Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2017
PwC ULI Outlook on Trends 38th 500/1,500 Who? A record total Thank You!
? How would you characterize the expected profitability of your real estate business in 2017? A. Good-Excellent B. Fair C. Abysmal-Poor
How would you describe the 2017 real estate market? Here is what 900 respondents said Measured Treacherous Uncertain Content Competitive Balanced Risky Confusing Troublesome Cautious Opportunity Growing Frenzy Neutral Overheated Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2017
Expectations hitting a plateau? 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% Good - excellent 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Fair Abysmal - poor 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Abysmal poor Fair Good excellent 5
Expected profitability 2017 1.9% 16.8% 81.3% Abysmal - poor Fair Good - Excellent Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2017 6
Emerging Trends in 2017 A Kinder Gentler Real Estate Cycle? Optionality: the new Flexibility Labor Scarcity reflected in Construction Costs Housing affordability: Local Government Steps Up How to Gain Entry Beyond the Velvet Rope Ready for Augmented Reality? Transformation through Location 7
A Kinder, Gentler Real Estate Cycle? 8
A Kinder Gentler Real Estate Cycle? Where is the new commercial supply? Vacancy % 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 80 00 average Vacancy Completions % 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 6.0 4.0 2.0-01 16 average Completions 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 15 16 Vacancy % Completions as % of Inventory Average 1980-2001 Average 2001-2016 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 - Reis, Inc : Sum of industrial, office and retail property 9
13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 A Kinder Gentler Real Estate Cycle? A Kinder Gentler Real Estate Cycle? Market begins to moderate on its own 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Banks and CRE Lending % of Banks Reporting Tightening Underwriting Standards % of Banks reporting Stronger Loan Demand 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% CRE Transaction Volume Y/Y change in $ volume Federal Reserve Board: Survey of Current Lending Conditions, Real Capital Analytics 10
A Kinder Gentler Real Estate Cycle? Is the real estate market autocorrecting? A Kinder Gentler Real Estate Cycle? bird call Buzzfeed.com 11
Optionality: the New Flexibility 12
Optionality-the New flexibility Optionality Not just one user profile 13
Optionality-the New flexibility Optionality At the same time, not just one use E(verything)-loft Washington Post 14
Optionality-the New flexibility At the same time, not just one use Crosstown Concourse Memphis, Tennessee Venting through MF or office to accommodate potential restaurants. Every conceivable use; same entrance. 15
Labor Scarcity reflected in Construction Costs 16
Labor Scarcity reflected in Construction Costs Declining Labor Force Participation Rate Labor scarcity in construction costs Male Forecast Total Female Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey ; Moody s Analytics forecasts. 17
Labor Scarcity reflected in Construction Costs Construction employment volatility Labor scarcity in construction costs 8.00 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 3.15 million jobs added in 168 months 2.28 million jobs lost in 56 months 1.21 million added in 67 months 5.00 4.50 4.00 Recession Construction Emp Bureau of Labor Statistics 18
Labor Scarcity reflected in Construction Costs Construction labor gets hard to find Labor scarcity in construction costs 12-Month moving average % 25.0 20.0 Construction unemployment rate $1,200 $1,150 $1,100 15.0 10.0 5.0 Weekly earnings $1,050 $1,000 $950 $900 $850 0.0 Dec 2000 Dec 2001 Dec 2002 Dec 2003 Dec 2004 Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Recession Construction Unemployment rate Weekly Earnings Dec 2015 $800 Bureau of Labor Statistics 19
20 Hardest positions to fill % of respondents who are having trouble filling All hourly craft positions Carpenters Electricians Plumbers, roofers Concrete workers 60% 53% 50% 49% 69% Salaried field/office positions Project mgrs/supervisors Estimators Engineers 38%/33% 50% 31% 28% 0% 25% 50% 75% Source: AGC Member Survey, August 2016
21 How contractors are coping with worker shortages Raising base pay Providing incentives/bonuses Increasing contributions/benefits In-house training 48% Overtime hours 47% Subcontractors 39% Engage w/ career-building prog. 37% Staffing company 24% Labor-saving equip., tools, mach. 21% Unions 18% Lean construction 15% Offsite prefabrication 13% Building information modeling (BIM) 20% 27% 22% 21% 48% 43% Hourly Salaried 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Labor Scarcity reflected in Construction Costs So what is the solution? Labor scarcity in construction costs 22
Housing affordability: Local Government Steps Up 23
Housing affordability: Local Government Steps Up Housing affordability Income growth just can t keep up with existing home prices Y/Y Change 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Affordability 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 Median HH Income Median Existing Home Prices Affordability National Association of Realtors, Bureau of Economic Analysis 24
Housing affordability: Local Government Steps Up Shortage of homes will make it difficult for affordability to see significant improvement 000s SAAR 1,600 Housing affordability Cumulative (000s SAAR) 4,000 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200-2,000 - (2,000) (4,000) (6,000) (8,000) Cumulative Surplus/Deficit Hhouseholds Housing Completions US Census Bureau 25
Housing affordability: Local Government Steps Up Housing affordability Household formation > new supply Shortfall of 7 million 26
Housing affordability: Local Government Steps Up Housing affordability Housing costs are an increasing burden in more markets: Success can have a price Payment < 30% of HH Income Payment >30% and < 45% of HH Income Payment > 45% of HH Income National Association of Realtors, Bureau of Economic Analysis, PwC Research 27
Housing affordability: Local Government Steps Up So what is the solution? Labor scarcity in construction costs No one solution 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% Local government: Rediscoveries Innovations with NOAH
How to gain entry beyond the velvet rope 29
How to Gain Entry Beyond the Velvet Rope 30
Transformation through location choice Transformation by (Private) Locational Choice Developments that are making a difference South Lake Union Revitalization, Live/Work/Play environment Pearl District Revitalization bringing residents to the urban core LoDo Example of public/private cooperation Detroit Spurring additional development LA Live Supports other CBD projects Gaslamp Kicked off CBD revitalization Downtown Project Revitalize and encourage diversity in the area Hudson Yards Creating a destination 31
Ready for Augmented Reality? 32
Ready for Augmented Reality? Ready for augmented reality? 33
2017 potential best bets Be a problem solver in the middle of the capital stack Adjacencies Place yourself in the shade of the growing tree Take advantage of enhancements in construction technology Solve the e-commerce last mile equation Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2017 34
2017 Property Type Investment Outlook Fulfillment Center Warehouse Urban/high street retail Age-restricted housing/multifamily Medical office Moderate/workforce apartments Affordable apartments Central city office Neighborhood shopping centers Student housing Lifestyle/entertainment centers Midscale hotels Upscale hotels R&D High-income apartments Economy hotels Flex Single-family rental Luxury hotels Manufacturing Outlet centers Suburban office Power centers Regional mall Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2017 Poor Fair Excellent 35
Markets to watch 36
Markets to watch The top 10 2016 2017 Market Classification 2 1 Austin 18 - Hour 1 2 Dallas/Fort Worth 18 - Hour 9 3 Portland 18 - Hour 4 4 Seattle 18 - Hour 10 5 Los Angeles Gateway 7 6 Nashville 18-Hour 11 7 Raleigh/Durham 18-Hour/Suburban 14 8 Orange County 18-Hour/Suburban 3 9 Charlotte 18 - Hour 8 10 San Francisco Gateway Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2017 37
2017 Local Outlook: Virginia Beach/Norfolk 4 3 +58% 2 1 0 Public Private Investment Local Economy Capital Availability Development Redevelopment Opportunities Investor Demand Average National Average
2017 Local Outlook: Richmond 5 4 +67% 3 2 1 0 Local Economy Public Private Investment Capital Availability Development Redevelopment Opportunities Investor Demand Average National Average
Why Virginia Beach/Norfolk, Why Now? 2017 Total Population (millions) Largest University: Student Population Millennials (ages 16 35) as % of total population Cost of Doing Business* High Tech Location Quotient** 2017 Median Home Price ($) Housing Affordability Index*** United States 30% 100% 1.0 243,425 160.1 VA Beach /Norfolk 1.79 24,000 33% 94% 0.9 $222,195 179.3 Jacksonville 1.51 16,300 30% 96% 1.1 224,470 157.8 Nashville (C) 1.89 13,000 30% 94% 0.9 225,360 164.7 Richmond (C) 1.30 31,000 30% 94% 0.9 40 239,300 182.1 Raleigh/Durham 2.61 29,000 30% 87% 1.2 309,457 176.8
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