Real Estate Update Upcoming elearning series Year-End Planning September 16 Kevin Russell Senior Vice President, Sales & Account Management, Cartus Home Loans Renee Carnes-Rook Vice President, Real Estate Services, Cartus
2005 Home appreciation robust AK 14.0 % Yearly National Home Price Change = 12.9% 2005 NH 9.7% ME 10.6% HI 23.8% Price Change >15% 10% - 15% 5% - 10% 0% - 5% Negative OR 19.5% WA 18.4% CA 21.0% NV 18.0% ID 18.6% UT 13.3% AZ 34.9% MT 14.5% WY 12.8% CO 6.0% NM 15.5% ND 8.1% SD 8.1% NE 4.2% KS 4.7% MN 7.9% OK 6.5% IA 6.3% MO 7.0% AR 7.5% TX 5.5% LA 9.1% WI 8.4% IL 9.4% MI 3.7% IN 4.7% OH 4.0% KY 5.3% TN 8.0% MS 7.4% AL 9.2% VT 13.8% PA 12.4% NY 12.6% RI CT 10.7% 11.9% NJ 15.6% WV 11.9% VA 19.6% GA 6.4% MD 21.5% NC 8.0% SC 9.2% FL 26.8% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) MA 8.2% DE 15.5% DC 22.0%
2008 - Record home price declines AK 0.4% Yearly National Home Price Change = -8.2% 2008 NH -7.6% ME -5.0% HI 0.3% Price Change >15% 10% - 15% 5% - 10% 0% - 5% Negative OR -7.1% WA -7.4% CA -25.5% NV -28.2% ID -6.5% UT -6.6% AZ -20.6% MT -2.5% WY 1.5% CO -2.6% NM -1.3% ND 1.9% SD 0.2% NE -2.5% KS -1.4% MN -8.1% OK 1.7% IA -1.0% MO -3.6% AR -2.7% WI -3.5% TX 0.3% LA -2.0% IL -5.8% MI -11.4% IN -3.9% MS -3.7% OH -6.2% KY -1.3% TN -3.9% AL -2.3% VT -3.2% PA -3.0% NY -3.3% CT -6.5% NJ -7.3% MD -11.8% WV -0.9% VA -10.1% NC -3.7% SC -3.4% GA -10.3% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) RI -9.4% FL -24.0% MA -5.5% DE -7.6% DC -3.9%
2009 - Continued challenges Yearly National Home Price Change = -7.1% Q1 2009 AK 4.79% NH -3.6% ME -2.0% HI -4.3% Price Change >15% 10% - 15% 5% - 10% 0% - 5% Negative OR -7.76% WA -6.63% CA -22.12% NV -31.1% ID -6.3% UT -9.25% MT -2.5% WY -6.5% CO -1.70% AZ -19.5% NM -6.3% ND 0.3% SD 0.29% NE -2.9% KS -0.87% MN -6.0% OK 0.3% IA -1.21% MO -0.67% AR -1.75% WI -0.91% TX -0.58% LA -1.66% IL -6.35% MI -6.4% IN -3.0% MS -4.7% OH -5.1% KY -0.54% TN -4.1% AL -2.3% VT -3.52% PA -4.1% NY -3.42% RI CT -6.08% -4.5% NJ -6.3% MD -10.6% WV -4.1% VA -8.5% NC -0.8% SC -3.1% GA -8.3% FL -22.5% Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) MA -3.24% DE -3.3% DC - 15.28%
Negative Equity Metropolitan areas with the highest percentage of homes with negative equity in the first quarter of 2009 Region Pct. Of Homes Las Vegas, NV 67.2% Stockton, CA 51.1% Modesto, CA 50.8% Reno, NV 48.5% Vallejo-Fairfield, CA 44.4% Port St. Lucie, FL 43.5% Riverside, CA 42.8% Phoenix, AZ 41.7% Orlando, FL 41.7% United States 21.9% Source: Zillow.com
POSITIVE SIGNS
Historical interest rates
Home affordability
New Home supply
Existing homes
08-Jan 08-Feb 08-Mar 08-Apr 08-May 08-Jun 08-Jul 08-Aug 08-Sep 08-Oct 08-Nov 08-Dec 09-Jan 09-Feb 09-Mar 09-Apr elearning Interest rates and Application volume 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 6.50% 6.00% 5.50% 5.00% 4.50% Avg Interest Rate Purch Volume Refi Volume
The year was 2004.. Transferee purchases a home in Sacramento, CA: The Purchase price is $400,000 Credit score is 620 Puts 5% down Takes out a piggyback 2nd mortgage for 15% Current home has not sold, so takes out a bridge loan for the 5% down payment Gets a jumbo loan ($333,700 in 2004) with an interest rate that is almost the same as the conforming rate Transferee only needs a copy of the contract & proof of homeowner s insurance to process and close the loan.
In 2009: Transferee is buying a condo in Miami, FL: Purchases the home for $250,000, but has to wait for bank approval because the seller is going through a short sale Has to put 20% down, because PMI companies will no longer insure condo s in FL Credit score is a 700 (higher than the avg. American credit score 692), but because it s not higher than 740 his rate will go from 5% to 5.125%. Can t close on the condo, until his current home sells (BVO only) Transferee is required to provide tax returns, W2 s, paystubs, bank statements, letter explaining the recent credit inquires
2010 - A look ahead Interest rates will average 4.9% and 2009 and increase slightly to 5.1% in 2010 Existing home sales for 2009 should drop 2.5 percent to about 4.8 million units. Sales will likely pick up ten percent in 2010. Median home prices expected to continue to decline about 9% for 2009. Prices should stabilize at the end of 2009 and post a slight increase in 2010. Purchase volume will continue to drop to $742 billion in 2009 and should increase 25 percent in 2010, as home sales increase and home prices stabilize. Refinance originations should surge by about 145% to $1.87 trillion in 2009 and will drop about 36 percent in 2010
There is good news! Interest rates are at a 35 year low and not expected to go appreciably higher for the rest of the year A good, qualified buyer will have a choice of inventory and still have a healthy choice of loan products Some metropolitan areas and communities are beginning to stabilize Cartus and Cartus Home loans are up to date and schooled in all real estate, lending and economic changes impacting relocation
Mortgage Recommendations Be Patient: Investors and PMI companies continue to modify guidelines (LTV requirements, trailing spouse income, etc) Changes to declining market indicators Lenders continue to adjust to an ever changing lending environment Be Prepared: Be prepared to provide more documentation than required on prior moves Full disclosure of any relevant information related to income, assets, liabilities, lines of credit, and property type/condition) Be Knowledgeable: Alternative loan products (FHA, Conforming Plus) Market influences: short sales and foreclosures Additional dollar and process related costs outside of national lender
Interest rates Lowest since 1950 s Inventory high Existing home sales Sales prices 10.2 month supply* Down 4.6% over prior year nationally* Down 15.4% nationally* Half of all sales are distressed: 15-20% short sales, 30-35% foreclosures Unemployment Increased to 9.4% in May 2009 Foreclosures Record highs Estimate 20%- 25% of homeowners are underwater* *Source: National Association of Realtors
Changing Landscape Foreclosures May 2009 Total exceeds 300,000 for a record third straight month May activity was third-highest month on record National forecast: one in every 398 housing units received a foreclosure filing NH ME AK WA MT ND MN VT MA MA OR NV +82.70% ID +72.32% UT +115.06% WY CO -14.98% SD NE KS IA MO WI IL MI -4.72% IN OH -12.57% KY NY PA WV RI CT NJ MD VA DE DC HI States with foreclosure activity among the nation s highest: data indicates % change from May 2008 CA +22.81% AZ +31.04% NM TX OK AR LA MS TN AL GA -1.27% SC NC FL +50.40% Source: RealtyTrac
Hot Issues 1. Chinese drywall 2. Condo financing 3. Changes in mortgage appraisals
Chinese Drywall What Wallboard, gypsum board, plasterboard Manufactured from waste materials Effects Corrosion Rotten egg smell Failure of systems Health issues? Testing Remediation Impact to Clients Significant costs Recommendations Cartus policy
Condo Financing Increasingly Challenging Certificates of occupancy Association budget review Minimum down payments Other reasons Red Flags New construction Pending litigation Non-Fannie Mae approved projects Impact to Clients Condos as direct reimbursements Recommendations Cartus Action Ask at beginning Early identification
Appraisal Changes Fannie Mae Requirements Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) Ordering Agents and brokers Lenders control Effect on Appraisers Won t know price or value needed No direct communication from agents or originators Impact to Clients Properties may not appraise out May require longer closings Recommendations
Cartus Results YTD April Home Marketing 2009 MTD 2009 YTD 2009 Goal 2008 YE Actual 2007YE Actual Amended Rate 76.40% 67.40% 69% 66.20% 69.1% Direct Delivery vs. Backshop without BVO +10.2% +9.7% +10% 5.5% NA% Inventory Total Direct Expenses 2009 MTD 2009 YTD 2009 Goal 2008 YE Actual 2007YE Actual Regular 24.8% 24.4% 22.00% 22.01% 19.28% Amended 8.8% 8.8% 8.50% 8.19% 7.98% Combined 17.2% 16.5% 13.75% 12.94% 11.29% Average Days in Inventory 138 134 135 137 138 Total % Resale loss 13.94% 13.96% 13.00% 11.67% 9.35%
Variance Statistics Year Appraised Year Sold Number of Appraisals Variance 2009 2009 207 5.4% 2008 2009 795 13.7% Pre-2008 2009 29 54%
Time is Money Consequences of chasing the market Balance between getting the desired price and costs incurred from direct expenses and loss on sale We will consider the following case studies 1. Concerned about a Cumberland condo 2. Trouble in Tampa 3. Managing the market
Case Study 1: Concerned About A Cumberland Condo Situation Description Location: Cumberland, RI Vacation/second home market Only recent sale was single family home Price Progression Date Step Price October 2008 Guaranteed Offer $306,500 October 23, 2008-March 27, 2009 Marketed at List Price $298,900 April 23, 2009 Backup BMA $274,000 May 7, 2009 Price Reduction $264,900. $3,000 in closing costs offered May 28, 2009 Selling Price $253,000 Results Days on Market: 231 Total Direct Expenses: 32.1%
Case Study 2: Trouble in Tampa Situation Description Location: Tampa, FL Depreciating market State leading the nation in foreclosures Price Beginning and Ending Date Step Price/ Comment 10/22/07 Recommendation List $519,000. Interior painted for $2,750 11/17/07 Approval received Recommended list is now $499,000 12/5/07 Call cancelled No response to reduction 1/5/08 Recommendation List $479,000; approved $499,000 w/ $5k BCC 1/5/09 Recommendation List $349,000- APPROVED 1/26/09 Home sold $325,000 Result Days on Market: 483 Total Direct Expenses: 63.71%
Case Study 3: Managing the Market Situation Description Located at bottom of highway off ramp Front of cul de sac Houses located close together Price Progression Date Step Price February 2009 Guaranteed Offer $585,000 March 2009 Price reduction $565,000 April 6, 2009 Price reduction $550,000 April 21, 2009 Price reduction $500,000 April 29, 2009 Two-day sale promotion: Price cut by $25,000. Generated offers of $410K, $450K, $450K, $450, and $475K $475,000 Home sold with no concessions $475,000 Result Days on Market: 107 Total Direct Expenses: 28.3%
Cartus Best Practice Recommendations Customer view competing properties Move incentive Placed on 306 homes 253 sold 83% 7.91% usage in final sale Direct delivery Real Estate Specialist works directly with customer on home marketing Specialist has home marketing expertise Can interpret comps Knows market depreciation Understands impact amenities will have Cartus has achieved higher amended sale rate on homes with direct delivery Need good policy in place to complement delivery model Used on accounts of several Cartus client
DOM Cartus Client Contact 1 Client Contact 2 0-60 85% or $40,000 61-120 80% or $60,000 121-180 75% or $90,000 181-365 65% or $115,000 80% or $50,000 75% or $65,000 75% or $70,000 70% or $85,000 70% or $100,000 65% or $115,000 60% or $125,000 55% or $140,000
Home Selling Recommendations Economic Indicators Gather information on homes in advance Take action Implement inventory approval grid Sell it now! Move to direct delivery
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