Property in numbers MOSCOW 214
CITY MARKET SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYNAMICS Supply Apartments share, % The average price on the new-builds market, $/sq m The number of transactions per month * Total supply (flats and apartments) 7 new projects 1,42 lots* 4 17,1 43 Number of lots 1,5 1,2 9 SUPPLY STRUCTURE ACCORDING TO CONSTRUCTION STAGES 6 3 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 F FOUNDATION PIT UNDER CONSTRUCTION READY FOR USE Supply Demand 9% $15, 63% $15,5 28% $21,63 Since the beginning of the, the supply stock in the segment of prime residential real estate grew by more than 5 lots due to the market delivery of seven new projects, as well as the start of sales of new stages in the complexes that were previously available on the market. Supply share Price, $/sq m SUPPLY STOCK STRUCTURE ACCORDING TO THE AREA AND COST OF THE FLATS FACTORS INFLUENCING THE DEMAND The new-builds market of today offers flats and apartments of any size (from 42 to 8 sq m) with the budget ranging from $6 to $15 million. For buyers, the district location and the price are the determining factors in choosing a flat. The most popular format 1 15 sq m < $2 million Architecture Flat area > 25 sq m 2 25 sq m.3%.2% 1.% 1.% 1.1%.1% 1.4% 2.% 2.% 1.%.4% 5.% 1.% Developer s reputation 11% 9% 29% Price 15 2 sq m 4.% 6.5% 2.7% 2.%.2%.2%.5% Special offers 12% 1 15 sq m 29.% 8.2% 2.3% < 1 sq m 1.6% 15.% 1.%.3%.5%.3%.2% Infrastructure 12% 27% < $1 million $1 2 million $2 3 million $3 4 million $4 5 million $5 6 million $6 7 million > $7 million District Flat cost
INVESTMENT MARKET COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT VOLUME DYNAMICS $ $ 1,,, 14,, 9,,, 12,, 8,,, 7,,, 1,, 6,,, 8,, 5,,, 6,, 4,,, Forecast 3,,, 4,, 2,,, 2,, 1,,, 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Retail Hotel Industrial Office Average transaction size $ 4,5,, 4,,, 3,5,, 3,,, 2,5,, 2,,, 1,5,, 1,,, 5,, Office 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 F Sixteen investment transactions took place in January September 214, with the total volume of approximately $ 1.7 billion INVESTMENT VOLUMES 213 VS 214 Retail 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 F About $66 million (4 transactions) were invested in retail properties in Q1 Q3 214 Industrial 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 F Despite growing investor's interest in industrial market in 211 213, only one Class A warehouse property was purchased for investment purposes over 9 month of 214, and the share of warehouse real estate in the total investment volume might reach the lowest level since 29. 213 214 Forecast $3.8 billion Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 $5.4 billion $3 billion $7.8 billion CAPITALIZATION RATE DYNAMICS % 14 Capitalization rates were revised in all commercial real estate segments. 12 1 8 11.25% 1.25% 9.75% Industrial Retail Office 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 F
OFFICE MARKET RENTAL RATES AND STOCK BY SUBMARKET Class А Class В Total stock, million sq m 3.3 11.1 $33 43 Vacancy rate, % 25.7 (+9.4 p. p.)* 13.7 (+2.2 p. p.)* Rental rates change, % -1%* -8%* Sale price, $/sq m 5,2 5,5 3,5 5,5 Capitalization rate, % 9.5 1. 1. 11. $64 72 * Compared to Q4 213 $5 55 DISTRIBUTION OF LEASED AND PURCHASED PREMISES ACCORDING TO COMPANY PROFILE Moscow-City GR $33 39 $69 9 $5 575 $52 68 TTR 11, 14, RUB MKAD 2% 2% 5% 5% 6% 8% 1% 11% 18% 33% TMT Business Services FMCG Vehicles / Transport / Logistics Oil / Gas / Mining Banking / Finance / Investment Manufacturing Pharmaceutical Construction / Architecture Other According to our forecast, class A rental rates will continue to decrease, while Class B indicator will remain stable. Stock, < 3 3 6 6 1, 1, 1,3 > 1,3 $64 72 Asking lease rent, $/sq m/ (triple net) NEW DELIVERY AND TAKE-UP DYNAMICS sq m 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 12.6% 16.2% Class А 29% 32% 31.4% 14.5% 15.2% Class В 16.3% 16.6% 17% sq m 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 212 213 214 F 215 F 216 F 212 213 214 F 215 F 216 F Take-up Delivery Vacancy rate Take-up Delivery Vacancy rate Take-up volume amounted to about 43, which is almost 45% less than for the same period of the previous.
RETAIL MARKET W-NAD WAD GLA 97 1 1,331 15 LARGEST SHOPPING CENTRES SCHEDULED FOR COMMISSIONING IN 214 NAD Vegas Crocus City Kuntsevo Plaza W-SAD 1,143 16 1,353 2 Vodny Avia Park MZ Vesna! CAD 76 2 E-NAD 1,42 15 Mozaika Moskvorech e SAD MOSCOW SHOPPING CENTRES SUPPLY DYNAMIC 1,758 26 EAD Reutov Park 1,493 7 E-SAD 1,353 1 < 4, sq m 4, 1, sq m > 1, sq m Shopping centres commissioned in Q1 Q3 214 Retail space per 1, residents < 15 15 3 3 4 > 4 Hanoi Moscow Mari Outlet Village Belaya Dacha (II phase) Population, thousand people Number of shopping centres Shopping centres stock (GLA) by the end of period million sq m A record number of shopping centres were anounced for openning in 214. Since the beginning of the, six objects were delivered and six more are expected for commissioning. As a result, the growth of supply volume for the could reach more than 1.5 million sq m (GLA 74 ). Entertainment centres (2, 5, sq m) $1 2; 4 7% Movie theatres $15 25; 7 11% Footwear (5 3 sq m) $9 2,5; 12 16% Apparels (5 3 sq m) $8 2,2; 11 16% COMMERCIAL TERMS IN MOSCOW SHOPPING CENTRES* Supermarket (1,5 3, sq m) $25 1,; 4 6% Accessories (1 7 sq m) $2,2 4,; 11 14% DIY (>5, sq m) $2 35; 4 6% * Fixed lease rate, $/sq m/; the share paid based on turnover, % 4.31 Vacancy rate, % 4. 1 5 (anchor tenants) Average rental rate, $/sq m/ 7 4, (gallery tenants) Average sale price, $/sq m 5, 8, Yield, % 1. 1.5 Entertainment centres (1 1,5 sq m) $22 4; 8 12% Goods for children (1, 2,5 sq m) $25 4; 8 12% White & Brown (1,5 3, sq m) $25 4; 2,5 6% Sporting goods (1,5 7, sq m) $18 3; 4 8% COMMERCIAL TERMS AND PERFORMANCE INDICATORS FOR SHOPPING CENTRES OF REGIONAL FORMAT Hypermarket (>7, sq m) $1 25; 2 4% Urban hypermarket (3, 7, sq m) $2 35; 2 4% Lease rates in the best of shopping centres remain the same, developers of less successful projects are often forced to compromise with the tenants, offering them substantial discounts. 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, % 1 9 8 7 6 5 A new shopping centre usually starts operating at its normal capacity a after since its opening, reaching the maximum efficiency towards three s of operation. Indicator, (% of the maximum) Base rental rate* Period after the shopping centre opening 3 months 6 months 1 3 s 3 7 > 7 5 7% 7 4, 3, 2, 1, 4 3 2 1 The share paid based on turnover ОРЕХ Attendance 5 6% 6 7% 95 23 GLA 24 25 26 GLA growth 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 F GBA GBA growth Vacancy rate Vacancy rate** 15 17% 1 15% 7 1% 1.5 3% 3 4% * Rental rate is discounted till the leasing of 7 8% of the shopping centre leasable area ** % of area not leased to the operators 5 6%
WAREHOUSE MARKET CITIES WITH THE HIGHEST DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY Class А Class В Total stock, million sq m 6.84 1.95 St. Petersburg Vacancy rate, % 4.9 4. Rental rate, $/sq m/ 1 13 7 8 Moscow Kazan Perm Ekaterinburg Sale price, $/sq m 1,2 1,4 Rostov-on-Don Tyumen Samara/ Togliatti Chelyabinsk Krasnodar Volgograd Krasnoyarsk Novosibirsk Irkutsk Total volume of planned and/or under construction storage facilities, Vladivostok Capitalization rate, % 11.25 11.5 11. 12. DISTRIBUTION OF LEASED AND PURCHASED PREMISES ACCORDING TO COMPANY PROFILE 5 1 1 3 3 5 5 1, > 1, 3% 8% Cities with the highest potential in terms of warehouse development ASKING RENTAL RATES AND VACANT SPACE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION 15% 32% 3% 12% Retail Distribution Transport and logistics Manufacturing Online retail Other NORTH NORTHEAST $11 115 NORTHWEST $135 $13 WEST $125 13 SOUTHWEST А 17 MKAD А 18 $115 EAST Moscow $115 12 SOUTHEAST $1 11 $115 125 А-17 The greatest amount of take-up in Q1 3 214 fell on those areas where active construction of warehouse complexes was underway. Approximately 34% were leased and purchased in the Southeast (along Novoryazanskoe Highway), the Northern direction (between Leningradskoye and Dmitrovskoye Highways) accounted for about 29%, while the South (along the Simferopolskoye and Kashirskoye Highways) for about 17%. Other regions GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE TAKE-UP VOLUME SOUTH А-18 27% New supply stock 2 3% 5 1% 5% $115 Asking rental rate, $/sq m/ (triple net) St. Petersburg and Leningrad region 14% 59% Moscow region The market exhibits a massive trend of ruble lease rates denomination: currently 5.4% of the total vacant space in Class A facilities available for lease are offered with ruble contracts, while 49.6% in dollar equivalent. A peculiar geographical currency market segmentation in the Moscow region is worth a notice: the space in projects under construction in the West and Southwest is still being offered mainly in United States dollars. In comparison with Q1 3 213, the share of regional transactions for the same period in 214 grew by 19 p. p. (in absolute terms 2.5 times). More than a half of all transactions in the regions of the country fell with Novosibirsk, Rostov-on-Don and Yekaterinburg.
COUNTRY MARKET AVERAGE ASKING PRICE AND ATTRACTIVENESS FOR BUYERS Supply 2 new residential settlements Zavidovo Honka and Renaissance Park Average home ownership price **, $/sq m 1,1 households* 4,15 New-build Re-sale $3,55 $3,72 Average land price, $/1 sq m 51, Number of transactions per month 35 * Total supply stock ** Including the price of land PRICE DYNAMICS А 18 $3,88 $4,54 Novorizhskoe hwy А 17 MKAD Dmitrovskoe hwy $/sq m 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, During the first 9 months of 214, the average prices on the new-builds and re-sales markets were relatively stable. As of September 214, the average prices of home ownership on the new-builds and re-sales markets was $4,15 and $4,3 per square meter respectively. Number of households 1,2 1, 8 6 I II I II I II I II F 211 212 213 214 New-build Re-sale NEW-BUILDS MARKET SUPPLY STOCK VOLUME DYNAMICS During the first 9 months of 214, 43 new residential cottage settlements appeared on the rural real estate market, positioned in various price segments, they also include two prime projects. Prior to this, for one and a half s, no high-budget settlements appeared on the market. $6, $6,13 $3,76 $3,62 $3,76 $3,4 Rublevskoe hwy Minskoe hwy Kievskoe hwy $3,62 $2,87 Kaluzhskoe hwy Moscow Attractiveness for buyers HOMEOWNERSHIP ACQUISITION PORTRAYAL Cost $1,8, 45 sq m 4 2 I 212 II I 213 II I 214 II F Since the beginning of 214, the demand for the prime country real estate remained stable; furthermore, Q3 was characterized by a burst of buying activity that is not common for the current season.
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