Michael Ferreira, October 20, 2016
ONE OF THE CRAZIEST YEARS EVER
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME SALES YTD COMPARISON 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 28% 33% 13% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 15,966 12,061 3,905 Total N. of Fraser S. of Fraser
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME SALES YTD COMPARISON 10,000 8,725 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 3,967 3,274 0 Concrete Wood Frame Townhomes 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME SALES YTD COMPARISON 956 1,435 848 1,959 847 1,783 374 1,687 950 1,268 3,859
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR OUTER SUBURBS - TOWNHOMES Line-ups and lots and lots of sales Over 2,200 of them
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR OUTER SUBURBS - TOWNHOMES 80% Supply drop Q1-2015 to Q1-2016 30 50% Price rise 2015 to 2016
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR OUTER SUBURBS LOW RISE CONDOS More line-ups and more sales over 1,500
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR OUTER SUBURBS LOW RISE CONDOS 67% Supply drop Q1-2015 to Q1-2016 15 25% Price rise 2015 to 2016
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR OUTER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS No line-ups and fewer sales 340 in 2016 3CP achieving over $500 PSF
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR OUTER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS 46% Supply drop Q1-2015 to Q1-2016 0% Price rise 2015 to 2016
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS TOWNHOMES You guessed it more line-ups and more sales Over 780 sold in 2016
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS TOWNHOMES 65% Supply drop Q1-2015 to Q1-2016 15 40% Price rise 2015 to 2016
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS LOW RISE CONDOS No line-ups that we could find photos of But lots of sales Over 1,900 in 2016
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS LOW RISE CONDOS 63% Supply drop Q1-2015 to Q1-2016 15 30% Price rise 2015 to 2016
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS I bet you thought I was done with the line-ups More and more sales Over 5,700 in 2016
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS Burquitlam Five projects launched in 2016 1,101 units added 1,087 sold Just 18 unsold
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS New Westminster Peninsula by Aragon 66 of 118 released units sold $680 ish PSF
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS Brentwood 1,600 units sold 30% price 10,000+ units in planning
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS Metrotown Quiet year until Station Square Towers 4 & 5 Tower 4: 306 of 334 sold Tower 5: 423 units It s going very, very well
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS Richmond Steady Eddie 1,050 sales in 2016 Tax this!
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS North Shore Land of the rising price $850+ PSF in Lynn Valley $1,100+ PSF in LoLo $1,200+ PSF in Edgemont $2,000+ PSF in West Van
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR INNER SUBURBS HIGH RISE CONDOS 37% Supply drop Q1-2015 to Q1-2016 10 30% Price rise 2015 to 2016
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR VANCOUVER TOWNHOMES Need more townhome 230+ sold in 2016 Just 53 available
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR VANCOUVER - TOWNHOMES 84% Supply drop Q1-2015 to Q1-2016 20 50% Price rise 2015 to 2016
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR VANCOUVER LOW RISE CONDOS Need more low rise too 500+ sold in 2016 Just 39 available in 4 projects
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR VANCOUVER LOW RISE CONDOS 89% Supply drop Q1-2015 to Q1-2016 10 25% Price rise 2015 to 2016
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR VANCOUVER HIGH RISE CONDOS 2,500 sold in 2016 Good-bye to <$1,500 PSF Downtown $1,200+ PSF the Van West norm Van East breaks $900 PSF
NEW MULTI-FAMILY HOME MARKET THIS YEAR SO FAR VANCOUVER HIGH RISE CONDOS 80% Supply drop Q1-2015 to Q1-2016 15 35% Price rise 2015 to 2016
DEMAND DRIVERS
DEMAND DRIVERS IMMIGRATION (AKA FOREIGN BUYERS) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 5,000 Q1 1990 Q1 1991 Q1 1992 Q1 1993 Q1 1994 Q1 1995 Q1 1996 Q1 1997 Q1 1998 Q1 1999 Q1 2000 Q1 2001 Q1 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016
DEMAND DRIVERS FOREIGN CAPITAL FLOW $10 TRILLION SIZE OF CHINESE BANKING SYSTEM IN 2008 $24 - $25 TRILLION SIZE OF CHINESE BANKING SYSTEM IN 2015
DEMAND DRIVERS FOREIGN CAPITAL FLOW $14 - $15 TRILLION INCREMENTAL INCREASE EQUALS SIZE OF U.S. BANKING SYSTEM WHICH TOOK 100 YEARS TO GROW TO THIS SIZE
WEALTH TRANSFER DEMAND DRIVERS 193,000 HOMES OWNED CLEAR TITLE BY 55+ RESIDENTS $197 BILLION IN TAX FREE EQUITY
DEMAND DRIVERS BC INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION 17,000 Net BC Interprov Migration AB Int Immigration 12,000 7,000 2,000 3,000 8,000 Q1 1990 Q1 1991 Q1 1992 Q1 1993 Q1 1994 Q1 1995 Q1 1996 Q1 1997 Q1 1998 Q1 1999 Q1 2000 Q1 2001 Q1 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE EQUATION
THE SUPPLY SIDE QUARTERLY SALES VS. UNSOLD INVENTORY 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Q3 2016 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Total Sales Released Inventory
WHAT DOES GOVERNMENT DO?
(AKA CHINESE BUYER TAX)
FOREIGN BUYER TAX IMPACT ON THE NEW HOME MARKET 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 2,607 1,000 0 3,004
STRICTER MORTGAGE RULES AKA. LETʼS SCREW THE BUYERS WHOʼVE AFFECTED AFFORDABILITY LEAST BUT ARE MOST IMPACTED BY IT.
HEREʼS A THOUGHT #ITSABOUTSUPPLYTOOSTUPID
THE SUPPLY SIDE MONTHS OF SUPPLY DOWNTOWN VAN WEST VAN EAST RICHMOND BBY/N. WEST NORTH SHORE TRI CITIES RIDGE MDWS SURREY/N. DELTA 0.6 2.1 1 3.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 1.6 1.8 3.7 1.3 0.7 3.5 3.3 0.2 2.8 0.2 0.5 0.2 1 3.2 1.2 1 5.3 S SURREY/W ROCK LGLY/CLOVERDALE 0.4 1.2 3.2 3.6 Concrete Wood Frame Townhome
HEREʼS ANOTHER THOUGHT HOW ABOUT APPROVING MORE PROJECTS MORE QUICKLY?!?
THE SUPPLY SIDE CONTEMPLATED PROJECTS
THE SUPPLY SIDE ACTIVE PROJECTS TREND 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Concrete Wood Frame Townhome
THE SUPPLY SIDE AVERAGE PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT TREND $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 Concrete Wood Frame Townhome
ONE FINAL THOUGHT
SAY YES!
SAY YES!