19073 $572,300 15.92% 50-27.54% 51 19074 $178,500-3.15% 13-23.53% 25 19076 $176,900 9.33% 23 43.75% 32 19078 $209,000-4.83% 35 59.09% 42 19079 $109,200 8.98% 34-30.61% 42 98.4% 19081 $330,200 10.14% 41-8.89% 48 19082 $116,500 8.07% 166-10.27% 32 19083 $308,500 7.94% 152-1.94% 45 19085 $1,288,100 46.36% 11-21.43% 31 95.1% 19086 $283,800-12.14% 48 2.13% 46 19087 $660,900-15.57% 46-28.13% 38 95.7% 19094 $171,200 9.46% 13 8.33% 66 99.5% 19096 $424,100 24.37% 6 20.00% 29 96.7% 19312 $935,000-62.60% 1 0.00% 9 98.4% 19317 $659,000 27.76% 30-26.83% 79 96.1% 19342 $394,200-3.55% 59 11.32% 67 97.0% 19373 $447,100-12.25% 7 75.00% 45 97.2% 19382 $628,700-18.30% 5-50.00% 75 98.1% 23
Buyer's Montgomery County, PA 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Labor : Employment increased by 3,630 jobs in Montgomery County during July and August. However, the number of job seekers also increased. The combined effect of these two trends was an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 3.7% for the second quarter to 3.9% in the first two months of the third quarter. The solid job growth may help to offset the effect of rising mortgage rates on home sales. Housing : Q2' 06 Q3' 06 Q4' 06 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days $339,700 $350,700 5,883 5,650 3,151 3,133 463 235 49 49 * Available as of Sep. 30, 2006. ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 3rd quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) 18041 $206,400 23.89% 23 9.52% 64 98.7% 18054 $383,300 78.78% 10-28.57% 73 18070 $280,000 40.07% 2 100.00% 24 96.6% 18073 $285,800 18.69% 30-18.92% 35 99.0% 18074 $279,400 26.94% 14-44.00% 34 96.0% 18076 $198,900 15.44% 17 41.67% 26 18915 $324,500-0.40% 2-89.47% 83 94.2% 18964 $297,500 20.59% 45-2.17% 36 18969 $375,300 22.85% 51-13.56% 59 105.1% 19001 $250,400-7.12% 73-13.10% 36 97.8% 19002 $457,900-9.02% 101-19.20% 46 96.7% 24
Montgomery County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) 19003 $416,300 11.97% 28 7.69% 76 99.9% 19004 $640,400 22.68% 83 97.62% 42 99.1% 19006 $469,000 7.52% 68-13.92% 53 95.3% 19010 $1,279,100 19.63% 34-10.53% 54 95.5% 19012 $306,200 20.50% 27-3.57% 44 98.8% 19025 $420,700-4.80% 22-15.38% 37 19027 $313,000 0.03% 67-25.56% 44 19031 $333,800-1.56% 11-45.00% 42 94.8% 19034 $636,400 57.80% 23 21.05% 30 97.3% 19035 $1,130,600-30.30% 13-38.10% 150 109.1% 19038 $307,400 0.10% 119-22.22% 46 97.6% 19040 $279,600 5.75% 58-23.68% 30 98.0% 19041 $805,500-22.91% 15-21.05% 66 92.7% 19044 $269,400-0.15% 63-4.55% 40 19046 $386,500-12.85% 67 11.67% 60 96.4% 19066 $614,200-2.92% 17-57.50% 45 95.9% 19072 $548,800-8.79% 32-15.79% 59 95.6% 19075 $311,500 1.90% 25 0.00% 25 99.3% 19083 $289,000-1 - 21 96.7% 19085 $1,336,000-27.09% 12-40.00% 61 94.5% 19087 $810,500 46.70% 19-24.00% 37 19090 $251,100 6.13% 67-14.10% 35 98.8% 19095 $353,800 19.73% 17 0.00% 34 19096 $578,700 5.74% 53-11.67% 49 19401 $177,700 14.87% 138-3.50% 56 19403 $296,900 14.99% 185-8.42% 43 19405 $198,600-14.51% 21 0.00% 73 19406 $307,200 8.28% 70-10.26% 33 19409 $849,900-1 - 40 100.0% 19422 $400,500-11.82% 100 31.58% 52 19426 $362,100 7.04% 180-17.05% 63 99.0% 19428 $315,600 0.48% 83-11.70% 46 19437 $713,300-9.54% 3-25.00% 31 95.6% 19438 $316,200-7.41% 89-20.54% 46 97.8% 19440 $312,700-3.10% 40-46.67% 39 19444 $388,800 6.81% 36-7.69% 31 19446 $313,200-0.54% 200-16.32% 45 25
Montgomery County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) 19453 $147,900 5.79% 14 55.56% 31 99.4% 19454 $316,500 13.00% 142-1.39% 49 98.0% 19456 $273,100 12.39% 6 500.00% 36 99.7% 19460 $410,200 34.27% 12 9.09% 80 93.4% 19462 $347,900 1.61% 46-17.86% 56 96.0% 19464 $179,400 2.28% 228-15.56% 54 98.8% 19465 $235,500-1 - 121 19468 $268,100-0.56% 92-35.66% 65 98.8% 19473 $317,800 0.67% 76-3.80% 54 99.6% 19474 $269,800-0.41% 6 0.00% 44 97.2% 19490 $828,800-11.52% 2-33.33% 21 120.6% 19492 $282,500-2 - 11 99.1% 19504 $321,000-9.32% 7 133.33% 98 90.7% 19505 $270,000-1 - 229 90.0% 19512 $208,600 4.56% 2-71.43% 13 100.5% 19525 $305,900-3.44% 41-8.89% 70 26
Buyer's Philadelphia County, PA 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Labor : Employment increased by 5,182 jobs in Philadelphia County during July and August. However, the number of job seekers also increased. The combined effect of these two trends was an increase in the average monthly unemployment rate from 6.3% for the second quarter to 6.7% in the first two months of the third quarter. The solid job growth may help to offset the effect of rising mortgage rates on home sales. Housing : Q2' 06 Q3' 06 Q4' 06 (Forecast) # Homes on the * # ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days $179,700 $181,600 10,919 10,994 5,013 4,485 131 84 51 55 * Available as of Sep. 30, 2006. ** May not add to total of zip codes *** During the first two months of 3rd quarter. Zip Code (Quarter) 19102 $287,100-36.85% 9-50.00% 42 97.2% 19103 $605,500-1.40% 68 0.00% 84 97.8% 19104 $157,300-35.03% 28-33.33% 62 94.6% 19106 $454,800-29.15% 50-23.08% 82 96.5% 19107 $415,200 1.05% 39-30.36% 108 96.9% 19111 $178,200 3.60% 203-25.09% 50 97.0% 19114 $204,000 4.72% 92-16.36% 39 19115 $280,200 5.58% 105 1.94% 51 97.6% 19116 $227,600-2.36% 60-38.14% 58 96.4% 19118 $477,300-16.23% 36 20.00% 45 96.4% 19119 $270,600 17.45% 99-16.10% 39 98.7% 27
Philadelphia County, PA Zip Code (Quarter) 19120 $93,500 10.26% 208-10.34% 42 98.2% 19121 $165,300 142.73% 33 43.48% 78 101.7% 19122 $143,400 17.73% 20-23.08% 61 95.9% 19123 $272,700-7.24% 42 2.44% 111 95.5% 19124 $95,300 9.79% 238-27.22% 41 19125 $154,100 2.66% 130 9.24% 69 94.5% 19126 $138,000 7.90% 40 5.26% 60 99.3% 19127 $257,200-5.68% 45-29.69% 62 96.3% 19128 $241,100 3.30% 155-21.72% 46 98.1% 19129 $233,200-4.23% 40-2.44% 62 19130 $396,900 24.54% 170 45.30% 100 97.2% 19131 $134,200 35.69% 73-18.89% 58 97.1% 19132 $44,000 6.02% 39 30.00% 53 91.7% 19133 $50,100 24.63% 14 55.56% 45 97.6% 19134 $70,200 7.67% 186-9.71% 53 96.3% 19135 $123,800 9.17% 154-24.14% 48 19136 $143,300 5.52% 122-17.01% 54 97.6% 19137 $131,000 25.12% 23 0.00% 41 95.5% 19138 $84,000-3.67% 103-6.36% 57 98.3% 19139 $76,300 3.81% 61 0.00% 57 95.7% 19140 $52,300 6.09% 88 18.92% 69 95.0% 19141 $86,800 20.72% 58 38.10% 48 98.3% 19142 $69,200 14.95% 122 48.78% 52 96.5% 19143 $113,400 0.27% 127 35.11% 46 96.3% 19144 $116,500-1.44% 96 20.00% 55 96.5% 19145 $133,000 14.95% 146 1.39% 60 95.0% 19146 $235,800 5.13% 181-5.24% 61 96.5% 19147 $362,400-0.08% 186-21.52% 66 96.3% 19148 $147,900 3.43% 168-11.11% 63 94.4% 19149 $135,800-5.43% 219-39.50% 46 97.2% 19150 $150,200 15.90% 64 10.34% 40 98.3% 19151 $120,700 1.34% 110-0.90% 40 98.8% 19152 $195,100-6.78% 106-13.82% 51 19153 $121,000-0.74% 36 16.13% 44 99.1% 19154 $197,200 7.00% 93-19.83% 44 98.3% 28
Trends A Failure to Communicate By Ken Fears Manager of Regional Economics Over the last five years, the median home price has grown tremendously. Nationally, the median price rose 25% over this period, but some markets grew in excess of 200%. This run up in prices was precipitated by the sharp fall in mortgage rates from 2000 through 2005, which improved affordability. But over time, prices were bid up to the point that affordability fell to its long term trend. In some markets, however, the feeding frenzy caused affordability to fall below the long term average. Today, affordability is squeezed and home buyers are focused, more than ever, on the bottom line; the monthly mortgage payment. While prices have reached dizzying heights, what matters to buyers is this simple actuarial accounting. Currently monthly payments are too far out of bounds for many first time and trade up buyers. Sellers should be keen to note this trend, but as of yet they have resisted. While non-price concessions are on the rise (it is hard to quantify this as there is no data to track, but regular discussions with brokers and agents supports the claim that this trend is widespread), price concessions have been few and far between. Sellers, who ve seen their neighbors make tremendous profits over the last 6 years expect to reap the same reward. In fact, they often come into the process with a figure in their head of what they expect to make. This seller psychology makes it hard to convince them of alternative pricing strategies that could save them money and consternation in the long term. Currently, about 70% of the markets around the U.S. are experiencing declining sales, while 30% are still growing. Astonishingly, while sales have fallen, in most markets prices continue to rise! How can this happen? By refusing to take concessions, sellers are driving buyers to the sidelines. The best properties are moved at the higher prices, while the rest sit. Truthfully, some sellers, particularly trade up buyers, are in a bind where they have purchased their trade up property expecting to be able to use the proceeds from their home on the market. With affordability stretched, they are likely to take a loss if they don t realize all of the gains from their first property. Consequently, they face an immediate bite to equity and may choose to cling to a high asking price. But this is a special case and hardly typical of all sellers. Equity Appreciation Vs. Q3 2006 Percent Gain 2000 $153,560 $118,893 77.4% 2001 $162,587 $109,867 67.6% 2002 $182,028 $90,426 49.7% 2003 $200,659 $71,794 35.8% 2004 $224,505 $47,948 21.4% 2005 $252,756 $19,698 7.8% Q3 2006 $272,454 $0 0.0% If sellers are forced to take a mild concession, how much would that mean? The strong price appreciation over the last five years in the area covered by TREND MLS has created lots of equity for homeowners. For example, if you had bought your home 5 years ago and sold it at the current median home price of $272,454, you would have realized an appreciation of $109,867, or a gain of 67.6% from your purchase. However, if prices were to fall 5% to $258,831, then the equity gain would still be $96,244, or an appreciation of 59.2% on your investment. For those few buyers who are using new equity in their current home to trade up, a concession may be painful. But, the majority of buyers still hold large equity gains in their homes to use as a buffer. Taking a small concession now will save sellers the consternation of longer days on the market and a potentially larger concession down the road. Currently, demand has been driven to the side lines as buyers wait for mortgage rates or prices to moderate and bring monthly payments in line with what they can afford. But with interest rates high, 6.41% in September of 2006, and unlikely to fall further, prices must come down further to entice buyers back to the market. If this stalemate between buyers and sellers takes too long, buyers could leave the market all together, which would require further concessions by sellers to corner the remaining buyers. In short, a small pin prick now is better than worse later. 29
Chief Economist s Commentary Waiting in the Wings David Lereah, Chief Economist The U.S. housing sector has entered uncharted territory. Despite historically low mortgage rates and a growing economy, it is contracting. What is going on here? This market anomaly is defying the lessons of Economics 101. For the past century, every major downturn in the housing sector has been attributed to rising interest rates and a sluggish economy. Everyone knows that higher mortgage rates raise the costs of financing. And job losses due to a lack of economic growth can diminish many households financial health and so not be able to qualify to purchase a home. But low-cost financing and jobs are plentiful today both 30-year mortgage rates and the nation s unemployment rate are hovering near historic lows, about 6.6 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, the housing market is cracking. And that crack is widening. In former boom markets that are now cooling such as Miami, San Diego and Washington, DC home sales have dropped substantially, posting 15 to 40 percent declines. For the nation as a whole, existing home sales are expected to drop by 8 percent by the end of the year, while new home sales are expected to fall by 16 percent. Adding insult to injury, housing inventories continue to mount. The nation s months supply of homes has risen sharply to over 7 months from 4 months in just a half a year s time, reflecting an excess supply of homes available for sale. Many of the reasons for today s real estate slide are obvious: home values got too high, affordability deteriorated and the homebuying public lost confidence. Households and investors are now sitting comfortably and patiently on the sidelines waiting to get back into the real estate game, but only when property prices come down to more suitable levels. The good news is that prices are beginning to soften. Price growth (year over year) turned negative in the West and Northeast regions of the nation during July. Hopefully, this trend can continue for the next several months. With price reductions come gains in home sales. If prices continue to fall, the decline in sales might have bottomed out in July. So prices now need to take center stage. Sellers need to abandon unreasonable expectations about the value of their homes. But there should be few worries for consumers. Most homeowners today have enjoyed substantial equity gains on their properties during the real estate boom years. Cutting prices by 5 or 10 percent will not wipe out their home equity gains. Those of us involved in the real estate profession find ourselves in the awkward position of favoring price softening. REALTORS are asking (pleading) sellers to accept market realities and reduce their listing price. And it is important to remember that the true measure of health in a nation s housing markets is sales growth, not price appreciation. The housing sector and the U.S. economy need home sales (transactions) more than home price appreciation. Every time a home is purchased, other industries, such as furniture and appliances are positively impacted. (Economists call this the multiplier effect.) You purchase a home; you then need to purchase furniture, appliances, and so on. In fact, a healthy housing market impacts about 20 percent of gross domestic product GDP. Once sales pick up, housing inventories drop. That places welcome upward pressure on home prices once again. And the cycle of life in the real estate markets as we know it, continues. A price correction reduces the severity of the contraction (declining home sales) as well as its duration. Today s low mortgage rates and a growing economy provide a favorable backdrop for buyers and investors to purchase property at a right and affordable (low enough) price. Of course, some cooling metro markets will correct faster than others will. For example, households living in a healthy metropolitan area experiencing solid economic growth, job and income gains, and positive migration numbers are more likely to purchase property again at the right prices than households living in a metro area that is experiencing job losses and a loss of population. Washington, DC, which boasts a healthy local economy, will likely need a smaller price decline to stop the sales bleeding than some metropolitan areas in California where affordability conditions are forcing households to move to other locations. Going forward, restoring buyer confidence is the key to ending today s real estate contraction. Only price reductions can bring confidence back to the market. So let s give a round of applause for prices taking center stage for a brief turn. The sooner home prices drop, the sooner we can stop the bleeding. Expect home prices to fall for most of the remainder of this year. Although it may seem to go against your better judgment, this is a good thing for the long-term health of housing. 30
Forecast The Forecast By Lawrence Yun, Senior Research Forecaster Home prices have come down. The 2.2% national price decline in September (from a year ago) marks the first back-to-back months of decline since 1990. In some markets, prices have been cut by more than 10%. Such price declines are very rare. We have to go back to the late 1980s and early 1990s to find an example of a sharp price correction. In Los Angeles, prices declined from $224,600 in the second quarter of 1991 to $167,100 in the fourth quarter of 1996. Los Angeles prices returned to their peak only in 2000. The catalyst for the decline was major job cuts particularly in industries affected by cutbacks in federal defense spending after the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the subsequent disintegration of the Soviet Union. From peak (1989) to trough (1994) a total of 633,600 jobs were lost in the region. The Houston housing market also crumbled under the weight of heavy job losses in the 1980s, the result of the oil price collapse and the savings and loan scandal. Home prices corrected by 32% in Houston. But the current weakening in home prices, in most part of the country, is not due to any major job cuts that force people to sell their homes at any price. In fact, job creation has been quite robust in those markets currently experiencing large price declines (aside from the Detroit region). Florida added 243,300 net new jobs in the past 12 months. The D.C. region has been consistently adding about 70,000 net new jobs over the 12-month time span for the past three years -- essentially a stadium full of people with new jobs every year (and causing similar stadium-related traffic jams). Only prolonged job losses, subsequent forced home sales and rising foreclosures will lead to sustained home price declines. So what s going on with the price declines? It s the fact that the artificially high demand for homebuying has dissipated. What I mean by artificial is those buyers who were looking to net quick bucks from flipping properties. At the same time, with prices falling these non-owner occupied homes are being put on the market. That, in turn, artificially elevates housing inventory levels. Higher inventory (more supply) lessens pressure on prices. Hence, prices fall even as the job market continues to steamroll. It will take several months for inventory to ease back down to more manageable, balanced levels. When that happens, home prices will quickly re-enter positive territory. Some have a hard time accepting this common sense logic. UCLA s Anderson School predicted prices to fall 30% in Las Vegas. That was in 2002. (In fact, home prices in Vegas rose from $160,000 in 2002 to $319,000 currently.) Moody s Economy.com has been getting a lot of headlines recently about its home price forecasts. They call for nation-wide price declines of 3.5% and much more significant declines in some local markets: Las Vegas to correct by 13%, and Cape Coral, Florida to fall by 19%. Our forecast is for price to begin increasing in many U.S. markets from mid-2007 if not sooner - primarily due to price reductions in combination with job gains. As to the Philadelphia region, the demand will inevitably pick up after few quarters due to continuing job growth. The best guess is for the sales to slowly turn positive by the spring of 2007. For all of 2007, home sales will rise by 2% compared to 9% projected drop in 2006. In order to work off some excess inventory, home prices will rise very modestly in 2007 (around 2% to 4%) for the second consecutive year. 31
Forecast Economic and Housing Outlook: November 2006 2005 2006 2007 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 2005 2006 2007 U.S. Economy Annual Growth Rate Real GDP 4.2 1.8 5.6 2.6 1.9 2.5 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.6 3.9 3.2 3.3 2.9 Nonfarm Payroll Employment 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.2 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.0 Consumer Prices 5.5 3.2 2.2 5.0 2.6 1.0 2.2 2.3 1.7 1.8 2.7 3.4 3.4 2.1 Real Disposable Income -0.6 5.5 4.6 1.7 5.1 5.0 4.1 2.8 2.4 2.1 3.6 1.2 3.4 3.7 Consumer Confidence 99 96 106 107 104 106 106 105 106 106 80 100 106 106 Percent Unemployment Rate 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.9 Interest Rates, Percent Fed Funds Rate 3.5 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.8 1.4 3.2 5.0 5.1 3-Month T-Bill Rate 3.4 3.8 4.4 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.5 1.4 3.1 4.8 4.8 Prime Rate 6.4 7.0 7.4 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.8 4.3 6.2 8.0 8.1 Corporate Aaa Bond Yield 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.8 6.0 6.0 5.6 5.2 5.6 5.9 10-Year Government Bond 4.2 4.5 4.6 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.1 4.3 4.3 4.8 5.0 30-Year Government Bond 4.4 4.7 4.6 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.6 4.9 5.2 Mortgage Rates, percent 30-Year Fixed Rate 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 5.8 5.9 6.5 6.7 1-Year Adjustable 4.5 5.1 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 3.9 4.5 5.6 5.6 National Housing Indicators Thousands Existing Single-Family Sales 7,180 6,943 6,790 6,687 6,211 6,207 6,335 6,406 6,391 6,462 6,779 7,075 6,445 6,395 New Single-Family Sales 1,297 1,280 1,111 1,124 1,003 997 978 985 972 981 1,203 1,283 1,061 979 Housing Starts 2,101 2,060 2,123 1,873 1,680 1,696 1,679 1,683 1,651 1,618 1,956 2,068 1,843 1,658 Single-Family Units 1,748 1,718 1,747 1,530 1,348 1,356 1,322 1,322 1,278 1,257 1,611 1,716 1,495 1,295 Multifamily Units 353 342 376 343 332 340 357 361 372 360 345 352 348 363 Residential Construction* 620 619 619 601 568 543 535 533 532 527 560 608 582 532 Percent Change -- Year Ago Existing Single-Family Sales 6.5 0.9-2.2-7.0-13.5-10.6-6.7-4.2 2.9 4.1 9.8 4.4-8.9-0.8 New Single-Family Sales 11.9 3.1-11.5-12.5-22.7-22.1-11.9-12.4-3.1-1.6 10.8 6.7-17.3-7.8 Housing Starts 6.3 4.8 2.6-9.3-20.0-17.6-20.9-10.1-1.7-4.6 5.2 5.7-10.9-10.0 Single-Family Units 6.5 6.7 2.6-10.4-22.9-21.1-24.3-13.6-5.1-7.3 6.6 6.5-12.9-13.4 Multifamily Units 4.9-3.7 2.9-3.8-5.9-0.5-5.1 5.2 12.0 6.0-0.9 1.9-1.2 4.3 Residential Construction 9.1 9.0 6.1-1.5-8.5-12.3-13.4-11.2-6.4-2.9 10.3 8.6-4.2-8.7 National Home Prices Thousands of Dollars Existing Home Prices 227.3 225.3 218.7 226.7 223.5 222.0 219.1 229.9 227.5 227.5 195.4 219.6 223.0 226.4 New Home Prices 236.6 240.1 244.8 242.2 237.0 238.5 245.5 245.6 242.3 244.7 221.0 240.9 240.5 244.5 Percent Change -- Year Ago Existing Home Prices 14.2 13.4 9.5 3.0-1.7-1.5 0.2 1.4 1.8 2.5 9.3 12.4 1.6 1.5 New Home Prices 10.5 5.4 6.5 5.2 0.2-0.7 0.3 1.4 2.2 2.6 13.3 9.0-0.2 1.6 Local Region Payroll Jobs (in thousands) 2769.8 2812.3 2761.3 2819.0 2803.4 2840.4 2786.2 2847.2 2837.0 2877.3 2746.9 2774.5 2806.0 2836.9 Home Sales 28564 22119 17948 25678 24067 19797 17392 26063 24957 20628 94414 95682 87490 89040 Home Prices (in thousand $) 269.2 255.1 248.4 267.2 273.7 257.6 250.4 270.4 281.1 266.9 225.5 253.4 263.0 268.7 Percent Change -- Year Ago Jobs 1.1% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% Home Sales 4.0% -5.2% -0.1% -5.0% -15.7% -10.5% -3.1% 1.5% 3.7% 4.2% 12.6% 1.3% -8.6% 1.8% Home Prices 13.2% 13.3% 7.9% 6.5% 1.7% 1.0% 0.8% 1.2% 2.7% 3.6% 12.0% 12.4% 3.8% 2.2% Quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted annual rates. * Billion dollars Source: Forecast produced using Macroeconomic Advisers quarterly model of the U.S. economy. Assumptions and simulations by Dr. David Lereah and Dr. Lawrence Yun. 32
This table reflects data available through September 5, 2006. Economic Monitor Monthly Indicator Recent Statistics Likely Direction Over the Next Six Months Forecast Existing Home Sales fell 4.1% in June to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.33 million units the lowest resale pace since January 2004. Existing home inventory rose to 3.86 million a 7.3 month supply. The median price of $230,000 in July was only 0.9% higher from one year ago. New Home Sales also declined in July, dipping 4.3% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.07 million units. So far in 2006 new home sales are 14% below last year s pace. The inventory of unsold new homes rose modestly to a 6.5 month supply. May 6,710 June 6,600 July 6,330 May 1,130 June 1,120 July 1,072 Much lower than a year ago but now stabilizing New and higher priced homes are more sensitive to the higher interest rate environment Housing Starts fell 2.5% in July to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.795 million units their lowest level since November of 2004. Builder s sentiment has continued to fall, and rising constructions costs are cutting into business profitability both implying lower new construction activity in thecoming months. Housing Affordability NAR s housing affordability index was 102.8 in July, continuing a fall that began in February of this year. Increases in most of the major components of the affordability index interest rates, qualifying income, and the median existing-home sales price contributed to the decline. Purchase Applications dipped in August. The Mortgage Bankers Association purchase application index averaged 383.2 per week in August. Both existing and new home sales are expected to cool down. With the current 30-year fixed rate at its lowest since spring, more refinancing activities are anticipated. Employment The economy added 128,000 new jobs in August, and the three-month average is just as unimpressive at 128,000. About 200,000 net additions would be considered healthy. Still, in the past 12 months, 1.71 million jobs have been added to the economy. May 1,953 June 1,841 July 1,795 May 111.9 June 108.7 July 104.5 June 412.0 July 408.8 Aug 403.5 June 134 July 121 Aug 128 Inventory needs to be worked off before builders regain confidence Home price appreciation measurably slowing, but modestly higher rates keep affordability on an even keel Mortgages for existing home sales are stabilizing but new home mortgages continue to decline Subpar economic and employment growth for the next four quarters Mortgage Rates The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 6.55% in August its lowest level since April. Rates are expected to remain below 7% throughout the rest of the year. The one-year adjustable rate fell to 5.66% from 5.79% in July. Inflation The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% in July. The core index (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2%, lower than expected and below June s core index figure. The CPI will continue to grow at a projected average monthly rate of 0.4% for the next three months. June 6.68 July 6.76 Aug 6.55 May 0.4% June 0.2% July 0.4% Up, but only modestly Prices at the pump are finally declining,while core prices are mostly under control Notes: All rate are seasonally adjusted. New home sales, existing home sales, and housing starts are shown in thousands. Employment growth is shown as month-to-month change in thousands. Inflation is shown as the month-to-month change in the Consumer Price Index. Sources: NAR, Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association 33