São Paulo SÃO PAULO OFFICE Economic Indicators Q416 Q417 12-Month GDP -3.6% 0.9% Inflation Rate 6.3% 2.9% Unemployment 12.0% 12.0% Real Estate Indicators Q416 Q417 12-Month Vacancy 29.3% 24.1% Net Absoption (.000) 7.37 25.22 Under Construction (.000) 47.0 25.43 Avg. Asking Rent R$95.9 R$96.2 Net Absorption/Ask Price CBD Class AA+ Average 110 90 70 30 10-10 Vacancy CBD Class AA+ 35.0% 3 25.0% 15.0% 1 5.0% Net Absorption Asking Rent R$ 134 R$ 114 R$ 94 R$ 74 R$ 54 R$ 34 R$ 14 Economy In 2017 first signs of the long-awaited economic recovery surfaced, following a long period of recession and political instability. The forecasted year-end GDP growth was revised upward by 0.9%, mostly because the domestic market s good performance, and the permission to withdraw funds from the FGTS [Guarantee Fund for length of Service] accounts. The inflation rate, which closed the year at 2.95%, on percentage point below the one the Central Bank had established, should go up in 2018, and reach 4.4%. In turn, the interest rate (SELIC) should continue to cool down and hit 6.75%. Regardless of the improved economic activity expected, the unemployment rate in Brazil is still very high and lingers upwards of 12%. It is worth pointing out, however, that this rate continues to fall due to largely informal jobs (jobs without contract). While a growing number of workers resort to the informal market, there is also a reduction in formal employment rate in the private sector. With regards to the exchange rate, the market remains apprehensive with the expectation of the pension reform vote, causing the Real value to oscillate. Furthermore, the US, with a more protectionist policy, should once again elevate their interest rate this year, which should cause the Dollar value to fluctuate in 2018. Market Overview Despite the economic improvements in 2017, the CBD Class AA+ office market environment remains cautious as owners postpone projects and wait for the market to further stabilize. The postponement of construction activities affected the delivery of new inventory, which presented a sharp drop when compared to that of the preceding year (173 ksqm in 2016 against only 55 ksqm in 2017). In turn, net absorption showed a positive growth in the yearly comparison, with more than 192 ksqm occupied in 2017, the highest value since 2013. It is worth pointing out, however, that gross absorption hit a record value (more than 325 ksqm), showing that there is a strong flight-to-quality movement occurring in the capital. Occupancy With record absorption for 2017, the vacancy rate for the office CBD Class AA+ market, which had reached its peak in 2016 (29.3%), dropped to 24.1% at the end of the year. Concerning absorptions, the Chucri Zaidan region stands out with net absorption at 100 ksqm in 2017. The Santo Amaro region went against the flow, and presented negative net absorption of more than 22 ksqm, resulting from the large number of São Paulo Headquarter move-outs.
(%) Quarterly Change São Paulo Pipeline Due to the past financial crisis, several owners kept delaying the delivery of buildings that were scheduled to be delivered this year. On top of this, many other buildings had their construction interrupted because of financial issues. Because of these postponed deliveries, the São Paulo office CBD Class AA+ market experienced total delivery of 55 ksqm in 2017, well below the amount delivered in 2016 (173 ksqm). This also caused the 2018 delivery forecast to go up drastically (to about 167 ksqm). It is highly likely, however, that many projects will continue to have their deliveries postponed, which should bring those forecasted values down. THE GROSS REGISTERED A VOLUME HIGHER THAN 325 ksqm THROUGHOUT 2017 Average Asking Rent After a considerable drop between 2015 and 2016, the average asking rent for the office CBD AA+ closed 2017 recording a slight year-over-year increase (R$ 95.9/sqm in 2016 and R$ 96.2/sqm in 2017). However, it is important to highlight that the asking rent price in 2017 showed a sharp rise early in the year, but dropped consistently over the next few quarters. This still is the product of a high-vacancy market that continues to force owners to lower their prices. The region with the highest appreciation in value in the yearly comparison was Chácara Santo Antônio, with a 14.8 p.p. increase, going up from R$ 60.1/sqm by the end of 2016 to R$ 69.0 in the last quarter of 2017. The economic recovery should strengthen the real estate market in a way that, with absorption remaining positive and the market heating up, prices should rise once again. Still, since 2018 is an election year and the country is still experiencing political instability, so setbacks are likely to show up along the way. Despite this, many buildings have delivery dates scheduled for 2018, and this could impact vacancy rates. However, postponement remains the dominant trend and vacancy rates continue to fall, at least for the moment. New Inventory CBD Class AA+ 4 400 3 300 2 200 1 100 0 Asking Rent Class AA+ 1-1 - Outlook 2013 2014 2018 CBD NCBD With the economy growth better than expected for 2017, the forecasts for 2018 are positive. Halts in constructions, and projects being postponed in 2017 were responsible to 156Ksqm for São Paulo Office CBD AA+ market The net absorption in 4 th quarter of 2017 was 25Ksqm, ending the year with an agregate of 192Ksqm
São Paulo SUBMARKET BUILDINGS INVENTORY AVAIABLE AREA VACANCY RATE (Q4) (TYD) UNDER CONSTRUCTION * (ALL CLASSES) (CLASS AA+) Paulista 15 245.7 35.1 14.3% (230.7) 21,477.2 19,584 79.6 96.0 Pinheiros 18 265.2 36.1 13.6% (1,540.5) 25,699.1-62.9 72.1 Faria Lima 25 432.9 81.3 18.8% 2,091.7 17,487.7 60,300 108.3 133.7 Itaim 4 72.6 1.4 2.0% - 13,386.2-70.3 120.0 Vila Olimpia 15 204.1 36.4 17.8% 1,681.2 12,695.1 18,000 80.1 109.1 Berrini 10 293.9 85.4 29.0% 9,712.7 7,220.3-80.0 93.2 Chac. Sto. Antonio 17 175.7 52.2 29.7% (900.6) (4,514.6) 62,448 60.8 69.0 Marginal Pinheiros 20 171.7 58.4 34.0% 11,059.5 4,373.0 24,000 54.9 63.9 Chucri Zaidan 24 615.7 164.9 26.8% 18,093.4 100,436.3 43,495 87.0 96.3 JK 12 336.4 80.5 23.9% 6,262.3 17,085.3-113.9 132.5 Santo Amaro 8 113.5 74.2 65.4% (21,013.0) (22,848.9) - 47.9 58.1 TOTAL CLASS AA+ CBD Class AA+ 168 2.927.4 705.8 24.1% 25,216.1 192,496.8 227,827.0 77.3 96.2 *We consider buildings in "under construction" to Q42020 Main Transactions Q4 2017 BUILDING SQM TENANT TRANSACTION TYPE SUBMARKET CENU - Torre Norte 5,638 WeWork Lease Berrini Panamérica Park - Bloco 02 4,800 TRT Lease Marginal Pinheiros Panamérica Park - Bloco 03 4,800 TRT Lease Marginal Pinheiros Wtorre JK - Torre D 4,034 WeWork Lease JK Continental Square Faria Lima 4,029 Heineken Lease Vila Olímpia About Cushman & Wakefield Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm that helps clients transform the way people work, shop, and live. Our 45,000 employees in more than 70 countries help investors and occupiers optimize the value of their real estate by combining our global perspective and deep local knowledge with an impressive platform of real estate solutions. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate services firms with revenue of $6 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facility services (C&W Services), global occupier services, investment & asset management (DTZ Investors), project & development services, tenant representation, and valuation & advisory. To learn more, visit www. or follow @CushWake on Twitter. Gustavo Garcia Head of Market Research & Business Intelligence South America Praça Professor José Lannes, 40 3º andar São Paulo SP CEP: 04571-100 - Brasil Tel: + 55 11 3513-6783 gustavo.garcia@sa.cushwake.com
Rio de Janeiro RIO DE JANEIRO OFFICE Economic Indicators Net Absorption/Average Asking Rent CBD Class AA+ Vacancy CBD Class AA+ 3Q16 3Q17 12-Month GDP -3.6% 0.9% Inflation Rate 6.3% 2.9% Unemployment 12.0% 12.0% Real Estate Indicators Q4 16 Q4 17 Vacancy 38.0% 40.7% Net Absorption (,000) 10.0 14.9 Under Construction (,000) 149.3 68.0 Avg. Asking Rent R$114.5 R$107.6 40 30 20 10-10 45.0% 4 35.0% 3 25.0% 15.0% 1 5.0% 0 Net Absorption Asking Rent 12-Month R$ 134 R$ 114 R$ 94 R$ 74 R$ 54 R$ 34 R$ 14 Economy In 2017 first signs of the long-awaited economic recovery surfaced, following a long period of recession and political instability. The forecasted year-end GDP growth was revised upward by 0.9%, mostly because the domestic market s good performance, and the permission to withdraw funds from the FGTS [Guarantee Fund for length of Service] accounts. The inflation rate, which closed the year at 2.95%, on percentage point below the one the Central Bank had established, should go up in 2018, and reach 4.4%. In turn, the interest rate (SELIC) should continue to cool down and hit 6.75%. Regardless of the improved economic activity expected, the unemployment rate in Brazil is still very high and lingers upwards of 12%. It is worth pointing out, however, that this rate continues to fall due to largely informal jobs (jobs without contract). While a growing number of workers resort to the informal market, there is also a reduction in formal employment rate in the private sector. With regards to the exchange rate, the market remains apprehensive with the expectation of the pension reform vote, causing the Real value to oscillate. Furthermore, the US, with a more protectionist policy, should once again elevate their interest rate this year, which should cause the Dollar value to fluctuate in 2018. Market Overview Rio de Janeiro is still experiencing the effects of the economic recession and political disarray. The city's office CBD Class AA+ market has been rattled by excessively high vacancy rates that keep on rising. Despite recording positive net absorption at 20 ksqm in 2017, the region's vacancy rate increased from 38% in 2016 to 40.7% by the end of 2017. The high vacancy rate is the result of the high volume of new deliveries that were delivered over the past few years. Last year, Aqwa Corporate, Torre 1º de Março, and Barão de Tefé 27 were delivered. Owners have been adjusting their prices to match demand, but Rio de Janeiro should see a slow recovery, and the vacancy rate should remain at high levels.
(%) Quarterly Change Rio de Janeiro Occupancy After 2016 closed the year out with a negative net absorption of 48 ksqm, the office CBD Class AA+ market in Rio de Janeiro recorded net absorption at 20 ksqm for 2017. The Porto region stands out with net absorption totaling 17 ksqm for the year, a reflection of the several new high quality developments. With the prices going down, many companies are taking advantage of lower prices and are moving to higher quality buildings in the region. However, it is worth highlighting that this is a developing region, with a relatively new office market with large amounts of unoccupied space, and a vacancy rate at more than 80%. Pipeline In 2017, Rio de Janeiro had three CBD Class AA+ buildings delivered. They are: Barão de Tefé 27, the new L Oreal building; Torre 1º de Março, and the imposing AQWA Corporate, for total of 100 ksqm delivered. The delivery of new CDB Class AA+ developments is not expected to take place in 2018, which should bring the number of vacant spaces down in Rio. New Inventory CBD Class AA+ 2 200 1 100 0 2013 2014 2018 Asking Rent Class AA+ THE VACANCY RATE OF RIO S CBD CLASS AA+ REACHED 40.7% IN 2017 1-1 Average Asking Rent The average asking rent for CDB Class AA+ developments in Rio de Janeiro continued to follow a downward trend in 2017, and ended up at R$ 107.6/sqm, a 6.1% drop in relation to the value recorded in 2016 (R$ 114.5/sqm). The sharpest drop recorded in a yearly comparison belonged to the Porto region, which, despite showing positive net absorption, still holds the highest vacancy rate in Rio de Janeiro, with many new but vacant buildings. With an excessively high vacancy rate, owners are being forced to lower their prices. The average asking rent price in the Porto region was R$ 98.5/sqm in 2016, and went down to R$ 87.7/sqm in 2017, a drop by 11% within the year. - Outlook CBD NCBD The following points summarize Rio de Janeiro s near-term outlook: The new inventory in Rio de Janeiro, highlighting the new AQWA Corporate was responsible for the increase of the vacancy rate in the city. With no new projects expected for 2018, Rio s vacancy rate should rely only on the absorptions, tending to gradually reduce for the next few years.
Rio de Janeiro SUBMARKET BUILDINGS INVENTORY AVAIABLE AREA (,000 sqm) VACANCY RATE (Q4) (YTD) UNDER CONSTRUCTIO N (ALL CLASSES) (CLASS AA+) Centro 35 895.1 272.7 30.5% 17,580.2 15,367.6 0.0 R$91.02 R$117.00 Cidade Nova 7 239.9 107.2 44.7% 0.0-2.4 0.0 R$92.49 R$94.08 Orla 13 180.9 59.9 33.1% -3,880.0-13,433.3 0.0 R$117.89 R$117.70 Zona Sul 5 23.8 9.3 39.0% 1,209.7 764.4 0.0 R$147.00 R$147.82 Porto 10 223.9 186.9 83.5% 0,0 17,516.5 98,149.0 R$82.62 R$87.66 TOTAL CLASS AA+ CBD Class AA+ 70 1,563.6 636.0 40.7% 14,909.9 20,212.8 98,149.0 R$93.73 R$107.57 * We consider Under Construction to 4Q 2020. Main Transactions Q4 2017 BUILDING SQM TENANT TRANSACTION TYPE SUBMARKET Torre Vargas 914 5,983 Assim Saúde Lease Porto Passeio Corporate B 2,097 Andrade Gutierrez Lease Centro Edifício Galeria 1,800 Everis Brasil Lease Centro Ed. Academia Nacional de Medicina 1,300 Stone Lease Centro Rio Metropolitan 990 Total Petróleo e Gás Lease Centro About Cushman & Wakefield Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm that helps clients transform the way people work, shop, and live. Our 45,000 employees in more than 70 countries help investors and occupiers optimize the value of their real estate by combining our global perspective and deep local knowledge with an impressive platform of real estate solutions. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate services firms with revenue of $6 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facility services (C&W Services), global occupier services, investment & asset management (DTZ Investors), project & development services, tenant representation, and valuation & advisory. To learn more, visit www. or follow @CushWake on Twitter. Gustavo Garcia Head of Market Research & Business Intelligence South America Praça Professor José Lannes, 40 3º andar São Paulo SP CEP: 04571-100 - Brasil Tel: + 55 11 3513-6783 gustavo.garcia@sa.cushwake.com