Jim & Jim McKenna LBA & LSA 631-974-9151 TheJims.com
Return on Investment January 2000 March 2013 MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
Pending Home Sales 110 105 100 95 90 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan NAR 2/2013
Pending Home Sales 110 105 100 100 = Historically Healthy Level 95 January 2012 January 2013 90 85 January 2011 January 2012 80 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan NAR 2/2013
New Home SALES January 2013 Sales +28.9% +15.6% Compared to December 2012 Compared to January 2012 Census 3/1/2013
While gross domestic product is expected to be negatively impacted by all the uncertainty surrounding the nation's impending debt ceiling debate and the risk of sequestration, the housing sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) said. Political Uncertainty Housing Wire 2/25/2013
Month s Inventory of Homes for Sale 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory 5.0 4.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan NAR 2/2013
Month s Inventory of Homes for Sale 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 2011 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 2012 1.0 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan NAR 2/2013
Month s Inventory of Homes for Sale 7.0 6.0 5-6 Months = Normal Market 5.0 4.0 < 4 Months = Sellers Market 3.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan NAR 2/2013
Calculated Risk 2/2013
New Home Inventory Calculated Risk 2/2013
Months Supply & Impact on Price Months Market Pricing 1-4 Sellers Appreciation 5-6 Even The Norm 7+ Buyers Depreciation
FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 2012 1Q HPI Report
FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 2012 2Q HPI Report
FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 2012 3Q HPI Report
FHFA Regional Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 2012 4Q HPI Report
1 st Quarter 2 nd Quarter 3 rd Quarter 4 th Quarter
FHFA State Home Prices (year-over-year) FHFA 2/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 8.0% Year-over-Year Change in Prices 6.8% 6.0% 5.5% 4.0% 3.6% 4.3% 2.0% 0.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May -0.5% 0.6% 1.1% 2.0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -2.0% -4.0% -3.9% -3.5% -2.5% -1.7% -6.0% S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
Year-over-Year Price Increases Index Increase Case Shiller 6.8% LPS 5.8% CoreLogic 8.3% FHFA (4 th Quarter) 5.5%
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year Atlanta 9.9% Boston 3.6% Charlotte 5.3% Chicago 2.2% Cleveland 2.9% Dallas 6.5% Denver 8.5% Detroit 13.6% Las Vegas 12.9% Los Angeles 10.2% Miami 10.6% Minneapolis 12.2% New York -0.5 Phoenix 23.0% Portland 6.5% San Diego 9.2% San Francisco 14.4% Seattle 8.2% Tampa 7.2% Washington 5.9% S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
Home Prices in the Short Term 150.00 145.00 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 PROJECTED? 140.00 135.00 130.00 May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Metropolitan Area M-o-M Metropolitan Area M-o-M Atlanta 0.3 Boston 0.1 Charlotte -0.4 Chicago -0.7 Cleveland -0.1 Dallas -0.1 Denver -0.3 Detroit -0.6 Las Vegas 1.8 Los Angeles 1.1 Miami 0.8 Minneapolis -0.1 New York -0.4 Phoenix 0.9 Portland -0.5 San Diego 0.4 San Francisco 0.7 Seattle -0.5 Tampa 0.2 Washington -0.1 S&P Case Shiller 2/2013
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History 5.25 5 4.75 4.5 2/2011 3/2013 4.25 4 3.75 3.5 3.25 Federal Reserve 3/1/2013
Mortgage Rates Moving Forward After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are expected to creep up slowly in 2013, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)predicted. MarketWatch 10/24/2012 The MBA projects 30 year mortgage rates will hit 4.4% by the end of the year.
Mortgage Rates - 30 year fixed 3.6 12/01/2012 3/1/2013 3.55 3.5 3.45 3.4 3.35 3.3 Freddie Mac 3/1/2013
Impact of Increasing Rates Price Rate P&I 200,000 3.4 886.96 200,000 4.4 1,001.52 Monthly Savings $114.56
Bernanke on Interest Rates If, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) anticipates, the economic recovery continues at a moderate pace, with unemployment slowly declining and inflation expectations remaining near 2 percent, then long-term interest rates would be expected to rise gradually toward more normal levels over the next several years The precise timing and pace of the increase will depend importantly on how economic conditions develop, however, and is subject to considerable two-sided uncertainty. Federal Reserve 3/1/2013
Housing America s Future: New Directions for National Policy The report proposed a reformed system of housing finance in which the private sector plays a far more prominent role in bearing credit risk while promoting a greater diversity of funding sources available for mortgage financing. The problems we face in housing are so significant and so urgent today that inaction is no longer a viable option It is therefore the commission s hope that 2013 will be the year that Congress and the administration finally elevate housing to the top of the national policy agenda and give housing the dedicated attention it deserves. Bipartisan Policy Center 3/1/2013
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35% 35% 30% 25% 23% 20% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan NAR 2/2013
Shadow Inventory Shadow inventory never hit full force, so now I think we re at a point where the pendulum has swung completely the other way and the housing market needs more inventory, so 2013 would be a serendipitous time for banks to release that inventory. Daren Blomquist, VP of RealtyTrac He expects 600,000 REOs in 2013 and short sales to exceed the 2012 number, which will likely be around 1 million. DSNews 2/22/2013
FORECLOSURES CNN Money 2013 100 hardest hit zips in 2012
CoreLogic 2/28/2013
Short Sales Moving Forward Short sales don t seem to be going away anytime soon...i think 2013 and 2014 are going to be all about the short sale. Wingspan Portfolio Advisors CEO Steven Horne I think we re going to set a new record for short sales in 2013. Rick Sharga, EVP of Carrington Mortgage HousingWire 2/21/2013