-217 Table of Contents UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication ( 217).. 4 Population... 8 1.1 Metro Vancouver Population 27 Present 1.2 Metro Vancouver Population Growth Rate (%yoy) 1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration 1.4 British Columbia International Migration 1.5 British Columbia Net Migration 1.6 BC s Population Growth Breakdown Economic Indicators..... 9 2.1 Bank of Canada 5 Year Posted Rate (%) 2.2 Consumer Price Index, Canada, BC, Metro Vancouver 2.3 Metro Vancouver Labour Force Totals: 27 Present 2.4 BC Unemployment Rate 2.5 Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 27 Present 2.6 Canada GDP: 27 Present Economic Indicators.......1 3.1 Budgetary Balance - Canada 3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 27 Present 3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars) 3.4 BC Bankruptcies 3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close) 3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded Housing Economic Indicators... 11 4.1 Homeowner Protection Office Single Family Registrations 4.2 Homeowner Protection Office Multi-Family Registrations Housing Economic Indicators... 12 5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts 5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts 5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts 5.4 Residential Building Permit Values, Metro Vancouver 5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index, BC, Metro Vancouver 5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates New Home Data: Concrete Condominiums.. 13 6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales 6.3 Concrete Condominium Inventory Levels 6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels Table of Contents Page 2
-217 New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums... 14 7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales 7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Inventory Levels 7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels New Home Data: Townhomes... 15 8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing 8.2 Townhome Sales 8.3 Townhome Inventory Levels 8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels UA Affordability Index: New Home Data.. 16 9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums 9.2 UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums 9.3 UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver... 17 1.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 1.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices 1.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 1.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices 1.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 1.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board.... 18 11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 11.2 Apartment Re-Sale Prices 11.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 11.4 Attached Re-Sale Prices 11.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 11.6 Single Detached Re-Sales and Prices New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments... 19 12.1 Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver 12.2 Vacancy Rates by Region 12.3 Average Rent per Square Foot 12.4 Currently Available Average Rent per Square Foot 12.5 Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages Methodology & Definitions. 2 Definitions Analytical Methods Other Assumptions Sources... 21 Sources Table of Contents Page 3
-217 UDI State of the Market Quarterly Publication Welcome to the latest edition of UDI Pacific s State of the Market quarterly publication. The -217 State of the Market report provides up-to-date statistics and trends on the new home and re-sale housing markets as well as the amalgamation of relevant economic statistics that impact the housing market. The report also includes statistics on the newer purpose-built rental market in Metro Vancouver, and the UDI/Urban Analytics Housing Affordability Index which is derived from Urban Analytics New Home Source Live database as well as BC Housing s new home registry statistics. Population Growth & Housing Starts 12 Metro Vancouver Housing Starts and Population Change (15+) 1 8 6 4 2 84 8167 66 62 463 4947 Housing Starts Population Change (15+) 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 214 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 215 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 216 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 217 217 The table above shows the trend of Metro Vancouver s housing starts and population change over the past four years. As of -217, overall housing starts are up 77 percent from the same quarter last year and up significantly (by 82 percent) from the five year average. The increase in housing starts this quarter can be attributed to a rise in apartment starts in the Inner Metro region, particularly in Burnaby. Overall apartment starts this quarter (2,995) are up 164 percent from the same quarter last year and double the five year average. Metro Vancouver s net population change was by 6,2 residents, which is down six percent from -216 and is down 26 percent from the five year average. This quarter saw the smallest net population increase since -211. 3.5 Metro Vancouver Population Change (15+) per Housing Start 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.7 1. 1.3.8.5 213 Q1 214 Q2 214 214 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 215 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 216 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 217 217 The previous chart shows Metro Vancouver s population growth to housing starts. The current ratio of.8 is at the lowest over the past four years. It is down by more than half from last quarter and down considerably from the 1.4 recorded in the same quarter last year. This ratio is considered favorable to buyers/tenants assuming that it persists, but note that this is Metro Vancouver wide. There are still areas within the region where this ratio is not favorable and continues to be considered unaffordable. Furthermore, the vast majority of previously referenced new housing starts have been sold prior to construction start. Table of Contents Page 4
-217 Local Economic Factors Over the quarter, some of the most important factors to affect the overall housing market in Metro Vancouver include uncertainties surrounding provincial government intervention in the near future as well as the impact of a further rate hike by the Bank of Canada. In October, the five-year conventional mortgage rate increased to 4.99%. This will further impact the purchasing power of buyers looking to finance their home and will be further tested as borrowers will have to qualify at a rate 2% higher than the rate offered in a mortgage contract as of January 218. Despite the anticipation of the budget announcement in February 217, Metro Vancouver has continued to see consistent demand in the new multi-family home market limited primarily by available inventory. Demand will likely continue as Metro Vancouver remains a desirable location as evidenced by a recent record in new quarterly international immigrants. Metro Vancouver s new home market saw increasing sales due to a near-record number of new projects brought to market over the quarter. Across the region, there were 37 additional multi-family projects actively selling this quarter, second only to the introduction of 42 new projects in Q1-213. Paired with persisting demand, this led to a combined total of 4,276 new multi-family sales recorded in -217. This is similar to the same quarter last year but up nine percent from the five year average. 2,554 new multi-family homes were available to purchase as of - 217, which is down by 25 percent from the same quarter last year and remains near historic lows. Furthermore, of those homes available to purchase, only 8 were move-in ready. The continuation of low inventory remains a significant factor in the price increases seen in Metro Vancouver. Global Economic Factors Cross border trade continues to veer towards protectionist policy with NAFTA negotiations ongoing as well as the continuation of the softwood lumber dispute. Final duties on Canadian lumber shipped to the US are to go into effect at the end of December, with an average duty reported as 21 per on Canadian softwood lumber by mid- December. However, lumber prices reaching their highest since 24 will alleviate some of these costs. The Canadian dollar also reached a high of.82 CAD relative to the US dollar in mid-september but dropped in value, briefly reducing affordability of Canadian real estate over the quarter. We hope that you enjoy the most recent edition of the report and find it to be informative, helpful and convenient. As always, we welcome any feedback or comments on the publication. Sincerely, Urban Analytics Inc. Michael Ferreira Jon Bennest Table of Contents Page 5
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-217 Population 1.1 Metro Vancouver Population 27 - Present 1.2 Metro Vancouver Population Growth Rate (%) 2,25 2,2 1.% 2,15.75% Thousands 2,1 2,5 2, 1,95.5%.25% 1,9 1,85.% 1,8 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 -.25% 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 1.3 British Columbia Interprovincial Migration 1.4 British Columbia International Migration 9, 7, 5, 3, 1, -1, -3, 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 1.5 British Columbia Net Migration 1.6 British Columbia Growth Breakdown 25, 2, BC's Population Growth Break Down 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 217 Births 1,932 1,682 11,125 11,723 15, 1, In-Migrants Immigrants Total Net Increase 1,96 14,527 22,76 14,272 7,163 1,631 1,163 8,77 28,191 35,84 43,364 34,72 5, -5, 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Deaths Out-Migrants Emigrants Total Net Decrease Net Increase/Decrease 9,752 1,693 8,993 8,847 6,84 11,1 17,42 13,729 3,77 3,164 2,833 2,91 2,263 24,858 28,868 25,486 7,928 1,982 14,496 9,216 Metro Vancouver s population has continued to grow steadily with an estimated 2,26,5 residents in -217: up by just under 3, residents year-over-year and up 6,2 from last quarter. While the number of residents has increased from last year, Metro Vancouver s quarterly growth rate has remained relatively similar. In -217, Metro Vancouver s quarterly population growth rate was recorded at.28%, which is down from.38% last quarter, and down slightly from the.3% recorded in -216. Net migration to BC increased by 21,42 residents as of the most recent update (-217) of which 97% were international migrants. Over the decade, quarterly interprovincial migration to BC has been net positive with the exception of -21 and -212. As of the most recent update (-217), interprovincial migration into the province is up by only 543 residents. This total is the lowest recorded in four years. Table of Contents Page 8
Economic Indicators -217 2.1 Bank of Canada 5 Year Posted Rate (%) 2.2 Consumer Price Index 8% 135 Canada Metro Vancouver 7% 13 125 6% 12 115 5% 11 15 4% 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 1 95 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 2.3 Metro Vancouver: Labour Totals 27 - Present 2.4 British Columbia Unemployment Rate 1,55 9% 1,5 1,45 8% Thousands 1,4 1,35 1,3 1,25 1,2 1,15 7% 6% 5% 4% 1,1 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 3% 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 2.5 Retail Trade, Sales by NAICS: 27 - Present 2.6 Canada GDP: 27 - Present $22 $1,9 $2 $1,825 Billions $18 $16 $14 BIllions $1,75 $1,675 $1,6 $1,525 $12 $1,45 $1,375 $1 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 $1,3 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 The Bank of Canada s 5-year conventional mortgage rate has increased to 4.99% by the end of -217 and are now the same as Q1-214. After no raise since Q2-215, the current rate follows two consecutive raises in -217 and one in -217. Major banks in Canada are now offering 5-year fixed term rates between 2.99% and 3.44%. BC s unemployment rate has continued to trend downwards, reaching 4.1% as of -217: down from 5.1% in -216 and down from 5.7% in -215. The size of Metro Vancouver s labour force rose by 5,3 workers during -217 to a total of 1,482,3: up 3.4% year-over-year and up 5% since -215. Canada s GDP rose for the fifth consecutive quarter to just under $19 Billion as of the most recent update (-217). A total of $21.4 Billion in retail sales were recorded for the most recent update, which is up 2% from last quarter and up 14% from the same quarter last year. Table of Contents Page 9
Economic Indicators -217 3.1 Budgetary Balance, Canada 3.2 BC Investment in New Construction: 27 - Present Billions $6 $4 $2 $ -$2 -$4 -$6 -$8 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216-217 Millions $2, $1,8 $1,6 $1,4 $1,2 $1, $8 $6 $4 $2 $ 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 3.3 Price of Crude Oil (US Dollars) 3.4 British Columbia Bankruptcies $14 $12 2,9 $1 2,4 $8 $6 $4 $2 Thousands 1,9 1,4 $ 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 9 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 3.5 Dow Jones Industrial Average (Close) 3.6 Toronto Stock Exchange, Value of Shares Traded 26, 24, 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Billions $2 $175 $15 $125 $1 $75 $5 $25 $ 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 As of the most recent update (-217), Canada s budget recorded a $24.5 Billion deficit, which is down 31% from the previous quarter and also down 35% from - 216. BC investment in new multi-family construction was $1.57 Billion as of the most recent update (-217) which is down 1% year-over year but is up 31% from - 215. After a reaching a low of approximately $3 USD per barrel in Q1-216, the price of oil has trended upwards to $61 USD per barrel by the end of -217. This is up 16% from the same quarter last year, and up 67% from -215. As of the most recent update (-217), total bankruptcies in BC are at their lowest (961) since 29: down 15% year-over-year and down 32% from -215. After nine consecutive quarterly increases, the DIJA reached a new record high of 24,719 points by -217, which is up 25% from -216. The TSX surpassed the 16, mark for the first time in October 217, closing at just over the 16,2 mark by the end of -217. Table of Contents Page 1
-217 Housing Economic Indicators 4.1 New Single Family Registrations 4.2 New Multi-Family Registrations Vancouver Proper Inner Metro Outer Metro 7 6 5 4 3 2 212 213 214 215 216 217 Vancouver Proper Inner Metro Outer Metro 34 3 26 22 18 14 1 6 2 212 213 214 215 216 217 All new homes in the province must be registered with BC Housing. The registration data is collected by BC Housing in the public registry. The majority of registered new homes are enrolled with home warranty insurance which protects against construction defects. The registration of new homes must occur prior to the issuance of building permits and housing starts. The new home registrations measure residential construction activities at the beginning of a project before construction commences. A study has been conducted by the Bank of Canada in collaboration with BC Housing to assess whether new home registration data under the Homeowner Protection Act can be used as a leading indicator for economic activity in B.C. The research finds that quarterly increases in new registrations for single-detached homes have statistically significant predictive content for growth in real GDP over the next one to three quarters, and provide stronger signals compared to housing starts and building permits over this forecast horizon. The research report has been published under Staff Discussion Papers on the website of the Bank of Canada. http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/216/2/sdp216-3.pdf - Single includes the new single detached homes enrolled with home warranty insurance or with approved Owner Builder Authorizations. - Multi includes the new homes in multi-unit buildings (2 or more dwelling units) enrolled with home warranty insurance and does not include new homes in multi-unit rental buildings (purpose built rentals). Note: Some minor adjustments may be made to the figures over time as registrations are withdrawn or cancelled from home warranty insurance from time to time. 1,278 single-family home registrations were recorded in -217 which is down 3% from the same quarter last year and down 12% from -215. All three regions (Inner Metro, Outer Metro and the City of Vancouver) recorded declines in single-family home registrations compared to last quarter and to - 216. The region with the largest year-over-year decline in single-family home registrations is Inner Metro: down 5% from -216 and down 29% when compared to - 215. In -217, total single-family home registrations across Metro Vancouver were 4% below the 5-year average (1,325). There was a total of 3,816 multi-family home registrations in -217 which is down 2% from the same quarter last year but up 7% from -215. The decline from -216 is primarily due to significantly lower multi-family registrations recorded for Inner Metro and the City of Vancouver. 54% of multi-family home registrations in -217 were located in Inner Metro and 36% were located in Outer Metro. Table of Contents Page 11
-217 Housing Economic Indicators 5.1 CMHC Townhome Starts 5.2 CMHC Apartment Starts 84 77 7 63 56 49 42 35 28 21 14 7 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 2475 225 225 18 1575 135 1125 9 675 45 225 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 5.3 CMHC Single Family Starts 5.4 Residential Building Permits Metro Vancouver 6 5 4 3 2 1 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Millions $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 5.5 Statistics Canada Housing Price Index 5.6 CMHC Rental Housing Vacancy Rates 115 11 15 Metro Vancouver BC Vancouver Tri-Cities/Ridge Meadows Richmond/Delta North Shore Surrey/Langley/White Rock Burnaby/New Westminster 1 1.2% 95 9 85 8 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 1.%.8%.6%.4%.2%.% 8,7 new housing starts were recorded in -217 which is up significantly over the last two years: up 76% and 89% from the -216 and -215, respectively. The largest contributor was condominium starts (5,774), whose total has nearly doubled from -216 and is more than double from -215. The significant rise in condominium starts this quarter is due to an increase within the Inner Metro region (2,995) of which more than half were located in Burnaby. Single family homes accounted for 16% of total new housing starts in -217, which is up 48% and 38% from -216 and -215, respectively. There were 1,36 new townhome starts recorded in -217 which is up 23% from -216 and 47% from -215. This is the highest total recorded in 7 years. The majority of new townhome starts continue to be recorded in the Outer Metro region, with 788 recorded in -217. CHMC rental vacancy rates released in -217 show an average vacancy rate of.87% for the municipalities shown, which is up slightly from.53% from last year. Overall vacancy rates are still extremely low throughout all Metro Vancouver sub-markets. Table of Contents Page 12
-217 New Home Data: Condominiums 6.1 Concrete Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 6.2 Concrete Condominium Sales 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 6.3 Concrete Condominium Released & Unsold Inventory Levels 6.4 Concrete Condominium Standing Inventory Levels 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 A total of 18 new concrete condominium projects were actively selling across Metro Vancouver in -217. This is up by 2 projects compared to the same quarter last year but down by 21 projects from -215. Concrete condominium sales totaled 2,645 in -217 which represents an 18% decline from the same quarter in 216. The decline in concrete condominium sales across Metro Vancouver is attributed mostly to the decrease in sales in the Inner Metro region, which has been limited by a diminishing supply of available inventory. New concrete condominium sales in the Inner Metro region in -217 (814) are down 69% from -216 and down 61% from -215, while available inventory has declined 7% and 76% compared to the same quarter of 216 and 215. Total released and unsold concrete condominium inventory in Metro Vancouver in -217 (1,476) has increased by 39% from last quarter but is below levels in 216 (by 26%) and 215 (by 49%). However, the total available supply of concrete condominiums is 58% below the 5-year average of 3,526. Note that there are only 31 concrete condominium units in Metro Vancouver that are completed and unsold. 28 of these 31 units are located in one building in New Westminster. 1: Released and unsold inventory includes new home product available for sale that is pre-construction, under construction, and completed. Standing Inventory refers unsold units that are complete and move-in ready. Table of Contents Page 13
-217 New Home Data: Wood Frame Condominiums 7.1 Wood Frame Condominium Projects Actively Marketing 7.2 Wood Frame Condominium Sales 6 5 4 3 2 1 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 7.3 Wood Frame Condominium Released & Unsold Inventory Levels 7.4 Wood Frame Condominium Standing Inventory Levels 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 48 new wood frame condominium projects were actively selling across Metro Vancouver in -217. This is up by eight projects in the same quarter of 216 but down from 11 projects in -215. A total of 851 new wood frame condominium sales were recorded in -217 in Metro Vancouver. Of these, 518 were recorded in Outer Metro, 311 in Inner Metro, and 22 in the City of Vancouver. Although total sales are down from last quarter, they were up 26% from -216 and up 1% from -215. A total of 384 new wood frame condominium units were released and unsold in Metro Vancouver at the end of -217. This total remains at near record lows and is down 48% from the same quarter last year and down 73% from -215. It is also 88% below the peak of 3,32 units recorded in -213 and 79% below the five-year average of 1,823. New wood frame condominium standing inventory in Metro Vancouver remains at a near record low of 19 units as of -217. This number has remained under 5 units since Q2-216, and is down 98% from the recent peak recorded in -213. Table of Contents Page 14
-217 New Home Data: Townhomes 8.1 Townhome Projects Actively Marketing 8.2 Townhome Sales 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 12 15 9 75 6 45 3 15 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 8.3 Townhome Released & Unsold Inventory Levels 8.4 Townhome Standing Inventory Levels 9 75 6 45 3 15 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 There were 83 new townhome projects actively selling in Metro Vancouver in -217. This total is up 28% from -216 and is now consistent with the five-year average (83). 57% of new actively selling townhome projects in -217 were located in the Outer Metro region. Total new townhome sales recorded in -217 (78) were up 24% from last quarter and up 7% from -216. 71% of the total new townhome sales this quarter were located in the Outer Metro region. Total released and unsold new townhome inventory across Metro Vancouver (694 units) increased by 57% from last quarter which was due to an increase in new projects launching in the Outer Metro region. Total released and unsold townhome inventory in Metro Vancouver is up 2% compared to the same quarter last year and up 22% compared to -215. There were only 3 completed and unsold new townhomes available to purchase at the end of -217. Overall standing inventory levels have been near extreme lows since late 215. Table of Contents Page 15
-217 UA Affordability Index: New Home Data 9.1 UA Affordability Index: New Concrete Condominiums Outer Metro Inner Metro Vancouver 7.1% 73.6% 73.6% 74.3% 76.4% 76.5% 77.1% 75.% 73.6% 73.7% 72.4% 73.1% 51.8% 55.3% 54.4% 55.4% 38.6% 4.9% 38.6% 36.3% 53.4% 51.5% 52.6% 5.7% 31.6% 31.5% 29.7% 2.9% 44.1% 12.9% 42.2% 34.4% 37.2% 9.% 1.1% 9.5% 55.1% 39.5% 31.% 27.2% 29.5% 29.7% 4.7% 6.7% 9.% Q2 214 214 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 215 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 216 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 217 217 9.2 UA Affordability Index: New Wood Frame Condominiums Outer Metro Inner Metro Vancouver 71.8% 59.4% 39.5% 75.% 72.5% 73.3% 71.7% 73.9% 73.4% 6.% 59.5% 63.2% 61.8% 62.3% 61.9% 39.9% 36.7% 4.7% 44.4% 4.3% 38.2% 73.9% 57.1% 3.6% 68.2% 66.9% 66.4% 67.4% 49.1% 48.1% 54.5% 52.7% 26.8% 29.3% 29.6% 29.4% 57.7% 56.7% 54.8% 47.7% 39.9% 42.1% 2.5% 33.2% 26.4% Q2 214 214 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 215 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 216 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 217 217 9.3 UA Affordability Index: New Townhomes Outer Metro Inner Metro Vancouver 65.7% 46.9% 22.9% 7.% 67.7% 69.7% 68.5% 51.7% 51.1% 5.6% 59.% 34.7% 32.8% 24.5% 27.4% 67.9% 64.4% 64.7% 49.2% 47.9% 49.3% 22.4% 27.3% 32.2% 57.9% 36.8% 11.3% 53.7% 55.1% 46.4% 47.7% 52.7% 32.6% 32.9% 36.2% 36.6% 39.3% 9.% 8.4% 1.3% 11.% 4.2% 53.2% 28.3% 7.1% Q2 214 214 214 Q1 215 Q2 215 215 215 Q1 216 Q2 216 216 216 Q1 217 Q2 217 217 217 The -217 affordability index reflects household income data from the 216 Census released in September 217 which showed a larger proportion of households reporting higher incomes in certain regions. The lowest five-year fixed interest rates offered by major Canadian banks remained similar to the previous quarter, ranging from 2.99% to 3.44%. The affordability of most new product forms across Metro Vancouver decreased relative to last quarter. Affordability improved slightly for concrete condominiums in the City of Vancouver, townhomes in Outer Metro, and wood frame condominiums in Inner Metro. Note that the increase in affordability for new concrete condominiums in the City of Vancouver is due to a number of new project launches in East Vancouver this past quarter. A significant decline in affordability of new concrete condominiums in Outer Metro over recent quarters can be attributed to price increases and recent project launches in the South Surrey/White Rock sub-market. Table of Contents Page 16
Re-Sale Data: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver -217 1.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 1.2 Apartment Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV) 7, Sales Listings $7 6, $6 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Thousands $5 $4 $3 $2 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 $1 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 1.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 1.4 Attached Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV) 2,5 Sales Listings $9 $8 2, $7 1,5 1, 5 Thousands $6 $5 $4 $3 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 $2 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 1.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 1.6 Single Detached Re-Sale Benchmark Price (GV) 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, Sales Listings Thousands $1,7 $1,5 $1,3 $1,1 $9 $7 1, $5 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 $3 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 There were 2,115 single family home listings, 3,934 apartment listings, and 1,224 townhome listings recorded in Greater Vancouver in -217. Listings are down 24% for single family homes, down 2% for apartments, and down 2% for townhomes when compared to the same quarter last year. A total of 7,273 re-sales were recorded in Greater Vancouver in -217. This total is down 1% compared to the same quarter last year. The average benchmark prices of all housing types in Greater Vancouver are as follows for -217: $1,67,8 for single family homes, $83,767 for townhomes, and $648,533 for apartments. The average benchmark price has increased by 27% for apartments, 21% for townhomes, and up 6% for single family homes when compared to the same quarter last year. The benchmark prices for single family homes, apartments, and townhomes are currently at record highs. Table of Contents Page 17
-217 Re-Sale Data: Fraser Valley Board 11.1 Apartment Re-Sales and Listings 11.2 Apartment Re-Sale Average Prices Sales Active Listings 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Thousands $38 $36 $34 $32 $3 $28 $26 $24 $22 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 11.3 Attached Re-Sales and Listings 11.4 Attached Re-Sale Average Prices Sales Active Listings 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Thousands $61 $56 $51 $46 $41 $36 $31 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 11.5 Single Detached Re-Sales and Listings 11.6 Single Detached Re-Sale Average Prices Sales Active Listings 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Thousands $1,2 $1,1 $1, $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) recorded 1,198 single family home re-sales, 986 townhome re-sales, and 1,164 apartment re-sales in -217. Single family sales were up 23%, townhome sales were up 24% and apartment sales were up 47% compared to the same quarter last year. Active listings for all product forms at the end of -217 were as follows: 986 single family home listings, 323 townhome listings, and 32 apartment listings. Active listings were down 25% for single family homes, down 3% for townhomes and down 2% for apartments when compared to the same quarter last year. The average benchmark prices recorded in -217 were as follows: $1,121,983 for single family homes, $577,398 for townhomes, and $382,868 for apartments. Benchmark prices have increased by 1%, 21%, and 34%, respectively compared to -216 and represent record highs across all product forms. Note that the average benchmark price for apartments was 8% higher than last quarter. Benchmark apartment prices are up 58% from -214. Table of Contents Page 18
New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments -217 12.1 Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver* 12.2 Vacancy Rates by Region 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 C total WF total TH total Vacancy Rate Occupancy Rate Vancouver 2.31% Outer Metro 1.36% Inner Metro 2.63% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% 12.3 Average Rent Per Square Foot 12.4 Currently Available Average Rent Per Square Foot Concrete PSF Woodframe PSF Townhome PSF Concrete PSF Woodframe PSF Townhome PSF $3. $2.5 $2. $4. $3.5 $3. $2.5 $1.5 $1. $.5 $2. $1.5 $1. $.5 $- Inner Metro PSF Outer Metro PSF Vancouver PSF $- 12.5 Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Concrete Units Wood Frame Units Townhome Units Page generated with NHSLive Rental data. For more detailed rental information, contact info@urbananalytics.ca for subscription options. *The majority of the Rental Apartment data referred to herein as newer purpose-built rental relates to purpose built rental apartment buildings completed since 21. There were a total of 8,534 newer actively leasing or fully leased purpose-built rental units recorded across Metro Vancouver as of the end of -217. 5,966 units are located in the City of Vancouver, 1,978 are in Inner Metro, and 59 are located in Outer Metro. Average vacancy rates for newer purpose-built rental buildings in Metro Vancouver were reported as 2.32% in -217 (City of Vancouver: 2.31%; Inner Metro: 2.63%; Outer Metro: 1.36%). Average rents for newer purpose-built concrete rental units were $2.82 and $2.96 per square foot in Inner Metro and Vancouver, respectively. Average rents for newer purpose-built wood frame rental units were $2,7, $2.5, $1.63, and $2.7 per square foot in the City of Vancouver, Inner Metro, and Outer Metro, respectively. A total of 17,6 purpose-built rental units are in the planning stages throughout Metro Vancouver, with 55% of these units planned for the City of Vancouver. 1: Sample size of 8,534 units over 91 newer rental apartment and townhome projects in Metro Vancouver. 2: Refer to methodology on page 19. Table of Contents Page 19
-217 Methodology & Definitions Affordability Index Definitions Inner Metro: West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster, Richmond, South Delta, Coquitlam, Port Moody & Port Coquitlam. Outer Metro: Langley, North Delta, Surrey, White Rock, Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge. Vancouver: Downtown Vancouver, Vancouver West and Vancouver East. Prices Prices for the new home market were collected from actively selling new multi-family projects in Metro Vancouver. Re-sale prices were collected from the Real Estate Boards of Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley (with median and benchmark prices used). Income The Index uses household income information from Statistics Canada data from the 216 Census Survey. Assumed Down Payments Wood frame and concrete condominiums: 2% Townhomes: 3% The reason for the difference is the assumption that townhome buyers are more likely to be move-up buyers with equity built up in their existing property. Analytical Methods Five year, fixed rate 3-year amortization mortgages were used, taking an average of the best rates at eight banks at the time of analysis. Other Assumptions The affordability index assumes that a person can afford a maximum of 32 percent of their gross family income to go toward mortgage payments. Additional Methodology & Definitions New Home Data: Purpose-Built Rental Apartments Analytical Methods Chart 1: Apartment Rental Stock in Metro Vancouver: Sum of move-in ready units by product type. Move-in ready is defined as those projects that are Fully Leased, as well as those that are Active (actively leasing) with standing inventory. Chart 2: Vacancy Rates by Region: Projects included are those that are move-in ready, as defined above. Chart 3: Average Rent per Square Foot: Average rent for fully leased projects only. The average per region is based on average dollar per square foot prices of each sub-market. Chart 4: Currently Available Average Rent per Square Foot: Average rent for currently available units of fully leased projects. The average per region is based on average dollar per square foot prices of each sub-market. Chart 5: Rental Units per Municipality, in Planning Stages: Total units of every project in the contemplated section of the Rental database, by product type. Table of Contents Page 2
Sources Sources 1.1 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 1.2 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 1.3 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.4 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.5 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 1.6 - Stats Canada Quarterly Demographic Estimates 2.1 - Bank of Canada 2.2 - BC Stats Consumer Price Index 2.3 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 2.4 - Statistics Canada Monthly Labour Force Survey 2.5 - Statistics Canada Retail Trade by Province 2.6 - Statistics Canada Gross Domestic Product 3.1 - Stats Canada Revenue, Expenditure & Budget 3.2 - Statistics Canada Investment in New Housing 3.3 - Index Mundi (Monthly Spot Oil Prices) 3.4 - Industry Canada Insolvency Statistics 3.5 - Statistics Canada Stock Market Statistics 3.6 - Statistics Canada Stock Market Statistics 4.1 BC Housing (data collected by the HPO branch) - New Single Family Registrations 4.2 BC Housing (data collected by the HPO branch) - New Multi-Family Registrations 5.1 - CMHC Housing Now Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.2 - CMHC Housing Now Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.3 - CMHC Housing Now Vancouver & Abbotsford 5.4 - Statistics Canada Building Permits 5.5 - Statistics Canada New Housing Price Indexes 5.6 - CMHC Rental Market Report 6.1 - UA New Home Source Database 6.2 - UA New Home Source Database 6.3 - UA New Home Source Database 6.4 - UA New Home Source Database 7.1 - UA New Home Source Database 7.2 - UA New Home Source Database 7.3 - UA New Home Source Database 7.4 - UA New Home Source Database 8.1 - UA New Home Source Database 8.2 - UA New Home Source Database 8.3 - UA New Home Source Database 8.4 - UA New Home Source Database 9.1 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 9.2 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 9.3 - UA New Home Source Database, Stats Canada, Bank Websites 1.1 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.2 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.3 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.4 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.5 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 1.6 - REBGV Monthly Statistics 11.1 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.2 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.3 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.4 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.5 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 11.6 - FVREB Monthly Statistics 12.1 UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.2 UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.3 UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.4 UA New Home Source Rental Database 12.5 UA New Home Source Rental Database Table of Contents Page 21