/FT. WORTH Strong Relationship Between Employment Growth and Net Absorption Point to a Strong Outlook If history serves as a guide, then the /Fort Worth office market should perform quite well through the second half of 2016, despite a large amount of construction activity. Since 1991, there has been a strong correlation between nonfarm employment and net absorption of office space. More recently, the local economy created 130,600 new jobs in the year ending April 2016, and the metro has absorbed 2.1 million square feet in the trailing 12 months. Favorable economic conditions and a steady flow of corporate relocations and expansions should lead to healthy employment growth in the coming years. Current Conditions 12 consecutive quarters of positive net absorption with demand at 525,174 square feet as of second quarter 2016. There were 34 projects underway at the end of second quarter 2016, representing 7.3 million square feet. The overall vacancy rate stood at 19.2%. Market Analysis Asking Rent and Vacancy $22 $20 26% 24% Economic and Employment Overview The metro is home to 21 Fortune 500 companies, a number exceeded only by New York, Chicago and Houston. These companies operate across a wide range of industries, which illustrates the economic diversification that has insulated the local economy from the downturn in the energy sector. Furthermore, access to state and local business incentives helps to attract new jobs and investment. For example, in addition to previously announced corporate moves by Toyota and Liberty Mutual, Jamba Juice and Jacobs Engineering have recently decided to follow suit. During the previous year, the largest employment gains by segment took place in the trade/transportation/utilities sector, which added 39,100 jobs; leisure/hospitality, with 24,300 new jobs; closely followed by a 19,500 gain in professional/business services. It is worth noting that nearly half of the new professional/business services jobs occurred in the professional, scientific, and technical services subcategory, which tends to have higher-paying positions. These recent employment gains have swelled the employment base to nearly 3.5 million people in /Fort Worth. For comparison, the workforce is roughly 3.0 million and 1.0 million in Houston and Austin, respectively. Furthermore, the local unemployment rate stood at 3.5% in April 2016, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This result was slightly higher than Austin (2.9%) but well below Houston (4.8%), which has seen significant cuts in the mining/logging and manufacturing sectors. Expect job growth to continue at a healthy rate. Office Fundamentals Turning to the office market, the favorable long-term structural story remains intact. The second quarter of 2016 represents the 12th consecutive quarter of positive absorption, resulting in net demand of 11.5 million square feet. During this stretch, demand was widespread across submarkets, led by Far North (3.2 million square feet), Richardson/Plano (2.7 million square feet) and Las Colinas (1.7 million square feet). More recently, strength in the suburban submarkets overshadowed weakness in the Central Business District (CBD). As a result, the /Fort Worth metro recorded quarterly positive net absorption of 525,174 square feet. On the heels of a solid first quarter, $18 $16 $14 $12 16% 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 Net Absorption Square Feet, Millions 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5 2Q11 2Q12 2Q13 2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 Market Summary Average Asking Rent (Price/SF) Vacancy (%) Current Quarter Prior Quarter Year Ago Period 22% 20% 18% 12 Month Forecast Total Inventory (SF) 219.6 M 219.1 M 214.7 M Vacancy Rate 19.2% 19.3% 18.6% Net Absorption (SF) 525,174 235,158 1,477,299 Average Asking Rent $24.08 $23.98 $22.34 Under Construction 7,272,5436 7,228,216 7,010,055 Deliveries 555,024 1,403,924 622,675
positive absorption reached 760,332 square feet in the first half of 2016, driven by strength in Class A product. In turn, the overall vacancy rate dropped 10 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 60 basis points yearover-year to 19.2%. Construction and Deliveries Remain a Dominant Theme In response to improving fundamentals, construction activity has been increasing since the third quarter of 2013. At the end of second-quarter 2016, there were 34 properties representing 7.3 million square feet underway. Out of the 7.3 million square feet, Class A makes up 7.0 million square feet, while Class B totals only 300,000 square feet. The most active submarket remains the Far North submarket, with 2.6 million square feet underway. Within the submarket, the two-building campus for Liberty Mutual, representing 1.1 million square feet, is the largest non-owner-occupied project currently underway. The Uptown/Turtle Creek submarket is booming with 1.9 million square feet in motion. Turtle Creek Corridor has not seen this level of activity since the 1980s. Turtle Creek Boulevard and Cedar Springs Road will be the new home for Hillwood Urban high-rise office building, a 17-story tower on three acres. The plans for this last vacant site along the corridor include a landscaped park and a restaurant with alfresco dining. Hillwood chose Pickard Chilton, who previously designed Exxon Mobil s new, 385- acre suburban Houston campus, to design the building. Also in Uptown is the new McKinney & Olive tower. The 20-story office tower is scheduled to open at the end of the summer and is already almost 90.0% leased. Major tenants in McKinney & Olive will include: Gardere Wynne Sewell LLP; Sidley Austin LLP; Saatchi & Saatchi; McKinsey & Co.; and Prologis. Turning to deliveries, the first half of 2016 saw the delivery of nine properties totaling roughly 1.6 million square feet of new office space. One notable project was AllenPlace, located in the Richardson/Plano submarket. AllenPlace was developed by Houston-based Sentinel Capital LLC, in partnership with Centra Partners LLC and Triad Real Estate. KONE Corporation inked a deal in 2014 to be the lead tenant. NGKF expects a total of 4.3 million square feet will deliver in 2016, followed by an additional 3.3 million square feet in 2017. Asking Rents Overall, healthy fundamentals have provided landlords with an opportunity to increase rents. Asking rents in /Fort Worth increased 7.8% year-over-year to $24.08/SF. By classification, Class A properties experienced a 7.9% hike to $27.69/SF, while Class B properties increased by 5.1% to $19.41. By submarket, double-digit gains were recorded in Mid Cities (13.0%), Richardson/Plano (12.9%), CBD (12.1%), South Ft. Worth (10.9%) and Northeast Fort Worth (10.0%). The only submarket where asking rents decreased was the Fort Worth CBD, but the decline was a modest 2.0%. Expect the rise in asking rents to continue in 2017, 2018 and 2019, although at a slower pace. Lease/User Transactions Tenant Building Submarket Type Square Feet Signet Jewelers Cypress Waters Office Park Las Colinas Direct/New 225,000 CompuCom Dominion Legacy Office Center Plano Direct/New 92,250 Compass Bank of America Plaza CBD Direct/New 57,634 Pacific Union Financial Royal Tech Business Park Las Colinas Direct/New 53,547 DirectSocket 7301 N State Highway 161 Las Colinas Direct/New 50,706 Select Sales Transactions Building Submarket Sale Price Price/SF Square Feet State Farm Operational Center East LBJ Freeway $825,000,000 $359 2,300,000 JP Morgan Chase Tower CBD $276,500,000 $213 1,296,407 Elm Place- Upper Floors CBD $43,400,000 $50 864,702 6560 Parkridge Boulevard Office Ctr/West LBJ Ext undisclosed - 651,376 KPMG Plaza CBD $225,000,000 $489.79 459,383 * Loan Amount 2
www.ngkf.com Submarket Statistics Total Under Total Qtr YTD Direct Sublet Average Total Reflects Class A/B/C Inventory Construction Vacancy Absorption Absorption Asking Rent Asking Rent Asking Rent (SF) (SF) Rate (SF) (SF) (Price/SF) (Price/SF) (Price/SF) CBD Total 28,220,868 342,879 24.5% -143,563-485,743 $25.66 $15.86 $25.30 Class A 21,907,067 342,879 25.3% -154,304-510,386 $26.55 $15.83 $26.13 Class B 5,086,486 0 21.6% -9,094 8,250 $19.72 $18.87 $19.71 Ft. Worth CBD 8,352,037 280,489 14.1% -50,456-114,563 $26.44 $19.52 $25.97 Class A 5,709,246 280,489 15.0% -48,279-89,554 $29.39 $22.56 $29.03 Class B 2,394,009 0 11.8% -2,177-25,009 $19.82 $16.15 $19.42 CBD Total 36,572,905 623,368 22.1% -194,019-600,306 $25.76 $16.65 $25.38 Class A 27,616,313 623,368 23.2% -202,583-599,940 $26.85 $16.72 $26.43 Class B 7,480,495 0 18.4% -11,271-16,759 $19.74 $16.65 $19.63 Central Expressway Total 10,907,615 0 13.7% 4,749 314,621 $26.85 $22.21 $26.57 Class A 7,051,855 0 15.1% -24,895 269,008 $28.46 $22.30 $28.18 Class B 3,668,086 0 11.5% 17,807 28,256 $23.28 $22.12 $23.17 East Total 3,507,993 99,500 24.1% -418,421-449,446 $16.59 $16.31 $16.59 Class A - 0 - - - - - - Class B 2,416,156 99,500 28.4% -420,891-429,285 $17.13 $16.31 $17.12 Far North total 38,630,118 2,499,148 15.8% 789,165 840,352 $27.51 $22.97 $27.06 Class A 22,901,298 2,382,948 15.8% 511,893 681,456 $31.89 $24.99 $30.98 Class B 15,397,073 116,200 16.1% 227,272 158,096 $21.33 $17.94 $21.12 Las Colinas Total 29,726,707 783,402 17.0% -17,516 459,669 $23.60 $21.06 $23.42 Class A 15,405,518 783,402 16.8% -141,499 276,292 $27.26 $21.32 $26.42 Class B 13,646,608 0 17.5% 120,292 174,791 $20.76 $18.54 $20.74 LBJ Freeway Total 19,933,891 0 25.7% 85,429 162,265 $20.98 $17.09 $20.80 Class A 10,404,414 0 24.3% 89,701 208,315 $24.49 $18.50 $24.08 Class B 9,219,486 0 27.2% -7,106-46,177 $17.69 $14.13 $17.60 Lewisville/Denton Total 5,192,401 0 10.3% 8,970 103,105 $21.18 $24.05 $21.25 Class A 324,964 0 0.0% - 80,964 $24.03 - $24.03 Class B 4,465,734 0 11.7% 8,970 24,789 $19.59 $24.05 $19.74 Mid-Cities Total 15,660,664 218,000 19.8% 204,704 156,377 $21.98 $17.74 $21.79 Class A 4,158,056 198,000 25.7% 176,524 59,531 $26.06 $17.40 $25.71 Class B 9,712,603 20,000 16.8% 28,030 105,752 $18.51 $18.36 $18.42 North Fort Worth Total 1,866,701 0 11.4% 44,169 55,756 $18.86 $20.32 $19.19 Class A 511,277 0 23.4% 14,282 14,282 - - - Class B 1,246,379 0 6.4% 31,527 40,614 $18.79 $20.32 $19.18 3
www.ngkf.com Submarket Statistics Total Under Total Qtr YTD Direct Sublet Average Total Reflects Class A/B/C Inventory Construction Vacancy Absorption Absorption Asking Rent Asking Rent Asking Rent (SF) (SF) Rate (SF) (SF) (Price/SF) (Price/SF) (Price/SF) Northeast Fort Worth Total 2,610,624 0 50.0% 1,062-18,467 $17.31 $13.22 $16.99 Class A 403,938 0 84.0% -8,631-8,631 $21.30 - $21.30 Class B 2,041,381 0 46.2% 9,693-9,836 $14.51 $13.22 $14.34 Preston Center Total 4,179,868 186,257 10.7% -9,566-43,688 $35.88 $27.24 $35.04 Class A 3,337,591 186,257 10.5% -23,340-44,190 $37.39 $27.24 $36.24 Class B 706,206 0 10.2% 15,129 14,712 $28.26 - $28.26 Richardson/Plano Total 21,352,259 608,901 23.3% 23,467-219,993 $22.26 $17.90 $22.12 Class A 10,084,538 550,000 25.0% -14,767-217,144 $26.06 $19.04 $25.58 Class B 10,536,541 58,901 22.3% -3,467-41,489 $19.59 $13.78 $19.53 South Fort Worth Total 6,685,400 317,584 9.0% 7,774-682 $23.41 $19.47 $23.13 Class A 1,795,471 317,584 6.6% 37,980 25,841 $29.60 $27.70 $29.57 Class B 4,084,565 0 8.8% -42,647-39,214 $21.05 $18.97 $20.80 Southwest Total 2,018,945 0 15.7% 23,914-662 $17.05 $16.52 $17.05 Class A 304,001 0 5.1% - - $21.84 $16.52 $21.51 Class B 1,339,977 0 16.1% 10,404-14,025 $16.70 - $16.70 Stemmons Freeway Total 9,943,108 0 29.4% -22,926-132,400 $15.82 $10.74 $15.64 Class A 3,684,761 0 17.1% 5,900 5,994 $19.09 $13.97 $19.04 Class B 5,368,546 0 36.8% 54,643-46,927 $14.95 $10.52 $14.75 Uptown/Turtle Creek Total 10,822,960 1,936,383 10.2% -5,781 133,831 $38.19 $30.50 $37.55 Class A 8,424,890 1,936,383 10.5% 1,201 94,771 $39.20 $32.63 $38.73 Class B 2,140,471 0 9.9% -4,994 43,069 $34.07 $25.39 $32.78 Suburban Total 183,039,254 6,649,175 18.7% 719,193 1,360,638 $23.95 $21.14 $23.77 Class A 88,792,572 6,354,574 17.9% 624,349 1,446,489 $28.67 $22.96 $28.18 Class B 89,989,812 294,601 19.6% 94,662-36,874 $19.48 $17.34 $19.39 Market Total 219,612,159 7,272,543 19.2% 525,174 760,332 $24.30 $20.59 $24.08 Class A 116,408,885 6,977,942 19.1% 421,766 846,549 $28.14 $22.04 $27.69 Class B 93,470,307 294,601 19.5% 83,391-53,633 $19.50 $17.31 $19.41 4
Economic and Office Vacancy Conditions Texas Vacancy Report Top 10 Submarkets by Lowest Vacancy Rate Employment By Industry, April 2016 Rank Submarket Total Vacancy Rate 1 Austin CBD 6.2% 2 Austin Central/West Central 7.1% 3 Houston Bellaire/Medical Center 8.7% 4 Houston Sugar Land/E. Ft. Bend 9.0% 5 DFW South Ft. Worth 9.2% 5 Austin Northwest 9.2% 7 DFW Lewisville/Denton 10.1% 8 DFW North Ft. Worth 10.6% 9 DFW Preston Center 10.7% 10 DFW Uptown/Turtle Creek 10.9% 16.4% 21.4% 12.3% 2.3% 3.4% 5.8% 12.1% 7.5% 8.2% 10.6% Information Other Services Mining/Logging/Construction Manufacturing Financial Activities Leisure/Hospitality Government Education/Health Services Professional/Business Services Trade/Transportation/Utilities Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Unemployment Rate Not Seasonally Adjusted 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Payroll Employment Total Nonfarm, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 12-Month % Change 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 United States United States, Consumer Price Index (CPI) Employment Growth by Industry All Items, 12-Month % Change, Not Seasonally Adjusted, 1982-84=100 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 United States, April 2016, 12-Month % Change, Not Seasonally Adjusted Total Nonfarm Mining, Logging and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government -2% 0% 2% 5% 7% 10% 5
2515 McKinney Ave. Suite 1300, TX 75201 469.467.2000 Newmark Grubb Knight Frank United States Office Locations David Wegman, CFA Director of Research - Texas 713.599.5151 dwegman@ngkf.com Leta Wauson Research Manager - Texas 713.599.5108 lwauson@ngkf.com Newmark Grubb Knight Frank has implemented a proprietary database and our tracking methodology has been revised. With this expansion and refinement in our data, there may be adjustments in historical statistics including availability, asking rents, absorption and effective rents. Newmark Grubb Knight Frank Research Reports are also available at www.ngkf.com/research All information contained in this publication is derived from sources that are deemed to be reliable. However, Newmark Grubb Knight Frank (NGKF) has not verified any such information, and the same constitutes the statements and representations only of the source thereof, and not of NGKF. Any recipient of this publication should independently verify such information and all other information that may be material to any decision that recipient may make in response to this publication, and should consult with professionals of the recipient s choice with regard to all aspects of that decision, including its legal, financial, and tax aspects and implications. Any recipient of this publication may not, without the prior written approval of NGKF, distribute, disseminate, publish, transmit, copy, broadcast, upload, download, or in any other way reproduce this publication or any of the information it contains.