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URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND HOUSING POLICY 2013-2018 2
Agenda I. Federal Urban Development and Housing Policy II. Importance of the housing sector for the Federal Government III. Political stability and governance IV. Economic stability V. Sound institutional framework VI. Housing demand VII. Availability of loans and subsidies VIII. Housing supply IX. Urban sprawl containment and land reserves X. New institutional framework and coordination with state and local authorities XI. Final remarks 3
I. Federal Urban Development and Housing Policy On February 11 th, President Peña Nieto announced the new government s Urban Development and Housing Policy guiding principles: Main goal: To make decent and dignified housing available for all. Housing policy will be a fundamental piece of urban development policy, in the pursuit of, not only housing, but also greater quality of life. In order to achieve this goal, four strategies were defined: 1. Advance enhanced coordination of urban planning and housing institutions 2. Evolve towards a sound and sustainable urban development model 3. Reduce housing deficit 4. Procure high-quality, competitive and sustainable housing solutions 4 4
II. Importance of the housing sector for the Federal Government The government acknowledges that the housing industry is one of the main economic activities in Mexico The construction industry is driven by two main forces: infrastructure and housing construction, which together represent 6.23% of total GDP Housing is one of the main sources of job creation, with an impact in over 28 industrial sectors It is a very well developed industry, with approximately 1,200 large, medium and small firms located all over the country The government is committed to support the industry, maintaining a constant flow of loans and subsidies, and defining a clear set of rules to provide certainty over the medium and long term The new housing policy guarantees that the industry continues to play a leading role in the economy through housing production 5 5
III. Political stability and governance Governance Legitimacy The historic Pacto por México, signed by three major parties, makes it feasible to approve and execute structural reforms, such as: Telecommunications Tax reform Energy Transparency Democratically elected government Smooth and coordinated transition Efficiency During its first 100 days this Administration has achieved substantial change: Labor reform (setting new paradigms for the first time since 1970) Education (guarantees quality and proper oversight of teachers) Reform to the Federal Legislation on Public Administration (brings together land, urban development and housing policy) 6 6
IV. Economic stability Stable macroeconomic markers Higher GDP growth rates are expected Steady foreign investment flows Job growth derived from recent reforms to the Federal Labor Act Control over inflation rates that shields workers purchasing power By the end of this decade Mexico will probably be among the world s ten biggest economies The Economist, Nov 24 th, 2012 Which country will become the more dominant economic power in the 21st century? I now have the answer: Mexico New York Times, Feb 23rd, 2013 3-year Average 2013 (estimated) 2014 (estimated) Inflation 3.93 * 3.67** 3.66** GDP annual growth 4.36*** 3.55** 4.03** Unemployment rate 5.03*** 4.51** 4.17** Source: *Banco de México; **Banco de México, Encuesta sobre las expectativas de los especialistas en la economía del sector privado, January 2013; ***INEGI. 7 7
V. Sound institutional framework A different institutional design was proposed by this Administration to benefit the sector. This design brings housing agencies under one single leadership allowing for greater coordination Each Housing agency s nature and legal mandate is maintained They will continue to address housing needs as before, simultaneously seeking stronger funding solutions. 8 8
V. Sound institutional framework Housing agencies maintain financial health and pay close attention to income streams. Estimated Income INFONAVIT 2012-2021 140,779 149,158 162,054 175,309 189,275 204,262 209,756 231,519 252,529 274,904 22,584 16,844 11,947 - - 5,455 5,623-5,300-10,000 10,000 4,239 4,830 5,150 5,052 10,000 176,232 10,000 164,005 75,688 82,884 93,047 103,832 115,439 127,990 140,416 152,010 10,000 10,000 50,039 52,035 54,177 56,327 58,536 60,817 63,717 67,562 71,680 76,088 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Aportaciones Contributions workers Cotizantes with no sin mortgage Crédito Recuperación Collection on loans de Cartera Fuentes Additional Alternas funding sources de Financiamiento Otros Ingresos Other (fees, interest income) Source: Infonavit, Financial Plan 2012-2016 9 9
V. Sound institutional framework Housing agency loan recovery strategies continue to show positive results 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Non-performing loan ratio for mortgage lending 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Infonavit Fovissste Bancos Private Banks Sofoles/Sofomes Source: CONAVI with data from housing institutions. Banks and Sofoles obtained from Central Bank. FOVISSSTE registers non-performing loans as of 2007. NPLs do not include off-balance portfolio. 10 10
VI. Housing demand The government has identified underserved segments of the population that can be incorporated into mainstream financial products. Sate and municipal workers, including members of police forces (1.8 million) Small taxpayers: Independent professionals, small businesses and selfemployed workers More affiliated workers for housing agencies due to growth in formal employment given structural reforms foreseen in the Pacto por México energy, labor and telecommunications Expected growth in formal employment (number of jobs) 2013 (expected) 2014 (expected) 649,000 705,000 Source: Banco de México, Encuesta sobre las expectativas de los especialistas en economía del sector privado, january2013 The Central Bank s board has decided to increase the 2014 job creation forecast to a range of 700 to 800 thousand new jobs Agustín Carstens, february 14 th, 2013 11 11
VI. Housing demand There are three main sources that contribute to housing demand Millions of housing units in need of improvement or expansion a Housing units in need of improvement or extension 6.2 5.6 Rural Urban 1 5.6 million units in urban areas require improvement or expansion Some of these can be replaced by new units Assuming that 20% of deteriorated units are replaced with new units: some of these to be replaced by new homes Potential demand a: 1.12 million new units in urban areas Source: CONAVI based on INEGI National Housing and Population Census 2010. 1. Locations with population over 15 thousand 12 12
VI. Housing demand b Housing units that need to be replaced Rural Millions of housing units that need to be replaced 1.5 1.3 million units in urban areas are extremely damaged or suffer from overcrowding These units need to be replaced with new units Urban 1 1.3 Potential demand b: 1.3 million new units in urban areas Source: CONAVI based on INEGI National Housing and Population Census 2010. 1. Locations with population over 15 thousand 13 13
VI. Housing demand c Housing demand due to population growth Period Annual average incremental housing demand 2011-2015 583,621 2016-2020 569,692 2021-2025 531,601 2026-2030 466,775 Source: CONAPO Over the next 20 years, 10.7 million units will be required to cope with population growth 557 thousand units will be needed every year during the course of this Administration, of which 369 thousand are located in urban areas Potential demand c: (2013 2018) 2.21 million new units in urban areas Source: CONAVI based on INEGI National Housing and Population Census 2010. 1. Locations with population over 15 thousand 14 14
VI. Housing demand (new units in urban areas) Over the next 6 years, cities with population over 15 thousand will demand 4.63 million new units (3) Of these, around 60% of potential consumers currently have access to formal financing channels to obtain a mortgage(1) As we make progress, improving labor conditions for informal jobs (2), the housing consumer base with access to mortgages will be expanded a b c Units in need of improvement or expansion Households with access to financing (million housing units) (1) Households without access to financing (million housing units) (2) Total (million) (3) 0.67 0.45 1.12 Units that need replacement 0.78 0.52 1.3 Units to cope with population growth 2013-2018 1.33 0.88 2.21 TOTAL 2.78 1.85 4.63 463 thousand / year Source: CONAVI based on INEGI National Housing and Population Census 2010. Housing policy goal 15 15
VII. Availability of loans and subsidies Housing agencies will maintain their loan origination pace Sources of income guaranteed by law No change in operating rules this year Financial health Steady flow of financing for new units Loan origination programs are operating as usual and are guaranteed to continue to do so for years to come In fact, INFONAVIT and FOVISSSTE started 2013 with better-than-expected results and performed better compared to 2012 on a year-over-year basis During government transition, the housing industry requested support from the new administration to reinforce financial liquidity. Hence, a special program was announced, which generated a spillover of 6,000 million pesos from December to February. (5,000 million through INFONAVIT loans and 1,000 million through CONAVI subsidies) Source: CONAVI based on INEGI National Housing and Population Census 2010. 1. Locations with population over 15 thousand 16 16
VII. Availability of loans and subsidies President Peña Nieto announced a 2013 goal of over one million housing initiatives, including 500 thousand targeted to new housing units Institution GOALS 2013 Housing acquisition Improvements New units Used units and expansion Autoproduction Total Loans / Subsidies Loans / Subsidies Loans / Subsidies Loans / Subsidies Loans / Subsidies Investment (thousand) (thousand) (thousand) (thousand) (thousand) (Million pesos) 310 145 90 NA 545 123,471 57 18 0.1 NA 75 38,021 19 NA 65 NA 84 2,132 70 10 68 17 165 5,788 3 1 120 40 164 5,000 Banca*** 98 ND ND NA 98 88,000 Sofoles*** 3 ND ND NA 3 1,260 Total 560 174 343 57 1,134 263,672 Source: CONAVI based on figures from each institution.* The Renueva Tu Hogar or Improve your Home Program is 100% bank funding ** CONAVI self-construction includes self construction, land with services, and Renovation. Note: FONHAPO does not break down housing programs in acquisition.*** Financial entities do not break their housing acquisition figures in new and used housing units 17 17
VII. Availability of loans and subsidies 5,787 million pesos authorized by Congress to fund low-income household subsidies 67% of this budget will be applied towards new home acquisition (3,873 million pesos) This will allow for the construction of 69,790 new units Each federal subsidy (around 55 thousand pesos) stimulates an investment of 190 thousand pesos for a loan and 10 thousand in savings (down payment) Vertical construction will be a priority, taking 50% of available funds, the remaining can be applied to horizontal construction Subsidies are flowing according to plan in 2013 18 18
VII. Availability of loans and subsidies The Federal Government has already started creating the implementation tools to meet Housing Policy goals To promote greater participation by private bank in mortgage lending, on March 6th the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Agrarian, Territorial and Urban Development and SHF made a joint announcement to launch new financial products to serve industry needs One of these is a first-loss guarantee program aimed to cover: Mortgages for individuals unaffiliated to Housing Funds Guarantee fund Financial institutions Construction loans for new housing projects Guarantee fund Financial institutions 19 19
VII. Availability of loans and subsidies In order to benefit the Open Market, SHF will seek to stimulate the mortgage industry in order to reduce the housing deficit, through granting its Mortgage Guarantee with the following benefits SHF Mortgage Guarantee Diminishes the risk of financial institutions Improves general credit conditions to final customers The product was unveiled two years ago. To boost the mortgage flow, the product was improved as follows: 1. Percentage increase of first loss guarantee (up to 30%) 2. Improvement of the operation processes to deliver an efficient product to Financial Intermediaries, mainly Banks. The product will be launched under the name of SHF s Mortgage Guarantee, whereby there is an expected economic flow of 12,000 mortgage loans through banks in 2013 with an estimated amount of $4,600 million pesos 20
VIII. Housing supply A new urban growth model aimed to contain sprawl and consolidate inner-cities. This model allows for an optimum use of existing infrastructure, services and land exploitation. Housing units should avoid overcrowding and guarantee access to basic infrastructure. Houses should have at least two rooms and decent surroundings. Verticality will be prioritized in order to increase density in urban centers. Mexico is already recognized as a world leader in the incorporation of sustainability criteria for low-income housing increasing property value. Transitioning from horizontal to vertical housing has certain technological, financial and profitability implications over the current business model. 21 21
IX. Urban sprawl containment and land reserves New Housing policy aims to: Take advantage of installed infrastructure and urban equipment in the cities Exploit vacant properties and urban empty land Optimize land use increasing density and developing better recreational spaces Improve inner-city neighborhoods by reusing deteriorated urban space Dignified and sustainable housing Competitive cities 22 22
IX. Urban sprawl containment and land reserves The current Administration intends to maintain criteria on urban perimeters U1 Defined based on employment indicators (CONAPO) and demarcations by the Ministry (SEDATU before SEDESOL) U2 Defined based on availability of services and infrastructure (source INEGI 2010) DUIS -> DC U3 U2 U3 City perimeter growth based on population U1 In order to consolidate cities, in 2013 an interinstitutional group will evaluate viability of land reserve inventory in order to determines a new U3 perimeter in July. Land reserves will be registered between March and April 15th 2013 SEDATU will design initiatives to promote and support Certified Developments (before DUIS) 23 23
IX. Urban sprawl containment and land reserves Purpose.- «Transform urban development into a sustainable and intelligent development model Step 1 Based on voluntary registration of land reserves by homebuilders, there will be a National Housing Registry processed by RUV (called RENARET) Reserves will be classified according to their current status: R1. Non residential reserves with no infrastructure R2. Residential reserves with no infrastructure R3. Residential reserves with infrastructure R4. Residential reserves with I infrastructure and housing production R1 Land Residential Infrastructure Housing R2 R3 R4 Based on currently available information, approximately 80% of land reserves are geared to urban housing 24 24
IX. Urban sprawl containment and land reserves Step 2 SEDATU and CONAVI will analyze layers of information in order to determine viability of land reserves a. Employment b. Ground transportation c. Protected areas d. Land use e. Risk factors f. Water availability g. Topography Additional layers of information will be used to define areas targeted for expansion based on expected population growth 25 25
IX. Urban sprawl containment and land reserves Example based on land reserve registry 26
IX. Urban sprawl containment and land reserves Example based on land reserve registry DUIS->DC R1 Nueva U3 R1 27
X. New institutional framework and coordination with state and local authorities The new Ministry for Agarian, Territorial and Urban Development (SEDATU) will now lead urban and housing policies and agencies Coherent programs and actions regarding: - Land - Funding - Hounsing - Infrastructure - Environment Standardized criteria and procedures Synergies Closer coordination with state and local governments to - Standardize legal frameworks - Improve management capabilities - Red-tape reduction - Modernization of property registries - Sign cooperation agreements to alling federal and local urban and housing policy 28 28
FINAL REMARKS The Federal Government acknowledges the housing industry s fundamental role in the domestic economy and for the achievement of national goals The new urban development model will be adopted in a context of certainty. President Peña Nieto has repeatedly stated that the housing train will keep forward Housing agencies will not change operating rules for the remainder of 2013 A new set of rules for 2014 will be announced six months in advance Existing urban perimeters used by CONAVI will be maintained; there will be no harming retroactive initiatives The new National Private Land Reserves Registry in under construction. It will allow the government to analyze suitability of new perimeters for urban growth A two-year transition period has been established so the industry can adapt to the new urban development and housing model The National Development Plan 2013-2018 and Urban Development and Housing programs will be released during the second semester of this year, from which strategies will be designed to materialize the National Policy s main goals 29 29
Appendix 30
Agency RESULTS 2012 Housing acquisition Improvements and Autoproduction Total New units Used units extensions Loans / Subsidies Investment Loans / Subsidies Investment Loans / Subsidies Investment Loans / Subsidies Investment Loans / Subsidies (thousand) (Million pesos) (thousand) (Million pesos) (thousand) (Million pesos) (thousand) (Million pesos) (thousand) Investment (Million pesos) 281 70,966.2 145 38,112.2 153 * NA NA 578 109,078.4 49 24,709.0 15 7,721.0 0.1 24.5 NA NA 64 32,454.5 36 1,336.0 NA NA 98 1,329.6 NA NA 121 2,665.6 102 4,936.0 15 780.6 72 681.7 20 975.9 209 7,374.2 2 638.4 1 273.6 66 1,358.0 2 58.0 71 2,328.0 Banca 104 82,771 ND ND 7 7,825 NA NA 111 90,595 Sofoles 1 427 ND ND ND ND NA NA 1 427 185,784 46,887.4 11,219 1,034 244,923 Source: CONAVI based on figures from each institution.* The Renueva Tu Hogar or Improve your Home Program is 100% bank funding ** CONAVI self-construction includes self construction, land with services, and Renovation. Note: FONHAPO does not break down housing programs in acquisition. 31
Housing initiatives 2012 vs. expected 2013 Agency Loans / Subsidies 2012 2013 Investment Loans / Subsidies Investment (thousand) (Million pesos) (thousand) (Million pesos) 490 118,000 545 123,471 75 56,000 75 38,021 98 2,171 84 2,132 181 7,496 165 5,788 ND ND 164 5,000 Financial entities 138 97,298 101 89,260 280,965 263,672 32
Mexican homebuilding public company performance 700 50,000 600 500 45,000 40,000 35,000 400 300 200 100 IH IPC 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 23/12/2010 04/03/2011 18/05/2011 27/07/2011 06/10/2011 20/12/2011 29/02/2012 15/05/2012 24/07/2012 02/10/2012 14/12/2012 27/02/2013 IPC: Mexican Stock Exchange Index IH: Habitat Index tracking homebuilders stocks http://mx.investing.com/indices/habita-historical-data http://www.banxico.org.mx/sieinternet/consultardirectoriointernetaction.do?accion=consultarcuadro&idcuadro=cf103§or=7&locale=es 33
Number of housing starts 600,000 500,000 Housing units 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: RUV 34
Housing developers 2009 2012 Homebuilders 419 554 Source: INEGI Economic Census, 2009; National Construction Company Census 2012. 1,364 Housing developers in RUV 1,417 1,304 1,296 1,159 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: RUV 35
Investment in housing acquisition: new and used homes, housing starts and self production 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Investment housing acquisition (millions of pesos 2012) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* Source: CONAVI with data from each institution. Includes new and used homes, construction on owned property, minimal housing, and self construction. Data for 2012 Infonavit, Fovisste and SHF are as of December and others until November. 36
Used homes % of loans for used homes 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 INFONAVIT FOVISSSTE Source: CONAVI with data from each institution. Used home financing as % of total home financing.. 37