David Cowans Group Chief Executive Places for People

David Cowans Group Chief Executive Places for People

THE CHANGING HOUSING LANDSCAPE David Cowans Group Chief Executive Places for People

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT Economy in slow recovery Housing market variations Housing demand still outstripping supply State retrenching Localism/Subsidiarity Flexibility and positioning Capital markets

Dwelling completions UK DWELLING COMPLETIONS 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 Local Authorities Housing Associations Private Enterprise 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2013 Source : DCLG Housing Statistics, Table 241, permanent dwellings completed by tenure United Kingdom, historical calendar year series.

HOUSING TENURE Trends in Tenure (England)1980 to 2013/14 Buying with a mortgage Private renters Social renters??2018?? Source: English Housing Survey 2013-14

HOUSING TENURE Households aged 25-34, by tenure, 2003/4 to 2013/14 (England) Source : English Housing Survey, 2014

GOVERNMENT POLICY Right to Buy extension Minus 1% rent settlement Welfare cuts Regulation

CHANGING INCOMES 1999 2% of employees on minimum wage 2015 5% of employees on minimum wage? By 2020 predicted 11% of employees on minimum wage Beyond 2025? What might it look like?

CHANGING LANDSCAPE Social value change Income change Behavioural change What s the market impact of this?

Buyers cash shortfall as a % of purchase price Market sale: What is affordable? 2 person household, ave income @ 3.5 income loan, ave house prices 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% below zero 0-20% 20% to 30% 30% plus Source: Savills, ASHE, Land Reg

Buyers cash shortfall as a % of purchase price Starter Homes: discounted house price 2 person household ave incomes @ 3.5 loan to income ratio 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% below zero 0-20% 20% to 30% 30% plus Source: Savills, ASHE, Land Reg

Buyers Cash Shortfall as a % of purchase price Shared Ownership: 2 person household ave income @ 3.5 loan to income ratio 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% below zero 0-20% 20% to 30% 30% plus Source: Savills, ASHE, Land Reg

Proportion of boroughs What ownership offer can 2 person ave income households afford? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Market Starter Shared Can't Source: Savills, ASHE, Land Reg

Is Shared ownership in the right locations? Things to think about Absorption rates? Blend of tenure offers tailored to market segments Alternatives if market falls Source: Savills, ASHE, Land Reg

THE DELIVERY CHALLENGE Funding Land supply and planning Scale and infrastructure

OUR EVOLUTION Moving into the PRS & outright sale Placemaking focussed on larger scale development Building, placemaking and management businesses to deliver whole places Structured relationships to deliver more and larger activities Housing provision and neighbourhood regeneration

INTEGRATED SOLUTIONS

Products Private Rental Management Housing Management Care and Support & Services Support Services HR IM&T Health & Safety Procurement Finance Treasury Leasehold Management Repairs and Maintenance Group Activities Placemaking and Regeneration Neighbourhood and Economic Regeneration Financial Services Asset Management Leisure Management Development and Construction

Affordable rent Market rent Starter homes Shared equity Shared ownership Supported housing Buy outright Staircasing Equity release A range of requirements A range of solutions

OUR APPROACH Development Services Masterplanning Partnerships & JVs Facilities Management Ensuring successful places and enabling people to reach their potential Place management Property management Asset management Individual Support Leisure Facilities Sales Regeneration Access Affordable rent Rent conversion Starter homes Market rent

OUR STRATEGY Commercial methods to deliver social outcomes Long-term placemaking Quality mixed-use, mixed-tenure places Offer a range of products and services End-to-end offer / supply chain Improvement on previous best

BROOKLANDS, MILTON KEYNES

SMITH S DOCK, NORTH TYNESIDE

GILSTON PARK ESTATE, EAST HERTFORDSHIRE 1.5bn investment 450m infrastructure Up to 10,000 homes Supports economic growth & regeneration Potential of 540m in GVA Potential to create 27,500 direct and indirect jobs

EAST WICK AND SWEETWATER, OLYMPIC PARK

The best way to predict the future is to invent it. Alan Curtis Kay